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Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

Jayjay

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From the German invasion of Czechlosavakia to the surrender of Germany took about five years. Pootie's idea that Ukraine would quickly collapes like France did when Germany attacked failed. Russia, short term, has already failed. Ukraine is now getting weapons from the West, while Russia is now having to use 50 year old T-60 tanks. Time may not be on Russia's side. If Russia decides to win it must use long range weapons to utterly destroy all of Ukraine,leaving it a smoking crater, when will NATO decide that is unacceptable?
Well there's the rub. Russia doesn't "win" if they leave Ukraine a smoking crater.

This is a war over resources after all. Oil, natural gas, and the infrastructure to deliver those commodities to market. It's not a coincidence that Putin wants the eastern part of Ukraine, and it's not because a lot of ethnic Russians live there. It's about what's underneath their feet.
I think you're wrong. Russia has already plenty of natural resources. And it's bombing all the industrial infrastructure to bits.

For Russia, it's a perfectly acceptable outcome if Ukraine becomes a smoking crater. It's more about denying these resources to Ukraine, than getting them for itself. What Russia wants is control of the coastline, and land connection to Transnistria and Moldova.
This assumes that Putin looked at Russia's large supply of natural resources and said "you know what? We've got enough. No need to seek out any more. We're satisfied."

No, this was a brazen attempt to quickly overthrow the pro-western government in Ukraine, install a Kremlin puppet regime, and exploit not just the gas and oil reserves, but maintain control over the pipelines and shipping so Russia can enrich themselves and "restore" their country to the "glory" Putin remembers from his days with the Soviet Union. He wanted Ukraine to be like Belarus...compliant.
Well, that was my point more or less. It's not about resources (though they may be nice to have), but compliance and control. And as far as resources and infrastructure go, the key is not to let them fall in Ukrainian hands, not that Russia has plans to exploit them.

I don't think Russia will be in any hurry to try to access Eastern Ukraine's natural gas resources. It would be a risky endeavour, when they have no idea when the war is going to flame up again, and there is a very high risk of sabotage from Ukrainian partisans. That's slightly less of an issue in the Black Sea, but Russia is going to be strapped for money to invest in new gas fields. And fossil fuels are going out of vogue anyway. Same goes for rebuilding the infrastructure. The local stooges in Mariupol already said that the Azovstal steel factory is not going to be rebuilt, but the city will be turned into a "tourist attraction". The industrial infrastructure that Russian bombed to the ground is going to stay there.
 

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I don't think Russia will be in any hurry to try to access Eastern Ukraine's natural gas resources. It would be a risky endeavour, when they have no idea when the war is going to flame up again, and there is a very high risk of sabotage from Ukrainian partisans. That's slightly less of an issue in the Black Sea, but Russia is going to be strapped for money to invest in new gas fields. And fossil fuels are going out of vogue anyway. Same goes for rebuilding the infrastructure. The local stooges in Mariupol already said that the Azovstal steel factory is not going to be rebuilt, but the city will be turned into a "tourist attraction". The industrial infrastructure that Russian bombed to the ground is going to stay there.

I think that the overall strategy is to corner and control the market for oil and gas. To that end, they have joined with OPEC to coordinate strategy so as not to undercut each other. Taking possible competition out of the market helps to accomplish the same goal, even if they don't exploit those resources themselves in the immediate future. I think that Putin would like to stabilize his Ukrainian acquisitions and find ways to defuse future retaliation for his actions. He knows that he isn't going to conquer all of Ukraine now, but he would seek to keep them in a state of weakness and instability for possible future gains. Like the tsars of the past, he sees Russia as the rightful ruler of "all the Russias", i.e. Orthodox territories to the west of Moscow. So he doesn't need to conquer them all at once, just dominate the region. Europe wants his oil and gas, so he'll try to find a way to make them restrain Ukraine's desire for revenge. France, Italy, and Germany have already shown signs of moving in that direction.
 

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Global arms industry getting shakeup by war in Ukraine – and China and US look like winners from Russia’s stumbles

Russia’s war in Ukraine is upending the global arms industry.

As the U.S. and its allies pour significant sums of money into arming Ukraine and Russia bleeds tanks and personnel, countries across the world are rethinking defense budgets, materiel needs and military relationships. Countries that historically have had low levels of defense spending such as Japan and Germany are bulking up, while nations that purchase most of their weapons from Russia are questioning their reliability and future delivery.

My research in this area suggests that, however this war eventually ends, the repercussions for the global defense industry, and for the countries whose companies dominate this sector, will be enormous. Here are four takeaways.
 

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Global arms industry getting shakeup by war in Ukraine – and China and US look like winners from Russia’s stumbles

Russia’s war in Ukraine is upending the global arms industry.

As the U.S. and its allies pour significant sums of money into arming Ukraine and Russia bleeds tanks and personnel, countries across the world are rethinking defense budgets, materiel needs and military relationships. Countries that historically have had low levels of defense spending such as Japan and Germany are bulking up, while nations that purchase most of their weapons from Russia are questioning their reliability and future delivery.

My research in this area suggests that, however this war eventually ends, the repercussions for the global defense industry, and for the countries whose companies dominate this sector, will be enormous. Here are four takeaways.
Russia has really messed itself up.
 

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Turkey could be one of the winners in terms of weapons industry. It's Bayraktar drones are already selling like hotcakes, and it might be able to remove or mitigate the arms sales sanctions from other NATO partners in exchange for letting Sweden and Finland into the club.
 

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This war has turned into a massive artillery duel. Unfortunately on that front, the Russians have the advantage. Ukraine is reporting massive artillery shortages and significantly less guns. We need to give them as much artillery as possible and as fast as possible.
 

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Russia has really messed itself up.

Just a technical detail, but Putler has really messed Russia up. Judging from barbie’s obliviousness, Russians don’t even know it yet.

I doubt that barbos is as oblivious as he appears to be here. [removed] and he doesn't really expect to convince the handful of people who interact with him here. The Russian population at large is probably more confused than convinced. There are certainly a lot of people who believe the official line, because it is safer to do so, if for no other reason. Younger people will be more skeptical than older people, because the rest of their lives will be affected more drastically as a result of this disastrous war. We aren't going to get an accurate picture of what public opinion is really like in Russia, because it is no longer possible to get accurate surveys of public opinion. Such surveys were difficult to get in the past, but the new punitive laws make them impossible now.
 
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Russian forces are continuing to deploy outdated military equipment to Ukraine to replace losses. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on June 9 that Russian forces are mining Kherson Oblast with mines from the 1950s to defend against recent Ukrainian counterattacks in northwestern Kherson Oblast.[1] The GUR stated that Russian forces moved these mines from Russia’s Rostov Oblast to the Kherson area despite the fact the mines were meant to be destroyed. The GUR claimed that some of the mines detonated during the transportation processes and killed Russian sappers from the 49th Combined Arms Army. The GUR’s report is consistent with previous statements that Russian forces are moving old and obsolete equipment to Ukraine to make up for equipment losses, including deploying T-62 tanks to the Melitopol area and pulling MLRS and 152mm howitzers from storage in Irkutsk, Siberia.[2]

Russian military command continues to face pervasive issues with force generation. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian officials in Luhansk Oblast have had to reduce their mobilization efforts due to widespread protests against aggressive mobilization efforts that have taken a toll on the labor market in Luhansk.[3] Attacks on Russian military recruitment offices are additionally continuing.[4] An unidentified assailant threw a Molotov cocktail at the military commissariat in Vladivostok, which is the eighteenth such reported attack on Russian territory since the beginning of the war. As Russian officials escalate mobilization efforts over the background of continued losses in Ukraine, they will continue to run the risk of instigating public dissent and pushback against such recruitment practices.
 

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Russian forces are continuing to deploy outdated military equipment to Ukraine to replace losses. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on June 9 that Russian forces are mining Kherson Oblast with mines from the 1950s to defend against recent Ukrainian counterattacks in northwestern Kherson Oblast.[1] The GUR stated that Russian forces moved these mines from Russia’s Rostov Oblast to the Kherson area despite the fact the mines were meant to be destroyed. The GUR claimed that some of the mines detonated during the transportation processes and killed Russian sappers from the 49th Combined Arms Army. The GUR’s report is consistent with previous statements that Russian forces are moving old and obsolete equipment to Ukraine to make up for equipment losses, including deploying T-62 tanks to the Melitopol area and pulling MLRS and 152mm howitzers from storage in Irkutsk, Siberia.[2]

Russian military command continues to face pervasive issues with force generation. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian officials in Luhansk Oblast have had to reduce their mobilization efforts due to widespread protests against aggressive mobilization efforts that have taken a toll on the labor market in Luhansk.[3] Attacks on Russian military recruitment offices are additionally continuing.[4] An unidentified assailant threw a Molotov cocktail at the military commissariat in Vladivostok, which is the eighteenth such reported attack on Russian territory since the beginning of the war. As Russian officials escalate mobilization efforts over the background of continued losses in Ukraine, they will continue to run the risk of instigating public dissent and pushback against such recruitment practices.
Yet, Russia keeps inching forward. I think ISW is a bit too optimistic in its outlook.
 

Loren Pechtel

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This war has turned into a massive artillery duel. Unfortunately on that front, the Russians have the advantage. Ukraine is reporting massive artillery shortages and significantly less guns. We need to give them as much artillery as possible and as fast as possible.

But Ukraine is able to counter-battery, Russia seems incapable of it. So long as they can keep feeding the guns the advantage is to them.
 

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Reminder to all participants:
Address the argument, not the person.
This is a place for discussion and debate, not insults, flaming and bullying.
Recall that for every person you reply to, there are 20 more reading what you wrote. You’re in public.

No name-calling, no personal attacks, no accusations of lying or trolling.
  • If you think someone is violating the TOU, use the report function, do not start peppering your posts with accusations.
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This is a place for discussion and debate - if your post is not doing that, don’t post it.
 

Jayjay

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This war has turned into a massive artillery duel. Unfortunately on that front, the Russians have the advantage. Ukraine is reporting massive artillery shortages and significantly less guns. We need to give them as much artillery as possible and as fast as possible.

But Ukraine is able to counter-battery, Russia seems incapable of it. So long as they can keep feeding the guns the advantage is to them.
What an odd statement. Obviously Russia is just as capable of doing counter-battery as Ukraine. Even more so, given they have more hardware, especially drones. And Ukraine is having trouble feeding the guns, or having their destroyed guns replenished.

I think by end of June, Russia will have cut off the supply lines to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, causing Ukrainian defense there to collapse, and directly shell Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Despite what ISW is saying about Russian "combat power" allegedly diminishing, to me it seems like they've gotten over the slump.

Kharkiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20June%2012%2C2022.png


Some western weapons may help, due to increased range and accuracy. But lack of drones to scout the targets and correct them might be a problem. Ukraine needs to inflict as much casualties on Russian side as possible, while avoiding their own.
 

Elixir

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lack of drones to scout the targets and correct them might be a problem
Does Russia have the ability to detect whether targeting information is being provided by the US?
How could they know?
What does target information necessarily consist of, anyhow?
Is "there's a bunch of enemy artillery set up inside your eastern border" targeting information?
Or does it have to include GPS coordinates, altitude, target visual profile, weather, terrain factors etc?
Pootey will claim US involvement every time he gets smacked in the face anyhow, so what's there to lose?
 

Jayjay

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lack of drones to scout the targets and correct them might be a problem
Does Russia have the ability to detect whether targeting information is being provided by the US?
How could they know?
What does target information necessarily consist of, anyhow?
Is "there's a bunch of enemy artillery set up inside your eastern border" targeting information?
Or does it have to include GPS coordinates, altitude, target visual profile, weather, terrain factors etc?
Pootey will claim US involvement every time he gets smacked in the face anyhow, so what's there to lose?
I don't think satellite data is that omnipotent.

Modern artillery is not static. They are constantly maneuvering and firing from different positions. So even if a US spy satellite sees a flash or notices Russian artillery in some location, the delay caused by the fact that US would first have to give Ukraine the information, and Ukraine would need to plan to react, maybe move their own artillery in place to shoot, the targets would be long gone by then.

Counter-artillery radar systems on the ground are probably more useful. They would give Ukraine instant information where to hit back, which is absolutely crucial. But there is then the matter of more fine tuned targeting. Usually old style artillery isn't that accurate, and it has to be corrected after the first strike. Drones are extremely useful for this purpose, and that's why Russia has thousands of them. Accuracy can also be improved by having active GPS or cameras on the missiles themselves, which is what makes some of these western weapons superior, but GPS signals can be jammed and these shells cost more than dumb ones.
 

Loren Pechtel

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This war has turned into a massive artillery duel. Unfortunately on that front, the Russians have the advantage. Ukraine is reporting massive artillery shortages and significantly less guns. We need to give them as much artillery as possible and as fast as possible.

But Ukraine is able to counter-battery, Russia seems incapable of it. So long as they can keep feeding the guns the advantage is to them.
What an odd statement. Obviously Russia is just as capable of doing counter-battery as Ukraine. Even more so, given they have more hardware, especially drones. And Ukraine is having trouble feeding the guns, or having their destroyed guns replenished.
They should be able to but it appears to be a flexibility issue. Ukraine has dispersed their guns, no Ukrainian artillery batteries exist and for whatever reason individual guns aren't drawing counterbattery fire.

I do agree they are having problems feeding them--artillery is a major logistics hog.
 

Loren Pechtel

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lack of drones to scout the targets and correct them might be a problem
Does Russia have the ability to detect whether targeting information is being provided by the US?
How could they know?
What does target information necessarily consist of, anyhow?
Is "there's a bunch of enemy artillery set up inside your eastern border" targeting information?
Or does it have to include GPS coordinates, altitude, target visual profile, weather, terrain factors etc?
Pootey will claim US involvement every time he gets smacked in the face anyhow, so what's there to lose?
It needs accurate coordinates in some form, you can't fire on "inside your eastern border". Artillery won't care about visual profile (that's for target identification) or weather, and only very rarely about terrain. You can get elevation from latitude/longitude + a topo map. Thus, almost always it's simply lat/lon, nothing more is needed. I doubt we are even providing actual targeting data anyway--our birds would know something is there but at that point you figure out what, you don't fire on a blip on the radar.
 

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Finland just announced that it won't join NATO unless Sweden is allowed in. This is pretty cool, since Finland has always been a pretty reluctant partner of Sweden. Since Russia took Finland from Sweden (1809) Sweden has always been super nice to Finland while Finland has not been nice to Sweden. Finland has a bit of a complicated relationship to Sweden since they have a large Swedish minority.

As far as I know, this is the first time Finland ever acknowledges that we're brother nations sticking together. We were before this. But Finland has kept pretending that we're not. Now they have stopped pretending. Nothing brings people together as something external that's big and scary. It's kind of beautiful.
 

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This war has turned into a massive artillery duel. Unfortunately on that front, the Russians have the advantage. Ukraine is reporting massive artillery shortages and significantly less guns. We need to give them as much artillery as possible and as fast as possible.

But Ukraine is able to counter-battery, Russia seems incapable of it. So long as they can keep feeding the guns the advantage is to them.
What an odd statement. Obviously Russia is just as capable of doing counter-battery as Ukraine. Even more so, given they have more hardware, especially drones. And Ukraine is having trouble feeding the guns, or having their destroyed guns replenished.

I think by end of June, Russia will have cut off the supply lines to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, causing Ukrainian defense there to collapse, and directly shell Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Despite what ISW is saying about Russian "combat power" allegedly diminishing, to me it seems like they've gotten over the slump.

Kharkiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20June%2012%2C2022.png


Some western weapons may help, due to increased range and accuracy. But lack of drones to scout the targets and correct them might be a problem. Ukraine needs to inflict as much casualties on Russian side as possible, while avoiding their own.

It's important to acknowledge that the Ukrainian successes have been impressive. But only impressive considering that everybody thought Russia would instantly crush them like a bug. They weren't instantly crushed. But they're still being crushed. Russia is a hell of a lot more powerful than Ukraine and, over time, will grind Ukraine to dust. If the west wants to change that, they need to get actively involved. Sending weapons will only prolong the inevitable.
 

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Finland just announced that it won't join NATO unless Sweden is allowed in. This is pretty cool, since Finland has always been a pretty reluctant partner of Sweden. Since Russia took Finland from Sweden (1809) Sweden has always been super nice to Finland while Finland has not been nice to Sweden. Finland has a bit of a complicated relationship to Sweden since they have a large Swedish minority.

As far as I know, this is the first time Finland ever acknowledges that we're brother nations sticking together. We were before this. But Finland has kept pretending that we're not. Now they have stopped pretending. Nothing brings people together as something external that's big and scary. It's kind of beautiful.
It's also bollocks. This patronizing depiction of Finnish-Swedish relations, that is.
 

DrZoidberg

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Finland just announced that it won't join NATO unless Sweden is allowed in. This is pretty cool, since Finland has always been a pretty reluctant partner of Sweden. Since Russia took Finland from Sweden (1809) Sweden has always been super nice to Finland while Finland has not been nice to Sweden. Finland has a bit of a complicated relationship to Sweden since they have a large Swedish minority.

As far as I know, this is the first time Finland ever acknowledges that we're brother nations sticking together. We were before this. But Finland has kept pretending that we're not. Now they have stopped pretending. Nothing brings people together as something external that's big and scary. It's kind of beautiful.
It's also bollocks. This patronizing depiction of Finnish-Swedish relations, that is.
What? In what way is it patronizing?

Do you want to see a picture of the monument in Stockholm of all the Swedes who have died defending Finland from Russia?

Most Swedes wouldn't hesitate to defend Finland today.

For historical reasons Swedish patriotism extends to protecting Finland. It's clearly important to a lot of Swedes. I don't see what is patronizing about that?
 

Jayjay

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Finland just announced that it won't join NATO unless Sweden is allowed in. This is pretty cool, since Finland has always been a pretty reluctant partner of Sweden. Since Russia took Finland from Sweden (1809) Sweden has always been super nice to Finland while Finland has not been nice to Sweden. Finland has a bit of a complicated relationship to Sweden since they have a large Swedish minority.

As far as I know, this is the first time Finland ever acknowledges that we're brother nations sticking together. We were before this. But Finland has kept pretending that we're not. Now they have stopped pretending. Nothing brings people together as something external that's big and scary. It's kind of beautiful.
It's also bollocks. This patronizing depiction of Finnish-Swedish relations, that is.
What? In what way is it patronizing?

Do you want to see a picture of the monument in Stockholm of all the Swedes who have died defending Finland from Russia?

Most Swedes wouldn't hesitate to defend Finland today.

For historical reasons Swedish patriotism extends to protecting Finland. It's clearly important to a lot of Swedes. I don't see what is patronizing about that?
The patronizing, and somewhat ignorant part was assuming that Finland doesn't recognize the help we got from Sweden, or has been a "reluctant partner". If you read the news, you'll know that what our president said yesterday was a direct reference to what Sweden said in 1939.

Also Finland doesn't have a "complicated relationship" with the Swedish-speaking minority. They're Finns, who happen to speak Swedish, albeit in an accent that real Swedes probably consider funny. And Swedish language has been a mandatory subject in our schools since forever, we absolutely respect the historical bond and friendship.

In any case, the situation now is not so much about leaving either country behind in NATO talks. It's to call out Turkey's bluff. I think Erdogan made a backroom deal with Putin that he'll delay the applications on some pretext, and driving a wedge between Finland and Sweden in an attempt to get either side to give some impossible concessions maybe part of that. Erdogan knows damn well that neither country is going to start extraditing Kurdish activists to Turkey just to get to NATO.
 

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As the wider war in Ukraine enters its fourth month, the Kremlin is beginning the painful process of forming potentially dozens of BTGs to replace an equal number of battalions the Ukrainians have destroyed. The deadline reportedly is in June.

But those BTGs will ride in obsolete vehicles. And they will leave behind them the empty shells of brigades and regiments that no longer will have much, or any, training base.

Trainers are an army’s regenerative tissue—the means by which it sustains itself after wartime damage. When you deploy the trainers, you lose the ability to regenerate. What that means is: Russia can replenish its army in Ukraine, restoring it roughly to the numerical strength—if not the technological sophistication—it possessed on day one of the wider war.

But it can only replenish the army once. If Ukraine destroys those extra Russian BTGs, there might not be any more battalions to take their place.
 

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From the German invasion of Czechlosavakia to the surrender of Germany took about five years. Pootie's idea that Ukraine would quickly collapes like France did when Germany attacked failed. Russia, short term, has already failed. Ukraine is now getting weapons from the West, while Russia is now having to use 50 year old T-60 tanks. Time may not be on Russia's side. If Russia decides to win it must use long range weapons to utterly destroy all of Ukraine,leaving it a smoking crater, when will NATO decide that is unacceptable?
Well there's the rub. Russia doesn't "win" if they leave Ukraine a smoking crater.

This is a war over resources after all. Oil, natural gas, and the infrastructure to deliver those commodities to market. It's not a coincidence that Putin wants the eastern part of Ukraine, and it's not because a lot of ethnic Russians live there. It's about what's underneath their feet.

He almost had it all. A pro-Russian government in Kyiv, some pipelines running to the rest of Europe, and a chance to corner the market (holy shit look at all this natural gas!) Then all that went south...or more accurately...west. He had to step in and set up a government that wasn't looking to the west rather than Moscow, and he figured it would be an easy lift. Whoops. Now he's in a bind. He can't turn Ukraine into a smoking crater. He can't take the whole thing because he's mightily pissed off the Ukrainian people, and he might be able to hold on to gains in the east, but a European market that's turning away from whatever product he's able to extract from that region might not be as profitable as he thought.
Wow, a new theory!
 

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As the wider war in Ukraine enters its fourth month, the Kremlin is beginning the painful process of forming potentially dozens of BTGs to replace an equal number of battalions the Ukrainians have destroyed. The deadline reportedly is in June.

But those BTGs will ride in obsolete vehicles. And they will leave behind them the empty shells of brigades and regiments that no longer will have much, or any, training base.

Trainers are an army’s regenerative tissue—the means by which it sustains itself after wartime damage. When you deploy the trainers, you lose the ability to regenerate. What that means is: Russia can replenish its army in Ukraine, restoring it roughly to the numerical strength—if not the technological sophistication—it possessed on day one of the wider war.

But it can only replenish the army once. If Ukraine destroys those extra Russian BTGs, there might not be any more battalions to take their place.
Let's not forget that Ukraine is also running out of its stock of weapons. This guy had to use material from the 70s:

 

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Let's not forget that Ukraine
Ukraine is running out of everything war related - ammunition, fuel, soldiers.
Russian army has 40x advantage in artillery units and 60x in ammunition for them.
There are countless videos of ukrainian units quitting because they have no support with only AK-74 against artillery. These stupid mercenaries are quitting too, they say "We wanted to kill some people but instead we are being constantly being bombed with no chance to even see these russians"
The only reason Ukraine is still kinda "standing" is because Russia does not want Ukraine to be utterly destroyed, after all, large parts of it will be Russia again.
 

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Let's not forget that Ukraine
Ukraine is running out of everything war related - ammunition, fuel, soldiers.
All the more reason to keep supplying them with the first two. Casualties are probably 1-to-1, and while Ukraine is smaller, its fighters are more motivated because they're defending their homeland, while Russian soldiers are in it just for the loot.
 

barbos

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Let's not forget that Ukraine
Ukraine is running out of everything war related - ammunition, fuel, soldiers.
All the more reason to keep supplying them with the first two. Casualties are probably 1-to-1, and while Ukraine is smaller, its fighters are more motivated because they're defending their homeland, while Russian soldiers are in it just for the loot.
No, wrong again. You can supply all you want, but only tiny amount gets to the front line and gets used for anything, usually for murdering civilian population, because it's easier.
And, no, it's not 1-to-1 at all. It's been about artillery for a long time now and Russia has huge advantage in that. Ukrainians have no logistics for artillery anymore.
It's 1-to-1 when russian taking the cities, but russians are not doing it anymore. They simply wait until these idiots surrender. Ukrainians can't do shit other that sit in cities and hope russian infantry enters it. In the open field ukrainians gets destroyed 100-to-0. They tried few counter-offensives with simply disastrous results like 1-3 (out of ~100 people) survivors or even no survivors as in the case of Snake Island.
Russian army finally found the formula and it is artillery+UAVs.
Of course slow movement means urainian terrorist army have opportunity to retaliate against pro-russian population with what is left of their artillery.
 
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All the more reason to keep supplying them with the first two. Casualties are probably 1-to-1, and while Ukraine is smaller, its fighters are more motivated because they're defending their homeland, while Russian soldiers are in it just for the loot.
Coupled with the fact that Northrop, Raytheon Boeing etc can make some serious bank on this with Daddy Congress footing the bill. I'm very much against US MIC, but this is one of those stopped clock moments considering how much of the world Russia wants to starve just so it can have its anschluss moment. And that's not factoring the amount of military aid coming from Europe.
 

barbos

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its fighters are more motivated because they're defending their homeland,
Nope, they are not, and they are pretty open about it in these "We quit!" youtube videos. They don't consider Eastern Ukraine their homeland, they consider it Russia and try to bomb civilian population there, have been doing it for 8 years.
 

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Ukraine is losing badly even in the singing department.
Before that they lost badly in poetry department as well.
One ukrainian girl composed some pretty shitty "poem" about how ukrainians are better than russians only to get utterly destroyed by a girl from the Eastern Ukraine.

The song was written before the special operation but very appropriate to the situation.
The guy wrote lyrics and music all by himself and he has voice and more.
 
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laughing dog

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Ukraine is losing badly even in the singing department.

Before that they lost badly in poetry department as well.
One ukrainian girl composed some pretty shitty "poem" about how ukrainians are better than russians only to get utterly destroyed by a girl from the Eastern Ukraine.

The song was written before the special operation but very appropriate to the situation.
The guy wrote lyrics and music all by himself and he has voice and more.

Ukraine did not invade a sovereign country. Your Russian boosting is a pathetic sideshow to the shittiness of the Russian military, the Russian gov't, and the thousands of Russian dupes who swallow the lies of their gov't.
 
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DrZoidberg

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Finland just announced that it won't join NATO unless Sweden is allowed in. This is pretty cool, since Finland has always been a pretty reluctant partner of Sweden. Since Russia took Finland from Sweden (1809) Sweden has always been super nice to Finland while Finland has not been nice to Sweden. Finland has a bit of a complicated relationship to Sweden since they have a large Swedish minority.

As far as I know, this is the first time Finland ever acknowledges that we're brother nations sticking together. We were before this. But Finland has kept pretending that we're not. Now they have stopped pretending. Nothing brings people together as something external that's big and scary. It's kind of beautiful.
It's also bollocks. This patronizing depiction of Finnish-Swedish relations, that is.
What? In what way is it patronizing?

Do you want to see a picture of the monument in Stockholm of all the Swedes who have died defending Finland from Russia?

Most Swedes wouldn't hesitate to defend Finland today.

For historical reasons Swedish patriotism extends to protecting Finland. It's clearly important to a lot of Swedes. I don't see what is patronizing about that?
The patronizing, and somewhat ignorant part was assuming that Finland doesn't recognize the help we got from Sweden, or has been a "reluctant partner". If you read the news, you'll know that what our president said yesterday was a direct reference to what Sweden said in 1939.

Also Finland doesn't have a "complicated relationship" with the Swedish-speaking minority. They're Finns, who happen to speak Swedish, albeit in an accent that real Swedes probably consider funny. And Swedish language has been a mandatory subject in our schools since forever, we absolutely respect the historical bond and friendship.

In any case, the situation now is not so much about leaving either country behind in NATO talks. It's to call out Turkey's bluff. I think Erdogan made a backroom deal with Putin that he'll delay the applications on some pretext, and driving a wedge between Finland and Sweden in an attempt to get either side to give some impossible concessions maybe part of that. Erdogan knows damn well that neither country is going to start extraditing Kurdish activists to Turkey just to get to NATO.

I didn't say Finns have a complicated relationship to the Swedish-Finns. They have a complicated relationship to Sweden and Swedes. I could be wrong. But my impression is that Swedes has always liked Finns more than Finns like Swedes. In the 60'ies Finland offloaded their sickest alcoholics onto Sweden. As well as many of their gypsies. Because they didn't want them to be a drain on the Finnish welfare system. That's not a nice thing to do.

I know the Swedish-Finns have a complicated relationship to both Finland and Sweden. I know plenty. They often have split loyalties (of course). Some identify as primarily Swedish. Some identify as primarily Finnish.

And I never said Finland hasn't been grateful or shown gratitude. But it has been a mixed bag.

And a very interesting thing is that there's 65 000 Finish-Swedes living in Sweden. They're the most invisible of minorities in Sweden. They're almost always assumed not to live in Sweden, even if they may have lived in Sweden for generations. Swedes also too often assume they're Finns talking Swedish with a Finnish accent, rather than an officially recognized dialect of Swedish. I know that annoys them, every time.
 

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Seems to me that you (swedes and finns) have some unresolved issues with each other :)
Good thing russians don't have issues with finns.
 

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Let's not forget that Ukraine
Ukraine is running out of everything war related - ammunition, fuel, soldiers.
All the more reason to keep supplying them with the first two. Casualties are probably 1-to-1, and while Ukraine is smaller, its fighters are more motivated because they're defending their homeland, while Russian soldiers are in it just for the loot.
No, wrong again. You can supply all you want, but only tiny amount gets to the front line and gets used for anything, usually for murdering civilian population, because it's easier
Of course, your evidence for Ukrainians "murdering civilian population" is either Russian state propaganda, or non-existent. :rolleyes:

According to UN, most recorded civilian casualties (3-to-1 ratio) are on Ukrainian controlled territory. Russia is the one killing civilians in this war, they just recently managed to get closer to Kharkiv and the first thing that happened was shelling on civilian neighborhoods. Ukraine of course sometimes hits civilians too, because in a war shit happens, but for Ukraine it's far less frequent.

The way Russian propagandists work is that once the Russian army has shelled a town, they move in their bloggers and media to ogle at the damage and dead bodies and blame it on Ukraine. For example last month in Bilozerka:


The Ukrainian news that first reported it mention that the missile came from Russian territory from the South:


This is probably the pattern in 99% of cases where Russia claims that Ukraine shelled civilians. It's all lies.

And, no, it's not 1-to-1 at all. It's been about artillery for a long time now and Russia has huge advantage in that. Ukrainians have no logistics for artillery anymore.
It's 1-to-1 when russian taking the cities, but russians are not doing it anymore. They simply wait until these idiots surrender. Ukrainians can't do shit other that sit in cities and hope russian infantry enters it. In the open field ukrainians gets destroyed 100-to-0. They tried few counter-offensives with simply disastrous results like 1-3 (out of ~100 people) survivors or even no survivors as in the case of Snake Island.
Russian army finally found the formula and it is artillery+UAVs.
Of course slow movement means urainian terrorist army have opportunity to retaliate against pro-russian population with what is left of their artillery.
Russia has advantage in artillery, and that's why Ukrainian aren't going to just go to open fields to be killed. Neither side actually publishes reliable casualty numbers, so your guess is just as bad as mine.

The Russian "formula" is exactly the same they used in Grozny (sans drones) and Aleppo. Destroy everything with artillery until there's nothing where the enemy can hide, move in, repeat.
 

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Of course, your evidence for Ukrainians "murdering civilian population" is either Russian state propaganda, or non-existent.
No, it exists just is not being shown in the West.
Or rather not being widely reported.

According to UN, most recorded civilian casualties (3-to-1 ratio) are on Ukrainian controlled territory.
Well, first, UN does not have observers on Russian controlled territories. And second, ukrainian forces murder civilian population on the territory they control just fine.
Why would not they? it's russian pro-russians.

Russia has advantage in artillery, and that's why Ukrainian aren't going to just go to open fields to be killed.
Well, sometime they have no choice. Their Clown President says "I want success!"
The Russian "formula" is exactly the same they used in Grozny (sans drones) and Aleppo. Destroy everything with artillery until there's nothing where the enemy can hide
Well, that's a lie and actually an american strategy because american generals themselves admitted their surprise at how careful russian army was and is.
 

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This is probably the pattern in 99% of cases where Russia claims that Ukraine shelled civilians. It's all lies.
Fucking bullshit. The west admitted on multiple occasions that it was ukrainian side who were murdering civilian population. They admit and then quickly forget.
Russia intents to keep all the land they manage to occupy. Nazis know that and that's why they have no problem with shelling them.
 

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its fighters are more motivated because they're defending their homeland,
Nope, they are not, and they are pretty open about it in these "We quit!" youtube videos. They don't consider Eastern Ukraine their homeland, they consider it Russia and try to bomb civilian population there, have been doing it for 8 years.
The only such video I've seen was them complaining about not having equipment. Not that they didn't want to fight.

There are several "we quit" videos from Russian side as well. And you know the dozens of phone calls where Russians call their mothers or wives and whine about how they want to get out. But these are anecdotal evidence. One or two quitters don't mean anything.

1.4 million people had to flee from Crimea and Donbas after 2014, and a lot of those volunteered to fight before it was mandatory. Your characterization that they don't consider the eastern part of the country their home is just false.
 

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There are several "we quit" videos from Russian side as well. And you know the dozens of phone calls where Russians call their mothers or wives and whine about how they want to get out. But these are anecdotal evidence. One or two quitters don't mean anything.
Show the damn video. OK?

Russian army is winning and don't suffer much casualties while doing so.
Western media is lying to you.
 

barbos

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1.4 million people had to flee from Crimea and Donbas after 2014, and a lot of those volunteered to fight before it was mandatory. Your characterization that they don't consider the eastern part of the country their home is just false.
Pretty much nobody fled Crimea even some ukro-nazis decided to get russian passports just in case. There were few scandals with rabidly pro-ukraine assholes having russian passports.
And these who fled Donbas, fled for Russia and even these who fled for Ukraine does not mean they were pro-ukrainian.
And it does not even matter. Nazis don't really care one way or another, they are nazis.
they fucking blow bridges to prevent retreat of their own troops.
Eastern Ukraine is overwhelmingly pro-russian, much more so now because these few who were pro-ukrainian have left it or even became pro-russian.
 

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I didn't say Finns have a complicated relationship to the Swedish-Finns. They have a complicated relationship to Sweden and Swedes.
But it was implied as if the Swedish-speaking minority had something to do with it. On the contrary, thanks to that there are many connections from Finland to Sweden, and there have always been.

I could be wrong. But my impression is that Swedes has always liked Finns more than Finns like Swedes. In the 60'ies Finland offloaded their sickest alcoholics onto Sweden. As well as many of their gypsies. Because they didn't want them to be a drain on the Finnish welfare system. That's not a nice thing to do.
They might have seemed like the sickest, most violent alcoholics that you had ever seen, but in reality they were just average Finnish people. :)

And don't start with the Gypsies. Sweden offloaded them to Finland back in the day (they all have Swedish surnames), some may have returned eventually. Probably have family both sides of the border.
 

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I didn't say Finns have a complicated relationship to the Swedish-Finns. They have a complicated relationship to Sweden and Swedes.
But it was implied as if the Swedish-speaking minority had something to do with it. On the contrary, thanks to that there are many connections from Finland to Sweden, and there have always been.

I assure you, that's something you read into it that wasn't there. And Swedes generally see Swedish-Finns as Finnish. Strange, but true. And Swedes really really like Finns. All Finns. I don't think Swedes in general like Swedish-Finns extra much. I know northern Swedes feel more connection and kinship to northern Finns than to Stockholm. At least, that's what they keep saying.



I could be wrong. But my impression is that Swedes has always liked Finns more than Finns like Swedes. In the 60'ies Finland offloaded their sickest alcoholics onto Sweden. As well as many of their gypsies. Because they didn't want them to be a drain on the Finnish welfare system. That's not a nice thing to do.
They might have seemed like the sickest, most violent alcoholics that you had ever seen, but in reality they were just average Finnish people. :)
ha ha. Nice save.

And don't start with the Gypsies. Sweden offloaded them to Finland back in the day (they all have Swedish surnames), some may have returned eventually. Probably have family both sides of the border.

ha ha... Yeah. It probably sucks the most for the Gypsies.
 
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