- Apr 8, 2002
- Basic Beliefs
- An accurate worldview or philosophy
Well, that was my point more or less. It's not about resources (though they may be nice to have), but compliance and control. And as far as resources and infrastructure go, the key is not to let them fall in Ukrainian hands, not that Russia has plans to exploit them.This assumes that Putin looked at Russia's large supply of natural resources and said "you know what? We've got enough. No need to seek out any more. We're satisfied."I think you're wrong. Russia has already plenty of natural resources. And it's bombing all the industrial infrastructure to bits.Well there's the rub. Russia doesn't "win" if they leave Ukraine a smoking crater.From the German invasion of Czechlosavakia to the surrender of Germany took about five years. Pootie's idea that Ukraine would quickly collapes like France did when Germany attacked failed. Russia, short term, has already failed. Ukraine is now getting weapons from the West, while Russia is now having to use 50 year old T-60 tanks. Time may not be on Russia's side. If Russia decides to win it must use long range weapons to utterly destroy all of Ukraine,leaving it a smoking crater, when will NATO decide that is unacceptable?
This is a war over resources after all. Oil, natural gas, and the infrastructure to deliver those commodities to market. It's not a coincidence that Putin wants the eastern part of Ukraine, and it's not because a lot of ethnic Russians live there. It's about what's underneath their feet.
For Russia, it's a perfectly acceptable outcome if Ukraine becomes a smoking crater. It's more about denying these resources to Ukraine, than getting them for itself. What Russia wants is control of the coastline, and land connection to Transnistria and Moldova.
No, this was a brazen attempt to quickly overthrow the pro-western government in Ukraine, install a Kremlin puppet regime, and exploit not just the gas and oil reserves, but maintain control over the pipelines and shipping so Russia can enrich themselves and "restore" their country to the "glory" Putin remembers from his days with the Soviet Union. He wanted Ukraine to be like Belarus...compliant.
I don't think Russia will be in any hurry to try to access Eastern Ukraine's natural gas resources. It would be a risky endeavour, when they have no idea when the war is going to flame up again, and there is a very high risk of sabotage from Ukrainian partisans. That's slightly less of an issue in the Black Sea, but Russia is going to be strapped for money to invest in new gas fields. And fossil fuels are going out of vogue anyway. Same goes for rebuilding the infrastructure. The local stooges in Mariupol already said that the Azovstal steel factory is not going to be rebuilt, but the city will be turned into a "tourist attraction". The industrial infrastructure that Russian bombed to the ground is going to stay there.