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The End of the Donald Trump candidacy.

Bronzeage

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The problem with explaining the obvious it that one man's obvious is another man's mine field. The field is obvious, but the mines are not. The standard political metaphor for a dangerous topic is "third rail". The third rail of subway track is pretty obvious and most people know to stay away from them, or risk electrocution.

A political mine field is a very different metaphor. A political mine field is a subject which injures one's cause, but not in an immediate or obvious way. The audience maybe nodding their heads, but there's one or two people who were just lost forever.
The two biggest political mine fields of the past 30 years have been gay rights and abortion rights.

Many years ago, during the short lived crisis in the Episcopal Church, about the ordination of an openly gay Bishop, I sat in a meeting with a group of church people who were trying to decide how it affected them. This was a socially liberal group of people, but they weren't sure what it all meant. Some very nasty quotes had been reported in the news and these people were trying very hard to be polite, but I could tell a few of them found the entire idea disgusting. One woman, who had been quiet the entire evening, tried to fight tears and said, "But what do I tell my gay son?"

I had just seen a landmine explode. Here was a woman, who for all outward appearances was a solid Republican voter, but any candidate who took a position to disparage, diminish, or deny any right to her son, would never get her vote. In any group of 100 people, gathered for any reason, there is going to be at least one gay person and many more with a close relative who is gay. They don't wear a special hat, so there's no way to tell. Whether anyone knows, or not, their vote will hang on this issue. This is especially true for people who do not voice their opinions. They may answer a pollster in the expected way, but in the voting booth, the issue cuts to the heart of their family and the gay-hostile candidate will not get their vote. There is no way to count them.

Abortion rights is the second mine field. This mine field is much larger. No one will argue abortion is a good thing, and it is always a poor choice among a short list of poor options. What's more, it's always a very private and secret thing. There are no bumper stickers or window decals. What there is, however, is the memory of the desperate situation which led to it. The candidate who rails against Roe v. Wade recalls that desperation and thoughts of what would have been, if abortion had not been available, or simply dangerous. Boom, another land mine goes off.

There is a third mine field and in the past week there have been so many mines explode, it sounds like a long crack of distant thunder. Like the first two mine fields, the people who wander across it, have no idea where they are.

Sexual assault is a very wide spectrum of behavior. It is so wide that there are many people don't recognize about half of assaults as being any kind of infringement. Unless there is an injury that requires medical attention, a sexual assault remains the victim's secret, or limited to a few close friends. After all, what can be done, after the fact? The effects range from mild indignation to life long emotional trauma, but there's no real outward appearance. There's no way to know, just by talking to someone, but it's there.
The actual quote is, “Just kiss. I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab them by the pussy. You can do anything.”

These are the words of a predator. When this now famous video hit the internet and airways, the sound of millions of land mines roared across the country with a great collective shudder. In the time it took to absorb these words, every sexual assault victim's memory boiled to the surface. Perhaps the worst part of this embarrassing incident is how well it illustrates what I said above about people not recognizing half of sexual assaults as a valid offense against another person.

There are people who think this kind of behavior is normal, and are not at all disturbed by it. There are people who think that it should be overlooked because other men have done similar things. We don't see that defense applied to armed robbery. In past centuries, we protected women from this kind of thing by keeping them locked in the house and closely supervised. That became very impractical, so we put them in charge of the sexual brakes. The rules were very complicated, but all a man had to remember was, he could do as much as she would let him do. For most men, this is a reasonable standard. There is always a fringe group that believe "yes" and "you can't stop me," mean the same thing.

If we go back to our room of 100 people, there will be a gay people and someone who had an abortion, at least one of each. Nearly every person in the room has had their life affected by sexual assault, either by being the victim, or being close to a victim. This is one of those, "If you don't see the problem, you are the problem," situations.
From the start of this election season, Donald Trump was a long shot. His odds have steadily improved, almost to the point of real possibility. That's gone now. There's no way out of this mine field.

He has revealed himself to be that worst of the privileged, the man who thinks he can take anything that can't be defended.

This goes far beyond his relationships with women. It explains all the contractors and vendors who supplied his building projects, and then not paid the due amount. It is the pattern of his life. It is pure foolishness to believe this mentality can be harnessed for the public good.
 
this whole pile of intellectual faffery is once again predicated on the completely wrong and inexplicably repeated mistake of assuming any of these things are things that trump supporters think are bad.
they are not.

the 50ish% of the US voting population that always vote republican generally find trump to be awesome and the shit he says to be peachy.
you can't have an "ah shit now it's all crumbling down" moment in the trump campaign because that would require any of these things to be objectionable to the people who are going to be voting for him, and none of it is.

i don't understand why "liberals" can't wrap their heads around this.
 
this whole pile of intellectual faffery is once again predicated on the completely wrong and inexplicably repeated mistake of assuming any of these things are things that trump supporters think are bad.
they are not.

the 50ish% of the US voting population that always vote republican generally find trump to be awesome and the shit he says to be peachy.
you can't have an "ah shit now it's all crumbling down" moment in the trump campaign because that would require any of these things to be objectionable to the people who are going to be voting for him, and none of it is.

i don't understand why "liberals" can't wrap their heads around this.

Yup. There is a great gulf between what reasonable people think should be, and what is.
 
this whole pile of intellectual faffery is once again predicated on the completely wrong and inexplicably repeated mistake of assuming any of these things are things that trump supporters think are bad.
they are not.

the 50ish% of the US voting population that always vote republican generally find trump to be awesome and the shit he says to be peachy.
you can't have an "ah shit now it's all crumbling down" moment in the trump campaign because that would require any of these things to be objectionable to the people who are going to be voting for him, and none of it is.

i don't understand why "liberals" can't wrap their heads around this.

You're correct except that it's actually only 35-40ish% of the US population covered by that. That isn't enough to win. He needs those and then some other people. It's the lack of his ability to get other people for all these reasons which is costing him the presidency.
 
You're correct except that it's actually only 35-40ish% of the US population covered by that. That isn't enough to win. He needs those and then some other people. It's the lack of his ability to get other people for all these reasons which is costing him the presidency.
well, i said US voting population, not US population - as i'm sure you know, the number of people who actually vote vs. the number of people eligible to vote is pretty skewed in the US and is quite low.
in the US every single presidential election for the last 35 years at least has shown this pattern to be true:
45% of people who might actually vote will vote democrat no matter what.
45% of people who might actually vote will vote republican no matter what.
10% of people who might actually vote shit their pants and sniff their fingers, or vote 3rd party or write-in or whatever, it's all the same thing.

now, of those numbers, not 100% of them vote every year - that's just of potential voters.
presidential elections in the US are determined solely by which party's 45% is the most pissed off that year and how many of them bother to go vote... or, very occasionally (such as in 1996 and in 2000) and it's a particularly close race and a 3rd party candidate pulls off just enough votes in key areas to rig the system.
whichever party gets the higher percent of their 45% to vote, that party wins. the end.

"other people" don't exist in the US in terms of a voting bloc, the whole delusion about "undecided" or "independent" voters is a fantasy concocted by the US media and perpetuated by the political establishment in order to perpetuate the illusion of electoral diversity and to excuse pandering, and to pretend like the politicians themselves have any impact on the elections whatsoever.
 
this whole pile of intellectual faffery is once again predicated on the completely wrong and inexplicably repeated mistake of assuming any of these things are things that trump supporters think are bad.
they are not.

Of course they do, depending on who's doing the things. Since it's their guy, and no one they know is the victim, they just make excuses. But if a Trump supporter found out his/her daughter was the one being groped, or even talked about, the reaction would be quite different.
 
this whole pile of intellectual faffery is once again predicated on the completely wrong and inexplicably repeated mistake of assuming any of these things are things that trump supporters think are bad.
they are not.

the 50ish% of the US voting population that always vote republican generally find trump to be awesome and the shit he says to be peachy.
you can't have an "ah shit now it's all crumbling down" moment in the trump campaign because that would require any of these things to be objectionable to the people who are going to be voting for him, and none of it is.

i don't understand why "liberals" can't wrap their heads around this.

The biggest portion of the American voting public doesn't care about politics. They have other things on their minds. These are the same people who haven't seen a football game all season, but watch the Superbowl.

They don't have any great political passions, mainly because life in the US is pretty good, even in the worst of times. Their choice of candidate will be based more on a personal impression of the person, than on any particular political position.

A voter such as this, makes up their mind over mine field issues. It's just about their only personal connection with politics and it is a very real factor in any election.

The Trump campaign has had only one advantage in this election, and that was Hillary's negative ratings. From the beginning, he has shown himself to be incompetent, surrounded by an incompetent(some would say amateur) staff. Yesterday, he claimed to read a hacked Hillary email. It had been altered and was not at all what Trump claimed it to be. The real problem was, this particular copy, word for word, appeared on a Russian news site. Although it was up for only a few hours, somehow the Trump campaign managed to find it and save it. The next thing we see is a Presidential candidate reading an email, using people's real names, and misattributed quotes. The original email was still available on Wikileaks.

Then Trump reads it on camera. If such a thing had happened in any other Presidential campaign, and the candidate was caught reading Russian disinformation at a rally, the entire senior staff would be escorted out of the building by security.

Trumpers will love Trump, but the minefield will be his undoing.
 
You're correct except that it's actually only 35-40ish% of the US population covered by that. That isn't enough to win. He needs those and then some other people. It's the lack of his ability to get other people for all these reasons which is costing him the presidency.
well, i said US voting population, not US population - as i'm sure you know, the number of people who actually vote vs. the number of people eligible to vote is pretty skewed in the US and is quite low.
in the US every single presidential election for the last 35 years at least has shown this pattern to be true:
45% of people who might actually vote will vote democrat no matter what.
45% of people who might actually vote will vote republican no matter what.
10% of people who might actually vote shit their pants and sniff their fingers, or vote 3rd party or write-in or whatever, it's all the same thing.

now, of those numbers, not 100% of them vote every year - that's just of potential voters.
presidential elections in the US are determined solely by which party's 45% is the most pissed off that year and how many of them bother to go vote... or, very occasionally (such as in 1996 and in 2000) and it's a particularly close race and a 3rd party candidate pulls off just enough votes in key areas to rig the system.
whichever party gets the higher percent of their 45% to vote, that party wins. the end.

"other people" don't exist in the US in terms of a voting bloc, the whole delusion about "undecided" or "independent" voters is a fantasy concocted by the US media and perpetuated by the political establishment in order to perpetuate the illusion of electoral diversity and to excuse pandering, and to pretend like the politicians themselves have any impact on the elections whatsoever.

I was talking about the same subset. Only a subset of the Republican subset are willing to vote for Trump no matter what. They won't vote Democrat, of course, but staying home or voting third party is as irrelevant a move for them as it is for everyone else.

A part of that 45% that goes Republican are turned off by Trump because of all the stuff in the OP and they won't vote for him. The 10% in the middle are the same. What's left for Trump isn't enough to win, especially since they haven't been coming out to register to vote in any great numbers and he doesn't have any kind of ground game to get them off the couch.

The man is done and that's even without the even nastier tapes and revelations coming out against him over the next couple of weeks.
 
Trumpers will love Trump, but the minefield will be his undoing.
i just have to continue to disagree with you on this.

i mean i suppose it's possible that trump's... trumpiness... will result in voter apathy and reduce the percentage of the republican bloc of votes, but that will only matter to the extent that the same thing doesn't happen to the democrats.

this election is 2000 all over again: a boring milquetoast centrist democrat coming up on the heels of 8 years of national improvement under a rather charismatic democratic president, going against a batshit retard who appeals to the most prominent aspects of the conservative cultural movement.
thank god bernie is a total shitbag and isn't pulling a nader or else trump would be winning for sure.
as it is, it'll be very very close.
 
I was talking about the same subset. Only a subset of the Republican subset are willing to vote for Trump no matter what. They won't vote Democrat, of course, but staying home or voting third party is as irrelevant a move for them as it is for everyone else.
i think you overestimate the subset that will vote for trump.
there are large swaths of bored old people in the US that go out and vote because they have nothing better to do with their lives, and those idiots are going to vote trump in droves.
the same optimistic "there's no way that people are going to vote for this idiot" mentality was present in every election since 2000, and except for 2004 and 2012 every election has been pretty close.

i'd hope that you're right and that there's going to be republican voter apathy, but i doubt it... just like i doubt that there WON'T be democrat voter apathy, because in their own way democratic voters are just as fucking stupid as republican voters, simply for different reasons.

The man is done and that's even without the even nastier tapes and revelations coming out against him over the next couple of weeks.
could be, but this is a voting bloc that came out in droves for bush twice. i think you're failing to give sufficient credit to their stupidity.
 
Trumpers will love Trump, but the minefield will be his undoing.
i just have to continue to disagree with you on this.

i mean i suppose it's possible that trump's... trumpiness... will result in voter apathy and reduce the percentage of the republican bloc of votes, but that will only matter to the extent that the same thing doesn't happen to the democrats.

this election is 2000 all over again: a boring milquetoast centrist democrat coming up on the heels of 8 years of national improvement under a rather charismatic democratic president, going against a batshit retard who appeals to the most prominent aspects of the conservative cultural movement.
thank god bernie is a total shitbag and isn't pulling a nader or else trump would be winning for sure.
as it is, it'll be very very close.

We've got another month to go. By that time, Trump will have made himself toxic.
 
i think you overestimate the subset that will vote for trump.
there are large swaths of bored old people in the US that go out and vote because they have nothing better to do with their lives, and those idiots are going to vote trump in droves.
the same optimistic "there's no way that people are going to vote for this idiot" mentality was present in every election since 2000, and except for 2004 and 2012 every election has been pretty close.

i'd hope that you're right and that there's going to be republican voter apathy, but i doubt it... just like i doubt that there WON'T be democrat voter apathy, because in their own way democratic voters are just as fucking stupid as republican voters, simply for different reasons.

The man is done and that's even without the even nastier tapes and revelations coming out against him over the next couple of weeks.
could be, but this is a voting bloc that came out in droves for bush twice. i think you're failing to give sufficient credit to their stupidity.

Yes, and all of that was reflected in the data leading up to those elections. Similarly, the current attitudes of the US are reflected in the data leading up to this one. The subset which will vote for Trump is a known quantity, as is the subset which will not vote for him and the subset which will actively vote against him. Given that hundreds of thousands of votes have already been cast and close to 40% will be done before election day, the amount of time for that to change is getting smaller and smaller with each passing day.

Trump just has an insurmountable math problem.
 
this whole pile of intellectual faffery is once again predicated on the completely wrong and inexplicably repeated mistake of assuming any of these things are things that trump supporters think are bad.
they are not.

the 50ish% of the US voting population that always vote republican generally find trump to be awesome and the shit he says to be peachy.
you can't have an "ah shit now it's all crumbling down" moment in the trump campaign because that would require any of these things to be objectionable to the people who are going to be voting for him, and none of it is.

i don't understand why "liberals" can't wrap their heads around this.
Trump rarely ever won a majority of Republican votes, so that to me means that only about one quarter of the likely voter supports Trump on a personal level. That leaves the next 15 percent of people that either hate Hillary or the Democrats, but that can only go so far. Then the independents / undecideds etc... that make up the remaining 5 to 10 percent.

Trump has fallen three times prior. 38 points seems to be the breaking point. Trump is floundering at 37 to 40. I think 35 may be the lowest, but it depends on just how much people hate Clinton and will justify anything. It is depressing that 1 in 3 Americans (mostly white men *sigh*) like Trump. But I think a good deal of scrubbing can still happen to lower the people that could actually give a fuck away from Trump. We'll never get his peeps, but we can take some of the others.

An interesting note, if Clinton gets 50+, and Trump gets 35 to 40, that is a 10 to 15 point victory. No one has won by that much since Reagan v Mondale. And it falls to Texas, where if it is within 5 to 8 pt victory, Trump will likely be thrashed in the popular vote as Georgia will likely be even closer, the only two decent sized states he can win.
 
i just have to continue to disagree with you on this.

i mean i suppose it's possible that trump's... trumpiness... will result in voter apathy and reduce the percentage of the republican bloc of votes, but that will only matter to the extent that the same thing doesn't happen to the democrats.

this election is 2000 all over again: a boring milquetoast centrist democrat coming up on the heels of 8 years of national improvement under a rather charismatic democratic president, going against a batshit retard who appeals to the most prominent aspects of the conservative cultural movement.
thank god bernie is a total shitbag and isn't pulling a nader or else trump would be winning for sure.
as it is, it'll be very very close.

We've got another month to go. By that time, Trump will have made himself toxic.
And that'd be nerve gas toxic, not just toxic toxic. It is incredibly depressing that we needed to reach nerve gas toxic to get this asshole out. The big trouble is people that support him are deluded into thinking America thinks like they do. They have even talked revolution, in public, such at a Pence rally. I was always a bit worried about how a mere Trump nominee position could harm our nation's spirit.
 
The tape with Trump has a few aspects to it, and some people are losing touch with the important parts.

There is general lewdness - who cares...

There is using studliness to male bond - slightly concerning for a 59 year old to still be like this...

Using power over women to male bond - getting creepy...

Talking about how hot a woman is - who cares...

Talking about automatic consent because of fame or wealth or not even asking or getting non verbal cues before proceeding - Fuck this creep...
 
The tape with Trump has a few aspects to it, and some people are losing touch with the important parts.

There is general lewdness - who cares...

There is using studliness to male bond - slightly concerning for a 59 year old to still be like this...

Using power over women to male bond - getting creepy...

Talking about how hot a woman is - who cares...

Talking about automatic consent because of fame or wealth or not even asking or getting non verbal cues before proceeding - Fuck this creep...

For this to become acceptable and even admirable behavior for a significant portion of the country is very worrisome. They've been able to rationalize it as an small price to pay for reforming government. I think that's why so many conservative establishment types are at the point where they're willing to throw the election to Hillary. It would be a revelation for them to also realize that they've encouraged the creation of this environment, and that their strategy of never compromise leads to ruin. After 150 years it's time to learn the lessons of the Civil War.
 
The tape with Trump has a few aspects to it, and some people are losing touch with the important parts.

There is general lewdness - who cares...

There is using studliness to male bond - slightly concerning for a 59 year old to still be like this...

Using power over women to male bond - getting creepy...

Talking about how hot a woman is - who cares...

Talking about automatic consent because of fame or wealth or not even asking or getting non verbal cues before proceeding - Fuck this creep...

For this to become acceptable and even admirable behavior for a significant portion of the country is very worrisome. They've been able to rationalize it as an small price to pay for reforming government. I think that's why so many conservative establishment types are at the point where they're willing to throw the election to Hillary. It would be a revelation for them to also realize that they've encouraged the creation of this environment, and that their strategy of never compromise leads to ruin. After 150 years it's time to learn the lessons of the Civil War.
Some people think with thoughts and some people think with feelings. Intellectuals will vote Clinton. Tit and vagina grabbers will vote Trump. The same folks who went gaga over Palin are going gaga over Trump, something I see everyday.
 
People are already voting in some states. Early vote tends to favor Democrats, but any votes that are already cast are locked in regardless of what happens between now & when the polls close. I think Trump has probably lost this one, but I don't think people who are left of center should consider it over until the polls close.
 
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