The Race For 2024

[lpetrich]

 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries - lists Joe Biden as a candidate that withdrew from the race.

RFK Jr.’s Poll Numbers Took a Hit After Biden Dropped Out | National News | U.S. News

Prior to President Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance in late June, Kennedy was sitting nicely at around 14-16% in national polls in a race with Biden, former President Donald Trump and other third-party candidates.

This was in spite of unfavorable press that included his admission of previously having a parasitic brain worm and a July Vanity Fair article alleging he sexually assaulted a former family babysitter and posed with a burned dog carcass. (For what it’s worth, Kennedy said the dog photo was actually of a goat.)

As if his anti-vaxxism isn't bad enough. He claims to be concerned about the safety and efficacy of vaccines, but has he every found one that is acceptable to him?

But now, in a collection of national polls conducted since Biden dropped out of the presidential race on July 21, Kennedy is polling much lower. In a Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 23-25, Kennedy polled at 4% in a match with Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, now the Democratic nominee, and other third-party and independent candidates. A New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted July 22-24, had Kennedy at 6% in a race between Harris, Trump and third-party candidates. And a Quinnipiac University survey, conducted July 19-21, came up with the same result, with Kennedy at 6% against Harris, Trump and third-party candidates.

The Wall Street Journal has a steep paywall, but the others are more accessible.

Cross-Tabs: July 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide - The New York Times and 7/22/24 - 2024 Race: Trump vs. Harris Too Close To Call, Trump Slightly Ahead In 6-Way Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; 62% Say Biden Dropping Out Of Race Right Thing To Do | Quinnipiac University Poll

• RFK Jr.: Sie 6% Quin 6%
• Jill Stein: Sie <1% Quin 2%
• Cornel West: <0.5% Quin 1%
• Libertarian: Chase Oliver: <1% Quin 1%

Harris vs. Trump vs. RFK Jr. polls - The Hill and DDHQ - also shows RFK Jr. declining.

 

[lpetrich]

Third-party or independent candidates often fall short of early polls | Pew Research Center

But U.S. political history tells us that third-party and independent candidates usually finish a lot lower than where they start.

We examined preelection polls in six presidential contests that featured significant third-party or independent candidates, then reviewed those candidates’ actual shares of the popular vote in the general election.

Not only did support for third-party and independent candidates tend to decline over the course of their campaigns, but their vote shares often came in lower than polls suggested they might.

 

[southernhybrid]

Then a bunch of people who couldn't get into the rally, due to it reaching capacity, claimed they were purposely being kept outside. Gee. Don't they know anything about the safety issues with over filling a stadium. They tried to blame U. of Georgia for being to liberal to let them in or some bullshit like that. There were some anti Trump protesters outside, so the police had to put up fencing to keep the two groups apart. At least there was no violence. That was the best part.

Video I've seen of the rally showed lots of empty seats.

I saw that too, hours after I posted the above, so I have no idea why so many Trumpers were on the street complaining that they couldn't get in. Maybe they were too late. Who knows?

 

[Shadowy Man]

Video I've seen of the rally showed lots of empty seats.

I saw that too, hours after I posted the above, so I have no idea why so many Trumpers were on the street complaining that they couldn't get in. Maybe they were too late. Who knows?

considering who their cult leader is wouldn’t it just be safest to assume they are simply lying?

 

[southernhybrid]

Video I've seen of the rally showed lots of empty seats.

I saw that too, hours after I posted the above, so I have no idea why so many Trumpers were on the street complaining that they couldn't get in. Maybe they were too late. Who knows?

considering who their cult leader is wouldn’t it just be safest to assume they are simply lying?

Maybe, but I'm sure they would have rather been inside with their cult leader listening to his lies. I saw them standing in the street bitching that they weren't permitted inside. My guess is that they had already started the rally and weren't letting anyone else in. They weren't in the thousands, more like a few hundred at most, from what I could see. I saw the police putting up barriers between the cultists and some groups who were protesting Trump. It's not that important to be honest. It was just WEIRD!

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Video I've seen of the rally showed lots of empty seats.

I saw that too, hours after I posted the above, so I have no idea why so many Trumpers were on the street complaining that they couldn't get in. Maybe they were too late. Who knows?

considering who their cult leader is wouldn’t it just be safest to assume they are simply lying?

Maybe, but I'm sure they would have rather been inside with their cult leader listening to his lies. I saw them standing in the street bitching that they weren't permitted inside. My guess is that they had already started the rally and weren't letting anyone else in. They weren't in the thousands, more like a few hundred at most, from what I could see. I saw the police putting up barriers between the cultists and some groups who were protesting Trump. It's not that important to be honest. It was just WEIRD!

I imagine security protocols might be getting followed more tightly at the moment.

 

[southernhybrid]

 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries - lists Joe Biden as a candidate that withdrew from the race.

RFK Jr.’s Poll Numbers Took a Hit After Biden Dropped Out | National News | U.S. News

Prior to President Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance in late June, Kennedy was sitting nicely at around 14-16% in national polls in a race with Biden, former President Donald Trump and other third-party candidates.

This was in spite of unfavorable press that included his admission of previously having a parasitic brain worm and a July Vanity Fair article alleging he sexually assaulted a former family babysitter and posed with a burned dog carcass. (For what it’s worth, Kennedy said the dog photo was actually of a goat.)

As if his anti-vaxxism isn't bad enough. He claims to be concerned about the safety and efficacy of vaccines, but has he every found one that is acceptable to him?

But now, in a collection of national polls conducted since Biden dropped out of the presidential race on July 21, Kennedy is polling much lower. In a Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 23-25, Kennedy polled at 4% in a match with Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, now the Democratic nominee, and other third-party and independent candidates. A New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted July 22-24, had Kennedy at 6% in a race between Harris, Trump and third-party candidates. And a Quinnipiac University survey, conducted July 19-21, came up with the same result, with Kennedy at 6% against Harris, Trump and third-party candidates.

The Wall Street Journal has a steep paywall, but the others are more accessible.

Cross-Tabs: July 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide - The New York Times and 7/22/24 - 2024 Race: Trump vs. Harris Too Close To Call, Trump Slightly Ahead In 6-Way Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; 62% Say Biden Dropping Out Of Race Right Thing To Do | Quinnipiac University Poll

• RFK Jr.: Sie 6% Quin 6%
• Jill Stein: Sie <1% Quin 2%
• Cornel West: <0.5% Quin 1%
• Libertarian: Chase Oliver: <1% Quin 1%

Harris vs. Trump vs. RFK Jr. polls - The Hill and DDHQ - also shows RFK Jr. declining.

Let's hope RFK Jr. declines a lot more after he admitted what he did with the dead baby bear in 2014. Eat it or put it in Central Park for amusement WTF man! That guy is as nutty as Trump!

 

[Elixir]

Each of Trump's four suggested budgets over his 4 years demanded large cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Especially Medicare. I think it would be grand if the Democrats brought that up again, and again, and again. That would screw Trump royally. But would also be an invitation for the other GOP candidates to promise they would not support such cuts. Opening them up to demands to explain just how they planned to balance the budget as per Right Winger propaganda demands.

I hope to see a very aggressive last 60 days from the Dems, with lots of facts like that being repeated ad nauseum. And plenty of imagery. Like Charlie Sikes’ quip “Trump is in the Fat Elvis stage of his career”.
I think “Fat Elvis” might have some sticking power, but if not, something will.

 

[Politesse]

FD Signifier has posted a short video with some brief thoughts on the Kamala campaign and what we have to look forward to (or look out for) under a Kamala presidency:



Worth a watch. It's easy to turn on the news and find some uninformed hot takes on "black vote", but it can be harder to find a nuanced, measured view of how the future of Black America is shaped by the passing presidential elections.

 

[ZiprHead]

Bitcoin price tanks hours after Trump floats using it as US reserve asset

The cryptocurrency plummeted amid global market turmoil after the former president suggested it could be used to pay off U.S. national debt.

www.newsweek.com

 

[lpetrich]

Third-party or independent candidates often fall short of early polls | Pew Research Center

But U.S. political history tells us that third-party and independent candidates usually finish a lot lower than where they start.

We examined preelection polls in six presidential contests that featured significant third-party or independent candidates, then reviewed those candidates’ actual shares of the popular vote in the general election.

Not only did support for third-party and independent candidates tend to decline over the course of their campaigns, but their vote shares often came in lower than polls suggested they might.

That's because the two major parties' candidates are the only ones likely to win. Duverger's law bites.

 

[marc]

 

[TV and credit cards]

Those were some pretty good speeches all around In Philly. Shapiro did a hell of a warm up. I was worried Harris and Walz might have a difficult time carrying the audience after that but they did quite well. I liked that Walz made a "couch" reference toward Vance. I'm getting a Don Rickles vibe from this guy, not just his looks but his mannerisms.

 

[ZiprHead]

Trump campaign is saying that Walz wants to allow convicted felons to vote, which they believe is bad.

I guess they don't want Trump to vote either.

 

[ZiprHead]

Trump was all against electric cars. until he wasn't.

Donald Trump has for months denigrated electric vehicles, arguing their supporters should “rot in hell” and that assisting the nascent industry is “lunacy”. He now appears to have somewhat shifted his view thanks to the support of Elon Musk, the world’s richest person.

“I’m for electric cars, I have to be because Elon endorsed me very strongly,” Trump, the Republican nominee for US president, told supporters at a rally in Atlanta, Georgia, on Saturday.

Trump says he has ‘no choice’ but to back EVs after Musk endorsement

Ex-president, who previously denigrated electric vehicles, says they are suitable for a ‘small slice’ of the population

www.theguardian.com

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

“I’m for electric cars, I have to be because Elon endorsed me very strongly,” Trump, the Republican nominee for US president, told supporters at a rally in Atlanta, Georgia, on Saturday.

Trump says he has ‘no choice’ but to back EVs after Musk endorsement

Ex-president, who previously denigrated electric vehicles, says they are suitable for a ‘small slice’ of the population

www.theguardian.com

Effectively says he was paid off.

 

[ZiprHead]

Michigan vote poll:
Harris 53
Trump 42

 

[ZiprHead]

This is real. This is crazy.

Donald J. Trump
@realDonald Trump
What are the chances that Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST President in the history of the U.S., whose Presidency was Unconstitutionally STOLEN from him by Kamabla, Barrack HUSSEIN Obama, Crazy Nancy Pelosi, Shifty Adam Schiff, Cryin' Chuck Schumer, and others on the Lunatic Left, CRASHES the Democrat National Convention and tries to take back the Nomination, beginning with challenging me to another DEBATE. He feels that he made a historically tragic mistake by handing over the U.S. Presidency, a COUP, to the people in the World he most hates, and he wants it back, NOW!!!

 

[abaddon]

This is real. This is crazy.

Donald J. Trump
@realDonald Trump
What are the chances that Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST President in the history of the U.S., whose Presidency was Unconstitutionally STOLEN from him by Kamabla, Barrack HUSSEIN Obama, Crazy Nancy Pelosi, Shifty Adam Schiff, Cryin' Chuck Schumer, and others on the Lunatic Left, CRASHES the Democrat National Convention and tries to take back the Nomination, beginning with challenging me to another DEBATE. He feels that he made a historically tragic mistake by handing over the U.S. Presidency, a COUP, to the people in the World he most hates, and he wants it back, NOW!!!

Translation: "I want Biden back! NOW!"

 

[Elixir]