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The Race For 2024

No. Silver's site is his own, it's subscriber based.
 
Still no. He does work for Polymarket but his forecast site is his own, it's not owned by Polymarket. It's a subscriber based substack.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Elixir said:
Toni said:
tariffs can make imports more expensive, boosting sales of domestic products
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Uh… no. Not unless there’s price regulation. If imported commodity widgets go up from $1 to $1.15, domestic $.99 widgets will go up to $1.14, maintaining their competitive edge while boosting profits. Once that price hike spreads through the entire consumer sector, what you have is no change in trade balance, but lots of inflation.
The billionaire’s $500m yacht will cost another $75m if made domestically, but Mr Billionaire doesn’t care; he’ll just get it built in Korea.
Trumpsuckers don’t get the fact that billionaires are not hurt by inflation. Tariffs just make them richer.
The price of groceries isn’t a significant fraction of their cost of living, and the VAST bulk of their wealth is not in cash, it’s in holdings that will go up in value right along with the inflation that cripples the poor and middle class, who need to CASH paychecks to pay expenses.
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Price regulation works well in areas the Government is footing the bill. Health care, construction, should be military industrial complex. But overall? Price hikes only work if corporations conspire together, and that already isn't legal.

Yes, prices would be nice if they were lower, but the Government can't exactly set prices across the board. I think Toni is closer, in that consolidation isn't helping. Yes, we get some benefits. Google has given up Google Earth, which is a remarkable product for us proles. They've expanded fiber optic availability. But in the end, when there are fewer choices, prices and ingenuity suffer. And finally, some prices needed to go up. People need to be paid. Consolidation led to other methods of cutting costs, labor. Overall, regulating prices is tough because prices are a final line item after a lot of production that contains many variables.
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I certainly wasn’t advocating for price controls. I simply think tariffs are anti-competitive. Certainly “blanket tariffs” promised by Dolt45 won’t give “American business” an edge, they will give American billionaires a windfall, and American business can suck an egg.

When you say “some prices must go up”, that’s not an option. ALL prices must go up, and stability is not stasis. When Trump says idiotic plan is to “end inflation” (which is not even a plan, it’s a pipedream) he might as well say “I want economic stagnation”. He is an economic (among most other things) ignoramus. Growth NEEDS some inflation, which is why the fed targets 2-3% rather than zero.
 
Tigers! said:
For some reason in Australia we are not being drowned in a torrent of nonsense about the forthcoming election. Granted still too long to go. This could change.
Still getting a lot of blather and bluster but not like in 2020.
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I spoke too soon.
The torrent has begun in Australia :flooffrown:

Just heard of some spat between Linda Ronstadt and Trump. Too much information.

@TomC - Don't bother coming here mate. Its going to be noisy about your election.
 
Seen elsewhere...
From the man who brought you: "I lost the state of Arizona because I just couldn't stop constantly insulting the dead war hero the entire state loved."

Trump: Calls Haitians dog and cat eaters.
Trump's Margin of Victory in Florida in 2020: 370,000 votes.
Haitian American Population of Florida: 544,000.
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Uh oh...
 
ZiprHead said:
Seen elsewhere...
From the man who brought you: "I lost the state of Arizona because I just couldn't stop constantly insulting the dead war hero the entire state loved."

Trump: Calls Haitians dog and cat eaters.
Trump's Margin of Victory in Florida in 2020: 370,000 votes.
Haitian American Population of Florida: 544,000.
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Uh oh...
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Maybe it’s just the Haitians in Ohio that are poisoning the blood of this nation.
 
Tigers! said:
Tigers! said:
For some reason in Australia we are not being drowned in a torrent of nonsense about the forthcoming election. Granted still too long to go. This could change.
Still getting a lot of blather and bluster but not like in 2020.
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I spoke too soon.
The torrent has begun in Australia :flooffrown:

Just heard of some spat between Linda Ronstadt and Trump. Too much information.

@TomC - Don't bother coming here mate. Its going to be noisy about your election.
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It seems like Aussies enjoy yammering about US politics just as much, if not more, than we do. As an occasional traveler to your fair nation, I'm always surprised by how tuned in the average Australian seems to be toward our political drama, and quick to inform me of their opinion on it.
 
Betfair shows Harris in the lead by 52% - 46½%. She has only a 1-point lead at Polymarket.

One national poll that's been updated since the debate is Ipsos/Reuters, now 47-42 for Harris. Sounds good ... until you notice she was ahead 45-41 in the same poll August 21-28. Also, that poll rounds each number to nearest percent, so what appears to be a 4 to 5 improvement MIGHT be a 4.9 to 4.1 loss!

That Ipsos/Reuters poll also asked who won the debate. Harris won that 50-24 among registered voters, but lost 15-53 among Republicans!

Demographics from Activate poll:
Harris leads by 7 points for age < 50; Trump by 4 points for 65+. The race is neck-and-neck among 50-64.
Trump leads by 14 points among males.
Harris leads by 16 points among females.
Harris leads by 16 points for Urban, 12 points for Suburban; but Trump has a whopping 26-point lead among Rural.
Trump leads by 6 among Hispanics, and by 6 among whites. Harris leads by 52 among blacks.
Activate doesn't report by education level, but we know Trump "loves the uneducated people."
 
Shadowy Man said:
Jason Harvestdancer said:
Shadowy Man said:
I wasn’t addressing that crime. I was addressing the one you think is political lawfare. I was countering that assertion with actual evidence that was presented in Congress and other venues. You have seemed to address that yet. His other actual and potential crimes are other topics. There seem to be too many to keep track of.
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You are absolutely right, I HAVE addressed that yet.
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Whatever. It was a typo. It doesn’t seem you’ve addressed the actual evidence of what you are claiming is just politically driven “lawfare”. Thats my point.
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I thought it was an accidental admission of the truth. I should have known better.

Shadowy Man said:
Jason Harvestdancer said:
Now maybe you can look at another crime, the being avoided.
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Sure I can. There are many crimes Trump has committed. But before we move on to the next one why can’t we finish this one first? Unless you’re willing to admit it is a valid crime with indicting and trying him for.
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He didn't incite the riot in the Capital. He told people to peacefully go home. He did not tell them to enter the Capital. He did not tell them to invade the Capital. He did not tell them to steal the lectern. He did not tell them to go into Nancy Pelosi's office and take her laptop. He didn't even tell the police to shoot one person and cause the one death that occurred during the incident.

He did, however, order the strike that killed Nawar Al-Awlaki. But you don't want to talk about that for some reason.
 
Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris:
Taylor Swift | Like many of you, I watched the debate tonight. ... | Instagram
Like many of you, I watched the debate tonight. If you haven’t already, now is a great time to do your research on the issues at hand and the stances these candidates take on the topics that matter to you the most. As a voter, I make sure to watch and read everything I can about their proposed policies and plans for this country.

Recently I was made aware that AI of ‘me’ falsely endorsing Donald Trump’s presidential run was posted to his site. It really conjured up my fears around AI, and the dangers of spreading misinformation. It brought me to the conclusion that I need to be very transparent about my actual plans for this election as a voter. The simplest way to combat misinformation is with the truth.

I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 Presidential Election. I’m voting for @kamalaharris because she fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them. I think she is a steady-handed, gifted leader and I believe we can accomplish so much more in this country if we are led by calm and not chaos. I was so heartened and impressed by her selection of running mate @timwalz, who has been standing up for LGBTQ+ rights, IVF, and a woman’s right to her own body for decades.

I’ve done my research, and I’ve made my choice. Your research is all yours to do, and the choice is yours to make. I also want to say, especially to first time voters: Remember that in order to vote, you have to be registered! I also find it’s much easier to vote early. I’ll link where to register and find early voting dates and info in my story.

With love and hope,

Taylor Swift
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Taylor Swift got this response:
Elon Musk on X: "Fine Taylor … you win … I will give you a child and guard your cats with my life" / X

Is he offering some child for her to adopt? Or does he want to make her pregnant?

Elon Musk’s daughter blasts his ‘heinous incel nonsense’ as he offers Taylor Swift a baby after Harris endorsement | The Independent
“Elon responding to tonight by telling Taylor Swift he’ll impregnate her is peak weirdo and creeper behavior,” one social media user said.

“This tweet just takes things to a whole new level of strange. It’s not even eccentric at this point, just outright unsettling,” another person wrote in response.

Wilson legally changed her name when she turned 18, ditching her father’s surname because she does not “wish to be related to my biological father in any way, shape or form,” court filings from 2022 said.

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The Tesla CEO misgendered Wilson, used her dead name, and described her coming out as transgender as being “killed by the woke mind virus.”

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Wilson has previously been publicly critical of her father, calling him a “serial adulterer” who is “stupid,” “desperate” and “not a family man” earlier this month.
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Pro-Trump podcaster Dave Rubin sparks outerage over Taylor Swift comment
After mentioning Elon Musk's tweet about giving Taylor Swift a child,
“So, he’s mocking, he’s exposing the ridiculousness,” Rubin said of the Musk tweet.
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then
“It’s like, Taylor Swift, you are a young, pretty girl. Do you know what the gang members from Venezuela do to young, pretty girls? It ain’t pretty.”
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My first thought was
Сколько они ему заплатили?
How much did they pay him?
 
Jason Harvestdancer said:
He didn't incite the riot in the Capital.
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Jason Harvestdancer said:
He told people to peacefully go home.
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Only after hours of inaction to defend the Capitol.

Jason Harvestdancer said:
He did not tell them to enter the Capital. He did not tell them to invade the Capital. He did not tell them to steal the lectern. He did not tell them to go into Nancy Pelosi's office and take her laptop. He didn't even tell the police to shoot one person and cause the one death that occurred during the incident.
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And I’m not claiming those are the things he’s guilty of related to January 6th.

Jason Harvestdancer said:
He did, however, order the strike that killed Nawar Al-Awlaki. But you don't want to talk about that for some reason.
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Well, we really aren’t done addressing all the evidence of wrongdoing related to January 6th. When we do we can move on to the next topic.

we can talk about that if you want but it seems more of a dodge than a matter of true good faith discussion.
 
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