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The Race For 2024

A Trump conviction will doom his election.

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The two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll asked respondents if they would vote for Trump for president next year if he were "convicted of a felony crime by a jury." Among Republicans, 45% said they would not vote for him, more than the 35% who said they would. The rest said they didn't know.

Asked if they would vote for Trump if he were "currently serving time in prison," 52% of Republicans said they would not, compared to 28% who said they would.
.......

www.reuters.com

Exclusive: About half of US Republicans could spurn Trump if he is convicted, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows

About half of Republicans would not vote for Donald Trump if he were convicted of a felony, a sign of the severe risks his legal problems pose for his 2024 U.S. presidential bid, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Thursday.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
28% who said they would.
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Cheerful Charlie said:
35% who said they would.
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These numbers are terrifying. Over a quarter of Republicans are saying that they would support their candidate if he was in jail having been convicted of crimes; And over a third say they would support him if convicted but not jailed.

These are not trivial numbers of people. Sure, they're a minority; But they're a significant minority, even when you consider that Republicans are a slight minority of Americans.

They're more than enough to totally fuck up any country, given their explicit disregard for its legal institutions.

How can a country survive when so many of its citizens (and an even larger proportion of its voters) are in contempt of the law?
 
From The Hill

.....
The magistrate judge handling former President Trump’s arraignment on charges related to trying to overturn the 2020 election warned him Thursday against bribing or influencing witnesses.

U.S. Magistrate Judge Moxila Upadhyaya reminded Trump during the arraignment proceedings that bribing, influencing or retaliating against witnesses is a crime.
.....

Judge Tanya Chutkan is scheduled on August 28 to set a trial date For Trump. It remains to be seen what will happen to people not named Donald J. Trump who threaten or try to bribe witnesses. Or later on, jury members.
 
bilby said:
Cheerful Charlie said:
28% who said they would.
Click to expand...
Cheerful Charlie said:
35% who said they would.
Click to expand...
These numbers are terrifying. Over a quarter of Republicans are saying that they would support their candidate if he was in jail having been convicted of crimes; And over a third say they would support him if convicted but not jailed.

These are not trivial numbers of people. Sure, they're a minority; But they're a significant minority, even when you consider that Republicans are a slight minority of Americans.

They're more than enough to totally fuck up any country, given their explicit disregard for its legal institutions.

How can a country survive when so many of its citizens (and an even larger proportion of its voters) are in contempt of the law?
Click to expand...
My son believes that there is a critical fraction of the population that can be in contempt of the law before a nation will collapse and that we have crossed that threshold. I think you are correct. We are screwed. English history teaches us that civil wars are dark and bloody.
 
bilby said:
Cheerful Charlie said:
28% who said they would.
Click to expand...
Cheerful Charlie said:
35% who said they would.
Click to expand...
These numbers are terrifying. Over a quarter of Republicans are saying that they would support their candidate if he was in jail having been convicted of crimes; And over a third say they would support him if convicted but not jailed.

These are not trivial numbers of people. Sure, they're a minority; But they're a significant minority, even when you consider that Republicans are a slight minority of Americans.

They're more than enough to totally fuck up any country, given their explicit disregard for its legal institutions.

How can a country survive when so many of its citizens (and an even larger proportion of its voters) are in contempt of the law?
Click to expand...

The numbers are scary, but what do these surveys based on hypothetical questions really mean? Do they reflect the way people will actually vote, or do they reflect a visceral reaction to the way the poll questions are worded? A lot of Trump supporters buy into the conspiracy theory that Donald Trump's sins are being exaggerated and misrepresented by his political enemies. But, if the hypothetical of Trump being in jail were to become real, what would they really do at that point? The conditions that led up to his jailing would certainly be additional information that wasn't included in the poll question. A lot of them probably wouldn't even bother to vote, depending on the way their favored sources of information and their circle of acquaintances were treating the situation. The US tends to have very low voter turnout rates, and people often lose their motivation to vote, if they believe that their candidates have little or no chance of winning. I think that how people actually behave can be very different from how they think they will behave in response to these survey questions that are often designed to elicit provocative responses.
 
lostone said:
bilby said:
Cheerful Charlie said:
28% who said they would.
Click to expand...
Cheerful Charlie said:
35% who said they would.
Click to expand...
These numbers are terrifying. Over a quarter of Republicans are saying that they would support their candidate if he was in jail having been convicted of crimes; And over a third say they would support him if convicted but not jailed.

These are not trivial numbers of people. Sure, they're a minority; But they're a significant minority, even when you consider that Republicans are a slight minority of Americans.

They're more than enough to totally fuck up any country, given their explicit disregard for its legal institutions.

How can a country survive when so many of its citizens (and an even larger proportion of its voters) are in contempt of the law?
Click to expand...
My son believes that there is a critical fraction of the population that can be in contempt of the law before a nation will collapse and that we have crossed that threshold. I think you are correct. We are screwed. English history teaches us that civil wars are dark and bloody.
Click to expand...
The civil war will not take a traditional form, and is already underway. (To see how it’s going, google “USA gun deaths”, and “USA life expectancy” - and check the historical data)

It is guaranteed to be a protracted conflict, even if sheer voter numbers can keep the zombies from overrunning the compound for the moment, or even indefinitely. Rooting out the stupid and the malicious might never happen at all.
 
www.cnbc.com

DeSantis' biggest donor says he won't give more money unless changes are made

Hotel entrepreneur Robert Bigelow told Reuters on Friday he will not donate more money unless the Florida governor attracts new major donors and adopts a more moderate approach.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
Hotel entrepreneur Robert Bigelow, the biggest individual donor to a group supporting Ron DeSantis’ presidential bid, told Reuters on Friday he will not donate more money unless the Florida governor attracts new major donors and adopts a more moderate approach.

The comments by Bigelow, who gave $20 million to the pro-DeSantis “Never Back Down” super PAC in March, underscore donor concerns about the Florida governor’s struggling campaign, which has been unable to make a dent in former President Donald Trump’s huge lead for the 2024 Republican nomination.

“He does need to shift to get to moderates. He’ll lose if he doesn’t ... Extremism isn’t going to get you elected,” Bigelow said in an interview, adding that he had communicated these concerns to DeSantis’ campaign.
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The Sherman family couldn't even seem choose what paranormal activity to claim was happening on the ranch. Werewolves? UFOs? Ghostly voices and apparitions?

Or just a townie family who spooked themselves silly at night living on the high desert, and the UFO enthusiast they low key conned into overpaying for the ranch when they'd had enough of it?

You decide, I suppose. Be careful researching it, investigating paranormal activity can land you on some sketchy looking Nigerian urls or suspicuous pdfs.
 
Some time I should tell you all about the ghost car I saw out on a highway not far for there, though. It was freaky. Not aliens though.
 
scombrid said:
Is this the skinwalker ranch ufo bullshit Bigelow?
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Skinwalker ranch sounds like a nudist campground.
Skinwalker ranch in "Bigelow" sounds like a gay male facility.

Got any contact info?

Asking for a friend...
Tom
 
TomC said:
Skinwalker ranch sounds like a nudist campground.
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Having grown up knowing what a "skinwalker" was, I sort of see what you mean but cannot relate at all, lol!

I would not recommend contacting a skinwalker in any way, as just a phone call might be considered permission to enter your home, which is a big no-no. It's actually the reason why they slaughter livestock, the concerned landowner goes outside to investigate the noises and foolishly leaves the door open -- the "invitation" that allows the witch to get inside their home when they return, and then...

...say it with me, kids....

...and they were never heard from again!

(Or if you're talking to someone who's actually Dineh, your whole family ends up going to the dark. Bad times. Actually makes more sense to me, as it would explain how there are witnesses despite everyone supposedly disappearing.)
 
Inside the deepening rivalry between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and California Gov. Gavin Newsom | AP News
California Gov. Gavin Newsom says there’s no chance “on God’s green earth” he’s running for president in 2024, but he wants to make clear that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is running, is “weak” and “undisciplined” and “will be crushed by Donald Trump.”

DeSantis, meanwhile, likes to mock Newsom’s apparent “fixation” on Florida while insisting that the Democratic governor’s “leftist government” is destroying California.

...
As they jab at each other’s policies and personalities through comments in the press and on social media, the governors are scoring points with their respective political bases, raising money and expanding their national brands.

Both men issued fundraising appeals Monday going after the other by name.
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Is GN trying to position himself for a Presidential run in 2028?
All the while, Newsom’s team has been moving deliberately to avoid the perception that he’s running a shadow presidential campaign just as Biden ramps up his political activities.
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That is, a presidential campaign in all but name.
Indeed, veteran Democratic consultant Roy Behr, whose clients included former California Sen. Barbara Boxer, said the two governors are engaged in what could become an early preview of the 2028 presidential contest.

...
Sacramento-based Democratic consultant Andrew Acosta said he expected the ongoing rivalry to continue given that it’s beneficial for both politicians with their core supporters. He described Newsom and DeSantis as “frenemies.”

“They both get points off it,” Acosta said. “There is a hard core of voters on both sides who think this is great.”
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Gavin Newsom's spokesperson hits Ron DeSantis on debate proposal - POLITICO - "Gov. Gavin Newsom’s camp blasted Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ proposed rules, arguing that they are an attempt to hide his weaknesses as a candidate."
“What a joke,” Newsom spokesperson Nathan Click said in a statement. “Desantis’ counterproposal is littered with crutches to hide his insecurity and ineptitude — swapping opening statements with a hype video, cutting down the time he needs to be on stage, adding cheat notes and a cheering section.”

“Ron should be able to stand on his own two feet,” he added. “It’s no wonder Trump is kicking his ass.”

POLITICO Playbook exclusively reported on Saturday the DeSantis team’s rules proposal, which includes a prerecorded video in lieu of opening remarks and a live audience instead of an empty room.
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lpetrich said:
Is GN trying to position himself for a Presidential run in 2028?
Click to expand...
Partly that. He is certainly young enough that waiting for 2028 is no problem for him.
But he is also positioning himself for 2024, should Biden be forced to drop out. That would mean a truncated primary season, perhaps severely so, depending on the timing. And then it is imperative that one be well positioned. Kamala is a presumptive frontrunner in such a situation, being Veep, but she is such a flawed candidate she would by no means be a shoo-in for the nomination.
All the while, Newsom’s team has been moving deliberately to avoid the perception that he’s running a shadow presidential campaign just as Biden ramps up his political activities.
Click to expand...
Understandable. Newsom would not want to appear disloyal to Biden, so he is framing it as a 2028 run, which it will be barring unknown but certainly not unforeseen eventualities.
That is, a presidential campaign in all but name.
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That it is. I have my doubts that he can go the distance in 2028. California has a shit-ton of very visible problems, as does the city he used to run - San Francisco. At the same time, the idiotic and racially divisive "reparations task force" was his idea and I think it will be the albatross around his neck.

I think he will have a much better chance in 2024 for the nomination at least, should the primary open up. The field will be much less crowded, Newsom has already done a lot of the work, and he has the name recognition. Plus, he would benefit from the corrupt bargain Biden struck with Clyburn, one part of which is moving SC primary to be the first.
 
Derec said:
That it is. I have my doubts that he can go the distance in 2028. California has a shit-ton of very visible problems, as does the city he used to run - San Francisco. At the same time, the idiotic and racially divisive "reparations task force" was his idea and I think it will be the albatross around his neck.
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this kind of thing hasn’t prevented Ron DeSantis from running on the opposite side. And he’s arguably in second place behind an indicted criminal. It makes me think that if DeSantis is a viable candidate for Republicans, Newsom should be at least as viable as a Democratic candidate.
 
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