So, we have a new ruling in Texas that asks the question, "Are the almost assuredly safe, but slowly returning back to purple Texas 40 EV's potentially up for grabs?" A lower court granted emergency access to abortion services for a woman to manage a doomed pregnancy, which led to the State Attorney General lobbing threats and going to the State Supreme Court. The State Supreme Court issued a nonsensical ruling which they noted was to help provide guidance for doctors regarding when they could authorize an abortion, but they were effectively saying it could almost never be done.
The ruling was less bad because it refused to let a doctor be a doctor, but because they insisted they weren't meddling and that if you needed an abortion to not die, you'd be fine. But this ruling and AG Paxton's reaction almost guarantees that short of being on death's door, there was no viable path to an abortion regardless how untenable your pregnancy was medically. The attitude of the ruling was so two faced, it has to scare people (women) in Texas.
So much to make 2024 a toss-up? Trump won Texas by 6 pts. He received only
52% of the vote. And yes, a margin of 0.1% verses 6% verses 20% provides the same number of EVs. But in a state where immigrants are a thing, population shifts as saw in Virginia is a thing, and seeing Texas trending back to purple, is this ruling enough to push Texas into a state that might need to be fought for. Trump, if he is the candidate, is trying to play the anti-ban card, but "he" "nominated" the justices that broke Roe v Wade. He is complicit in this. He can't walk away from it.
Obviously, losing Texas would be devastating and make the road to the White House impossible without turning four midwest states! Biden is polling poorly, as has W, Obama, and Trump. But a ruling like this is a stick in the eye to women, who are half the voting electorate. And losing women 3 to 2 or 2 to 1 would make winning much harder.
Bottles stay corked of course, as I have no idea if Texans care enough about this ruling. One thing to consider is if Paxton goes after the woman or the doctor, or even the doctor in the state she went to. These politicians seem to think they are invulnerable.