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The Race For 2024

Trump is going to lose in a landslide, but he will take office on inauguration day because proud Murkins like Swiz will take over the Capitol on certification day, and declare Orange Jesus to be Dictator Forever.
Don't be fucking melodramatic. Trump's only going to be dictator on day one. He'll be the forever God Emperor after that, though.
You really think he would fuck a potato??
 
Ballot harvesting is a thing in its own right so no, it is not known as "voting".
How many ballots have you “harvested” Swiz?
How many people do you know who “harvest” ballots?

WTF IS “ballot harvesting” anyhow?
EDUCATE ME, Swiz!!
It's when people help people to vote. Can't have the fanatics power diluted by the masses!
 
Ballot harvesting is a thing in its own right so no, it is not known as "voting".
How many ballots have you “harvested” Swiz?
How many people do you know who “harvest” ballots?

WTF IS “ballot harvesting” anyhow?
EDUCATE ME, Swiz!!
It's when people help people to vote. Can't have the fanatics power diluted by the masses!
So, you don’t even have to plant ‘em? They just grow and you can harvest them? … are they genetically modified from the original ballots?
Around here they have to be returned in an envelope that has the voter’s signature and a unique numeric identifier on it. What would happen if it got harvested?
I don’t understand the harvesting terror. But then, I can add it to the list of right wing boogeymen, caravans and vermin whose purposes I do understand. Then it makes sense.
 
Vivek Ramaswamy Was Created in a Right-Wing Edgelord Factory - Nov 9 - "The Milo Yiannopoulos-ization of the American right has found its vessel in the shameless, motor-mouthed, conspiracy theory-spouting, millionaire jerk."
In case you missed it, Ramaswamy more than delivered on his promise of an “unhinged” GOP debate performance on Wednesday night. He began by attacking the moderators and saying that they should be replaced by Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson, and Elon Musk. Later, he seemed to call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “Nazi.”

He also referred to Nikki Haley (and probably Ron DeSantis) as “Dick Cheney in three-inch heels.”

In case that wasn’t enough, he also attacked Haley over her daughter’s use of TikTok, prompting boos from the crowd and Haley’s response of, “You’re just scum.”

...
He is part of a generation that came of age politically during the rise of alt-right shitposters. And it shows. He is a chaos agent. He is, perhaps, the next iteration of the Milo Yiannopoulos-ization of the American right.

...
Whereas the old guard seems uncomfortable parroting isolationist MAGA bullshit, Ramaswamy has internalized all the conspiracy theories of the day and recites them shamelessly in rapid-fire style.

...
With his trademark glib manner, Ramaswamy is often wrong but never uncertain. This holds true, even as he confidently espouses positions that are either unfathomably naive or simply stupid—such as wanting to cut a “deal” with Vladimir Putin that would amount to allowing him to keep all the areas of Ukraine he has, heretofore, stolen (as long as he promises not to be friends with China anymore).

RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination
Though Donald Trump continues to be far ahead of the others, Nikki Haley is now neck-and-neck with Ron DeSantis, followed by Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie, and Asa Hutchinson.

Presidential candidates, 2024 - Ballotpedia mentions this obscure Republican candidate: Ryan Binkley presidential campaign, 2024 - Ballotpedia -  2024 United States presidential election - on June 6, someone added mention of his campaign: "Mobile editing is weird, but Ryan Binkley is randomly not mentioned..?? He started running a while ago." The next edit removed that mention: "Spacing; removed non-notable candidate"

Who is likely to drop out after the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries next month? I'm guessing Asa Hutchinson, since he does not seem to have the sense of purpose that Chris Christie has.
 
I have been reading about the insane rantings of Kash Patel. Who vows that evil liberal media must be prosecuted for reporting truthfully about Trump and the GOP.

I am waiting for him to get sued for libel and slander like Guiliani. He is not sane.
 
So, we have a new ruling in Texas that asks the question, "Are the almost assuredly safe, but slowly returning back to purple Texas 40 EV's potentially up for grabs?" A lower court granted emergency access to abortion services for a woman to manage a doomed pregnancy, which led to the State Attorney General lobbing threats and going to the State Supreme Court. The State Supreme Court issued a nonsensical ruling which they noted was to help provide guidance for doctors regarding when they could authorize an abortion, but they were effectively saying it could almost never be done.

The ruling was less bad because it refused to let a doctor be a doctor, but because they insisted they weren't meddling and that if you needed an abortion to not die, you'd be fine. But this ruling and AG Paxton's reaction almost guarantees that short of being on death's door, there was no viable path to an abortion regardless how untenable your pregnancy was medically. The attitude of the ruling was so two faced, it has to scare people (women) in Texas.

So much to make 2024 a toss-up? Trump won Texas by 6 pts. He received only 52% of the vote. And yes, a margin of 0.1% verses 6% verses 20% provides the same number of EVs. But in a state where immigrants are a thing, population shifts as saw in Virginia is a thing, and seeing Texas trending back to purple, is this ruling enough to push Texas into a state that might need to be fought for. Trump, if he is the candidate, is trying to play the anti-ban card, but "he" "nominated" the justices that broke Roe v Wade. He is complicit in this. He can't walk away from it.

Obviously, losing Texas would be devastating and make the road to the White House impossible without turning four midwest states! Biden is polling poorly, as has W, Obama, and Trump. But a ruling like this is a stick in the eye to women, who are half the voting electorate. And losing women 3 to 2 or 2 to 1 would make winning much harder.

Bottles stay corked of course, as I have no idea if Texans care enough about this ruling. One thing to consider is if Paxton goes after the woman or the doctor, or even the doctor in the state she went to. These politicians seem to think they are invulnerable.
 
I hope, and sincerely suspect, that the teams preparing ads and such for the Democrat's election campaigns are planning attack ads around that theme.

While I expect that women, abused by the government, like this one would probably prefer to put it all behind them. But I hope they're willing to go national with their stories. In a big way, TV talk shows and radio interviews and all. Willing to describe how they really wanted a baby, the pregnancy was a medical disaster, then the overreaching government got involved and truly ruined everything.
Tom
 
Nikki Haley is still running. Will Hurd dropped out and endorsed Haley. George Will urged Tim Scott to drop out and endorse Nikki Haley.
Nikki Haley is fucked the moment Trump and his supporters can pronounce her full name. I mean, he still goes on about Barrack Hussein Obama every chance he gets. Republicans as a rule don't like voting for someone whose first name...shall we say isn't likely to be used in a Charlie Brown cartoon from the 60s.

Nikki Haley is strong favorite to get QOPAnon's POTUS nod if Trump drops out.

Republicans hate whoever Trump, Hannity and Carlson tell them to hate. Names like "Hussein" are just hooks to hang the hatred on. With Trump increasingly* likely to be the nominee for POTUS, the Trumplickers in the GOP-debate clown car are mostly just hoping to get Trump to make them Veep. That's all Vivek Ramasmarmy is hoping for.

In addition to Vivek, there are three women in top contention for the Veep nod: Haley, Elise Stefanik and Kristi Noem. Ms. Noem is quite photogenic and an ardent right-winger; Noem vs Harris is the most likely Veep-candidate face-off, according to Betfair. How about Ms. Stefanik? Do Trump and the Lickers regard her as voluptuous or just fat? I suppose only the Orange Pedophile's opinion matters by now.

* - The frontrunners naturally rise in strength as time passes without major crisis, gaffe or health failure. Trump seems correct when he claims that he could be a cold-blooded murderer and still win election; 91 criminal indictments appear to be irrelevant to QOPAnon voters.

From time to time I check the odds implied at Betfair -- about as good a predictor as anything, especially when just doing diachronic analysis.

Trump is 38% to win in November, up from 36% three weeks ago.
Biden is 27.5%, down from 29%.
Newsom is 10%, unchanged.
Haley is 7%, up from 5%.
RFK Jr. still has the #5 slot. DeSantis continues to fall.

Trump is 81.5% to be the GOP nominee, up from 78%. (The race to be Trump's running mate is wide open, with Vivek Ramaswamy having a slight lead.)

Trump moves ever-closer to conviction on felonies and frauds. He says, almost in so many words, that he wants to be an Adolf Hitler look-alike. And his support increases. Truth is indeed stranger than fiction.

Three weeks later, I look at Betfair again. (It's probably as good a predictor as anything now.)
Trump re-election has risen to 42.5%. Biden re-election is 29%. Newsom is down to 6.5% (poor debate performance?). Haley is 6%.
Trump's chance to be the GOP nominee is a whopping 84%.

Other Betfair markets show the Dems as 75% to win the popular vote in November, but 46% to win the electoral vote. It's good to keep the relationship between Popular and Electoral votes in mind: If a poll shows Biden leading nationwide in the popular vote but by only 2% or less, that implies he'd LOSE the electoral vote.
 
Nikki Haley is strong favorite to get QOPAnon's POTUS nod if Trump drops out.

Some MAGA faithful would be fine with it, but most would not support Nimarata née Randhawa Haley. They would feel as though too much is being asked of them. You know...with Nikki/Nimrata being a...you know and also not...you know.

Hey, I'm just sayin' [/Tucker Carlson]
 
Nikki Haley is still running. Will Hurd dropped out and endorsed Haley. George Will urged Tim Scott to drop out and endorse Nikki Haley.
Nikki Haley is fucked the moment Trump and his supporters can pronounce her full name. I mean, he still goes on about Barrack Hussein Obama every chance he gets. Republicans as a rule don't like voting for someone whose first name...shall we say isn't likely to be used in a Charlie Brown cartoon from the 60s.

Nikki Haley is strong favorite to get QOPAnon's POTUS nod if Trump drops out.

Republicans hate whoever Trump, Hannity and Carlson tell them to hate. Names like "Hussein" are just hooks to hang the hatred on.
since we seem to care about names so much, you should have said Nimarata Randhawa “is strong favorite to get…”.
 
Three weeks later, I look at Betfair again. (It's probably as good a predictor as anything now.)
Trump re-election has risen to 42.5%. Biden re-election is 29%.

Which is not that good this far out

Pres%20graph.600x337.png
 
Three weeks later, I look at Betfair again. (It's probably as good a predictor as anything now.)
Trump re-election has risen to 42.5%. Biden re-election is 29%.

Which is not that good this far out

Pres%20graph.600x337.png

The 2020 election as EXTREMELY close. What do you epect? That predictions should be like Biblical prophets or Nostredamus, and know the unknowable?

Wrong. When an election is EXTREMELY close, like 2020 was, a GOOD predictor will show the red and blue lines running neck-and-neck.

The 2024 election is likely to be extremely close, also. Neither I nor Betfair punters have suggested differently.
 
Asa Hutchinson's 2024 campaign isn't breaking through, but he says he's 'full speed ahead' - ABC News
Seated at the front of the semi-circle, Hutchinson introduced his career in public service, which spans four decades, and what he called "a consistent conservative" message. He asked each person if they had a question and, after about an hour, closed with an appeal to help him organize with about a month to go until the first votes are cast in the primary race.

...
"We're open to ideas," Hutchinson told attendees at the library. "Encourage your friends and neighbors ... because that's how they know that we're here. So help us, and we're going to fight this battle. And I think we're going to have some success."
Hard to tell what he wants to do, other than being anti-Trump.
 
Hard to tell what he wants to do, other than being anti-Trump.
What does he want to do? Pretty much everything Republicans wanted to do before they got distracted by the shiny bauble of unlimited power that Trump has dangled before them.
 
Gentlepersons, fear not: your "Leftist" government is on your side:

As Need Rises, Housing Aid Hits Lowest Level in Nearly 25 Years

After decades of rising rents, housing assistance for the poorest tenants has fallen to the lowest level in nearly a quarter-century. The three main federal programs for the neediest renters — public housing, Section 8, and Housing Choice Vouchers — serve 287,000 fewer households than they did at their peak in 2004, a new analysis shows. That is a 6 percent drop, while the number of eligible households without aid grew by about a quarter, to 15 million.

“We’re not just treading water — we’re falling further behind,” said Chris Herbert, the managing director of the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, which prepared the analysis at the request of The New York Times. “That was an eye-opener, even for me.”

In other words, since the second Bush presidency. Obama's legacy has been largely undone by his two successors, on this and many other fronts (healthcare, education, immigration reform, international relations, national defense).

If Biden loses this election, it will be the fault of his own party, and his own actions in failing to live up to the promises he makes so casually to so many underserved groups. Americans do not feel that their government's role in their life is positive, in any way, and there are solid reasons for belioeving that. Life will not be better under a dictator clown, but it won't be just his cronies that I deem accountable for what is about to happen. It is not enough on its own to just not be a dictator clown. That would be nice, but it isn't reality. The fascists will always have better uniforms. You have to counter this with something more substantial than an empty promise.
 
Three weeks later, I look at Betfair again. (It's probably as good a predictor as anything now.)
Trump re-election has risen to 42.5%. Biden re-election is 29%.

Which is not that good this far out

Pres%20graph.600x337.png

The 2020 election as EXTREMELY close. What do you epect? That predictions should be like Biblical prophets or Nostredamus, and know the unknowable?

Wrong. When an election is EXTREMELY close, like 2020 was, a GOOD predictor will show the red and blue lines running neck-and-neck.

The 2024 election is likely to be extremely close, also. Neither I nor Betfair punters have suggested differently.

You've badly missed the point. To repeat, it was not a good predictor this far out. Look how far off it was in January. What month is it now?
 
Colorado Supreme Court bounces Trump from the ballot.

At least until the Supreme Court puts him back.


The right wing up until recently (this ruling, abortion rights): "States rights! 10th Amendment! Federal government bad!"

Now: "Whoa there, states. Pump your brakes. You can't like...make up your own rules. Federal supremacy and all that. States must conform to the national ruling that hasn't come down yet!"
 
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