The Virus - Are You Affected?

[James Brown]

There must be some metric, some "carrier duration" when a person is capable of infecting others but is not yet symptomatic.

I would wager that the "carrier duration" for COVID-19 is higher than for other viral infections.

Epidemiology already exists, so it's probably not necessary for you to reinvent it from scratch.

The concept of a presymptomatic transmission period in infectious disease has been around for a century or so.

I must have mis-stated my point to receive your snarky answer.

Suppose I became infected with COVID-19 right this minute, which means I crossed some threshold of viral load and am now capable of infecting others. Am I going to develop a high fever, fatigue and difficulty in breathing one minute from now? An hour from now? If I go to a party this evening on the theory that "I feel fine" will I be a danger to others?

You'll recall, one dangerous talking point about this pandemic is, "The disease so deadly you need a test to know if you've got it." And that's true during a person's asymptomatic phase. "I can make others sick, but I don't feel sick, so there's no need to take precautions."

My question wasn't, "Is it possible to be asymptomatic?" It was "How long can I be asymptomatic but still infect others?"

If that question is still worthy of only a Captain Obvious response, then I will withdraw the question.

 

[Jarhyn]

There must be some metric, some "carrier duration" when a person is capable of infecting others but is not yet symptomatic.

I would wager that the "carrier duration" for COVID-19 is higher than for other viral infections.

Epidemiology already exists, so it's probably not necessary for you to reinvent it from scratch.

The concept of a presymptomatic transmission period in infectious disease has been around for a century or so.

I must have mis-stated my point to receive your snarky answer.

Suppose I became infected with COVID-19 right this minute, which means I crossed some threshold of viral load and am now capable of infecting others. Am I going to develop a high fever, fatigue and difficulty in breathing one minute from now? An hour from now? If I go to a party this evening on the theory that "I feel fine" will I be a danger to others?

You'll recall, one dangerous talking point about this pandemic is, "The disease so deadly you need a test to know if you've got it." And that's true during a person's asymptomatic phase. "I can make others sick, but I don't feel sick, so there's no need to take precautions."

My question wasn't, "Is it possible to be asymptomatic?" It was "How long can I be asymptomatic but still infect others?"

If that question is still worthy of only a Captain Obvious response, then I will withdraw the question.

The answer then is "not long". The more symptomatic people are, it has been noted the more likely their viral load is high and they have higher expressions of antibody. Similar is true for most virii.

Thus the asymptomatic are also the least likely to transmit, especially if they wear masks, keep distance, wash hands frequently, and don't touch their faces. It doesn't mean there is no risk, but the risk is far less than someone coughing, sweating, touching their face and/or not wearing a mask.

Interesting enough, the loss of taste is almost universal, absolute, and very early. If you get no other symptoms, you're still probably going to lose your sense of taste, and this is something I very carefully monitor, personally.

I don't think that asymptomatic carrying is likely to last for long enough to be important, assuming all your other behaviors are socially conscientious; you're likely to lose your sense of taste and smell, probably as you become infectious.

 

[lpetrich]

California pulls 'emergency brake' in bid to stop unprecedented virus surge

California Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered widespread closures of indoor operations by tomorrow as the state faces its fastest surge in cases since the pandemic began, pulling what he called the "emergency brake" on 94 percent of residents.

Newsom said he was compelled to act by a case surge that is “simply without precedent in California’s pandemic history.”

"Bottom line is, we're moving from a marathon to a sprint," Newsom said.

...
“We are sounding the alarm,” Newsom said. “California is experiencing the fastest increase in cases we have seen yet — faster than what we experienced at the outset of the pandemic or even this summer. The spread of Covid-19, if left unchecked, could quickly overwhelm our health care system and lead to catastrophic outcomes."

41 counties will be in California's most restrictive COVID tier

New lockdowns and restrictions sweep across the country as Covid-19 cases continue to rise

The wave of Covid-19 infections sweeping across the United States was followed Monday by a spate of new lockdowns and calls for reimposing restrictions after a week during which more than a million new cases were reported.

With two promising vaccines still months away from the start of widespread distribution and President Donald Trump slowing the transition by refusing to concede his apparent election loss to Joe Biden, mayors and governors were battening down the hatches and not counting on guidance from Washington.

Like in Chicago, Philadelphia, NYC

Over the weekend, the governors of several Northeastern states that were hit the hardest early on in the pandemic held a summit in which they discussed, in particular, the private gatherings that have been fueling the Covid-19 spread and sending the hospitalization rate back up.

Indoor gatherings? Those are the biggest spots for spreading the virus.

 

[bilby]

There must be some metric, some "carrier duration" when a person is capable of infecting others but is not yet symptomatic.

I would wager that the "carrier duration" for COVID-19 is higher than for other viral infections.

Epidemiology already exists, so it's probably not necessary for you to reinvent it from scratch.

The concept of a presymptomatic transmission period in infectious disease has been around for a century or so.

I must have mis-stated my point to receive your snarky answer.

Suppose I became infected with COVID-19 right this minute, which means I crossed some threshold of viral load and am now capable of infecting others. Am I going to develop a high fever, fatigue and difficulty in breathing one minute from now? An hour from now? If I go to a party this evening on the theory that "I feel fine" will I be a danger to others?

You'll recall, one dangerous talking point about this pandemic is, "The disease so deadly you need a test to know if you've got it." And that's true during a person's asymptomatic phase. "I can make others sick, but I don't feel sick, so there's no need to take precautions."

My question wasn't, "Is it possible to be asymptomatic?" It was "How long can I be asymptomatic but still infect others?"

If that question is still worthy of only a Captain Obvious response, then I will withdraw the question.

I suspect that my level of snark was higher than was really justified, as I was in a foul mood when I posted that response, so you have my apologies for my overspray.

Nonetheless, the factual content of my response remains appropriate.

What you are calling "carrier duration" is known by epidemiologists as the "presymptomatic infectious period".

 

[DrZoidberg]

I went to a party. Everyone was tested before, everyone hot tested afterwards. Then the bomb comes. Two guys test positive afterwards.

But after some detective work we figure out that they hadn't been sick at the party. They had been infected afterwards.

Still makes me nervous. It'll be my last party for a while

If you had posted this in March, or even April, I might have had some sympathy.

But in November? Have you been living under a log? How could you possibly have not realised that going to parties is incredibly foolhardy by this point?

It was a good friend who has been through a lot of shit. She needed it.

She asked me if she should cancel it before it. Here's my quote "I think it's incredibly irresponsible. How lucky for you that I'm a hypocrite".

I agree that we shouldn't have had the party. We did it anyway.

At least we weren't frivolous about it

 

[barbos]

I went to a party. Everyone was tested before, everyone hot tested afterwards. Then the bomb comes. Two guys test positive afterwards.

But after some detective work we figure out that they hadn't been sick at the party. They had been infected afterwards.

Still makes me nervous. It'll be my last party for a while

If you had posted this in March, or even April, I might have had some sympathy.

But in November? Have you been living under a log? How could you possibly have not realised that going to parties is incredibly foolhardy by this point?

It was a good friend who has been through a lot of shit. She needed it.

She asked me if she should cancel it before it. Here's my quote "I think it's incredibly irresponsible. How lucky for you that I'm a hypocrite".

I agree that we shouldn't have had the party. We did it anyway.

At least we weren't frivolous about it

Reminded me a skydiving birthday present one wife gave to her husband. Sure enough, parachute failed.

 

[James Brown]

What you are calling "carrier duration" is known by epidemiologists as the "presymptomatic infectious period".

Cool. Thank you. And how does COVID-19's presymptomatic infectious period compare with other viral infections? Or is that not a valid comparison to make?

I'm asking because I've heard so many stories of people who didn't know they were infected until they took a test, or because they became symptomatic and figured out from whom they contracted it at a meeting that occurred several days earlier.

 

[TomC]

We're having a big issue.

My mother-in-law lives with us. She's a member of a tiny Baptist church. It's her main social thing, being shut for two months earlier in the year was a huge disaster for her. But she's super high risk(77, copd, diabetes, etc) and she struggled through it. Then it reopened.

The church has a regular Wednesday night meeting, it's mostly a sing along. Then they go out to eat. She went last Wednesday, of course.
Well, the next day, one of her church lady friends who went to all of this came down sick. Now she's really sick with C19. The minister called mother-in-law Friday and told her she needed to get tested and church is cancelled. She went and got a test Saturday. She still hasn't gotten her results back.

I work at a not-for-profit that supplies low cost medical equipment to people. I can't go, if there's any possibility of C19. My partner's job also requires quarantine, but at least he gets paid something while off work.

We aren't having a good week.

Tom

 

[Politesse]

What you are calling "carrier duration" is known by epidemiologists as the "presymptomatic infectious period".

Cool. Thank you. And how does COVID-19's presymptomatic infectious period compare with other viral infections? Or is that not a valid comparison to make?

I'm asking because I've heard so many stories of people who didn't know they were infected until they took a test, or because they became symptomatic and figured out from whom they contracted it at a meeting that occurred several days earlier.

People are infectious for a long period of time, but are most infectious during the first few days of their infection, with the likelihood of transmisison slowly declining over time. This means that people who develop symptoms usually develop them about 48-72 hours after they first became a danger to others. Keep in mind that not everyone does exhibit symptoms, but are equally likely to spread the contagion whether they are showing symptoms or not. So in that case, their "carrier duration" would be the entire time they are infected.

In terms of this metric, COVID-19 is quite similar to other coronaviruses, and a bit more infectious than most influenzas.

 

[TomC]

FUCK FUCK FUCK!

My mother-in-law just got her test results and she's positive for the virus.

Pardon my venting, but she probably got exposed by her conservative Baptist church that(almost entirely) staunchly supports Trump and what he claims about the virus. And also believes that The Lord Will Provide.
And sometimes people don't understand why I Hate Trump!
Tom

 

[Old Woman in Purple]

Daughter left for work at the usual time this morning, then returned home half an hour later. A coworker was experiencing symptoms last week, got a Covid test on Thursday. His results came back yesterday (Monday): Positive!

So what does he do? He SHOWS UP TO WORK TODAY(!!! ) insisting that HE ISN'T CONTAGIOUS!!! With THE COMPANY's APPROVAL!!!!

They apparently think Daughter is OVER-REACTING about not wanting to catch the plague while doing her job.

Looks like she is going to have to quit to get away from the insanity... becoming unemployed again, during a plague-shutdown, with no unemployment (cuz she quit).

Geezus fucking Christ fucking Trumpsuckers.

I'm so pissed.

 

[Treedbear]

Covid19 deaths in the US now averaging 820 per day. In as much as all politics is local, it's worth noting this works out to an average of almost 2 deaths per Congressional voting district per day.

 

[TSwizzle]

They apparently think Daughter is OVER-REACTING about not wanting to catch the plague while doing her job.

Calling the Covid 19 virus "the plague" clearly is over reacting.

 

[TomC]

They apparently think Daughter is OVER-REACTING about not wanting to catch the plague while doing her job.

Calling the Covid 19 virus "the plague" clearly is over reacting.

In what way is it overreacting?

It's trashing our country. It's messing up my family. I don't expect the president to have a magic wand, but this plague could have been dealt with far more effectively starting in January. But Trump wouldn't do it because it looked bad and weak to his base. He saw personal gains as more important than the USA.

That's what I'm seeing. Nothing to do with Democrats or media or China, it's all about what Trump himself did and said and what he didn't do or say.
As POTUS.
Tom

 

[Politesse]

They apparently think Daughter is OVER-REACTING about not wanting to catch the plague while doing her job.

Calling the Covid 19 virus "the plague" clearly is over reacting.

There are between 1-17 cases of bubonic plague in the US each year. So far, there have been 11.3 million cases of COVID-19. I know which one I am more concerned about. Though, as with COVID-19, I think it is perfectly reasonable to take precautions against the plague, and did, when I used to work in desert rural environments as an archaeologist. As it happens, most things you do to protect against plague (wear gloves, avoid aspiration of rat and mouse feces) aso protect you from hantavirus, so double benefit there.

And if a plague strain developed that was as infectious as COVID-19, I would 100% support quarantining the area where it broke out.

 

[TSwizzle]

They apparently think Daughter is OVER-REACTING about not wanting to catch the plague while doing her job.

Calling the Covid 19 virus "the plague" clearly is over reacting.

In what way is it overreacting?

It's over reacting because covid 19 is not a "plague", it's a flu type virus which the vast, VAST majority of people recover from unscathed. Heck, most people don't even know they have it or had it. A disease so deadly that you need a test to determine if you have it.

It's trashing our country.

Lockdowns are trashing the economy.

It's messing up my family. I don't expect the president to have a magic wand, but this plague could have been dealt with far more effectively starting in January.

It's not a plague, it's a flu like virus.

But Trump {snip orange man bad tirade}

Yes, I know, it's all Trumps fault and if Hillary was in office not a single soul would have been lost.

 

[TomC]

Lockdowns are trashing the economy.

Lock downs that are now needed because the government didn't handle it before it became a plague.

Trump is supposed, as POTUS, to lead. Now, his supporters don't seem to realize that being presidential is more than flying around on the taxpayers dime and acting important. Trump is now the plague president. He was in charge. He picked the response. It was quite the failure, but that's what happened.
Tom

 

[TomC]

Originally Posted by TomC View Post
But Trump {snip orange man bad tirade}
Yes, I know, it's all Trumps fault and if Hillary was in office not a single soul would have been lost.

I can't help but notice that you ignored what Trump actually did and segued to "But Hillary...", as if she mattered anymore. She doesn't. When she lost the EC, she called and congratulated Trump on his victory.
Tom

 

[TSwizzle]

Lock downs that are now needed because the government didn't handle it before it became a plague.

Lockdowns don't work and covid 19 is not a plague. It's a flu like virus and the vast, VAST majority of people who contract it recover unscathed etc.

 

[ZiprHead]

Daughter left for work at the usual time this morning, then returned home half an hour later. A coworker was experiencing symptoms last week, got a Covid test on Thursday. His results came back yesterday (Monday): Positive!

So what does he do? He SHOWS UP TO WORK TODAY(!!! ) insisting that HE ISN'T CONTAGIOUS!!! With THE COMPANY's APPROVAL!!!!

They apparently think Daughter is OVER-REACTING about not wanting to catch the plague while doing her job.

Looks like she is going to have to quit to get away from the insanity... becoming unemployed again, during a plague-shutdown, with no unemployment (cuz she quit).

Geezus fucking Christ fucking Trumpsuckers.

I'm so pissed.

Holy crap! Report them to the local health department.