The Virus - Are You Affected?

[bilby]

We're having a big issue.

My mother-in-law lives with us. She's a member of a tiny Baptist church. It's her main social thing, being shut for two months earlier in the year was a huge disaster for her. But she's super high risk(77, copd, diabetes, etc) and she struggled through it. Then it reopened.

The church has a regular Wednesday night meeting, it's mostly a sing along. Then they go out to eat. She went last Wednesday, of course.
Well, the next day, one of her church lady friends who went to all of this came down sick. Now she's really sick with C19. The minister called mother-in-law Friday and told her she needed to get tested and church is cancelled. She went and got a test Saturday. She still hasn't gotten her results back.

I work at a not-for-profit that supplies low cost medical equipment to people. I can't go, if there's any possibility of C19. My partner's job also requires quarantine, but at least he gets paid something while off work.

We aren't having a good week.

Tom

Not able to go to a sing along - Huge disaster

Might die or suffer debilitating symptoms; Family unable to work; Might kill or cause severe symptoms in friends, neighbours, and family members - Not a good week

These are the inverted priorities that have put our society into this shit. If we're going to get out of it, we need everyone to get a grip and realise that a few months of not doing our socialising hobbies isn't the end of the world; But death IS.

 

[bilby]

Lock downs that are now needed because the government didn't handle it before it became a plague.

Lockdowns don't work and covid 19 is not a plague. It's a flu like virus and the vast, VAST majority of people who contract it recover unscathed etc.

A plague is any infectious disease.

Flu like viruses and corona viruses are distinctly different entities.

You really couldn't be more wrong. Your premises are false, your reasoning is self serving, your politics is inhumane, and you should be sad and ashamed.

 

[Emily Lake]

There must be some metric, some "carrier duration" when a person is capable of infecting others but is not yet symptomatic.

I would wager that the "carrier duration" for COVID-19 is higher than for other viral infections.

I believe it's about two weeks for most people, but with a fairly high level of variance.

I misremembered the parts:

The time from exposure to symptom onset (known as the incubation period) is thought to be three to 14 days, though symptoms typically appear within four or five days after exposure.

We know that a person with COVID-19 may be contagious 48 to 72 hours before starting to experience symptoms. Emerging research suggests that people may actually be most likely to spread the virus to others during the 48 hours before they start to experience symptoms.

It can take two weeks from exposure to symptoms, and it can be a few days prior to symptoms that a person becomes infectious.

 

[Emily Lake]

There must be some metric, some "carrier duration" when a person is capable of infecting others but is not yet symptomatic.

I would wager that the "carrier duration" for COVID-19 is higher than for other viral infections.

Epidemiology already exists, so it's probably not necessary for you to reinvent it from scratch.

The concept of a presymptomatic transmission period in infectious disease has been around for a century or so.

There's another term for it, but I can't recall what it is.

 

[Emily Lake]

It's over reacting because covid 19 is not a "plague", it's a flu type virus which the vast, VAST majority of people recover from unscathed. Heck, most people don't even know they have it or had it. A disease so deadly that you need a test to determine if you have it.

It's not a flu type virus. Influenza is an entirely different class of virus. This is a coronavirus. Most coronaviruses express as common colds (they're the most common alongside rhinoviruses). There can be some similarities in symptoms, but they aren't identical. Influenzas generally cause fevers, nausea and vomiting, and commonly diarrhea, along with aches and pains. They can sometimes cause sneezing and coughing, although it's not generally severe, and is usually a precursor to the fever stage. Rhinoviruses are generally "head colds" that result in stuffy noses, sneezing, etc. and occasionally contribute to bronchitis. Coronaviruses are usually "chest colds" that cause a lot of coughing and chest congestion, and sometimes include a fever. Coronaviruses also contribute to bronchitis, but can also turn into pneumonia in a lot of people.

There's also a bit of a misunderstanding in there. Yes, most people who get COVID recover... but they don't necessarily do so unscathed. There's a fair bit of evidence that COVID-19 causes damage to lungs that can be long term. Additionally, most people who get it do actually know they have it once they become symptomatic. The pre-symptomatic period with COVID 19 is a lot longer than with most other viruses we've dealt with, so a lot of people have it without knowing they have it... until about two weeks later when they get sick.

It's trashing our country.

Lockdowns are trashing the economy.

Both are true.

 

[Emily Lake]

Lock downs that are now needed because the government didn't handle it before it became a plague.

Just for consideration, the same thing is happening in Europe, despite having massively different leadership. An autumn increase in cases has been expected since the first round last spring - coronaviruses are generally more infectious in colder weather.

 

[bilby]

Lock downs that are now needed because the government didn't handle it before it became a plague.

Just for consideration, the same thing is happening in Europe, despite having massively different leadership. An autumn increase in cases has been expected since the first round last spring - coronaviruses are generally more infectious in colder weather.

Not that massively different.

The various European governments, like their American counterparts, prioritised economic activity over controlling the epidemic; And the result was a devastating disease outbreak AND a fucked economy.

Governments in Australia and New Zealand prioritised controlling the epidemic over economic activity, and as a result their people suffered less harm both clinical and economic.

Hard lockdowns, supported by measures to support financially those who cannot afford such measures (both individuals and businesses) are the best approach. We know this, because those countries that did that have now recovered both clinically and economically - in Australia and New Zealand, case numbers are low, and outbreaks are small enough to be ruthlessly stamped out; And our domestic economy is pretty much back to how it was last year, with the remaining economic issues being due to the COVID recession in our trading partners.

It's been a valuable experiment. The hypothesis that the economy needs protection from lockdowns has been completely exploded; The use of harsh lockdowns is the most effective way to protect the economy, as well as to protect the people.

Which frankly shouldn't surprise anyone who noticed that people are the drivers of the economy. People do the consuming, people do the producing, people do the organising, planning and logistics.

Failing to look after the people, in an attempt to look after the economy, was always a monumentally dumb plan.

 

[Ruth Harris]

This is strictly anecdotal – but here is one of the reasons I believe you can’t compare the COVID virus to a flu virus.

As I mentioned earlier in this thread, the man who owned and ran the first commercial construction company where I worked died last week from the COVID virus. He was an exceptionally fit and active man who rarely if ever got sick. His only risk factor was that he was (just slightly) over 65 years old.

He and his wife both were diagnosed with this virus at the same time in October. You cannot say her health status was as good as his; she has always been susceptible to colds, flu, bronchitis and the like. She is about the same age as him.

He was hospitalized the first of November and intubated the second of November. He died the twelfth of November, having never been able to be extubated or out of the hospital. His wife had symptoms but was never at the point of being hospitalized.

So this strong healthy man was felled like a tree, while his sickly wife survived. Both had the same health care, vaccinations etc. so that is not a factor.

You just can’t predict who is going to be impacted more seriously by this virus. You would think that all other things being equal, his wife would have been the one who suffered more effects – but that is not what happened.

Ruth

 

[TSwizzle]

You just can’t predict who is going to be impacted more seriously by this virus.

You actually can but of course there are outliers.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Daughter left for work at the usual time this morning, then returned home half an hour later. A coworker was experiencing symptoms last week, got a Covid test on Thursday. His results came back yesterday (Monday): Positive!

So what does he do? He SHOWS UP TO WORK TODAY(!!! ) insisting that HE ISN'T CONTAGIOUS!!! With THE COMPANY's APPROVAL!!!!

They apparently think Daughter is OVER-REACTING about not wanting to catch the plague while doing her job.

Looks like she is going to have to quit to get away from the insanity... becoming unemployed again, during a plague-shutdown, with no unemployment (cuz she quit).

Geezus fucking Christ fucking Trumpsuckers.

I'm so pissed.

I'd tell them that I'm not entering such a dangerous environment but not quit. And I would fight any attempt to deny unemployment for this reason.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

In what way is it overreacting?

It's over reacting because covid 19 is not a "plague", it's a flu type virus which the vast, VAST majority of people recover from unscathed. Heck, most people don't even know they have it or had it. A disease so deadly that you need a test to determine if you have it.

It's not more a flu than you're a dolphin.

And you continue to spout that "vast, vast majority" despite many studies that show otherwise.

Overall, it looks like about 1% die. About 20% end up with psych issues. Large numbers end up with lasting health issues, some with lifetime disability.

I suggest removing your mouth from the GOP's ass.

It's trashing our country.

Lockdowns are trashing the economy.

Without a lockdown the fear of dying would trash the economy anyway. Your approach would kill at least 10 million people as the death toll will explode if the healthcare system crashes--and we are pretty close to that point already.

But Trump {snip orange man bad tirade}

Yes, I know, it's all Trumps fault and if Hillary was in office not a single soul would have been lost.

Nobody has claimed that. Hillary wouldn't be encouraging people to go kill themselves, though.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Lockdowns are trashing the economy.

Lock downs that are now needed because the government didn't handle it before it became a plague.

Trump is supposed, as POTUS, to lead. Now, his supporters don't seem to realize that being presidential is more than flying around on the taxpayers dime and acting important. Trump is now the plague president. He was in charge. He picked the response. It was quite the failure, but that's what happened.
Tom

Actually, I disagree--lockdowns that people would actually obey would be good, but the trumpets will ensure they don't work.

We need to shut down the high risk stuff rather than a general lockdown.

 

[TomC]

Lockdowns are trashing the economy.

Lock downs that are now needed because the government didn't handle it before it became a plague.

Trump is supposed, as POTUS, to lead. Now, his supporters don't seem to realize that being presidential is more than flying around on the taxpayers dime and acting important. Trump is now the plague president. He was in charge. He picked the response. It was quite the failure, but that's what happened.
Tom

Actually, I disagree--lockdowns that people would actually obey would be good, but the trumpets will ensure they don't work.

We need to shut down the high risk stuff rather than a general lockdown.

What I meant was that if the government had taken strong action back in January we'd probably not need hard lockdowns now. It's the lack of action in the beginning that is responsible for the current plague being the disaster that it is, and requiring harsh lockdowns that wouldn't be necessary.
Tom

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Actually, I disagree--lockdowns that people would actually obey would be good, but the trumpets will ensure they don't work.

We need to shut down the high risk stuff rather than a general lockdown.

What I meant was that if the government had taken strong action back in January we'd probably not need hard lockdowns now. It's the lack of action in the beginning that is responsible for the current plague being the disaster that it is, and requiring harsh lockdowns that wouldn't be necessary.
Tom

This bug is fucking persistent. It'd have gotten out, but we wouldn't be at what, 300,000 excess deaths now?

 

[fromderinside]

Don't need to overstate. 240K deaths are gosh awful. We ain't no China that's for sure. But really isn't the acceptance of something like China's strong medicine worth 235,000 lives.

Instead we have a bigot Trump who clings to the flag but refuses to accept even short stern discipline to get things under control. Had the government lead by clamping down with enforcement we could be looking better now. I don't like martial law. But in this situation we needed it. We've had martial law here before.

Sweden fucked up too when they realized that discipline was required and their citizens weren't up to it. So they opted for trying for herd immunity.

The rest of the democratic world misjudged by assuming that rational people would do what is necessary to survive. They misread the actual threat, our inability to self discipline. So here we are going in to a second, third, probably a fourth and fifth peak.

Governments are formed to protect and ensure the survival of societies.

Without force, I have little confidence we have the will to get out of this without significant death and retribution.

Fast, continuous, and massive diagnosis is imperative for contact tracing to work. Significant resources need be brought to bear, else brother versus brother is likely to be the future scene.

Either way or both ways are required.

 

[bilby]

Don't need to overstate. 240K deaths are gosh awful. We ain't no China that's for sure. But really isn't the acceptance of something like China's strong medicine worth 235,000 lives.

Instead we have a bigot Trump who clings to the flag but refuses to accept even short stern discipline to get things under control. Had the government lead by clamping down with enforcement we could be looking better now. I don't like martial law. But in this situation we needed it. We've had martial law here before.

Sweden fucked up too when they realized that discipline was required and their citizens weren't up to it. So they opted for trying for herd immunity.

The rest of the democratic world* misjudged by assuming that rational people would do what is necessary to survive. They misread the actual threat, our inability to self discipline. So here we are going in to a second, third, probably a fourth and fifth peak.

Governments are formed to protect and ensure the survival of societies.

Without force, I have little confidence we have the will to get out of this without significant death and retribution.

Fast, continuous, and massive diagnosis is imperative for contact tracing to work. Significant resources need be brought to bear, else brother versus brother is likely to be the future scene.

Either way or both ways are required.

*May not apply in Australia and New Zealand.

 

[fromderinside]

U might be right. Wide open spaces and rural have completely different meanings down under. Big goes from 3 million acres to 30 million acres for instance. Hard time infecting if nearest neighbor is 10 kilometers away rather just in the next section. Even Quigley from Wyoming was challenged outback.

 

[bilby]

U might be right. Wide open spaces and rural have completely different meanings down under. Big goes from 3 million acres to 30 million acres for instance. Hard time infecting if nearest neighbor is 10 kilometers away rather just in the next section. Even Quigley from Wyoming was challenged outback.

Almost all Australians live in large cities.

The population density of Sydney or Melbourne isn't dramatically different from that of London, Paris, or Los Angeles.

Sure, people in the NT aren't likely to spread diseases around very effectively; But as there are only about a quarter of a million of them, that really doesn't have much impact on Australian per capita infection rates.

More than half the population of Australia live in Sydney, Melbourne, or Brisbane. All are urban environments with high population density.

 

[barbos]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

looks like infection rate is low but never goes to zero. Are all of these sporadic cases traced to air travel from abroad?

 

[Jarhyn]

Actually, I disagree--lockdowns that people would actually obey would be good, but the trumpets will ensure they don't work.

We need to shut down the high risk stuff rather than a general lockdown.

What I meant was that if the government had taken strong action back in January we'd probably not need hard lockdowns now. It's the lack of action in the beginning that is responsible for the current plague being the disaster that it is, and requiring harsh lockdowns that wouldn't be necessary.
Tom

This bug is fucking persistent. It'd have gotten out, but we wouldn't be at what, 300,000 excess deaths now?

I don't think this is quite true. Proper contact tracing, testing, and entry quarantine for every foreign traveller, while annoying to some who would complain very loudly, would have changed the calculus.

We could have been New Zealand, but someone decided that better looking numbers were more important than a conservative approach. Interesting that none of the "conservatives" around here wanted to take a conservative approach. It's almost as if it isn't so much conservatism as much as immediate self-interest at the expense of long term thought