The Virus - Are You Affected?

[Treedbear]

Florida reopens state’s economy despite ongoing pandemic

The governor’s announcement Friday allows restaurants across the state to immediately reopen at full capacity — and prevents cities and counties from ordering them to close or operate at less than half-capacity, unless they can justify a closure for economic or health reasons.

“We’re not closing anything going forward,” DeSantis said, while insisting that the state is prepared if infections increase again.

The governor, however, allowed local governments to limit bars to 50% capacity, but added that he was “not going to stand in the way” of allowing them to fully reopen.

Positivity = 10.6% so the average ballpark figure is that every 10th person you encounter in Florida will be infected. Of course that figure may be higher for the types folks who can't resist or avoid frequenting those venues. See you on Fiddler's Green.

 

[crazyfingers]

Florida reopens state’s economy despite ongoing pandemic

The governor’s announcement Friday allows restaurants across the state to immediately reopen at full capacity — and prevents cities and counties from ordering them to close or operate at less than half-capacity, unless they can justify a closure for economic or health reasons.

“We’re not closing anything going forward,” DeSantis said, while insisting that the state is prepared if infections increase again.

The governor, however, allowed local governments to limit bars to 50% capacity, but added that he was “not going to stand in the way” of allowing them to fully reopen.

Positivity = 10.6% so the average ballpark figure is that every 10th person you encounter in Florida will be infected. Of course that figure may be higher for the types folks who can't resist or avoid frequenting those venues. See you on Fiddler's Green.

That 10.6% is difficult to gauge. I don't know if Florida is actually doing random testing of the population to get that 10.6% or if that's the positivity rate for those who do get tested under some selective rules such as exhibiting symptoms or having been in close contact to an infected person. I have the feeling it's not actually a representation of the overall Florida population.

I have the same issue with Massachusetts' reported positive testing rate which is currently .9% (less than 10% the rate for Florida) But I know that the Massachusetts .9% rate is not a statistically significant randomized rate for the population on Massachusetts. To even get a test in Massachusetts generally speaking one must have good reasons to get a test. You can't just walk in and get a test just to get a test and they are not out there randomly testing people. So I assume that the real infection rate in Massachusetts is a lot lower than .9%

One of the many issues with testing state by state is that these rates all mean different things depending on the testing rules in the state. But it's a for sure that Florida is way worse off than Massachusetts.

 

[Treedbear]

Florida reopens state’s economy despite ongoing pandemic

The governor’s announcement Friday allows restaurants across the state to immediately reopen at full capacity — and prevents cities and counties from ordering them to close or operate at less than half-capacity, unless they can justify a closure for economic or health reasons.

“We’re not closing anything going forward,” DeSantis said, while insisting that the state is prepared if infections increase again.

The governor, however, allowed local governments to limit bars to 50% capacity, but added that he was “not going to stand in the way” of allowing them to fully reopen.

Positivity = 10.6% so the average ballpark figure is that every 10th person you encounter in Florida will be infected. Of course that figure may be higher for the types folks who can't resist or avoid frequenting those venues. See you on Fiddler's Green.

That 10.6% is difficult to gauge. I don't know if Florida is actually doing random testing of the population to get that 10.6% or if that's the positivity rate for those who do get tested under some selective rules such as exhibiting symptoms or having been in close contact to an infected person. I have the feeling it's not actually a representation of the overall Florida population.

I have the same issue with Massachusetts' reported positive testing rate which is currently .9% (less than 10% the rate for Florida) But I know that the Massachusetts .9% rate is not a statistically significant randomized rate for the population on Massachusetts. To even get a test in Massachusetts generally speaking one must have good reasons to get a test. You can't just walk in and get a test just to get a test and they are not out there randomly testing people. So I assume that the real infection rate in Massachusetts is a lot lower than .9%

One of the many issues with testing state by state is that these rates all mean different things depending on the testing rules in the state. But it's a for sure that Florida is way worse off than Massachusetts.

Of course you are right. That's why I said "average ballpark figure". It depends on the ballpark. And then there's the issues about age, income, housing density, yada, yada. But it seems likely that the people who will be taking the risk of going to crowded bars and restaurants are more likely to be infected in the first place. But 10.6% is a hell of a lot more worrisome than CT's 1% and CT is just going from Phase 2 to Phase 3 opening.

In Phase 3, businesses will be permitted to allow 75 percent of its max capacity indoors, up from 50 percent. in Phase 2, though COVID-19 mandates such as face coverings and social distancing must still be adhered to.

Outdoor event venues such as amphitheaters and racetracks will increase its capacity from 25 percent to 50 percent, while indoor performing arts venues will be able to open up to 50 percent capacity.

Bars and nightclubs will remain closed for an undetermined amount of time.

 

[crazyfingers]

That 10.6% is difficult to gauge. I don't know if Florida is actually doing random testing of the population to get that 10.6% or if that's the positivity rate for those who do get tested under some selective rules such as exhibiting symptoms or having been in close contact to an infected person. I have the feeling it's not actually a representation of the overall Florida population.

I have the same issue with Massachusetts' reported positive testing rate which is currently .9% (less than 10% the rate for Florida) But I know that the Massachusetts .9% rate is not a statistically significant randomized rate for the population on Massachusetts. To even get a test in Massachusetts generally speaking one must have good reasons to get a test. You can't just walk in and get a test just to get a test and they are not out there randomly testing people. So I assume that the real infection rate in Massachusetts is a lot lower than .9%

One of the many issues with testing state by state is that these rates all mean different things depending on the testing rules in the state. But it's a for sure that Florida is way worse off than Massachusetts.

Of course you are right. That's why I said "average ballpark figure". It depends on the ballpark. And then there's the issues about age, income, housing density, yada, yada. But it seems likely that the people who will be taking the risk of going to crowded bars and restaurants are more likely to be infected in the first place. But 10.6% is a hell of a lot more worrisome than CT's 1% and CT is just going from Phase 2 to Phase 3 opening.

In Phase 3, businesses will be permitted to allow 75 percent of its max capacity indoors, up from 50 percent. in Phase 2, though COVID-19 mandates such as face coverings and social distancing must still be adhered to.

Outdoor event venues such as amphitheaters and racetracks will increase its capacity from 25 percent to 50 percent, while indoor performing arts venues will be able to open up to 50 percent capacity.

Bars and nightclubs will remain closed for an undetermined amount of time.

The easy answer is that moron of a Florida Governor is a mini Trump. Easy answers are often the correct answer.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Florida reopens state’s economy despite ongoing pandemic

The governor’s announcement Friday allows restaurants across the state to immediately reopen at full capacity — and prevents cities and counties from ordering them to close or operate at less than half-capacity, unless they can justify a closure for economic or health reasons.

“We’re not closing anything going forward,” DeSantis said, while insisting that the state is prepared if infections increase again.

The governor, however, allowed local governments to limit bars to 50% capacity, but added that he was “not going to stand in the way” of allowing them to fully reopen.

Positivity = 10.6% so the average ballpark figure is that every 10th person you encounter in Florida will be infected. Of course that figure may be higher for the types folks who can't resist or avoid frequenting those venues. See you on Fiddler's Green.

Well, it didn't work last time, but I'm sure the same thing won't happen again if we do the same thing that preceded it.

Right now, I'm stunned they don't make testing for Covid-19 a crime.

 

[Elixir]

Florida reopens state’s economy despite ongoing pandemic

The governor’s announcement Friday allows restaurants across the state to immediately reopen at full capacity — and prevents cities and counties from ordering them to close or operate at less than half-capacity, unless they can justify a closure for economic or health reasons.

“We’re not closing anything going forward,” DeSantis said, while insisting that the state is prepared if infections increase again.

The governor, however, allowed local governments to limit bars to 50% capacity, but added that he was “not going to stand in the way” of allowing them to fully reopen.

Positivity = 10.6% so the average ballpark figure is that every 10th person you encounter in Florida will be infected. Of course that figure may be higher for the types folks who can't resist or avoid frequenting those venues. See you on Fiddler's Green.

That 10.6% is difficult to gauge. I don't know if Florida is actually doing random testing of the population to get that 10.6% or if that's the positivity rate for those who do get tested under some selective rules such as exhibiting symptoms or having been in close contact to an infected person. I have the feeling it's not actually a representation of the overall Florida population.

I have the same issue with Massachusetts' reported positive testing rate which is currently .9% (less than 10% the rate for Florida) But I know that the Massachusetts .9% rate is not a statistically significant randomized rate for the population on Massachusetts. To even get a test in Massachusetts generally speaking one must have good reasons to get a test. You can't just walk in and get a test just to get a test and they are not out there randomly testing people. So I assume that the real infection rate in Massachusetts is a lot lower than .9%

One of the many issues with testing state by state is that these rates all mean different things depending on the testing rules in the state. But it's a for sure that Florida is way worse off than Massachusetts.

ZACKLY!

Sleepy Joe better not fall into the trap of promising to "shut everything down until we get the Trump virus under control".
He needs to promise that he will make both antibody and infection testing with instant results available to everyone everywhere. It isn't the virus that is scaring people and paralyzing the Country, it's the uncertainty caused by the failure to prioritize testing.

 

[ZiprHead]

Florida reopens state’s economy despite ongoing pandemic

The governor’s announcement Friday allows restaurants across the state to immediately reopen at full capacity — and prevents cities and counties from ordering them to close or operate at less than half-capacity, unless they can justify a closure for economic or health reasons.

“We’re not closing anything going forward,” DeSantis said, while insisting that the state is prepared if infections increase again.

The governor, however, allowed local governments to limit bars to 50% capacity, but added that he was “not going to stand in the way” of allowing them to fully reopen.

Positivity = 10.6% so the average ballpark figure is that every 10th person you encounter in Florida will be infected. Of course that figure may be higher for the types folks who can't resist or avoid frequenting those venues. See you on Fiddler's Green.

Governor DeathSentence FTW!

 

[Rhea]

8 new cases and a death in my mother’s nursing home.
They currently have 35 symptomatic positives and one asymptomatic positive, plus another 25 employees tsted positive and sent home.

 

[Angry Floof]

Florida reopens state’s economy despite ongoing pandemic

The governor’s announcement Friday allows restaurants across the state to immediately reopen at full capacity — and prevents cities and counties from ordering them to close or operate at less than half-capacity, unless they can justify a closure for economic or health reasons.

“We’re not closing anything going forward,” DeSantis said, while insisting that the state is prepared if infections increase again.

The governor, however, allowed local governments to limit bars to 50% capacity, but added that he was “not going to stand in the way” of allowing them to fully reopen.

Positivity = 10.6% so the average ballpark figure is that every 10th person you encounter in Florida will be infected. Of course that figure may be higher for the types folks who can't resist or avoid frequenting those venues. See you on Fiddler's Green.

Governor DeathSentence FTW!

Same governor who proposes making protesting illegal but immunity for people running down protesters with their cars because obviously they're "scared" of protesters. Depraved piece of shit, just like the rest of the party that has forfeited their humanity.

 

[thebeave]

As to where to keep such people, one may have to do "Bubble Boy" containment, where they will be physically isolated but still have plenty of social contact and plenty of online access and access to movies and the like.

Just keep them away from Trivial Pursuit.

Naw. The "Moops" typo was corrected in later editions.

 

[Derec]

Positivity = 10.6% so the average ballpark figure is that every 10th person you encounter in Florida will be infected.

Positivity rate does not mean what you think it means. </inigo montoya>
It simply means that 10.6% of people tested were positive. If tests were administered randomly, you'd be mostly right (+/- random sample variation). But tests are not administered randomly. First, they test people who show symptoms that could be the 'rona. Second, they are likely to test people those people came in contact with. And all those people are much more likely to be infected that the average person you may encounter.

 

[Derec]

Same governor who proposes making protesting illegal but immunity for people running down protesters with their cars because obviously they're "scared" of protesters.

Many of these "protesters" bang against the cars trying to drive on public thoroughfares. In one instance in Austin, a car was approached by a "protester" with an AK47 - didn't turn out too well for the "protester".
So I can definitely see how some drivers would reasonably feel afraid by the "protesters".

In general I think that "protests" that blockade major roads (and even interstates), especially when they do so for days or weeks on end, are not legitimate forms of protest anyway.

 

[Derec]

The easy answer is that moron of a Florida Governor is a mini Trump.

That's what the Democrats get when they run a meth-head getting investigated by the FBI in a gubernatorial election.

 

[Treedbear]

Positivity = 10.6% so the average ballpark figure is that every 10th person you encounter in Florida will be infected.

Positivity rate does not mean what you think it means. </inigo montoya>
It simply means that 10.6% of people tested were positive. If tests were administered randomly, you'd be mostly right (+/- random sample variation). But tests are not administered randomly. First, they test people who show symptoms that could be the 'rona. Second, they are likely to test people those people came in contact with. And all those people are much more likely to be infected that the average person you may encounter.

As I said, it depends on many variables. But as to who gets tested I don't think we know what motivates the majority of people to get tested or decide not to get tested. That gets into the psychology arena. In that regard it seems to me history demonstrates that when restrictions are lifted people tend to abandon all caution. That's called herd instinct (ask Trump about it).

 

[Derec]

As I said, it depends on many variables. But as to who gets tested I don't think we know what motivates the majority of people to get tested or decide not to get tested. That gets into the psychology arena. In that regard history demonstrates that when restrictions are lifted people tend to abandon all caution. That's called herd instinct (ask Trump about it).

In any case, the fraction of people currently infected is nowhere close to 10% in Florida. Maybe 1% or so.

 

[bilby]

As I said, it depends on many variables. But as to who gets tested I don't think we know what motivates the majority of people to get tested or decide not to get tested. That gets into the psychology arena. In that regard history demonstrates that when restrictions are lifted people tend to abandon all caution. That's called herd instinct (ask Trump about it).

In any case, the fraction of people currently infected is nowhere close to 10% in Florida. Maybe 1% or so.

Perhaps so; But we have to admit that they are doing their best to get that number up as quickly as possible. Give it a few weeks, and 10% will seem like a low-ball estimate.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I have many friends in Sweden who are now recovered from Covid-19. Quite a few of them get long term effects on their lungs. They're out of breath and can't excercise for up to six months. Anything strenous is difficult and they spend a lot of time sleeping. This is otherwise healthy people in good shape. This Corona stuff ain't no joke.

It's official, those saying that it's just a normal flu are idiots.

 

[Derec]

Perhaps so; But we have to admit that they are doing their best to get that number up as quickly as possible. Give it a few weeks, and 10% will seem like a low-ball estimate.

Not gonna happen.

1. Even with the lifting of restrictions (which I admit is stupid), most people will continue some social distancing, will wear masks etc.
2. Florida has already suffered through a major wave. Overall, probably ~15% of the state has already been infected (and thus have humoral immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and if/when that wanes, probably ongoing cellular immunity). In major metro areas like Miami, the infection rate is probably as high as NYC, ~25%. That will confer partial herd immunity and slow the spread of any future outbreaks.
3. In mid-July, the daily new case rate peaked at ~12k. If we assume mean 15 day disease duration, at the end of July the new cases were at ~9.4k/d (which is higher than beginning of July, thus representing worst-case) . Integrating with trapezoidal approximation (should be pretty accurate given the graph) yields ~160k peak known infected people. If we generously assume a 5x true infection rate (as most cases are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and don't get tested) we get a peak of ~800k. Population of Florida is ~21.5M. So, that yields ~3.7% of people being simultaneously infected at the peak in late July or early August. So, you would have to almost triple the July wave to get that. In reality because of 1 and 2, Florida is unlikely to even approach the July peak, much less exceed it.

In other words, not going to happen. No matter how much you may be hoping for it.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Perhaps so; But we have to admit that they are doing their best to get that number up as quickly as possible. Give it a few weeks, and 10% will seem like a low-ball estimate.

Not gonna happen.

1. Even with the lifting of restrictions (which I admit is stupid), most people will continue some social distancing, will wear masks etc.
2. Florida has already suffered through a major wave. Overall, probably ~15% of the state has already been infected (and thus have humoral immunity and if/when that wanes, probably cellular immunity to SARS-CoV-2 as well). In major metro areas like Miami, the infection rate is probably as high as NYC, ~25%. That will confer partial herd immunity and slow the spread of any future outbreaks.
3. In mid-July, the daily new case rate peaked at ~12k. If we assume mean 15 day disease duration, at the end of July the new cases were at ~9.4k/d (which is higher than beginning of July, thus representing worst-case) . Integrating with trapezoidal approximation (should be pretty accurate given the graph) yields ~160k peak known infected people. If we generously assume a 5x true infection rate (as most cases are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and don't get tested) we get a peak of ~800k. Population of Florida is ~21.5M. So, that yields 3.7% of people being simultaneously infected at the peak in late July or early August. So, you would have to almost triple the July wave to get that. In reality because of 1 and 2, Florida is unlikely to even approach the July peak, much less exceed it.

In other words, not going to happen. No matter how much you may be hoping for it.

There is no researcher that thinks Covid-19 will give full immunity. There are six known Corona viruses. Covid-19 hasn't been around long enough for us to know it's long term immunity. But for the other Corona viruses it only gives short term immunity. Maximum a year. Soon the first infected will be able to get infected again. And around and around it goes.

Sure, it'll slow the spread. But only a little bit. Without a vaccine herd immunity is not going to happen.

 

[Derec]

There is no researcher that thinks Covid-19 will give full immunity.

What do you mean "full immunity"? Sterilizing immunity? Sometimes not even vaccines give you that, even if they are effective, for example with polio.

There are six known Corona viruses. Covid-19 hasn't been around long enough for us to know it's long term immunity.

At the same time, there is evidence that previous infections with other coronaviruses provide some limited protection.

But for the other Corona viruses it only gives short term immunity. Maximum a year. Soon the first infected will be able to get infected again. And around and around it goes.

Even if humoral immunity (circulating antibodies) wanes after a year, or even after several months, there is cellular immunity through memory T and B cells. Memory B cells can proliferate upon a new exposure to the virus and produce a new batch of antibodies. That response is not as quick as with already circulating antibodies, but much quicker than with an exposure of an individual who hasn't been exposed previously.

Sure, it'll slow the spread. But only a little bit. Without a vaccine herd immunity is not going to happen.

Since we are talking about Florida, look at their graph.

New cases dropped precipitously through August. Why? No new distancing measures have been implemented that I am aware of. The weather did not significantly change. I think the new cases dropped because of the partial herd immunity.

Sure, a vaccine would be better, but a vaccine cannot confer more immunity than a real infection. It both cases it's about immune response and the immune system "remembering" it. The advantage of the vaccine is priming the immune system without triggering disease (which in this case can have nasty consequences including cardiac effects). So I'd much rather not get infected of course. At the same time, these overly pessimistic (or optimistic, as some posters sound positively gleeful when talking about red states getting it bad) scenarios are baseless I think.