The Virus - Are You Affected?

[Rhea]

The worshippers I am wagging at are responsible for 75+ cases and one death so far. They should be more than wagged. They should be fined for the cost of their little personal “God will Save Us” religious outbreak.

Im not surprised at you response because at heart you are an authoritarian. What did surprise me is that you didn’t go further and say you wanted them jailed/banished/flogged or some such retribution. Covid has become your religion. You’re not the only one.

What a weird thing to say. It does not match my posting history. I am completely against retribution.
Looks like you just made up a caricature of me to flog your position.
Whatevs.

8 more cases in my mother’s nursing home today.

 

[Derec]

I have read numerous articles that explain in detail why it's believed that obesity is one of the highest risk factors for complications related to COVID. They are easy to find, so here's one for you to consider.

I have seen articles like the one you posted too that say that the risk is higher. But I have not seen anything about the claim that almost all the younger (i.e. less than say 50 or 60) fatalities have been obese.

Researchers examined the available published literature on individuals infected with the virus and found that those with obesity (BMI over 30) were at a greatly increased risk for hospitalization (113%), more likely to be admitted to the intensive care unit (74%), and had a higher risk of death (48%) from the virus.

If the death rate for younger people is, say, 0.5%, a 50% higher risk is still just 0.75%. Hospitalization and longer-term health consequences are scarier though.

PLus, if you look at lots of the photos that have been shared by the media, of those who. have died from the virus, you will find that a high percentage of them suffer from obesity.

Then again, high percentage of the population are obese. And there have been normal sized deaths too, like Nick Cordero for example.

I'm just here to tell you that obesity is a very high risk factor for COVID complications and mortality.

Well, I can't lose all the weight in time for the pandemic to be over anyway. However, I DID manage to lose 20 lbs since the pandemic started, when a lot of people have gained weight.
So that's something.

I'm highly skeptical about the vitamin D claims.

Well, I guess it's not astrology or something credible like that.

I have suffered from low D levels intermittently for over 20 years, and I'm lily white. I just don't spend much time in the sun.

White skin just means you have an easier time absorbing UVB and synthesizing D₃. You still need to expose your lily white skin to sunshine for it to work, though.

I've had to up my supplement to 5000 units per day as the 2000 units weren't enough. Still, I haven't had as much as a cold in 10 years, so the idea that vitamin D somehow protects our immune system or low vitamin D levels makes us more susceptible to viral infections isn't really supported by any evidence that I've read.

I had posted evidence specifically about COVID previously. Here is a paper more generally about the role of vitamin D in regulation of the immune system.

Vitamin D3: a helpful immuno-modulator

The active metabolite of vitamin D, 1α, 25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 [1,25(OH)2D3], is involved in calcium and phosphate metabolism and exerts a large number of biological effects. Vitamin D3 inhibits parathyroid hormone secretion, adaptive immunity and cell proliferation, and at the same time promotes insulin secretion, innate immunity and stimulates cellular differentiation. The role of vitamin D3 in immunoregulation has led to the concept of a dual function as both as an important secosteroid hormone for the regulation of body calcium homeostasis and as an essential organic compound that has been shown to have a crucial effect on the immune responses. Altered levels of vitamin D3 have been associated, by recent observational studies, with a higher susceptibility of immune-mediated disorders and inflammatory diseases. This review reports the new developments with specific reference to the metabolic and signalling mechanisms associated with the complex immune-regulatory effects of vitamin D3 on immune cells.

There are a lot of papers like that one too.

I eat tuna and salmon too. I just don't get much sunshine and apparently I don't absorb vitamin D as easily as some do, despite my fair complexion.

You are conflating to disparate things here - endogenous D₃ and absorption from food. Only the first one is linked to your fair complexion, obviously. Your digestive tract might have difficulties absorbing D₃ (cholecalciferol), which would make endogenous synthesis that much more important. Or you could try D₂ (ergocalciferol). It seems not to be quite as as effective, but it might be easier for you to absorb because it is a bit different chemically.

Here's an overview of vitamin D.

Specifically how it acts on the immune system:

I tend to think that the Black folks who have died or had serious complications from COVID usually had underlying risk factors like hypertension, diabetes, asthma, as well as obesity. You might not realize that statistically black folks have higher percentages of asthma, often due to living in areas that are near sources of environmental pollution or working in plants where they are subjected to harmful chemicals.

Asthma I am sure would play a role in how someone might handle a lower respiratory infection. However, there are probably many factors that play a role - vitamin D chief among them.

 

[Rhea]

If the death rate for younger people is, say, 0.5%, a 50% higher risk is still just 0.75%. Hospitalization and longer-term health consequences are scarier though.

I would not ever consider a death rate of 0.75% to be “just”. That’s a horrendous rate. Think about a high school. That would be, like one dead kid for every three classrooms.”

“Just” ???

 

[bilby]

If the death rate for younger people is, say, 0.5%, a 50% higher risk is still just 0.75%. Hospitalization and longer-term health consequences are scarier though.

I would not ever consider a death rate of 0.75% to be “just”. That’s a horrendous rate. Think about a high school. That would be, like one dead kid for every three classrooms.”

“Just” ???

Well, it's only ten percent of the death rate from the shootings at Sandy Hook Elementary.

So as long as there are fewer than ten such schools in the USA, it's not as big a deal.

Oh, wait. Google says there are over 100,000 schools, public and private, in the USA.

 

[southernhybrid]

Derec, I'm not going to debate you, but I will give an example of an article that disclaims what you think about Vitamin D. I will add this. I've read books about vitamin D, when it was a panacea. As far as myself getting more sunshine, my own provider has told me that it's safer for me to take supplements than to spend much time in the sun. Older adults with fair skin are a high risk for skin cancer if they spend too much time in the sun. But, I digress.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-evidence-vitamin-d-severe-covid-.html

At the beginning of May, a pair of studies emerged suggesting people who are deficient in vitamin D are more likely to experience serious health complications if infected with COVID-19.


Sales of the micronutrient soared as a scared public tried to gain any advantage they could over the virus.

Unfortunately, University of Alberta pediatrics professor Todd Alexander said the latest revelations are just another fallacy that have helped build vitamin D into a multibillion-dollar wonder vitamin 30 years in the making.

n the 1980s and '90s, studies emerged that found a role for vitamin D in immune function. This, according to Alexander, led to a deluge of clinical studies finding reduced vitamin D levels in people affected by a host of diseases including asthma, cancer, diabetes and multiple sclerosis.

"Some people have interpreted that to mean vitamin D deficiency causes these diseases," he said. "So to prevent cancer, for example, some people thought we needed to take big doses of vitamin D."

The problem with that, said Alexander, is that associative data doesn't necessarily imply causation—and the COVID-19 findings follow the same fallacy.

The thing that I"ve learned about medical science, mostly from my long career as a professional nurse, is that medical studies are often published without enough evidence to back up the finding. Unfortunately, doctors are often the worst when it comes to believing what they want to believe. As I already mentioned, I've been D deficient on and off for over 2 decades, yet I'm very healthy and rarely get as much as a cold. There is plenty of evidence out there is you are open minded that debunk many of the claims about the benefits of vitamin D.

I am well aware that darker skin usually doesn't absorb as much D as lighter skin does, but I don't think there is enough evidence to support that is why darker skin folks have more complications of COVID. I've already mentioned some of the primary risk factors, which include obesity, asthma, hypertension, diabetes etc. Plus, there are a lot of Black folks who work in essential jobs, which exposes them to higher viral loads than those of us who rarely leave our homes. Being exposed to higher viral loads is certainly a possible cause of COVID complications. That explains why so many nurses and other health professionals who might be otherwise healthy, have died or had serious complications from COVID.

But go ahead, and believe what you want to believe. It's very easy to cherry-pick medical studies. I'm just not buying into the claims about vitamin D. And, I'm not interested in having a debate. I'm more interested in having a discussion, but you often seem to enjoy goading people. That's not my style, but I guess it makes you feel better about yourself, so go find some posters who love that sort of thing. I was merely trying to help you realize that your problem with obesity puts you at risk for complications, just as my age puts me at higher risk for complications. Luckily, I have no other risk factors.

 

[Elixir]

Where is this 1% and below figure coming from?
Worldwide, 4% of cases that have "resolved" have been resolved by death.
The mortality rates seems to have been dropping for a while now, so that 4% is a "low".
Are we assuming 4x more cases than have been verified?

 

[Rhea]

It would be great if we could take all these people who think it’s “no big deal” and ask them all to move - we could even pay for it - to Wyoming for inffection. They get infected, they stay there until they have both
(A) antibodies and
(B) no viral shedding.

Then we pay to move them back.
All of the people who test positive get a free trip to Wyoming until they are no longer positive and have antibodies.

They can have cable TV, saunas, crowded bars with live music, high speed internet, singing in churches, dinner out, pretty much anything they want. Just go there and stay there until you have achieved your “let it run itself out” utopia. Then you can get your lapel pin and return to your home, relaxed, validated, and, 99% of you, still alive.

And if it turns out your antibodies do NOT prevent re-infection, you get to vacation in Wyoming again.

 

[Angry Floof]

Just as a reminder, "herd immunity" is about protecting the vulnerable, not killing them off, which is eugenics and which is what is being promoted by anti-mask morons.

 

[Politesse]

It would be great if we could take all these people who think it’s “no big deal” and ask them all to move - we could even pay for it - to Wyoming for inffection. They get infected, they stay there until they have both
(A) antibodies and
(B) no viral shedding.

Then we pay to move them back.
All of the people who test positive get a free trip to Wyoming until they are no longer positive and have antibodies.

They can have cable TV, saunas, crowded bars with live music, high speed internet, singing in churches, dinner out, pretty much anything they want. Just go there and stay there until you have achieved your “let it run itself out” utopia. Then you can get your lapel pin and return to your home, relaxed, validated, and, 99% of you, still alive.

And if it turns out your antibodies do NOT prevent re-infection, you get to vacation in Wyoming again.

But Wyomingites hate visitors from out of state...

 

[lpetrich]

It would be great if we could take all these people who think it’s “no big deal” and ask them all to move - we could even pay for it - to Wyoming for inffection. They get infected, they stay there until they have both
(A) antibodies and
(B) no viral shedding.

Then we pay to move them back.

Cute idea. I've thought of a similar proposal: use such people in studies of COVID-19 transmission. How many individual virus particles ("virions") does it take to cause infection, and how strong is the resulting infection.

There is something called ID50, the median infectious dose.  Minimal infective dose goes into more detail. The COVID-19 virus likely behaves like other infectious agents in this regard, but it is difficult to collect data on dose strength vs. infection severity, and a lot of work on this involves reasoning backward from masked vs. unmasked and the like.

But with such people, one can give carefully controlled doses of the virus and then watch what happens.

As to where to keep such people, one may have to do "Bubble Boy" containment, where they will be physically isolated but still have plenty of social contact and plenty of online access and access to movies and the like.

 

[James Brown]

It would be great if we could take all these people who think it’s “no big deal” and ask them all to move - we could even pay for it - to Wyoming for inffection. They get infected, they stay there until they have both
(A) antibodies and
(B) no viral shedding.

Then we pay to move them back.
All of the people who test positive get a free trip to Wyoming until they are no longer positive and have antibodies.

They can have cable TV, saunas, crowded bars with live music, high speed internet, singing in churches, dinner out, pretty much anything they want. Just go there and stay there until you have achieved your “let it run itself out” utopia. Then you can get your lapel pin and return to your home, relaxed, validated, and, 99% of you, still alive.

And if it turns out your antibodies do NOT prevent re-infection, you get to vacation in Wyoming again.

That's what some people who hate homosexuals propose. Drop them all off on an deserted island until they die out.

That line of thinking, even if momentarily satisfying, is dangerous in my view.

 

[bilby]

It would be great if we could take all these people who think it’s “no big deal” and ask them all to move - we could even pay for it - to Wyoming for inffection. They get infected, they stay there until they have both
(A) antibodies and
(B) no viral shedding.

Then we pay to move them back.
All of the people who test positive get a free trip to Wyoming until they are no longer positive and have antibodies.

They can have cable TV, saunas, crowded bars with live music, high speed internet, singing in churches, dinner out, pretty much anything they want. Just go there and stay there until you have achieved your “let it run itself out” utopia. Then you can get your lapel pin and return to your home, relaxed, validated, and, 99% of you, still alive.

And if it turns out your antibodies do NOT prevent re-infection, you get to vacation in Wyoming again.

That's what some people who hate homosexuals propose. Drop them all off on an deserted island until they die out.

That line of thinking, even if momentarily satisfying, is dangerous in my view.

With regards to homosexuality, not only dangerous, but stupid.

Do these morons really think that homosexuals are not born to heterosexual parents?

At least with Covid, you can be sure that people won't contract it unless exposed to it.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I don't want to wear a mask.

There is no need to wear a mask in some situations. Like if you are sitting outside on a park bench on your own, or strolling in an open space walking your dog. But the zealots can't stop themselves from finger wagging, shaming, scolding and posting on social media about the monster that is LITERALLY KILLING people !!!!111!! because they aren't wearing a mask.

Get over yourselves and mind your business.

That's not true. A lot of people don't wear masks in parks, in spite of parks being popular places to go running. People who run project the virus much further. If you are around people who do any kind of strenous physical activity infectivity rates and range go up very far. One of the main hot spots of Covid-19 spread in Copenhagen is a three big lakes right next to eachother where it's popular to go running. That's where I go running. It's outdoors. This in spite of them making the walking and running direction strictly one way around it. It's not a crowded place.

One of the most dangerous activities you can do (from a Covid-19) perspective is singing in a choir.

People are confused about the risks and how viruses spread. Even you seem to be confused about it. So perhaps take the advice to heed from the finger waggers, rather than to get annoyed of them?

 

[Derec]

That's not true. A lot of people don't wear masks in parks, in spite of parks being popular places to go running.

A reasonable compromise would be to have a surgical mask handy, so it can be put on quickly if you approach any people.

People who run project the virus much further. If you are around people who do any kind of strenous physical activity infectivity rates and range go up very far.

But the virions would get diluted, would they not? Your chance of breathing in enough particles is much lower at 6m than at 2m. Then there is UV, at least on sunny days. Less effective in Copenhagen, since you sit at 55° and sea-level though.

One of the main hot spots of Covid-19 spread in Copenhagen is a three big lakes right next to eachother where it's popular to go running. That's where I go running. It's outdoors. This in spite of them making the walking and running direction strictly one way around it. It's not a crowded place.

Interesting. Has there been evidence that it is outdoor/runner transmission that is responsible? Because the cause of the hotspot might be something else altogether.

One of the most dangerous activities you can do (from a Covid-19) perspective is singing in a choir.

I can definitely see that. Plenty of people standing close together, breathing out a lot of the virions while singing. Choir practices and performances are also generally done indoors.

People are confused about the risks and how viruses spread. Even you seem to be confused about it. So perhaps take the advice to heed from the finger waggers, rather than to get annoyed of them?

It's all about relative risk I think. Indoor spaces are riskier than outdoor ones, more crowded spaces riskier than less crowded ones. But that doesn't mean you can't get it outdoors in a less crowded space if you are unlucky.

 

[Derec]

As to where to keep such people, one may have to do "Bubble Boy" containment, where they will be physically isolated but still have plenty of social contact and plenty of online access and access to movies and the like.

Just keep them away from Trivial Pursuit.

 

[Derec]

Where is this 1% and below figure coming from?
Worldwide, 4% of cases that have "resolved" have been resolved by death.
The mortality rates seems to have been dropping for a while now, so that 4% is a "low".
Are we assuming 4x more cases than have been verified?

At least. Most people who have it and are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic don't get tested. Especially early on in the pandemic and especially in certain parts of the world.

US has had ~7.3 million confirmed cases (2.2% of the population) but the true infection rate is likely ~10% and probably somewhat north of it (because the data from the link is from July and we are at the end of September).

And the discrepancy is higher in some other parts of the world - India, China, Russia, Brazil as some examples. Hell, Spain hasn't reported any new cases for the last few days, and we know COVID has been surging there lately.

 

[Derec]

Derec, I'm not going to debate you, but I will give an example of an article that disclaims what you think about Vitamin D. I will add this. I've read books about vitamin D, when it was a panacea.

I never said that it was a panacea. I merely said that it plays an important role in the regulation of the immune system (there are dozens of scientific papers on that) and that article doesn't change that. That doesn't mean that you should take more than your body needs, obviously.

As far as myself getting more sunshine, my own provider has told me that it's safer for me to take supplements than to spend much time in the sun. Older adults with fair skin are a high risk for skin cancer if they spend too much time in the sun. But, I digress.

I said that because you mentioned you have difficulties with absorbing dietary vitamin D.

The problem with that, said Alexander, is that associative data doesn't necessarily imply causation—and the COVID-19 findings follow the same fallacy.

Correlation + mechanisms of action do provide very strong evidence of causation actually.

Of course we should not treat any supplement as a panacea. And there is such a thing as vitamin D toxicity, but you have to take way more than recommended. But to dismiss the role vitamin D plays in the regulation of the immune system is ridiculous given what we know about the science.

The thing that I"ve learned about medical science, mostly from my long career as a professional nurse, is that medical studies are often published without enough evidence to back up the finding.

If the study came out and there was no evidence of vitamin D playing any role within the immune system, you may have a point here.

Unfortunately, doctors are often the worst when it comes to believing what they want to believe.

Like a certain Canadian pediatrician?

As I already mentioned, I've been D deficient on and off for over 2 decades, yet I'm very healthy and rarely get as much as a cold. There is plenty of evidence out there is you are open minded that debunk many of the claims about the benefits of vitamin D.

Sure. Dismiss all the scientific studies in favor of an anecdote with n=1.
And note, vitamin D plays a role in immune system regulation. Specifically, it plays a role in inhibiting the pro-inflammatory response. That response is important, but if it gets out of hand (as it does during cytokine storms) it can cause damage to tissues, so the body needs a way to turn it off as it were.
So you not getting colds and the role of the vitamin D in the regulation of the immune system are not even in conflict. It may simply be that you have not gotten an infection where an overactive pro-inflammatory response would be triggered.

I am well aware that darker skin usually doesn't absorb as much D as lighter skin does,

Wrong. Skin-color has nothing to do with vitamin D absorption. It has to do with endogenous vitamin D synthesis from 7-dehydrocholesterol.
Refer back to the graphic I posted upthread.

but I don't think there is enough evidence to support that is why darker skin folks have more complications of COVID.

I offered it as a possible contributing factor. I did not claim we have data on that. That said, this paper offers some interesting data.
Vitamin D deficiency and co-morbidities in COVID-19 patients – A fatal relationship?

This raises the question whether insufficient vitamin D supply has an influence on the course of COVID-19 disease? An analysis of the distribution of Covid-19 infections showed a correlation between geographical location (30–50° N+), mean temperature between 5–11 °C and low humidity [10]. In a retrospective cohort study (1382 hospitalized patients) 326 died, Among them 70.6% were black patients. However, black race was not independently associated with higher mortality [11]. An excess mortality (2 to sixfold have been described in African-Americans with average latitudes of their state of residence in higher latitudes (> 40) [12]. The mortality of COVID-19 (cases/ million population) shows a clear dependence on latitude. Below latitude 35, mortality decreases markedly [13]

Emphasis mine.
While not conclusive - COVID19 is a very new disease after all - it is certainly not the case that the relationship should be dismissed out of hand, like you are scoffingly doing. This papers also offers some other pathways of action of vitamin D and their effects on comorbidities such as hypertension. An interesting read.

I've already mentioned some of the primary risk factors, which include obesity, asthma, hypertension, diabetes etc. Plus, there are a lot of Black folks who work in essential jobs, which exposes them to higher viral loads than those of us who rarely leave our homes.

All true, and some of it was mentioned by me upthread, in the same post I mentioned vitamin D deficiency.

Being exposed to higher viral loads is certainly a possible cause of COVID complications. That explains why so many nurses and other health professionals who might be otherwise healthy, have died or had serious complications from COVID.

I was thinking the same thing when there was a lot of reporting on young medical professionals getting very sick. In general, viral dose can definitely affect the disease progression. That's why masks and social distancing are so important. By keeping away 6' and wearing a surgical mask, you may not prevent all virions an infected person spews out from reaching you, but it will decrease the number that can get through by a lot. Perhaps enough to prevent you getting sick.


There is even some talk that masks may act as a crude "vaccine", exposing some wearers to enough virus to trigger an immune response without making them sick.
Facial Masking for Covid-19 — Potential for “Variolation” as We Await a Vaccine

But go ahead, and believe what you want to believe. It's very easy to cherry-pick medical studies.

I am not cherry-picking, there are dozens of papers written on it. Including generally, written well before this pandemic, on the role vitamin D plays in immunoregulation. I do not know why you are so dismissive of it.

I'm just not buying into the claims about vitamin D.

It's a free country I guess. Just like with astrology, you are welcome to believe whatever you want.

And, I'm not interested in having a debate. I'm more interested in having a discussion, but you often seem to enjoy goading people.

It was not my intention to goad you, other than a friendly jab or two here or there.

I was merely trying to help you realize that your problem with obesity puts you at risk for complications,

I understand that. But just because obesity is one risk factor, does not mean vitamin D deficiency is not another.

 

[Derec]

I would not ever consider a death rate of 0.75% to be “just”. That’s a horrendous rate.

I meant "just" compared to 0.5%. Yes, in absolute terms both are horrendous, but they are both in the same order of magnitudes at least.

Think about a high school. That would be, like one dead kid for every three classrooms.”
“Just” ???

By "younger" I meant people my age, i.e. say the 30-50 cohort. Truly young people have lower rates of course.

One good thing is that death rates seem to be coming down. Hopefully they continue to do so due to better treatments. Monoclonal antibodies seem to be showing real promise.

 

[DrZoidberg]

A reasonable compromise would be to have a surgical mask handy, so it can be put on quickly if you approach any people.

There's no rule about wearing a mask in public places in Denmark. Very few people are. The point of what I was saying is that people are idiots. We shouldn't have to have a law about needing to wear a mask in public. People should be able to figure it out on their own. But people don't. Very few people wear masks when running around the lakes in copenhagen. Inspite of all information about the wisdom of wearing a mask. So I'd prefer a law demanding it.

But the virions would get diluted, would they not? Your chance of breathing in enough particles is much lower at 6m than at 2m. Then there is UV, at least on sunny days. Less effective in Copenhagen, since you sit at 55° and sea-level though.

Sure, but this shit is hard to work out. Who knows exactly how it works? Who really knows exactly at what distance we're safe? Through disease tracing and tracking we know where people got infected, the lakes. And people who are mildly inconvenienced will often make up som bullshit justification for not caring enough.

Better just to slap everybody with a mask requirement and be over with the worry and debate. It's so much simpler.

One of the main hot spots of Covid-19 spread in Copenhagen is a three big lakes right next to eachother where it's popular to go running. That's where I go running. It's outdoors. This in spite of them making the walking and running direction strictly one way around it. It's not a crowded place.

Interesting. Has there been evidence that it is outdoor/runner transmission that is responsible? Because the cause of the hotspot might be something else altogether.

It's not super simple. Of course. The main culprit is kids going back to school. Kids suck at social distancing and behave irresponsibly at school. They're the main spreaders of it. They infect their parents who infect their collegues at work. But Denmark is good at shutting down workplaces. So this is under control. Denmark will not shut down schools again. That's the main avenue of spread.

So teasing out who got infected at the lakes is harder. But it has been mentioned by the Danish CDC, (Sundhedsstryelsen) as one of the major places to get infected in Copenhagen. That and Dronning Luises Bro which is a bridge that goes across the lakes.

The intersting part is that it is outdoors.

People are confused about the risks and how viruses spread. Even you seem to be confused about it. So perhaps take the advice to heed from the finger waggers, rather than to get annoyed of them?

It's all about relative risk I think. Indoor spaces are riskier than outdoor ones, more crowded spaces riskier than less crowded ones. But that doesn't mean you can't get it outdoors in a less crowded space if you are unlucky.

But that relative risk is a risk in itself. Because being outdoors is perceived as less risky, people might be only cautious indoors and then when outdoors do everything wrong. That's certainly what I've witnessed.

 

[barbos]

National Geographic showes "Evacuate Earth". Everybody except small Peruvian tribe dies there
I think we got lucky with COVID-19 . They predicted everything except Trump.