The World-O-Meter Thread

[Jimmy Higgins]

A little more number crunching indicates that the US cases between 5/15 and 6/1 increased 26%. In the US minus NY/NJ/MA/CT, they increased 36%.

 

[Elixir]

A little more number crunching indicates that the US cases between 5/15 and 6/1 increased 26%. In the US minus NY/NJ/MA/CT, they increased 36%.

Yikes. At first glance that sounds in line with my shirtcuff estimates. It looks not all that significant a difference but -
Projecting it out is a bit scary, as the gross outcomes diverge ever more over time. After nine 2-week periods at those rates*, US minus NY/NJ/MA/CT would increase almost 16-fold and US as a whole, "only" a bit over 8-fold.

* I know we can't expect those rates to stay static. Just cautioning against thinking it's a minimal difference.

 

[lpetrich]

Its Defenses Undone by a Virus, France Seeks Lessons From a Lost War - The New York Times - "A book about France’s defeat in World War II has taken on a curious resonance as the country gazes across the border at Germany and asks why it has weathered the pandemic better."

In the country that gave the world the classic novel, it is “Strange Defeat’’ — a scholarly dissection about the fall of France in 1940 not widely known even inside the country — that has instead become the reference to understand what went wrong this time.

Why did France record one of the world’s highest Covid-19 death tolls and mortality rates? Why is it expected to suffer a catastrophic drop of 11 percent in its gross domestic product?

Some French have sought clues in “Strange Defeat,’’ which described a country that, in 1940, believed it had the best army in the world but that was trounced by Hitler’s forces in six short weeks.

...
But the virus quickly overwhelmed the country, bereft of masks, tests, ventilators and other defenses and led by officials who remained always a few steps behind what President Emmanuel Macron called the “invisible enemy.’’

...
“We believed our health care system would be an insurmountable rampart against the epidemic,’’ Mr. Fourquet said. ‘‘But when the attack came, we realized that it wasn’t true. We were shocked to learn that our health care system was disorganized, we didn’t have stocks of medication or face masks or tests.’’

...
In much the same way, some see an intellectual defeat in France’s handling of the epidemic.

Though France and Germany devote the same share of their economies to health care, France was slow in grasping the risks of the virus and in mobilizing against it, said Jean-Jacques Roche, a specialist on French foreign policy at the University Paris 2 Panthéon-Assas.

That's better than Trump's incessant self-congratulation.

 

[Elixir]

With all this re-opening and the economic boom (how's your 401k, trumpers?) maybe there WON'T be a second wave.
Maybe there will only be one bigass wave that will continue to build from now through next winter. FL leads the way?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Keep in mind, the graph above doesn't include today's 1908. And with a lot being asymptomatic, 20,000+ easily infected this past week? Who knows, maybe 30,000 to 50,000. This is kind of where that exponential thing starts taking off. It'd be great if we are wrong though. I'd really like to be wrong soon.

But there is some good news!

Gov. Ron DeSantis was asked Thursday if the reopening plans could be rolled back because of the case numbers. He said Florida has the lowest positivity rate of any state with over 5 million people.

The trains are on time.

 

[Derec]

A little more number crunching indicates that the US cases between 5/15 and 6/1 increased 26%. In the US minus NY/NJ/MA/CT, they increased 36%.

That would be total cases (including recovered people), not active cases. It is inevitable that new cases will increase as long as anybody gets sick. Nationwide active cases have been more of less constant and new daily cases are still decreasing even if they increase in some states.

In Georgia, the daily cases are increasing slightly as a 7 day average. Actual daily cases are very variable from day to day though. So at least in Georgia we do not appear to be on the cusp of another wave.

 

[Derec]

Keep in mind, the graph above doesn't include today's 1908. And with a lot being asymptomatic, 20,000+ easily infected this past week? Who knows, maybe 30,000 to 50,000. This is kind of where that exponential thing starts taking off. It'd be great if we are wrong though. I'd really like to be wrong soon.

Need a few more days of data before you can conclude that Florida has entered a phase of exponential growth. Also a 3 day or even better a 7 day running average is better than daily numbers, because daily numbers have quite a bit of noise.

 

[Rhea]

NYTimes has some good graphics for you
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

First off the nation’s graph that *seems* promising, like things aren’t getting worse, or growing exponentially:



Scroll down and you see their “by-state” graphs separate into those rising in the last 14 days, those steady and those declining.
The number of states in the “rising” group has grown from 9 to 23 in the las 2-3 weeks.



By contrast



You can also see clearly howw the change in NY and NJ will make the US “look” like things aren’t rising, but the fact is that the 23 state are growing alarmingly while NY and NJ continue to combat spread there like grownups.


And that Georgia may not be getting worse, but it’s not getting better - it’s hanging out at a high rate..

 

[Derec]

NYTimes has some good graphics for you
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

Very good resource. I particularly liked the US map with county-level data.

NY Times can be annoying with their left-wing spin sometimes (they even endorsed the radical male AOC wannabe for Engel's seat!), but they consistently have high production values for data visualization.

You can also see clearly howw the change in NY and NJ will make the US “look” like things aren’t rising, but the fact is that the 23 state are growing alarmingly while NY and NJ continue to combat spread there like grownups.

Well, I do not want to diminish Governors Cuomo and Murphy's efforts, but they are also aided now by the bad wave they had in March-April that gave a lot of their citizens herd immunity.

Upward of 20% of NY and NJ residents have probably been exposed and developed some immunity already, with even higher numbers in NYC and other high-density areas.

Amid Ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic, Governor Cuomo Announces Results of Completed Antibody Testing Study of 15,000 People Showing 12.3 Percent of Population Has COVID-19 Antibodies

This was at the beginning of May, so a month and a half ago.

 

[Rhea]

Not sure how you read 12.3% and start using 20%... But as we know - 20% exposure does not equal herd immunity.

Even using your inflated 20%, everything bad that happened in NYC happened when 20% of the population got exposed. There are 4 more 20%s. They aren’t letting it happen again.

So, no, “herd immunity” is not what is making NY and NJ numbers go down so dramatically.

 

[Derec]

Not sure how you read 12.3% and start using 20%... But as we know - 20% exposure does not equal herd immunity.

Well it's partial. With no restrictions, R₀ is estimated to be ~3. So at 20% R drops to 2.4. That's nothing to scoff at. And if your efforts can reduce R₀ to 1.5, 20% immunity brings R to 1.2 and 30% to 1.

Obviously continued social distancing and other public health measures matter a lot, which is why I said that I do not want to diminish what the governors, but immunity of many residents helps a lot.

Even using your inflated 20%, everything bad that happened in NYC happened when 20% of the population got exposed.

It's not inflated, and NYC is probably above 30% by now, as it was at 20% at the beginning of May.

And yes, NY and NJ went through very bad times, but are now at an advantage.

There are 4 more 20%s. They aren’t letting it happen again.

Eventually another 20% New Yorkers and New Jerseyites will get infected, but much slower. And after then, hopefully there will be a vaccine.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

A little more number crunching indicates that the US cases between 5/15 and 6/1 increased 26%. In the US minus NY/NJ/MA/CT, they increased 36%.

That would be total cases (including recovered people), not active cases. It is inevitable that new cases will increase as long as anybody gets sick. Nationwide active cases have been more of less constant and new daily cases are still decreasing even if they increase in some states.

In Georgia, the daily cases are increasing slightly as a 7 day average. Actual daily cases are very variable from day to day though. So at least in Georgia we do not appear to be on the cusp of another wave.

Nationwide level but that includes the descending in the NE verses the rising in the Dumb South. And Florida was over 2500 cases today.

Things are getting bad and keep in mind actual cases lag two to three weeks. Might be a week or two away from flattening this next jump.

 

[Derec]

Nationwide level but that includes the descending in the NE verses the rising in the Dumb South. And Florida was over 2500 cases today.

Yes, I mentioned the same.

Things are getting bad and keep in mind actual cases lag two to three weeks. Might be a week or two away from flattening this next jump.

I don't know that things are getting "bad" per se as of now. Time will tell.

One thing I have noticed though is that the deaths are falling significantly faster than cases. I wonder if that is just due to more testing uncovering more mild cases or if there is actually an improvement in mortality rates due to better treatment.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Nationwide level but that includes the descending in the NE verses the rising in the Dumb South. And Florida was over 2500 cases today.

Yes, I mentioned the same.

Things are getting bad and keep in mind actual cases lag two to three weeks. Might be a week or two away from flattening this next jump.

I don't know that things are getting "bad" per se as of now. Time will tell.

One thing I have noticed though is that the deaths are falling significantly faster than cases. I wonder if that is just due to more testing uncovering more mild cases or if there is actually an improvement in mortality rates due to better treatment.
View attachment 28198View attachment 28199

It is probably because deaths are way out ahead of new cases.

 

[Jokodo]

Nationwide level but that includes the descending in the NE verses the rising in the Dumb South. And Florida was over 2500 cases today.

Yes, I mentioned the same.

Things are getting bad and keep in mind actual cases lag two to three weeks. Might be a week or two away from flattening this next jump.

I don't know that things are getting "bad" per se as of now. Time will tell.

One thing I have noticed though is that the deaths are falling significantly faster than cases. I wonder if that is just due to more testing uncovering more mild cases or if there is actually an improvement in mortality rates due to better treatment.
View attachment 28198View attachment 28199

Hypothetically, the virus could also be evolving to be less malicious. From the virus's perspective, a winning ticket is a person who doesn't know they're sick and becomes a superspreader, not a severe case.

The mossy likely explanation though it's simply more testing.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Yes, I mentioned the same.



I don't know that things are getting "bad" per se as of now. Time will tell.

One thing I have noticed though is that the deaths are falling significantly faster than cases. I wonder if that is just due to more testing uncovering more mild cases or if there is actually an improvement in mortality rates due to better treatment.
View attachment 28198View attachment 28199

Hypothetically, the virus could also be evolving to be less malicious. From the virus's perspective, a winning ticket is a person who doesn't know they're sick and becomes a superspreader, not a severe case.

The mossy likely explanation though it's simply more testing.

It took three months to get things seeded originally. We are seeing the case growth now, which is in part inhibited by people who aren’t sociopaths. We aren’t having huge sport events and festivals to help spread.

 

[Derec]

It is probably because deaths are way out ahead of new cases.

Deaths actually trail new cases, as the peak of the two graphs shows.

 

[Derec]

It took three months to get things seeded originally. We are seeing the case growth now, which is in part inhibited by people who aren’t sociopaths. We aren’t having huge sport events and festivals to help spread.

But we do have these huge protests all over the country. These idiots are gonna get themselves and their families infected.

 

[ronburgundy]

It is probably because deaths are way out ahead of new cases.

Deaths actually trail new cases, as the peak of the two graphs shows.

True, which means that daily deaths will soon stop declining and probably go back up. The drop in daily deaths that we're still seeing is partly due to the 2 week lag from the drop in new cases we were seeing prior to 2 weeks ago. But the # of new cases stopped declining about 2 weeks ago, which is why we are seeing a spike in the total # of still active cases, b/c more people getting sick than recovering. Active cases had peaked on May 30 at about 1,175,796 and then had 5 days of steady decline (never more than 1 day of decline prior to that). But now is spiking and increasing each of the past 11 days and will surpass the prior peak with a day or two. Increasing active cases means more deaths, so we'll see a leveling of declining daily deaths within the next week or so, probably followed by a rise.

And note that the national level stats mask the fact that the seeming "leveling" of new cases in the past two weeks is a byproduct of the fact that the states in the Northeast and Great Lakes (especially IL and MI which are still enforcing distancing) are still seeing declines in daily cases, while nearly every southern and western state is seeing increases following relaxing (or never enforcing lockdowns and social distancing). Those states will definitely see rising daily death counts in the coming weeks.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...king-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It took three months to get things seeded originally. We are seeing the case growth now, which is in part inhibited by people who aren’t sociopaths. We aren’t having huge sport events and festivals to help spread.

But we do have these huge protests all over the country. These idiots are gonna get themselves and their families infected.

The protesters have been pretty careful about masks, unlike the morons on the right.