The World-O-Meter Thread

[lpetrich]

From medium.com:

A funny thing happened in late April: Sweden — 70% marginal tax rate, safety net replete Sweden — briefly became the darling of the American right wing

...
Despite the country’s ban on care home visits, Covid-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, ravaged the largely older populations living in these homes: Nearly half of the country’s deaths from the virus occurred in care home residents. This pattern suggests that even in a country with low population density, “once the virus gets into congregate living facilities, it’s extremely hard to control,” says Eric Schneider, senior vice president for policy and research at the Commonwealth Fund, an independent health care research organization. Sweden’s liberal approach invited this problem “because you’re allowing a certain level of cases in the community — and eventually, through workers, usually, or visitors, or other mechanisms, the virus will make it into those residential facilities,” he says.

From bbc.com:

While Sweden's approach had been to increase its response step by step, other countries had imposed immediate lockdowns and gradually reopened, he said.

He warned it was too early to say whether the lockdowns had worked or not. "We know from history during the last three or four months that this disease has a very high capacity to start spreading again."

 

[lpetrich]

From CNN:

On May 15, Löfven rejected the "narrative" that "Sweden is doing so totally different than other countries," saying "that's not the case."
"Life is not carrying on as normal in Sweden. Many people are staying at home which has had a positive effect on limiting the spread of the virus," he said during a news conference.

"Of course we are painfully aware that too many people have lost their lives due to Covid-19. Just like several other countries we did not manage to protect the most vulnerable people, the most elderly, despite our best intentions."

From WaPo:

Deaths in Sweden, though, have been eight times higher than in Denmark and 19 times higher than in Norway, even though Sweden is only double each neighbors’ size. The outbreak appears to be continuing to course through their society, even while most other European countries seem to have gotten things under control, at least for now. And because Sweden’s economy is tightly bound to the rest of Europe’s, it also has suffered, although not as badly as others.

“Should we encounter the same disease, with exactly what we know about it today, I think we would land midway between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world did,” Swedish state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell told Swedish Radio on Wednesday.

 

[blastula]

Since this info is saved elsewhere and (maybe) the first wave of coronavirus has peaked in the US, the graph below is more informative regarding the US situation. Will update... occasionally. Looks like a very long tail on this thing to get below 1000 new cases/day.
View attachment 28054

Gotta think the protests will cause an increase in places.

 

[Derec]

Gotta think the protests will cause an increase in places.

No kidding! It's the antithesis of social distancing. Will stay away from Fulton County for the rest of the month at least.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Florida has worst three day stretch during pandemic and trending up. Currently, growth rate is still below 3%, but heading the wrong way. Hospitalizations continue to increase. Florida's dashboard doesn't give you a hospitalization chart.

 

[Jokodo]

Since this info is saved elsewhere and (maybe) the first wave of coronavirus has peaked in the US, the graph below is more informative regarding the US situation. Will update... occasionally. Looks like a very long tail on this thing to get below 1000 new cases/day.
View attachment 28054

Are you kidding? The USA aren't even consistently below 1000 *deaths* per day yet.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Since this info is saved elsewhere and (maybe) the first wave of coronavirus has peaked in the US, the graph below is more informative regarding the US situation. Will update... occasionally. Looks like a very long tail on this thing to get below 1000 new cases/day.
View attachment 28054

Are you kidding? The USA aren't even consistently below 1000 *deaths* per day yet.

Yeah, that'd be 20,000 cases. I'd be interested in seeing this chart without NY and NJ. Those two states were popping 10,000 to 15,000 cases a day and now they are down to about 2,000 a day and the nation during that period is down less than 10,000. So the US isn't going down as a whole.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Arizona continues to bloom, which pretty much kills the "summer" will defeat the bug argument.

The Governor indicates the higher numbers are because of more testing. That is a load of crap. Testing since May 7th has been boxing around 10,000 a day. May 26th is the beginning of the big bump in daily new cases.

 

[Politesse]

Arizona continues to bloom, which pretty much kills the "summer" will defeat the bug argument.

The Governor indicates the higher numbers are because of more testing. That is a load of crap. Testing since May 7th has been boxing around 10,000 a day. May 26th is the beginning of the big bump in daily new cases.

Don't worry, Arizonans will never believe it. Theirs is not a fact-driven society.

 

[Jokodo]

Arizona continues to bloom, which pretty much kills the "summer" will defeat the bug argument.

Brazil and Mexico should put that argument to rest anyway. Mexico has reported over 1000 deaths for two days in a row (although done of these may be delayed reports if earlier deaths, the trend was consistently around 500 daily deaths before that too), and Brazil has breached 1500 on a day.

 

[blastula]

Gotta think the protests will cause an increase in places.

No kidding! It's the antithesis of social distancing. Will stay away from Fulton County for the rest of the month at least.

Fulton's loss I'm sure.

At the risk of adding more ghoulish fodder for Derec, at that memorial service yesterday for Floyd there was no way they were following Minnesota's distancing guidelines. Very frustrating to see that.

 

[Derec]

Fulton's loss I'm sure.

Indeed, I am sure, despite your snark.

At the risk of adding more ghoulish fodder for Derec,

Why ghoulish?

at that memorial service yesterday for Floyd there was no way they were following Minnesota's distancing guidelines. Very frustrating to see that.

Just goes to show that idiocy occurs on both sides of the spectrum.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Since this info is saved elsewhere and (maybe) the first wave of coronavirus has peaked in the US, the graph below is more informative regarding the US situation. Will update... occasionally. Looks like a very long tail on this thing to get below 1000 new cases/day.
View attachment 28054

Are you kidding? The USA aren't even consistently below 1000 *deaths* per day yet.

Yeah, that'd be 20,000 cases. I'd be interested in seeing this chart without NY and NJ. Those two states were popping 10,000 to 15,000 cases a day and now they are down to about 2,000 a day and the nation during that period is down less than 10,000. So the US isn't going down as a whole.

Yup, I would like to see this plot, also.

 

[lpetrich]

Not just Sweden, but also Britain.

Coronavirus: Lockdown delay 'cost a lot of lives', says science adviser - BBC News

A scientist who advises the government on coronavirus says he wishes the UK had gone into lockdown sooner as the delay had "cost a lot of lives".

But Prof John Edmunds said data available in March was "really quite poor", making it "very hard" to do so.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock says the government "took the right decisions at the right time".

UK should have gone into coronavirus lockdown sooner: govt scientific adviser - Reuters

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The data was poor? The data was fine. Johnson’s government killed Britons, much like other Putin aligned leaders in Brazil and the US.

 

[bilby]

The data was poor? The data was fine. Johnson’s government killed Britons, much like other Putin aligned leaders in Brazil and the US.

Sure; But directly and explicitly accusing the government of killing its own citizens through wanton neglect tends to be a career limiting move. It's therefore important to provide enough wriggle-room to be able to be interpreted as saying that it wasn't their fault.

 

[Elixir]

Yeah, that'd be 20,000 cases. I'd be interested in seeing this chart without NY and NJ. Those two states were popping 10,000 to 15,000 cases a day and now they are down to about 2,000 a day and the nation during that period is down less than 10,000. So the US isn't going down as a whole.

Yup, I would like to see this plot, also.

Ok then (3-day rolling average shown):



I note that the weekend reporting trough lows were showing a steady decline since mid April - right up until the weekend of June 1.
Make of that what you will ...

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Florida has now pretty much 80% to 100% their daily new cases. Now before you ask "well, are the they testing more" the answer is yes, close to about 80 to 100% more. The trouble is, they began doing that the week of May 17th. The increase is seen two weeks later. Hopsitalizations went up from 9,000ish to over 11,000 in the last couple weeks.

Arizona averaged about 5.0% over the last week, which, if memory serves, means doubling cases every two weeks..

I note that the weekend reporting trough lows were showing a steady decline since mid April - right up until the weekend of June 1.
Make of that what you will ...

That plots deaths. I want to see daily new cases in the US since the start, excluding NJ and NY and another excluding the NE.

 

[Elixir]

Florida has now pretty much 80% to 100% their daily new cases. Now before you ask "well, are the they testing more" the answer is yes, close to about 80 to 100% more. The trouble is, they began doing that the week of May 17th. The increase is seen two weeks later. Hopsitalizations went up from 9,000ish to over 11,000 in the last couple weeks.

Arizona averaged about 5.0% over the last week, which, if memory serves, means doubling cases every two weeks..

I note that the weekend reporting trough lows were showing a steady decline since mid April - right up until the weekend of June 1.
Make of that what you will ...

That plots deaths. I want to see daily new cases in the US since the start, excluding NJ and NY and another excluding the NE.

All the raw data to assemble that graph are available at the W-o-M site. You'd have to add up the dailies for the states you want to exclude and subtract them from the "totals" graph data. W-o-M doesn't provide a way to download the raw data. Therefore, much as I love excel, I don't love data entry tasks, so it's all yours.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The key is to go with two week bunches to save in data reproduction. I plotted it US, (US - NY/NJ), and (US - NY/NJ/MA). The data indicates that since Mid-May, the US is generally increasing minus NY and NJ. I'll need more time to make a more thorough research,