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The World-O-Meter Thread

I noticed that the Florida Dashboard stopped updating their ER visits page on 5/31. I hope all the GOP enablers of this pandemic have a poetic consequence.
 
Florida has 5,400 new cases in just the past two days. That's the two biggest daily jumps in cases in FL during the whole pandemic, and 7% increase in total cases in less than 1% of the time since COVID has reached FL. They could see a doubling of their cases within a month. This is 3 weeks after their Republican Governor fired their COVID data manager for being too honest and engaging in too much science.
 
Ending yesterday, Florida had over 15,000 over the week (6/9 to 6/16). This number is nearly triple the new cases from two weeks prior (5/26/ to 6/2). About the only thing we can hope, because we are down to "hopes and prayers" is that this is a bump caused by Memorial Day gatherings and it'll peak and subside.

On May 19, they had 46944 cases. Based on the currently daily numbers, they double that in just over a month (~6/20) with the bulk of that in the last 2.5 weeks.
 
6/18/20

Florida up 3,200
Arizona up 2,500

The new daily cases continue to increase. about 5 and 7% increases relative to current cases in Florida and Arizona, respectively. 5% growth doubles cases every 2 weeks, 7% every 10 or so days.
 
 
Tenneesee up over 1,100, Georgia over 1,000. ETA South Carolina over 1,000 too.

Fuck the south.

This might have been possible to contain... but that didn't happen. And then it was possible to hold it back a bit... and now that hasn't happened.

So now the question is, how widespread does it have to get before the red hat wearing partisan idiots understand what they have put us up against?
 
The virus is now profoundly centered in the Western hemisphere.

Yesterday, all of Europe reported 576 new deaths - in late March and early April, it wasn't unusual for each of Italy, France, Spain and the UK to report numbers higher than that in a day. Indeed, the daily number of deaths in the UK is now estimated to have stayed above 1000 for 22 consecutive days.

Meanwhile, 1,596 in North America and 1,856 in South America today, between them more than two thirds of the global deaths.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Tenneesee up over 1,100, Georgia over 1,000. ETA South Carolina over 1,000 too.

Fuck the south.

This might have been possible to contain... but that didn't happen. And then it was possible to hold it back a bit... and now that hasn't happened.

So now the question is, how widespread does it have to get before the red hat wearing partisan idiots understand what they have put us up against?
Click to expand...

They'll never admit wrong doing or that the virus is a big deal. They are committed the idea that anyone who dies was weak and bound for death anyway.
 
Good News! YOU Are Part of One of Humanity’s Greatest Achievements - YouTube - Rebecca Watson notes that social distancing and shelter-in-place orders and masks have dramatically slowed down the spread of COVID-19, reducing the death toll from it to some tiny fraction of what it otherwise might have been.

Transcript at Good News! YOU Are Part of One of Humanity’s Greatest Achievements | Rebecca Watson on Patreon

RW noted The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic - s41586-020-2404-8_reference.pdf
The researchers found a typical growth rate of 38% per day -- a doubling time of 2.15 days.
Because infection rates in the countries we study would have initially followed rapid exponential growth had no policies been applied, our results suggest that these policies have provided large health benefits. For example, we estimate that there would be roughly 465 × the observed number of confirmed cases in China, 17 × in Italy, and 14 × in the US by the end of our sample if large-scale anti-contagion policies had not been deployed.
Click to expand...
That's April 6.

EFFECT OF LARGE-SCALE ANTI-CONTAGION POLICIES ON THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC — Global Policy Lab
Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe | Nature - avoiding some 3 million deaths there.

Emergency COVID-19 measures prevented more than 500 million infections, study finds | Berkeley News
  • China: policies averted roughly 37 million more confirmed cases, corresponding to 285 million total cases (including confirmed cases)
  • South Korea: 11.5 million confirmed cases and 38 million total cases averted
  • Italy: 2.1 million confirmed cases and 49 million total cases averted
  • Iran: 5 million confirmed cases and 54 million total cases averted
  • France: 1.4 million confirmed cases and 45 million total cases averted
  • United States: 4.8 million confirmed cases and 60 million total cases averted
Lead author Solomon Hsiang:
The last several months have been extraordinarily difficult, but through our individual sacrifices, people everywhere have each contributed to one of humanity’s greatest collective achievements. I don’t think any human endeavor has ever saved so many lives in such a short period of time. There have been huge personal costs to staying home and canceling events, but the data show that each day made a profound difference. By using science and cooperating, we changed the course of history.
Click to expand...
 
Elixir said:
Since this info is saved elsewhere and (maybe) the first wave of coronavirus has peaked in the US, the graph below is more informative regarding the US situation. Will update... occasionally. Looks like a very long tail on this thing to get below 1000 new cases/day.
View attachment 28054
Click to expand...


We're back up to 30k per day, since the 19th. The bulk is coming from the southwest and southeast states. Can starkly see now that the summer will offer no reprieve, the virus likes the hot weather just fine.
 
blastula said:
We're back up to 30k per day, since the 19th. The bulk is coming from the southwest and southeast states. Can starkly see now that the summer will offer no reprieve, the virus likes the hot weather just fine.
Click to expand...
I feel bad for medical workers, it is going to be a long year for them. No summer lull, just scream right into the fall and into flu season...
 
blastula said:
Elixir said:
Since this info is saved elsewhere and (maybe) the first wave of coronavirus has peaked in the US, the graph below is more informative regarding the US situation. Will update... occasionally. Looks like a very long tail on this thing to get below 1000 new cases/day.
Click to expand...


We're back up to 30k per day, since the 19th. The bulk is coming from the southwest and southeast states. Can starkly see now that the summer will offer no reprieve, the virus likes the hot weather just fine.
Click to expand...
People apparently forgot that in the South, it gets too hot. And people stay inside... where the virus spreads easier.
 
5,500 new cases today for Florida. It is doubling every week. Not certain how high it needs to get before Florida reacts.
 
funinspace said:
blastula said:
We're back up to 30k per day, since the 19th. The bulk is coming from the southwest and southeast states. Can starkly see now that the summer will offer no reprieve, the virus likes the hot weather just fine.
Click to expand...
I feel bad for medical workers, it is going to be a long year for them. No summer lull, just scream right into the fall and into flu season...
Click to expand...

Yeah... My brother, an MD in Santa Fe, is still working. Almost 72 years old and has a cardiac "incident" in his past. I fear that people with his sort of "driven" personality are probably at increased risk even with the age and med history. Additional admin is required for every single thing they or their PAs, RNs etc. do.
Our municipal pool re-opened this week on a very limited basis, I went and swam laps. Ran into the head of County EMS, a way old customer of my last Company. He looked years older than he did last time I saw him in January. I know they had a case who was in quarters with his entire crew prior to testing positive, but I didn't pry.
It's sad, worrisome and I hope there's a God, just so He can send Donald Trump there.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
blastula said:
Elixir said:
Since this info is saved elsewhere and (maybe) the first wave of coronavirus has peaked in the US, the graph below is more informative regarding the US situation. Will update... occasionally. Looks like a very long tail on this thing to get below 1000 new cases/day.
Click to expand...


We're back up to 30k per day, since the 19th. The bulk is coming from the southwest and southeast states. Can starkly see now that the summer will offer no reprieve, the virus likes the hot weather just fine.
Click to expand...
People apparently forgot that in the South, it gets too hot. And people stay inside... where the virus spreads easier.
Click to expand...

Although that doesn't account for the huge spike in CA, where the weather, as usual, has been quite nice and people are outside. Like southern states, CA has not been instituting a mask policy in their re-opened restaurants and bars and are now scrambling to put one in place.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
5,500 new cases today for Florida. It is doubling every week. Not certain how high it needs to get before Florida reacts.
Click to expand...

Why should they react? The more cases the closer to herd immunity and a return to normal.

Never mind the death toll that results, all that matters is Trump 2020.
 
funinspace said:
I feel bad for medical workers, it is going to be a long year for them. No summer lull, just scream right into the fall and into flu season...
Click to expand...
That's why we pay them the big bucks. Can't be enjoying the golfing all the time ...
 
Loren Pechtel said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
5,500 new cases today for Florida. It is doubling every week. Not certain how high it needs to get before Florida reacts.
Click to expand...

Why should they react? The more cases the closer to herd immunity and a return to normal.

Never mind the death toll that results, all that matters is Trump 2020.
Click to expand...

I have read that there is concern this might not provide herd immunity at all.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
5,500 new cases today for Florida. It is doubling every week. Not certain how high it needs to get before Florida reacts.
Click to expand...

I think it's way too early to tell whether there is a weekly doubling or not. The graph certainly doesn't look exponential, at least not yet.
FL.png
 
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