The World-O-Meter Thread

[Elixir]

ETA: I expect that testing (both for infections and for antibodies) will be ramped up under the Biden Administration by then. I hope that If I do win this bet, it's because testing is "rampant" (as Trump asserts) rather than because we are still in the throes of rapid spread.

I was thinking of that too. Hopefully more testing will mean better ability to isolate contacts.

Yeah, testing and tracing would be a good thing. Especially if we also had a cheap antibody test so we could get a handle on how many people have been exposed, and how much immunity is acquired through that exposure.

No, these were antibody tests, not COVID tests proper.

The selection bias was still there. If we ever get to a point where whole populations are tested, that will mean something.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

My bad - that's right - at Standard temp its pressure would be somewhere north of 40,000 psi. But the main point is:

I do agree you consume it to maintain the low temperature--it's the same concept as ice in your ice chest--the ice is consumed to keep the food cold. There's also the safety issue, you have to be careful of confined spaces when dealing with liquid nitrogen.

Why does it matter that you consume it? Liquid Nitrogen is cheap - in bulk, you can get about ten litres for a dollar, and supply in small quantities only costs about five times that - so about $0.50/litre.

It can be made anywhere that there's both air and electricity, using off the shelf equipment that's widely available. And there's far more of it made than is used; It's a high volume byproduct of the manufacturing of liquid Oxygen and Argon, both of which are widely used in industrial settings.

Liquid Nitrogen is cheap, abundant, and easy to make almost anywhere. You can use as much of it as you like; It will constitute a trivial fraction of the cost of the vaccine.

It's not a cost issue, it's a capacity issue. It takes time to ramp up the production rate.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Another record in cases today. We're having a big spike due to holidays. If it isn't an exponential burst then it is really close. Arguing semantics is just trying to distract from the fact that things are fucking awful.

You are assuming the data is real and not noise.

Furthermore, the holiday surge should only be showing up now.

I would be quite surprised if there isn't a surge, but the current data isn't enough to prove it.

What I'm doing is not ignoring the epidemiologists. They have been right for the past 9 months and the data is again doing just what they said would happen. At what point do you accept that the next plate you drop will fall?

No--the issue here is that you assume the data is correct because it's what you expect. It's also what I expect, but I'm saying that the data is noisy enough that it doesn't prove what you think it proves.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Another record in cases today. We're having a big spike due to holidays. If it isn't an exponential burst then it is really close. Arguing semantics is just trying to distract from the fact that things are fucking awful.

Exponential growth has an actual meaning - it doesn't just mean "a lot". It means that rate of change of a quantity is proportional to that quantity. dy/dx = ky.

I would also steer away from comparing raw daily numbers. 7 day averages are better because they smooth out the day-of-week fluctuations as well as random day-to-day noise.
With the Thanksgiving break there is also the issue of less testing/reporting and counties and states catching up. Next week will give us a better picture of where we stand - most likely not in midst of exponential growth.

I will agree with you up until the very end--we are already in exponential growth. Look at the graphs on the World-O-Meter site, set them for logarithmic and note that for some time now it's been a virtually straight line. A straight line on a log scale is exponential on a normal scale.

 

[Derec]

I will agree with you up until the very end--we are already in exponential growth. Look at the graphs on the World-O-Meter site, set them for logarithmic and note that for some time now it's been a virtually straight line. A straight line on a log scale is exponential on a normal scale.

It's not about "are we already", but "are we still". We have been in exponential growth phase for two months, that's pretty clear. That's why we have case numbers as high as they are. But right before Thanksgiving growth started slowing down, and since Thanksgiving numbers have been a mess. I think that next week will reveal that we are no longer growing exponentially even though we certainly have been for a while.

 

[Artemus]

What I'm doing is not ignoring the epidemiologists. They have been right for the past 9 months and the data is again doing just what they said would happen. At what point do you accept that the next plate you drop will fall?

No--the issue here is that you assume the data is correct because it's what you expect. It's also what I expect, but I'm saying that the data is noisy enough that it doesn't prove what you think it proves.

But I'm not relying on what I expect. I'm relying on the predictions of the epidemiological models that have been empirically validated with 9 months of COVID data (not to mention the other pandemics that have allowed the modelling approaches to be developed). If all we had was a graph from mid-November to now and no knowledge of the underlying process nor of the validated models of that process, then no, we couldn't say much about what is going on. But we have far more than that, and it will take much more than a few days of under-reporting to invalidate the models. The only rational conclusion at this point is that we are entering another phase of exponential growth due to the spreading potential introduced by the holiday travel and gatherings. Trust the scientists, as they say. (And there is no proof in empirical science, just validation.)

There's a very helpful site that lets you view the reproduction rate (the constant in Derec's equation) in your state if you live in the US. It isn't pretty.

 

[bilby]

Why does it matter that you consume it? Liquid Nitrogen is cheap - in bulk, you can get about ten litres for a dollar, and supply in small quantities only costs about five times that - so about $0.50/litre.

It can be made anywhere that there's both air and electricity, using off the shelf equipment that's widely available. And there's far more of it made than is used; It's a high volume byproduct of the manufacturing of liquid Oxygen and Argon, both of which are widely used in industrial settings.

Liquid Nitrogen is cheap, abundant, and easy to make almost anywhere. You can use as much of it as you like; It will constitute a trivial fraction of the cost of the vaccine.

It's not a cost issue, it's a capacity issue. It takes time to ramp up the production rate.

You get 78mol of LN2 for every 1mol of Liquid Argon. Most of the world's production of LN2 is effectively thrown away (though big facilities will use the waste to pre-cool inlet air).

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I will agree with you up until the very end--we are already in exponential growth. Look at the graphs on the World-O-Meter site, set them for logarithmic and note that for some time now it's been a virtually straight line. A straight line on a log scale is exponential on a normal scale.

It's not about "are we already", but "are we still". We have been in exponential growth phase for two months, that's pretty clear. That's why we have case numbers as high as they are. But right before Thanksgiving growth started slowing down, and since Thanksgiving numbers have been a mess. I think that next week will reveal that we are no longer growing exponentially even though we certainly have been for a while.

I see no reason to think there's an actual change, just poor data.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Why does it matter that you consume it? Liquid Nitrogen is cheap - in bulk, you can get about ten litres for a dollar, and supply in small quantities only costs about five times that - so about $0.50/litre.

It can be made anywhere that there's both air and electricity, using off the shelf equipment that's widely available. And there's far more of it made than is used; It's a high volume byproduct of the manufacturing of liquid Oxygen and Argon, both of which are widely used in industrial settings.

Liquid Nitrogen is cheap, abundant, and easy to make almost anywhere. You can use as much of it as you like; It will constitute a trivial fraction of the cost of the vaccine.

It's not a cost issue, it's a capacity issue. It takes time to ramp up the production rate.

You get 78mol of LN2 for every 1mol of Liquid Argon. Most of the world's production of LN2 is effectively thrown away (though big facilities will use the waste to pre-cool inlet air).

Which doesn't mean they're in a position to recover the LN2. In time, yes, but not immediately.

 

[lpetrich]

Right-wingers and right-libertarians had long dismissed Sweden as a decadent socialist hellhole, but they turned around and are hailing that nation as having an exemplary response to the COVID-19 bug. But Swedish authorities have thrown in the towel.

Long a Holdout From Covid-19 Restrictions, Sweden Ends Its Pandemic Experiment - WSJ - "Government imposes mandatory measures after failing to contain new surge in infections "

The New York Post reported on that article, and unlike the Wall Street Journal, it has no paywall.
Sweden toughens up on COVID-19 restrictions as cases surge

Sweden has rolled out harsher COVID-19 restrictions after refusing to order a nationwide lockdown and instead largely relying on voluntary measures.

The Nordic nation has ordered large gathering bans, alcohol sale curfews and school closures as part of a clampdown that began last month amid rising cases and hospitalizations, the Wall Street Journal reported.

“This is the new norm for the entire society,” Prime Minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference.

“Don’t go to gyms, don’t go to libraries, don’t host dinners. Cancel.”

Public gatherings are now restricted to eight people, down from a previous limit of 300 as part of the tougher restrictions.

The country also banned the sale of alcohol in bars, restaurants and night clubs after 10 p.m. until the end of February.

High schools will also switch to virtual learning on Monday for the rest of the term.

“This is being done so as to have a slowing effect on the spread of the disease,” Lofven said in announcing the school closures.

Swedes' support for anti-lockdown stance slips amid rising Covid deaths | World news | The Guardian

As the national health agency announced 6,485 new infections and 33 more deaths on Thursday, the prime minister, Stefan Löfven, said the country’s high schools would switch to distance learning from 7 December for the rest of the term.

“This is being done so as to have a slowing effect on the spread of the disease,” Löfven said, adding that the measure was “not an extended break”. What the country did now “will determine how we can celebrate Christmas”, he said.

 

[Elixir]

Why does it matter that you consume it? Liquid Nitrogen is cheap - in bulk, you can get about ten litres for a dollar, and supply in small quantities only costs about five times that - so about $0.50/litre.

It can be made anywhere that there's both air and electricity, using off the shelf equipment that's widely available. And there's far more of it made than is used; It's a high volume byproduct of the manufacturing of liquid Oxygen and Argon, both of which are widely used in industrial settings.

Liquid Nitrogen is cheap, abundant, and easy to make almost anywhere. You can use as much of it as you like; It will constitute a trivial fraction of the cost of the vaccine.

It's not a cost issue, it's a capacity issue. It takes time to ramp up the production rate.

You get 78mol of LN2 for every 1mol of Liquid Argon. Most of the world's production of LN2 is effectively thrown away (though big facilities will use the waste to pre-cool inlet air).

Do you have a hypothesis that would explain why the people involved in distribution logistics are concerned about the "colder chain" requirements for the Pfizer vaccine? Or do you believe they're not concerned?
Maybe they're not - I read today that there is actually a 5-day window for use AFTER it has warmed....

 

[bilby]

You get 78mol of LN2 for every 1mol of Liquid Argon. Most of the world's production of LN2 is effectively thrown away (though big facilities will use the waste to pre-cool inlet air).

Do you have a hypothesis that would explain why the people involved in distribution logistics are concerned about the "colder chain" requirements for the Pfizer vaccine? Or do you believe they're not concerned?
Maybe they're not - I read today that there is actually a 5-day window for use AFTER it has warmed....

It's their job to be concerned.

This stuff is presumably expensive, and certainly valuable; Wasting any would be bad, and the low stability makes it more difficult to avoid doing so.

But most of the concern I am seeing is from people who aren't directly involved with distribution of the vaccine.

It's not going to be particularly easy to get it right, but it's far from impossible, certainly in the developed world.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

You get 78mol of LN2 for every 1mol of Liquid Argon. Most of the world's production of LN2 is effectively thrown away (though big facilities will use the waste to pre-cool inlet air).

Do you have a hypothesis that would explain why the people involved in distribution logistics are concerned about the "colder chain" requirements for the Pfizer vaccine? Or do you believe they're not concerned?
Maybe they're not - I read today that there is actually a 5-day window for use AFTER it has warmed....

It's their job to be concerned.

This stuff is presumably expensive, and certainly valuable; Wasting any would be bad, and the low stability makes it more difficult to avoid doing so.

But most of the concern I am seeing is from people who aren't directly involved with distribution of the vaccine.

It's not going to be particularly easy to get it right, but it's far from impossible, certainly in the developed world.

Maybe in nations where the leader won't pause distribution so his name can be slapped on each dosage of the vaccine!

 

[bilby]

It's their job to be concerned.

This stuff is presumably expensive, and certainly valuable; Wasting any would be bad, and the low stability makes it more difficult to avoid doing so.

But most of the concern I am seeing is from people who aren't directly involved with distribution of the vaccine.

It's not going to be particularly easy to get it right, but it's far from impossible, certainly in the developed world.

Maybe in nations where the leader won't pause distribution so his name can be slapped on each dosage of the vaccine!

So, as I said, in the developed world.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Looks like the US is turning the corner... to 3,000 reported dying in a day. 18 states reporting and already over 1,000.

 

[bilby]

This is already out of date, but it makes a chilling point.

 

[crazyfingers]

When Covid struck Massachusetts Gov Baker did pretty well setting up covid restrictions to get the case numbers down. He's a moderate republican and I doubt he could ever be elected to anything as a republican outside of the Northeast.

Anyway, towards the end of the summer cases started rising again and I thought that Baker was slow to react, He has now rolled back some of the opening plan. I personally don't think that it goes far enough.

https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/12/08/charlie-baker-reopening-update-massachusetts



Also of note is a recent survey of Massachusetts residents.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/12/08/metro/survey-suggests-support-more-restrictions-mass/

A new survey examining the public’s sentiment toward restrictions aimed at slowing the spread of COVID-19 suggests that a majority of Massachusetts residents favor such measures, even if it means being stuck at home.

The results suggest that there is not only political support for more restrictions to be implemented but also a public desire for more to be done, one of the researchers wrote in an e-mail.

“The biggest single conclusion is that there is a lot of public support for the governor to be more aggressive in his response to COVID-19,” said David Lazer, a Northeastern University professor and researcher with the COVID-19 Consortium for Understanding the Public’s Policy Preferences Across States, which sponsored the survey. The effort also included researchers from Harvard, Northwestern University, and Rutgers University.

The study, released Tuesday morning, found that 88 percent of 919 respondents surveyed as part of an online panel between Oct. 1 and Nov. 28 support restrictions to keep people at home and avoid gatherings, and 89 percent support restricting international travel to the US.

Respondents were less supportive of closing businesses, yet still more than half — about 63 percent — said they would support shutting businesses down to help curb the virus’s spread.

The study found that 82 percent of respondents support canceling major sports and entertainment events; 76 percent support restricting travel within the U.S.; 79 percent support limiting restaurants to carry-out only; and 71 percent support prohibiting in-person learning in K-12 schools.

The data is further broken down by political party affiliation, race, age, parental status, and wealth. The study found that non-white Massachusetts residents are more supportive than white residents in all six restrictions. It also concluded that women are more supportive of the measures than men.

Parents of school-age children were more supportive of most restrictions than people without school-aged kids, the study found. The biggest difference was over the closing of businesses, which garnered support from 81 percent of respondents who were parents of school-aged kids, compared to 62 percent support from their counterparts without school-age children. Parents looked slightly less favorably upon restricting international travel.

The study also found, to little surprise, that opinion on restrictions differs greatly depending on political party affiliation: While 81 percent of Democrats surveyed said they support closing most businesses, only 47 percent of Republicans agreed.

The closest they come to agreeing was on international travel restrictions, which were supported by 87 percent of Republicans who participated and 92 percent of Democrats.

“Very nearly a majority of Republicans in Massachusetts support the least popular of the measures we surveyed: closing most businesses,” he wrote in an e-mail. “And considering that Independents form an important part of Governor Baker’s support coalition, it’s worth noting that almost 60 percent of those voters support closing most businesses, while higher percentages support all of the other measures.”

He added, ”The implication is, again, that if our leaders are willing to take bolder actions to contain the spread of the virus, the citizens of Massachusetts appear to be ready to support them in doing so.”

I had mentioned previously that while in some states there are lawsuits on the Governors authority to implement these measures, I believe that the court here already noted that the legislature is overwhelmingly democratic and could pass a law to restrict the Governors powers to act. That they have not done so suggests that the legislature believes that the Governor is acting within his powers.

Personally I wish he'd roll back the reopening more than he is.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

This is already out of date, but it makes a chilling point.

View attachment 30661

We'll always have Galveston to save us.

 

[Jokodo]

This is already out of date, but it makes a chilling point.

View attachment 30661

Is pearl harbour still in the top 15?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

This is already out of date, but it makes a chilling point.

View attachment 30661

Is pearl harbour still in the top 15?

Just bumped down to No. 9 on the charts...