The World-O-Meter Thread

[fromderinside]

So what are the markers you are using to conclude as you do? You're not overlooking something so conspicuous as weekend effect that occurs in every governing agency is it? Thanksgiving would merely magnify the weekend effect. That would just about as legitimate as one claiming a microscopic possibility of change in vote count after polls closed would lead to reported results just because counting switched from in person votes to mailed in votes.

 

[James Brown]

Deaths per million, 7-day rolling average.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Anyone remember when the right-wing wanted to reopen because we "flattened the curve" so mission accomplished? Gosh... how many fewer deaths ago was that?

 

[Elixir]

So what are the markers you are using to conclude as you do? You're not overlooking something so conspicuous as weekend effect that occurs in every governing agency is it? Thanksgiving would merely magnify the weekend effect. That would just about as legitimate as one claiming a microscopic possibility of change in vote count after polls closed would lead to reported results just because counting switched from in person votes to mailed in votes.

Yesterday was Sunday 12/13. Deaths were 1379, up ~25% from 1100 previous Sunday.
New cases were 187,901 up slightly from 183,575 on the previous Sunday.
Every week since Spetember 7, except Turkey Week, we have exceeded the previous week's numbers for corresponding days.
"Flattening" doesn't mean "making flat", apparently. It means "decreasing the slope of the increase", which over time means WE'RE LOSING. BIGLY.

Halving every 2 months seems very pessimistic to me

After the first "peak" on April 9th we reached a new low point in about 2 months - a reduction of around 35% in new cases. The next peak was July 19th. We hit a momentary low eight weeks later of about a 50% reduction (7-day average) on Sept 13. Unless we see a dramatic change in the general public's behavior I see no reason to expect more dramatic decreases than those that are historically evident. We are quite evidently not yet at the "new cases" peak, with Christmas and New years celebrations yet to come.
Given the obstinacy of the right wing "alternative reality" subscribers, it's hard to see anything really moving the needle until at least after the Biden Administration takes control of both the ground game and the messaging.

 

[blastula]

I see no reason to think there's an actual change, just poor data.

Post-Thanksgiving data were a mess, sure. Before Thanksgiving the curve started to flatten already though. And now we are past the messy data period, and sure enough, we are not exponential. With exponential growth the curve must get steeper and steeper, but after a post-Thanksgiving spike (mostly catching up to the Thanksgiving slump in reporting but also some Thanksgiving transmission - idiots!) the curve has flattened again.

View attachment 30737

The daily deaths are also promising.

Is that your way of saying you were wrong?

 

[Derec]

So what are the markers you are using to conclude as you do? You're not overlooking something so conspicuous as weekend effect that occurs in every governing agency is it?

That's precisely why I insist that 7 day running average be always used and not daily numbers. Compare 3 day and 7 day average curves in World-O-Meter. 3 day undulates regularly because of the weekend. 7 day curve does not because each data point includes same number of weekend and work days.

Thanksgiving would merely magnify the weekend effect.

If you read my posts you'd see that I have addressed the Thanksgiving effect.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

So what are the markers you are using to conclude as you do? You're not overlooking something so conspicuous as weekend effect that occurs in every governing agency is it?

That's precisely why I insist that 7 day running average be always used and not daily numbers. Compare 3 day and 7 day average curves in World-O-Meter. 3 day undulates regularly because of the weekend. 7 day curve does not because each data point includes same number of weekend and work days.

Thanksgiving would merely magnify the weekend effect.

If you read my posts you'd see that I have addressed the Thanksgiving effect.

I agree with you on the 7-day averages, but you're missing the fact that the curve is always leveling off--but then it isn't. Reporting lag, the current week's data is meaningless.

 

[Derec]

I agree with you on the 7-day averages, but you're missing the fact that the curve is always leveling off--but then it isn't. Reporting lag, the current week's data is meaningless.

That's not how 7 day averages work.

 

[Derec]

Is that your way of saying you were wrong?

Not entirely accurate perhaps, but much more so than those who think we are still in exponential growth or that we will see 5k deaths/day.

 

[Derec]

Yesterday was Sunday 12/13. Deaths were 1379, up ~25% from 1100 previous Sunday.

Deaths are a lagging indicator though.

New cases were 187,901 up slightly from 183,575 on the previous Sunday.

Or 2.4%.

Every week since Spetember 7, except Turkey Week, we have exceeded the previous week's numbers for corresponding days.
"Flattening" doesn't mean "making flat", apparently. It means "decreasing the slope of the increase", which over time means WE'RE LOSING. BIGLY.

You decrease the slope until it goes to zero and then negative. Duh.

After the first "peak" on April 9th we reached a new low point in about 2 months - a reduction of around 35% in new cases. The next peak was July 19th. We hit a momentary low eight weeks later of about a 50% reduction (7-day average) on Sept 13. Unless we see a dramatic change in the general public's behavior I see no reason to expect more dramatic decreases than those that are historically evident. We are quite evidently not yet at the "new cases" peak, with Christmas and New years celebrations yet to come.

The Spring wavelet was concentrated in the Northeast. As it was coming down, some other areas were just picking up. Now all the parts of the country have been affected to some extent and the overall infection rate is probably around 20-25% (5% confirmed cases). So there is significant herd immunity compared to much lower levels in April-June. In addition, tens of millions of people will be vaccinated over the new few months.

Given the obstinacy of the right wing "alternative reality" subscribers, it's hard to see anything really moving the needle until at least after the Biden Administration takes control of both the ground game and the messaging.

Different parts of the country are locking up again, but I have yet to see it having a major effect in LA or California at large for example. Hopefully it will work.
And strict measures are probably superfluous in New York City as they have not increased anywhere close to levels of LA or Chicago..

But anyway, I think vaccination will be a significant factor here.

I predict a bumpy plateau until maybe the 2nd week of January (around Epiphany/Orthodox Christmas). Christmas will have the data messiness and some real increases in transmission due to too many idiots travelling and New Year's partying.
But after that there should be a pretty rapid decline due to both naturally acquired immunity and increasing vaccinations. Something like halving every 2-3 weeks or so. That means ~100k a day by February 1st. I guess we'll see how close I get.

 

[bilby]

Queensland is now on its ninety first donut day - zero new cases yet again, outside the mandatory quarantine for international arrivals.

We have had six fatalities.

Not six today; Not six this week, or this month; Six. In total. Since the beginning.

Out of a population of just over five million.

That's equivalent to the USA having fewer than 400 deaths.

Ever.



That's the difference between good management and whatever the FUCK your president thought he was doing.


ETA: By the way, our severe lockdown has had the dire economic consequence that everything is now open; Everyone has a job; and the economy is booming.

How is the idea of keeping stuff open "to protect the economy" working for you?

 

[Jokodo]

Queensland is now on its ninety first donut day - zero new cases yet again, outside the mandatory quarantine for international arrivals.

We have had six fatalities.

Not six today; Not six this week, or this month; Six. In total. Since the beginning.

Out of a population of just over five million.

That's equivalent to the USA having fewer than 400 deaths.

Ever.



That's the difference between good management and whatever the FUCK your president thought he was doing.


ETA: By the way, our severe lockdown has had the dire economic consequence that everything is now open; Everyone has a job; and the economy is booming.

How is the idea of keeping stuff open "to protect the economy" working for you?

The US and Trump isn't alone in poor management. While the US never fully got over the first wave, most of Europe had very low case counds by about June, but we totally fucked up preventing a second wave. A few days ago, the countries with the highest daily deaths per capita formed a more or less contiguous region from Switzerland in the West and Poland in the North to Bulgaria in the South East, and they probably still are, more or less. Austria, being right in the middle of that zone, just reported 128 deaths. At a population of 9 million, that corresponds to about 70 deaths for Queensland, or over 4,500 for the US.

In a single day.

(Of course, it's Tuesday, which is typically the day that includes most of the deaths from the weekend that didn't get filed earlier, but our 7-day average is still around 90 too)

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I agree with you on the 7-day averages, but you're missing the fact that the curve is always leveling off--but then it isn't. Reporting lag, the current week's data is meaningless.

That's not how 7 day averages work.

I didn't say that's how 7 day averages work. I said that we always see the tip of the curve leveling off--but then when we look back that pattern has disappeared. It's not a matter of averages, it's a matter of a delay between the event and the reporting of the event. In some cases it's even deliberate--Florida is reporting Covid cases on the date the test was done, not on the date the results came in. This inevitably means Florida's data always shows a some days of improvement.

 

[Elixir]

I agree with you on the 7-day averages, but you're missing the fact that the curve is always leveling off--but then it isn't. Reporting lag, the current week's data is meaningless.

That's not how 7 day averages work.

I didn't say that's how 7 day averages work. I said that we always see the tip of the curve leveling off--but then when we look back that pattern has disappeared. It's not a matter of averages, it's a matter of a delay between the event and the reporting of the event. In some cases it's even deliberate--Florida is reporting Covid cases on the date the test was done, not on the date the results came in. This inevitably means Florida's data always shows a some days of improvement.

Yabut ... 2 days in a row have shown decreases from the same days the week before. That hasn't happened for a while. I could still be a reporting anomaly, but I suspect it's a sign of increases slowing down. Hope so, anyway.

 

[blastula]

The upslope is usually steeper than the downslope.

 

[Artemus]

NPR had a professor of something from university of somewhere on during the commute home saying that contact tracing and cell phone records showed that the burst beginning the week after Thanksgiving and continuing the second week was indeed due to Thanksgiving travel, but people "hunkered down" after that and it slowed during the third week. That is exactly what Fauci said would happen before Thanksgiving.

Anecdotally, it went something like this: Wife's niece's office mate went to a family gathering on Thanksgiving. Wife's niece's office mate's brother tested positive early the next week. Wife's niece's office mate tested positve a couple days after that. Wife's niece tested positive after that. Wife's niece's husband tested positive a couple days after that, Husband had already started quarantining due to recognizing the inevitable so may not have spread it much further.

Unfortunately, slowing down doesn't mean stopping. 247,000 new cases and 3,486 fatalities so far today, the latter a new record and the former a very close second. (ETA: Those were the final numbers for the day.)

 

[James Brown]

 

[Artemus]

Unfortunately, slowing down doesn't mean stopping. 247,000 new cases and 3,486 fatalities so far today, the latter a new record and the former a very close second. (ETA: Those were the final numbers for the day.)

Following up, the numbers for yesterday are now 248,686 cases and 3,538 fatalities, both records. I guess they retroactively add late reports.

 

[blastula]

Is that your way of saying you were wrong?

Not entirely accurate perhaps, but much more so than those who think we are still in exponential growth or that we will see 5k deaths/day.

5k is closer than your prediction of max 2k.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Restrictions were put in recently to help prevent 5k/day dying. These restrictions are helping to hide a bit of the T-Day 'well it is okay if it is just my family that breaks the rules' idiocy.

We are currently blowing through Covid-19 test kits like they are dipping dots.