• Welcome to the new Internet Infidels Discussion Board, formerly Talk Freethought.

The World-O-Meter Thread

I was horrified but not surprised to learn that cases have once again surged in Stanislaus County where I usually commute to work. It was one of those disappointing things where no new cases were reported yesterday, but then wham, 200 new ones today. The hospitals still don't have beds; they are one of the last California counties to move out of the purple category yet even under the revised rules, and I am feeling very pessimistic about the odds of getting my classroom back any time soon.

Stanislaus County is currently at only 14 cases per 100,000. That is not higher than the rest of the state and below the average for US (~20 cases/100,000/day).

"Only".

We just had a three day lockdown here in Greater Brisbane, because after months of zero cases, we had a day of 1.6 cases per million per day (not counting quarantined arrivals from overseas).

The three days allowed for full contact tracing of all known cases, including genomic testing of the virus to confirm that the assumed source of infection in each case was correct. All close contacts of confirmed cases are now in isolation, and we will have a two week period during which it is mandatory to wear a mask outside the home. If no further cases emerge in that two week period, we will return to "normal", with no restrictions other than a requirement to register attendance at public places (such as bars or restaurants). Those registrations are to assist contact tracing in the event of another outbreak.

This outbreak has been traced back to hospital staff working with infected overseas arrivals.

This is what "only" looks like in a pandemic. If you're accepting that there are some infectious people out and about, unaware of their infectious status, and permitted to mingle with the community, no numbers of infections are "only". :rolleyes:

This is pandemic control done properly.
 
Four weeks later, you expect a 75+% decline? Sounds like easy money.

Well yeah. We should have ~50% vaccination by then and we have had, until recently, a rapid decline.

But again... please just go ahead and send zipr the hundred. I didn't think you would reneg.
Nobody is reneging. If you refuse the "double or nothing", I'd be happy to send the money.
tenor.gif

Of course, if May2 rolls around and you feel badly about the fact that the US 7-day average is still in the 20-40k/day range, go ahead and send TFT some more money as penance. :)
So you want all the upside without any of the downside exposure? LMAO, no.
Either I send the money now, or we push it to the other Easter.

Can't have it both ways. So which will it be, McFly?
 
Well yeah. We should have ~50% vaccination by then and we have had, until recently, a rapid decline.

Nobody is reneging. If you refuse the "double or nothing", I'd be happy to send the money.

I refuse it. Send the money. I thought that was clear.

View attachment 32637

Ok, Mr. Black Knight...
 
That's 106,926 cases already for the week leading up to Easter Sunday, 4/4.
So even if there are zero more cases for the rest of eternity, unless some already reported cases are un-reported (that doesn't happen IME) the 7-day average on 4/4 will exceed 15,000.

(106,926/7=15,275)

@Derec, please pull out your credit card and call in a $100 donation to TFT (in the name of "Elixir", please)
Zipr will let me know when it's received.
Thank you.

Thanks for supporting the site with your convictions, derec.
 
The white and black areas are not Michigan. That help? :D


The scale is darker = badder.

I see 6 colors on there. (Admittedly, I have color vision issues, don't go squawking if there really are more.)

If they are 1 per million through 6 per million it doesn't say much.

If they are 1 per thousand, 2 per thousand, 4 per thousand, 8 per thousand, 16 per thousand and 32 per thousand it means an awful lot.

Without a scale no useful information is conveyed other than it's worse on the thumb.
 
Final tally for Easter Sunday:
63,471

More than 4x Derec's Happy Talk prediction.
Time to remit now, @Derec
 
Final tally for Easter Sunday:
63,471

More than 4x Derec's Happy Talk prediction.
Time to remit now, @Derec

Meh, still much better than your doom and gloom talk. What really saved you are the variants. Lucky break I guess. You need to kiss the ground of England, South Africa and Brazil for saving your bacon!
I should have said the Orthodox Easter. That's on me though. A bit too optimistic.

Anyway, it is done. The payment did not give me the option to state that it was the pound of flesh for Elixir, but I am sure Zipr will know what's what.
 
I refuse it. Send the money. I thought that was clear.
You are still chicken. I take it as you tacitly admitting that my prediction will come true just one month late. A proverbial blink of an eye! Not a big deal in the grand scheme of things, except for my wallet. :( But I saved so much money on hookers during the pandemic, I guess I could afford it. :)
 
Mayo Clinic's predictor shows Michigan as the current "leader" and the forecast only shows it getting worse.

Do you have a link to the forecast? The national 7 day average is trending down again. Michigan is still increasing though and I wonder why. Variants more prevalent there? Artefact due to more testing? Michiganders and -geese behaving particularly foolishly?
 
In Denmark on 5/4 -2001 people got positively diagnosed with Covid-19. Not that they got well from Covid. Nope. Not that they were misdiagnosed. But that people who weren't sick prior to getting tested got super healthy after the testing.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?time=2020-01-01..latest&country=~DNK

It's a clerical error. But it's a good reminder not to stare blindly at statistics. I'm guessing they got a temp in during Easter who made a boob.
 
Progress in GB is remarkable, infection rate fell 17 times, death rate fell 35 times since highs just 3 months ago.
 
Meh, still much better than your doom and gloom talk.

No Derec, that is false. It is in fact WORSE than my "gloom and doom talk".
I predicted that the April 4th, the 7-day average would be 2-4x your Happy Talk bet.
When the dust settled the 7-day average for 4/4 was 66,036. The high end of your Happy Talk was 15K.
So my most extreme "gloom and doom" estimate was exceeded by more than 10%. The reality is more than 400% of your "Happy Talk". You weren't even in the realm.

Apparently you don't have the coin, since you haven't paid up. But you want me to "bet" with you some more?
That's idiotic. Pay up, dude.
I might entertain a further wager if you agree that the proceeds - regardless of who wins - go to TFT. Once you pay up, that is.
I'm certainly not "chicken" as you assert. That's almost as stupid as the Happy Talk that put you in this situation... have you taken a peek at the stock markets lately?

Perusing this thread shows just how deluded your Happy Talk has been right from the start:

Your only hope to win the bet is that the vaccine rollout keeps underwhelming long term. I still think 100 million by mid-March is very much doable and sufficient to drive case numbers down to 15k/d.

I think we will peak before the end of November, so I definitely think we will drop below 80k well before inauguration day. Probably even by New Year.

... and on and on.
Now you're calling me "chicken"? Pay up, dude. Then agree that all proceeds benefit TFT and we can go another round, ok? You're batting zero - it can only get better for you, right?
 
Progress in GB is remarkable, infection rate fell 17 times, death rate fell 35 times since highs just 3 months ago.

That's what happens when you mismanage a situation and then stop sucking
Technically he fucked up twice... first the original delay to react the first time... and making the same mistakes the second time.
 
Back
Top Bottom