The World-O-Meter Thread

[Rhea]

Do you also have vaccine resistance? Or is it vaccine availability?

 

[barbos]

Do you also have vaccine resistance? Or is it vaccine availability?

It's both. But this beginning of a spike is due to summer carelessness.

 

[Derec]

+14,723
This time it increases much faster than before.

+13,397 today.
+ 14,185 yesterday.

So things seem to be settling down.
Although, Russia is only 10% fully vaccinated (compared to 44% for US and 25% for EU) so there is definitely grounds for concern.

 

[Derec]

What is incredible is the vaccine was literally America first (excluding Israel), and many Americans said "Pass". They finally got that American comes first thing and they walked away.

You are exaggerating. Most eligible people got the vaccine by now. 44% of the population are fully vaccinated, and over 52% got at least one dose. And US vaccination rate is still over 1 million per day.

US is still one of the most vaccinated countries, especially when you exclude very small countries like Cayman Islands, San Marino or Malta. Also, how in the hell is the vaccination rate in Gibraltar 116%?!

 

[Derec]

If not for [Trump's] propaganda, the whole world might be approaching herd immunity by now.

It's Trump's fault that e.g. India has a very low vaccination rate? Exactly how?
And note that US has one of the highest vaccination rates and that  Operation Warp Speed was started under Trump.

Some time after he is long dead and gone he may well take his place among the Pol Pots, Stalins and Hitlers as one of the world's greatest genocidal assholes.

Much more likely he'll take his place among the mostly forgotten US presidents. Millard Fillmore who?

 

[Derec]

Children are going to camps and going to be herding around, some more safely than others, considering they aren't vaccinated yet. We'd probably see bumps in the south with the lower vax rates. Of course they'd need to test and report it though.

Lower vax rates are mostly in rural areas, but they also bump into fewer people on a daily basis, so their R is lower for that reason alone.
Pfizer is approved above 12. Aren't summer camps mostly a middle school thing and not for younger kids?

 

[Derec]

In the last day the US has seen its first uptick in the 7-day new case average since April.

There is some fluctuation, as you'd expect with case numbers low, but I can't really see any evidence of an "uptick".

We just dropped below 15k/day on June 3, almost exactly two months past the failed @Derec prediction.

Hey, so I was a bit late, but at least my prediction went in the right direction. Unlike your doom and gloom prophecies.
Are you still predicting a new spike in cases either this Summer or Fall or have you given up on that yet?

We're not at a place of "herd immunity" and the people who have not been vaccinated show no signs of wanting to be vaccinated, so we're all stuck with the results of their stupidity.

Parts of the US are at effective herd immunity I would say. And vaccination rate in the US is still a bit over a million per day. So a lot of people are still getting vaccinated. We will probably not reach Biden's goal of 70% of eligible people by July 4th though, but we will reach or at least get very close to 50% of the total population being vaccinated by then.

 

[barbos]

+14,723
This time it increases much faster than before.

+13,397 today.
+ 14,185 yesterday.

So things seem to be settling down.
Although, Russia is only 10% fully vaccinated (compared to 44% for US and 25% for EU) so there is definitely grounds for concern.

Not setting down
17,262 today and it's not only Moscow&SPB, here I see increase as well.

 

[barbos]

Report says 90% of new infections in Moscow is delta variant.
This is insanely fast.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Report says 90% of new infections in Moscow is delta variant.
This is insanely fast.

It's what happens when a more infectious variant comes along.

 

[Elixir]

Report says 90% of new infections in Moscow is delta variant.
This is insanely fast.

It's what happens when a more infectious variant comes along.

It will be interesting to see how many people who have been infected by other variants get re-infected by new ones such as delta, and how severely ill they get.

 

[Elixir]

Hey, so I was a bit late, but at least my prediction went in the right direction. Unlike your doom and gloom prophecies.

You are saying that I predicted the infection rate to go up over the period of our bet. That is a - uh ... falsehood.
In fact, my "gloom and doom" prophecy was that by April 4, 2021 we would be at 3-4x your naive prediction of 15k new US infections per day, 7-day average.
And in fact I narrowly missed it. (It was 66,365)
I WAS A TAD OVERLY OPTIMISTIC.

Parts of the US are at effective herd immunity I would say.

What you would say carries zero or negative value at this point, dude.
You have been so consistently and spectacularly wrong as to resemble the trump-apologists.


My outlook remains as I have said from early in this thread and elsewhere on this forum: Eventually everyone will be exposed. The number of sick and dying from it will decrease over time but this coronavirus will eventually take its place among all the other ones to which humans have acquired a degree of immunity - iow, a variant of the common cold.
We are NOT at any effective "herd immunity", period. It is irresponsible and foolish to assert otherwise. "Pockets of immunity" might have existed in the 13th century, but not today. Maybe your house is a "pocket of immunity" like mine is. But that means nothing. Nor does a county here and there that has only a few infections.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Children are going to camps and going to be herding around, some more safely than others, considering they aren't vaccinated yet. We'd probably see bumps in the south with the lower vax rates. Of course they'd need to test and report it though.

Lower vax rates are mostly in rural areas, but they also bump into fewer people on a daily basis, so their R is lower for that reason alone.
Pfizer is approved above 12. Aren't summer camps mostly a middle school thing and not for younger kids?

Summer camps can be for any school aged child. My kid has been in summer camps since the year between kindergarten and first grade.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Report says 90% of new infections in Moscow is delta variant.
This is insanely fast.

It's what happens when a more infectious variant comes along.

It will be interesting to see how many people who have been infected by other variants get re-infected by new ones such as delta, and how severely ill they get.

Interesting thing I ran into recently--almost all reinfections are in those with multiple comorbidities. It's left me wondering how many breakthrough infections are people with comorbidities.

 

[barbos]

Looks like Delta variant is the main reason for spikes in different countries. And interesting thing I saw is that ~30% of newly infected in GB were vaccinated.

Also, there are many countries (like Poland/Czechia for example) in Europe which had pretty bad spikes (not Delta) and are doing very well currently. What it tells me that primary driver of the virus is carelessness and if everybody simultaneously did sensible thing we would have been over this shit already, like in China, Australia, etc.

 

[barbos]

2 days over 20K infections in Russia.
And Israel is having small (for now) spike even after being heavily vaccinated.

I really like to see data on efficiency of Sputnik V against Delta variant. There is enough data for that already.

 

[Elixir]

2 days over 20K infections in Russia.
And Israel is having small (for now) spike even after being heavily vaccinated.

I really like to see data on efficiency of Sputnik V against Delta variant. There is enough data for that already.

Yes, one would think there is enough data that some meanginful conclusions might be drawn. That you're not seeing it might be the most reliable indicator of what it implies.
Remember, you are in a country where information is controlled by a person who is Donald Trump's mentor and idol.

 

[Elixir]

It will be interesting to see how many people who have been infected by other variants get re-infected by new ones such as delta, and how severely ill they get.

Interesting thing I ran into recently--almost all reinfections are in those with multiple comorbidities. It's left me wondering how many breakthrough infections are people with comorbidities.

"Comorbidities" are not a fixed value like dollars or ounces of gold. Surviving our own birth is the first "comorbidity" each of us accrues. There is no person who doesn't have some attribute that might, under certain circumstances, further the chances of their death. In the absence of SPECIFICS I find that concept useless other than as an excuse for trumpapologists.

 

[barbos]

2 days over 20K infections in Russia.
And Israel is having small (for now) spike even after being heavily vaccinated.

I really like to see data on efficiency of Sputnik V against Delta variant. There is enough data for that already.

Yes, one would think there is enough data that some meanginful conclusions might be drawn. That you're not seeing it might be the most reliable indicator of what it implies.
Remember, you are in a country where information is controlled by a person who is Donald Trump's mentor and idol.

Well, according to https://lenta.ru/news/2021/06/25/murashkoktozabolel/ percentage of vaccinated among infected is 0.5%. Assuming it's recent infection data and taking into account 10% of the population being fully vaccinated, this means 95% efficiency against Delta which is 90% of all cases in Moscow now. Sputnik seems to be equally effective against both variants,

of course vaccinated and unvaccinated people are different and there could be bias because of that.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It will be interesting to see how many people who have been infected by other variants get re-infected by new ones such as delta, and how severely ill they get.

Interesting thing I ran into recently--almost all reinfections are in those with multiple comorbidities. It's left me wondering how many breakthrough infections are people with comorbidities.

"Comorbidities" are not a fixed value like dollars or ounces of gold. Surviving our own birth is the first "comorbidity" each of us accrues. There is no person who doesn't have some attribute that might, under certain circumstances, further the chances of their death. In the absence of SPECIFICS I find that concept useless other than as an excuse for trumpapologists.

I was just wondering whether individual health is an important factor in reinfection.