The World-O-Meter Thread

[Jimmy Higgins]

A peculiar thing I noticed. Looking at the latest outbreaks, the UK is one of the more notable increases, along with Indonesia. But the UK deaths aren't following along it, like they are in Indonesia or Russia. The UK might be starting to increase, following their typical month lag, but other nations it popped up quicker, but it is difficult to tell if the lower delay is just due to infrastructural testing differences.

I noticed that before you.
https://talkfreethought.org/showthr...O-Meter-Thread&p=918338&viewfull=1#post918338

My theory is that GB has had most of the people who could die from C19 dead already (in previous waves)

Industrialized nations have usually see a three to four week lag on deaths. Poorer countries lack the testing infrastructure to keep up on the numbers. So we'll see in a week or two if the trend continues to rise in the UK. It is increasing, but it is small. But with 60,000 at Wembley? Jebus!

 

[Elixir]

The World-o-Meters 7-day US new case average is back up to 17,952. It was at 12,149 on June 20. There really is no end in sight.
Deaths are also on the rise in the last few days. As a trailing indicator we can be sure that stat will pick up over the next 7-10 days as well.
THANKS, TRUMPSUCKERS.

Wonder if @Derec has a new prediction about when new US cases will get back below the 15k/day level, or when the death rates will start to decline again.

Worldwide, June 21 saw the lowest 7-day new case average (359,785) since October 17, 2020. It has risen steadily since then, to 424,620 on July 9.
That too, shows no sign of slowing down. In fact the increase curve looks to be getting steeper.

The only good news AFAICS is that the vaccines apparently remain effective so far, and almost everyone dying is unvaccinated.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The World-o-Meters 7-day US new case average is back up to 17,952. It was at 12,149 on June 20. There really is no end in sight.
Deaths are also on the rise in the last few days. As a trailing indicator we can be sure that stat will pick up over the next 7-10 days as well.
THANKS, TRUMPSUCKERS.

Wonder if @Derec has a new prediction about when new US cases will get back below the 15k/day level, or when the death rates will start to decline again.

Worldwide, June 21 saw the lowest 7-day new case average (359,785) since October 17, 2020. It has risen steadily since then, to 424,620 on July 9.
That too, shows no sign of slowing down. In fact the increase curve looks to be getting steeper.

The only good news AFAICS is that the vaccines apparently remain effective so far, and almost everyone dying is unvaccinated.

Yup. We are up to 15 per 100,000 for the state--but dropped from 4th place to 5th place because the redneck goodlife is doing an even better job.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The US back last year in the spring/summer had symmetry that hid a problem. The Northeast was recovering from cases while the south's issues were somewhat under the surface as their increase was covered in part by the NE decrease, making the picture appear rosier on the national charts, and an awful president. The northeast has the highest vax rates, so that is presenting a pressure on new Covid-19 cases, while the south/bible belt's numbers are around half to 3/4s the vax rates of the NE. So the increase is slower, but quite real. Summertime could be a big problem as Delta appears to be sneaking in on vax'd patients, who can then spread it to others. And of course, the dumbasses can spread it amongst themselves. But how many dumbasses remain that haven't been infected in the US?

I am not talking about poor countries.
Most of Europe is currently doing great, some which were pretty bad couple of month ago are doing extremely great.
Look at Czechia/Poland/Hungary/France/Germany/Italy even Ukraine.
The only reason I can see for them doing well is that they got hit hard and reacted to it. Whereas Russia was not hit that hard and relaxed.

In Europe there is only 3 countries which are not doing well - Russia, UR and Spain. And only Russia is doing badly in both in infection and in deaths. Some countries are staring to have a new spike though.

Maybe Sputnik vaccine doesn't work so well?

It works. Vaccination rate is just too low to have any impact.

Russia's deaths are at their highest period, despite the latest wave being on par with the last wave. So underreporting now, then... who knows. UK continues to tick up with deaths, and apparently still want to reopen. Their super spreader event at Wembley yesterday went off very well.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Boris Johnson: The pandemic is still on going, but it is time to party like the pandemic is over!

That is an accurate paraphrase.

At a Downing Street press conference on Monday, the prime minister confirmed that 'freedom day' would take place next week despite the growing number of cases, driven by the Delta variant.

But Johnson warned that the coronavirus pandemic "is not over" as he said mask use will be advised in crowded and enclosed spaces even after legal controls end.

He said: "It is absolutely vital that we proceed now with caution and I cannot say this powerfully or emphatically enough: this pandemic is not over."

 

[barbos]

Russia's deaths are at their highest period, despite the latest wave being on par with the last wave. So underreporting now, then... who knows. UK continues to tick up with deaths, and apparently still want to reopen. Their super spreader event at Wembley yesterday went off very well.

Delta is deadlier I understand. Really we have a different virus. Before this spike I noticed that deaths/day had inordinate number of days with 399-397 in it. It was as if somebody set 400 limit on it Now there does not seems to be a limit and it has normal statistical distribution.

 

[bilby]

The major outbreak centred on Fairfield (a suburb of Sydney) is becoming seriously worrying. There's now been a fatality, and new cases are over the 100/day mark, with more than forty of those new cases being identified as having been infectious prior to isolating.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Wave 4 is on its way. Floriduh and their anti-Fauci dumbass of a Governor is leading the way... again. 7-day average is 26k, but that is ignoring the rate of increase. Yesterday we had over 35,000 new cases (8 states over 1,000).

Florida has 3x'd in 3 weeks (via 7-day average, which again denies the rate of increase). Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Florida, Texas, and California are leading the way in trying to ruin 2021.

 

[Artemus]

Wave 4 is on its way. Floriduh and their anti-Fauci dumbass of a Governor is leading the way... again. 7-day average is 26k, but that is ignoring the rate of increase. Yesterday we had over 35,000 new cases (8 states over 1,000).

Florida has 3x'd in 3 weeks (via 7-day average, which again denies the rate of increase). Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Florida, Texas, and California are leading the way in trying to ruin 2021.

The fatalities 7-day moving average has also been climbing for the last week. Definitely a surge.

 

[Elixir]

Wave 4 is on its way. Floriduh and their anti-Fauci dumbass of a Governor is leading the way... again. 7-day average is 26k, but that is ignoring the rate of increase. Yesterday we had over 35,000 new cases (8 states over 1,000).

Florida has 3x'd in 3 weeks (via 7-day average, which again denies the rate of increase). Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Florida, Texas, and California are leading the way in trying to ruin 2021.

The fatalities 7-day moving average has also been climbing for the last week. Definitely a surge.

Pretty sure we ain't seen nuthin' yet. Not only is there a steep increase of cases, there is every evidence that the rate of increase is accelerating. And I don't see any new factors about to mitigate it.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Wave 4 is on its way. Floriduh and their anti-Fauci dumbass of a Governor is leading the way... again. 7-day average is 26k, but that is ignoring the rate of increase. Yesterday we had over 35,000 new cases (8 states over 1,000).

Florida has 3x'd in 3 weeks (via 7-day average, which again denies the rate of increase). Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Florida, Texas, and California are leading the way in trying to ruin 2021.

The fatalities 7-day moving average has also been climbing for the last week. Definitely a surge.

Pretty sure we ain't seen nuthin' yet. Not only is there a steep increase of cases, there is every evidence that the rate of increase is accelerating. And I don't see any new factors about to mitigate it.

There are two things that definitely impede transmission.

1) Vax'd people, though the benefit might be limited if vax'd people are seeing more breakthroughs and getting Delta, just not suffering from it
2) Already infected people. They likely won't get the Delta.

There is one new thing though that makes the impeding not predictably reliable as:

1) People are acting there isn't a problem. So the overlap of sick people and to-be infected people is much greater than it was at any time during the pandemic.

So while there are a couple avenues to restrict the spread, that America effectively has given up caring will help encourage spread. What the actual numbers will be is entirely unpredictable. Outbreaks will be geographical until vacationers bring it back home with them from the South.

 

[barbos]

Well, China and Poland are doing well.

 

[Elixir]

There are two things that definitely impede transmission.

1) Vax'd people, though the benefit might be limited if vax'd people are seeing more breakthroughs and getting Delta, just not suffering from it
2) Already infected people. They likely won't get the Delta.

1) The US vax rate has slowed to a crawl.
2) Infection provides less protection than one vax shot, even against the strain that caused the infection.

Well, China and Poland are doing well.

Also Monserrrat and Tanzania.
Seriously though, NZ seems to be holding it off pretty well still, with 5 deaths per million people (vs. 1873 for MAGA USA)
Even Australia with 35 DPM looks pretty good, and considering the freakout over ONE recent death, I expect they'll be okay.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

There are two things that definitely impede transmission.

1) Vax'd people, though the benefit might be limited if vax'd people are seeing more breakthroughs and getting Delta, just not suffering from it
2) Already infected people. They likely won't get the Delta.

1) The US vax rate has slowed to a crawl.

That doesn't mean tens of millions aren't vaccinated.

2) Infection provides less protection than one vax shot, even against the strain that caused the infection.

This is not what I've heard second hand from my Doctor source on the subject, who is a literal Dr. Know-it-all. He indicated that those infected would likely have the best immunity compared to those vaccinated. I trust his word very much.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Well, China and Poland are doing well.

Yes, we musn't forget Poland. (18 yr old reference)

 

[bilby]

There are two things that definitely impede transmission.

1) Vax'd people, though the benefit might be limited if vax'd people are seeing more breakthroughs and getting Delta, just not suffering from it
2) Already infected people. They likely won't get the Delta.

1) The US vax rate has slowed to a crawl.
2) Infection provides less protection than one vax shot, even against the strain that caused the infection.

Well, China and Poland are doing well.

Also Monserrrat and Tanzania.
Seriously though, NZ seems to be holding it off pretty well still, with 5 deaths per million people (vs. 1873 for MAGA USA)
Even Australia with 35 DPM looks pretty good, and considering the freakout over ONE recent death, I expect they'll be okay.

Almost all of Australia's covid deaths were last year; And almost all in one city (Melbourne).

There's a new outbreak in Sydney right now, and a removalist company whose employees decided that the rules didn't apply to them have taken it to Melbourne. Melbourne is now in lockdown for the fifth time, and Sydney for the first (though the right-wing NSW state government are making a half-arsed job of it, so infection rates are not dropping to zero as they would with a proper lockdown).

If you exclude Melbourne, the rest of Australia has actually done better than New Zealand, so far.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Wave 4 is on its way. Floriduh and their anti-Fauci dumbass of a Governor is leading the way... again. 7-day average is 26k, but that is ignoring the rate of increase. Yesterday we had over 35,000 new cases (8 states over 1,000).

Florida has 3x'd in 3 weeks (via 7-day average, which again denies the rate of increase). Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Florida, Texas, and California are leading the way in trying to ruin 2021.

The fatalities 7-day moving average has also been climbing for the last week. Definitely a surge.

Pretty sure we ain't seen nuthin' yet. Not only is there a steep increase of cases, there is every evidence that the rate of increase is accelerating. And I don't see any new factors about to mitigate it.

Locally, we are at more than 3x the low point earlier this year on a statewide basis (and 4th in the nation), 4x on a county basis.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Europe is exploding! UK had over 50,000 cases. They are about 67% the max 7-day rate right now, and it is growing sharply, Their Euro 2020 super spreader event went down perfectly.

The Netherlands? See their new case chart? Sharpest growth.
7-day avg (daily report)
June 28th: 580 (550)
July 6th: 1200 (2200)
July 13th: 7400 (7800)
July 15th: 9100 (11000)

Spain has 4x in the last 3 weeks (7-day avg).

Those three nations, along with Russia, are leading the way in the Delta surge.

 

[Elixir]

More than 75,000 new US cases yesterday, and looking like we'll be right there again today.
Putin and right are winning their fight to keep COVID alive. The Republic of DeSantis is leading the way with more than 16 thousand new cases yesterday... almost as if they think that the more Americans are sick and dying, the worse it makes Biden look.
Given how the truth of 1/6 is overcoming their obfuscation and denial efforts, I can hardly blame them for seeking distractions.

 

[Elixir]

That doesn't mean tens of millions aren't vaccinated.

2) Infection provides less protection than one vax shot, even against the strain that caused the infection.

This is not what I've heard second hand from my Doctor source on the subject, who is a literal Dr. Know-it-all. He indicated that those infected would likely have the best immunity compared to those vaccinated. I trust his word very much.

That's nice that you trust your doctor. I trust Fauci, Hotez and the other infectious disease specialists who have said categorically that the reinfection data indicates weaker protection (on average) from infection than from Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. Their caveat, that there is a paucity of data, makes me wonder how your know-it-all Doctor came to his conclusion.