Trump Will Likely Win

[Colonel Sanders]

With regard to why men are moving out drifting away from the Democrat party, is it really such a mystery? I don't think its so much that they love Trump (although that's certainly the case for some), but they are routinely dismissed and insulted by those on the left. Check the progressive lefty ladies on The View recently:

Exactly. Especially for white men. The Left has been calling us "oppressors" for decades.

When I think of this issue, I think of the word "privileged."

If you want to alienate tens of millions of working white people, particularly young men, then tell them that they're privileged. Tell them when they're struggling to pay bills and hoping they don't get evicted that they're "privileged." Ridicule them while they feel the despair of working two jobs and oh, while you're at it, tell them it's their fault that non-white people are struggling and that they're racist for feeling hopeless.

I know this because I was there myself. Had an entire political party had laughed at me for working a backbreaking blue collar job while my home went into foreclosure, my response to that would be obvious.

This is just one of the many catastrophic failures the Dems have committed over the last 20+ years. The only reason I don't engage in many criticisms of my political side of the spectrum is because the threat to our democracy is very real, so other issues are on the back burner.

Clearly they don't understand the definition of 'privileged', do they?

They probably don't according to whatever your position on the issue might be. But let's hear it.

 

[pood]

At 538, Harris is ahead in 40 national polls, behind in 9, and even in 5. But yes, national polls don’t count in the end. So we will see.

Yeah but using 270towin’s interactive map, and 538’s state polls, Trump eeks out a victory 281-257.

270toWin has Harris ahead 226-219, with the rest tossups.

Right. But I put in the latest poll results from 538. Then you see that Trump wins PA. And this the White House. But it’s incredibly close.

Last I looked 538 was showing tied races in at least four swing states, among them PA I think.

 

[pood]

It's not strange. It's a diminution of the things that white people go through too. When you essentially tell someone who's struggling that their struggle isn't real because other people have it worse then the response is going to be a gigantic Fuck You. And "Fuck you" is what Trump has inspired in these people.

But Democrats aren’t telling white people that. If they somehow are hearing that, maybe they have been brainwashed by Fox News?

I hate Trump with every fiber of my being. I hate what he's inspired, but what he did tap into was decades worth of dismissive ridicule at the hands of the left.

It simply isn’t true that the “left,” whatever that is — it certainly is not mainstream Democrats — have dismissively ridiculed working-class white people. Maybe they THINK Democrats have done this, because for four decades Faux News has been TELLING them this.

The vast, vast majority of white people aren't privileged. It's an absurd notion, and no one should be expected to tolerate absurdity of any kind. Throw in actual racism, shocking ignorance, and poor reading skills, and what you're going to get is the hate that Trump has so successfully tapped into.

Throughout our history, white people have been racially privileged. That is true regardless of a white person’s economic status.

What these people want is ugly, racist, and delusional, but their "Fuck You" will be satisfactory enough for them should Trump win.

Well, goodie for them. And fuck them, too.

This isn't about civil rights. It's not about any law. It's about understanding that the largest segment of America's population being held accountable for past sins they had nothing to do with. There is an undeniable undercurrent on the left that believes white people should be punished for [Whatever].

They are not being held “accountable” for past sins or anything else. But these sins of the past reverberate down to the present day, and the whole point is to rectify wrongs. If white working-class people CHOOSE to see this as a zero-sum game then they are wrong. This rectification helps everyone.

I'm 55. I know better now what this denigration of white people is all about, and I understand things much better than when I was 22. But even now when I hear shit about white privilege it can still get under my skin, and I'll be brutally honest: my first thought is Fuck You. I'm quickly able to put it into perspective though. However, a 22 year old kid working his ass off and struggling? He's not going to able to put it into perspective. He's just going to be angry.

While the left is far less dysfunctional than the right, we do have serious unaddressed and willfully malicious issues.

I see nothing willfully malicious in seeking a just society for all.

 

[Politesse]

The notion that to be pro-working class is to be anti-union, and cheer whenever a billionaire awards themselves a free "tax cut" from the national treasury appropo of nothing, does not originate in rational thought. Actually, the idea that white supremacist ideology benefits the working class is pretty absurd. Controlling and redirecting the passions of poor workers was a major motivator behind the notion of a "white race" in the first place. It's just another tier of service to those eternal oligarchs who neither know nor need any national or racial identity unless it serves their bottom line somehow.

 

[Gospel]

I completely understand the frustration of being told you're 'privileged' while you're struggling to make ends meet. However, minorities are also grappling with those same economic challenges—fighting to pay bills, working multiple jobs—while also dealing with additional hurdles like racial bias, underrepresentation, and fewer opportunities due to systemic inequality. It's not about placing blame, but recognizing that income inequality affects us all, with some having to jump additional hurdles. I suppose we could just ignore the other forms of inequality until everyone’s out of the wealth gap— but why on earth would we do that? Economic inequality is huge, but so are the racial, gender, and social inequities that exist alongside it. They all need addressing. This whole "what about us" on the part of working white people is just strange, because any changes that lesson inequality for minorities actually benefit working white people.

Policies like the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which fought racial discrimination but also strengthened workplace protections for all workers. Even The New Deal launched by President Franklin D. Roosevelt (when they stopped discriminating) benefitted everyone. Although I personally believe affirmative action has run its course and its benefits are debated, it undeniably increased diversity in schools and workplaces. Ultimately encouraging economic growth by giving minorities an opportunity to be the better citizens they wanted to be, which benefited everyone, not just minorities. Raising the federal minimum wage, though often seen as benefiting minorities, has also significantly helped working white Americans. Similarly, criminal justice reform, which some argue mainly benefits minorities, actually improves outcomes for everyone impacted by the justice system, regardless of race.

It's not strange. It's a diminution of the things that white people go through too. When you essentially tell someone who's struggling that their struggle isn't real because other people have it worse then the response is going to be a gigantic Fuck You. And "Fuck you" is what Trump has inspired in these people.

I hate Trump with every fiber of my being. I hate what he's inspired, but what he did tap into was decades worth of dismissive ridicule at the hands of the left.

The vast, vast majority of white people aren't privileged. It's an absurd notion, and no one should be expected to tolerate absurdity of any kind. Throw in actual racism, shocking ignorance, and poor reading skills, and what you're going to get is the hate that Trump has so successfully tapped into.

What these people want is ugly, racist, and delusional, but their "Fuck You" will be satisfactory enough for them should Trump win.

This isn't about civil rights. It's not about any law. It's about understanding that the largest segment of America's population being held accountable for past sins they had nothing to do with. There is an undeniable undercurrent on the left that believes white people should be punished for [Whatever].

I'm 55. I know better now what this denigration of white people is all about, and I understand things much better than when I was 22. But even now when I hear shit about white privilege it can still get under my skin, and I'll be brutally honest: my first thought is Fuck You. I'm quickly able to put it into perspective though. However, a 22 year old kid working his ass off and struggling? He's not going to able to put it into perspective. He's just going to be angry.

While the left is far less dysfunctional than the right, we do have serious unaddressed and willfully malicious issues.

I understand and agree with much of what you're saying about the anger and resentment felt by many white working-class Americans, especially when their struggles are dismissed or when they feel unfairly labeled due to "white privilege." It’s true that nobody wants to be told their difficulties don’t matter just because someone else’s may be greater, and I see how this can lead to a “Fuck you” reaction that Trump tapped into so successfully.

However, it’s important to recognize that these sentiments of being unfairly targeted or marginalized aren’t exclusive to white Americans or those on the right. Many people on the left, especially racial minorities and marginalized groups, feel a similar frustration when they are confronted with the growing visibility of fascist and Nazi-like rhetoric from elements on the far right. This kind of rhetoric poses real dangers for these communities, and it’s understandable why they feel under attack. The fear and anger they experience are rooted in America’s long history of systemic racism and violence against people of color, which has disproportionately affected them.

While I agree that not all white Americans are privileged, and their struggles are real, the history of oppression in this country has been far more brutal and systemic for “out groups,” particularly Black and brown communities. This doesn’t mean the challenges faced by white working-class individuals are any less important, but the context is different. Working-class white Americans may feel like they’re “sailing against the wind” in a changing world, but people of color have been battling systemic inequality for generations in ways that continue to impact their lives today.

Furthermore, just as you express frustration with dismissive attitudes from the left, I also acknowledge that many on the left feel similarly attacked when far-right movements embrace racist or fascist ideologies. This doesn’t mean the majority of conservatives or Republicans agree with those views, but the rhetoric from these extreme elements is still hurtful and harmful, just as dismissing white working-class struggles can be.

So, while I understand the anger many people on the right feel when they're told their struggles are less important, we must also acknowledge that marginalized groups on the left feel similarly disregarded in the face of far-right extremism. Both sides feel like they are not being heard or understood, and that's a significant part of the political tension we’re seeing today. The key is recognizing that these feelings exist across the political spectrum and are deeply rooted in both personal struggles and historical realities.

It's puzzling to me that people view these groups as being at odds when, in reality, actions that benefit one often end up benefiting the other as well, assuming discrimination is kept in check. Take, for example, Ron DeSantis' law against protesters blocking roads. The law is designed to protect all people—regardless of race—who rely on safe and open roadways during protests. However, when it wasn't enforced during the Cuban-American protests against the Cuban government’s economic and political conditions, it didn’t benefit anyone. Selective enforcement undermines the very purpose of the law and highlights the importance of consistent application for the greater good.

That selective enforcement felt like a blatant "fuck you" to Black people, coming directly from a right-leaning politician who enjoys strong support from many white working-class Americans in Florida. It’s no surprise that people on the left look at his voters and respond with a "fuck you" right back. This back-and-forth of frustration only deepens the divide. My message to white hard working American's in Florida is how about not voting for politicians like DeSantis if you don't want to be seen as supporting fascism and racism? Just a thought.¯\_(ツ)_/¯

There are plenty of better options than Trump too. So instead of parading around on TV with MAGA hats and Trump flags while he rambles on about pointless bullshit, they could focus on leaders who actually offer meaningful solutions instead of purely Villainizing fellow Americans.

For example, the left should stop treating wealthy people that way, but the wealthy needs to make it less difficult to stop first.

 

[Gospel]

By "wealthy," I’m referring to those who pour their money into assets like stocks, real estate, and extravagant personal luxuries—art, yachts, and the like—rather than investing it in their workers, as Reagan's trickle-down theory promised they would.

 

[Gospel]

But Democrats aren’t telling white people that. If they somehow are hearing that, maybe they have been brainwashed by Fox News?

I agree with this. I was just making my argument from a "even if that's the case" perspective. I should have made that clearer in my writing.

 

[Ford]

At 538, Harris is ahead in 40 national polls, behind in 9, and even in 5. But yes, national polls don’t count in the end. So we will see.

Yeah but using 270towin’s interactive map, and 538’s state polls, Trump eeks out a victory 281-257.

270toWin has Harris ahead 226-219, with the rest tossups.

Right. But I put in the latest poll results from 538. Then you see that Trump wins PA. And this the White House. But it’s incredibly close.

Last I looked 538 was showing tied races in at least four swing states, among them PA I think.

I looked at electoral-vote.com today, and between that, 270 to Win, RCP, and a few other sources I'm thinking I could sell my house and move to one of those "best places for American expats to retire" for at least a few years. I hear Portugal is nice...

 

[pood]

At 538, Harris is ahead in 40 national polls, behind in 9, and even in 5. But yes, national polls don’t count in the end. So we will see.

Yeah but using 270towin’s interactive map, and 538’s state polls, Trump eeks out a victory 281-257.

270toWin has Harris ahead 226-219, with the rest tossups.

Right. But I put in the latest poll results from 538. Then you see that Trump wins PA. And this the White House. But it’s incredibly close.

Last I looked 538 was showing tied races in at least four swing states, among them PA I think.

I looked at electoral-vote.com today, and between that, 270 to Win, RCP, and a few other sources I'm thinking I could sell my house and move to one of those "best places for American expats to retire" for at least a few years. I hear Portugal is nice...

Maybe. I think Harris will win. We’ll see.

 

[Ford]

At 538, Harris is ahead in 40 national polls, behind in 9, and even in 5. But yes, national polls don’t count in the end. So we will see.

Yeah but using 270towin’s interactive map, and 538’s state polls, Trump eeks out a victory 281-257.

270toWin has Harris ahead 226-219, with the rest tossups.

Right. But I put in the latest poll results from 538. Then you see that Trump wins PA. And this the White House. But it’s incredibly close.

Last I looked 538 was showing tied races in at least four swing states, among them PA I think.

I looked at electoral-vote.com today, and between that, 270 to Win, RCP, and a few other sources I'm thinking I could sell my house and move to one of those "best places for American expats to retire" for at least a few years. I hear Portugal is nice...

Maybe. I think Harris will win. We’ll see.

I hope the polls are wrong, and as I've said before, the "walk-up" (voters who hold off until election day) is still a major factor, but I'm still worried.

Side note about Trump's McDonald's stunt: Back in the mid 80s, I also worked in a golden arches location like Harris did. It was just off a major freeway exit, and the lunch rush was so busy I actually blacked out most days while working the grill. I'd start flipping burgers furiously at about 11:30am and then suddenly it would be 1:00pm and it was like "WTF just happened?" One of the clips I saw of Trump was the manager (?) tying his apron for him. If it were real, he wouldn't last a single shift.

 

[pood]

At 538, Harris is ahead in 40 national polls, behind in 9, and even in 5. But yes, national polls don’t count in the end. So we will see.

Yeah but using 270towin’s interactive map, and 538’s state polls, Trump eeks out a victory 281-257.

270toWin has Harris ahead 226-219, with the rest tossups.

Right. But I put in the latest poll results from 538. Then you see that Trump wins PA. And this the White House. But it’s incredibly close.

Last I looked 538 was showing tied races in at least four swing states, among them PA I think.

I looked at electoral-vote.com today, and between that, 270 to Win, RCP, and a few other sources I'm thinking I could sell my house and move to one of those "best places for American expats to retire" for at least a few years. I hear Portugal is nice...

Maybe. I think Harris will win. We’ll see.

I hope the polls are wrong, and as I've said before, the "walk-up" (voters who hold off until election day) is still a major factor, but I'm still worried.

Side note about Trump's McDonald's stunt: Back in the mid 80s, I also worked in a golden arches location like Harris did. It was just off a major freeway exit, and the lunch rush was so busy I actually blacked out most days while working the grill. I'd start flipping burgers furiously at about 11:30am and then suddenly it would be 1:00pm and it was like "WTF just happened?" One of the clips I saw of Trump was the manager (?) tying his apron for him. If it were real, he wouldn't last a single shift.

It was all a stunt. Trump served no one anything. They closed the store to customers to film him pretending to serve customers. Everything about his miserable life is a con and a grift.

 

[pood]

As to the polls being wrong, the national polls have her ahead, and she is in a tight race in the EC.

 

[Gospel]

Did the polling drought conspiracies start circulating yet?

 

[Ford]

As to the polls being wrong, the national polls have her ahead, and she is in a tight race in the EC.

The national polls mean diddly-squat. Same as the popular vote. If either mattered, we'd have had President Gore and then after two terms of him and Obama, President Clinton (Hillary) again.

I get that everyone is fired up, and I hope the outcome is different this time, but I'm reminded of the time I went to a post debate Kerry rally with my then-girlfriend back in 2004. It was awesome, Kerry fired up the crowd, and I was pretty stoked about the outcome.

p.s. of course I know the McDonald's thing was staged. I was just saying that - to anyone who has worked there or at any restaurant job - it was painfully obvious how fake it was. A year or so after I left Ronald McDonald-land, I got a gig as a line cook at a restaurant, and the SOP for the newbies was basically "abuse them relentlessly until they either get their shit together, or they leave in tears." I wound up being a head cook there. If there was a god and/or I had a time machine, I'd love to have little Donnie as a trainee on the line. I could make him cry.

 

[ZiprHead]

You folk need to stop looking at the polls. You're going to give yourselves ulcers. Frankly the polls are bullshit.

 

[ideologyhunter]

The polls were misleading in 2016, to be sure. There was a theory after that election that some voters were not willing to admit to pollsters that they planned to vote for Trump.
The polls in 2020 were more instructive. They showed Biden ahead of Trump by 5 to 10% from the spring onward, with the exception of a few midsummer weeks when Trump nearly pulled even.
This year the polls point to an extremely close race, which I think is true -- with our ridiculous electoral college, the thing will come down to what amounts to a stadium-full of voters in 4 or 5 key states.

 

[robnisch]

In this bizzarro world we are in where the leading candidate talks about a dead golfers penis and the speaker of the house blows it off to criticize the opponent.

WE are doomed!

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Why? Why is it so close?

^ This.

Even if Harris wins, the fact that it was ever even vaguely in question, given her opponent, has brought eternal shame upon the United States of America.

It's a similar process on why people fall for cults, religions in general, believe in conspiracies, etc. This is a human problem, not a USA problem. People are gullible as fuck when they lose trust and then get indoctrinated easily and stay stuck for a long time, if they ever get out of it.

Autocratic, narcissistic personalities tap in to these people's insecurities and sucker them in quite easily.

Yup. Even intelligent people who haven't been taught about manipulation techniques tend to be quite gullible to well-crafted manipulation. I've watched it happen--the two of us who grew up around psychologists immediately recognized it, nobody else would believe even when we pointed out what was happening.

 

[bilby]

the leading candidate talks about a dead golfers penis and the speaker of the house blows it off

Wait, the speaker did what!?

 

[robnisch]

the leading candidate talks about a dead golfers penis and the speaker of the house blows it off

Wait, the speaker did what!?

I knew this happen. Butt, are not most republican leaders cock suckers?