Trump Will Likely Win

[trillian]

Most of the doom and gloom is the same as 2016...and none of it happened then. He threatens the machine and it will thrash when he wins even more than when he campaigns. There should be enough to criticize him on facts, but the lies just get more and more outrageous. The country will be just fine.

If people are just looking at the legacy media through a hatred of Trump, then they are likely going to think half the voters are some selfish bigoted racist imbeciles.... or other such nonsense ...and nothing I say will change it. It is popular among supposed 'critical thinkers' to declare what a Trump voter believes, and how they think about the issues.. and then fling many derogatory names at them.

And that is fine, because I am not in favor to censor it or otherwise punish the speaker.

I'm a woman, a mother to a teen girl, an atheist. I can see both sides of the argument.

I enthusiastically voted Trump! And he is winning.

 

[Elixir]

And he is winning.

Delusion rears its ugly head.
There’s no way you can know that he’s winning.
But I’m sure the apricot agrees. Even if he is getting BIGLY routed.

 

[Elixir]

Most of the doom and gloom is the same as 2016...and none of it happened then.

Other than a million dead Americans, thousands of kids lost in his family separations, leaving office with fewer Americans employed than when he took office, most of his appointees in jail…
Yeah - nothing happened.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Most of the doom and gloom is the same as 2016...and none of it happened then.

Well, no wall, no infrastructure bill, no replacement of ACA, no repeal of ACA.

Oh you meant the issues of destabilizing our democracy. Like what he did and had people chanting to murder the Vice President after the US electorate fired him. Yeah, I can see the "both sides" there.

He threatens the machine and it will thrash when he wins even more than when he campaigns. There should be enough to criticize him on facts, but the lies just get more and more outrageous. The country will be just fine.

Dude is suggesting making RFK Jr head of HHS.

If people are just looking at the legacy media through a hatred of Trump, then they are likely going to think half the voters are some selfish bigoted racist imbeciles.... or other such nonsense ...and nothing I say will change it. It is popular among supposed 'critical thinkers' to declare what a Trump voter believes, and how they think about the issues.. and then fling many derogatory names at them.

Yes, because you need to be critical of people who don't like Trump, because you sure the heck are incapable of actually SUPPORTING Trump and his policies. Because other than his plan to try and send millions of people out of the country, he doesn't actually have any policies to promote. That is why all the ads for the GOP in my area had nothing to do with future policies. Just transgenders and defund the police.

I'm a woman, a mother to a teen girl, an atheist. I can see both sides of the argument.

Both sides of the argument? What argument? Dude says the election was stolen from him in 2020 and he didn't even contest that in court! Trump is the biggest non-argument ever. He just emotes. He doesn't actually make a case. Just like his supporters. They can't explain why they support Trump, or at least, not out loud... or at least they didn't. With the latest drive from the right of wives are "cheating" on their husbands by voting differently than them, they might start saying more of what they really think out loud.

I enthusiastically voted Trump! And he is winning.

This is to be determined. Even the pollsters have little clue what will happen. Anyone that says they know, are an idiot or lying.

 

[ZiprHead]

Most of the doom and gloom is the same as 2016...and none of it happened then.

Other than a million dead Americans, thousands of kids lost in his family separations, leaving office with fewer Americans employed than when he took office, most of his appointees in jail…
Yeah - nothing happened.

Yup.

The willful blindness of Trumpers astounds me.

 

[Elixir]

They can't explain why they support Trump

It’s right there between the lines.
In “black and white”.

 

[Gospel]

Maybe Kamala will be the first Democrat to lose the popular vote and still win the presidency—it’s about time it happened for their side. Republicans are currently 4-0 in that department.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Maybe Kamala will be the first Democrat to lose the popular vote and still win the presidency—it’s about time it happened for their side. Republicans are currently 4-0 in that department.

I saw an article about that. I remember being a rare voice suggesting Gore could lose the EV and win the popular vote in 2000. I wasn't exactly predicting it, but figured it seemed more likely. W was actually being presented in the media as falling under that category as losing the EV but taking the popular vote. I think it is effectively impossible for Harris to lose the popular vote and win the Electoral College. It'd require Trump winning Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, and Florida by much larger amounts than he did in 2020, about 8 to 10 pct pts more. I don't see him pulling that off and not winning the EV.

 

[Derec]

Trump? Let’s just say there currently aren’t any Republican candidates who can rally the MAGA base quite like he can. To my knowledge, no efforts have been made to anticipate that.

Isn't Vance being groomed for that role?

 

[ZiprHead]

Maybe Kamala will be the first Democrat to lose the popular vote and still win the presidency—it’s about time it happened for their side. Republicans are currently 4-0 in that department.

I saw an article about that. I remember being a rare voice suggesting Gore could lose the EV and win the popular vote in 2000. I wasn't exactly predicting it, but figured it seemed more likely. W was actually being presented in the media as falling under that category as losing the EV but taking the popular vote. I think it is effectively impossible for Harris to lose the popular vote and win the Electoral College. It'd require Trump winning Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, and Florida by much larger amounts than he did in 2020, about 8 to 10 pct pts more. I don't see him pulling that off and not winning the EV.

I don't think it could happen but I would just absolutely love to see the righty's heads explode.

 

[ZiprHead]

Trump? Let’s just say there currently aren’t any Republican candidates who can rally the MAGA base quite like he can. To my knowledge, no efforts have been made to anticipate that.

Isn't Vance being groomed for that role?

Groom all they want. There is no substitute for the real thing.

 

[Gospel]

Trump? Let’s just say there currently aren’t any Republican candidates who can rally the MAGA base quite like he can. To my knowledge, no efforts have been made to anticipate that.

Isn't Vance being groomed for that role?

Bruh, Vance looks like the kind of white guy rednecks would chase off their property with a shotgun! I’ve seen that exact scenario play out while installing a water infiltration system out in Bithlo, Florida.

 

[Derec]

Walz was selected for Wisconsin and Michigan with crossover appeal to Pennsylvania.

Let's be honest. The Knucklehead was selected because he said "weird", and that fit Kamala's "vibes and memes" style of campaigning. Before then, he was not on the short list. He wasn't even one of the options on the IIDB's veepstakes poll from July.
I do not think he has much pull in either WI or MI, much less PA. Certainly less so than a popular governor like Josh Shapiro.
She might still win these states, but things are much closer than they should have been.

I doubt the DNC is taking a single vote for granted. 2016 happened.

One of the problems in 2016 is that a lot of Dems were pissed off that DNC put their finger on the scale for Hillary. So what do Dems do this time? Not have competitive primaries at all, but select the nominee by fiat. That is not fixing the problems of 2016.

Trump is trying to get every bigoted vote available among the minorities. To me this is both evidence of Trump's desperation as internal polling is falling or he found a new niche and this direction will help him win.

Including appealing to Michigan Muslims who are mad at Biden and Harris for not just letting Hamas and Hezbollah slaughter Israelis.
Trump courts Arab and Muslim support, with Harris criticized for ‘not engaging’
Arab and Muslim Voters in Michigan: “I Can’t Overlook Genocide”

 

[Derec]

As I've said, there is a poll for everyone this year. Trump could be Dewey tomorrow night.

The guy who came up with those numbers of library books?

 

[Derec]

Sad. A miracle may happen. All of these polls and articles could be wrong. But I fear that Harris is such a poor candidate, and Biden was just too old and dropped out way too late. A year ago, I thought he shouldn’t run, and that Harris should not either. Make a back room deal where she gets to stay as veep, and pick a stronger candidate who would have a much broader appeal and came across more boldly than her.

I agree, except for one thing. No deals. Biden should have withdrawn for 2024 in Summer 2023, but there is no reason why Kamala should not have thrown her hat in the ring and tried her mettle in another competitive primary. And even if she were to emerge victorious, she would have been a stronger candidate for having went through the crucible. "Iron sharpens iron, and one man sharpens another". Proverbs 27:17.

hen when she was nominated I thought she should pick Shapiro. She didn’t, going for Walz, a good guy, but a governor of a fairly solid blue state. He didn’t help her ticket secure a needed swing state.

And didn't turn out to be that much help overall, I don't think. He was meh in the veep debate for example.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Walz was selected for Wisconsin and Michigan with crossover appeal to Pennsylvania.

Let's be honest.

Are you saying I'm lying?

The Knucklehead was selected because he said "weird", and that fit Kamala's "vibes and memes" style of campaigning. Before then, he was not on the short list. He wasn't even one of the option on IIDB's veepstakes poll from July.

Neither was Shapiro.

I do not think he has much pull in either WI or MI, much less PA.

MN and WI share a good deal in common. MI less so, but Upper Midwest is Upper Midwest.

Certainly less so than a popular governor like Josh Shapiro.

You mean the right-coast liberal elite? Harris and Shapiro would have been labeled as out of touch coastal elites. I get you want to make this about anti-Semitism but that is your obsession. Not the obsession of everyone else. There were demographic benefits with a Midwest selection. That was one reason I thought Whitmer would be the choice. But we needed that DEI selection with the White Male.

She might still win these states, but things are much closer than they should have been.

This should be a 1984 plastering! But we can't control how near half of the voting GOP base think or interpret information after 40 years of right-wing media propaganda.

I doubt the DNC is taking a single vote for granted. 2016 happened.

One of the problems in 2016 is that a lot of Dems were pissed off that DNC put their finger on the scale for Hillary. So what do Dems do this time? Not have competitive primaries at all, but select the nominee by fiat. That is not fixing the problems of 2016.

Why is it that the Democrats were fine with the only potential option to go with mid-steam was selected after Biden dropped the ball so badly at the debate, but the outsiders are out of the mind about how evil it was. It is so peculiar... almost weird. Biden wasn't dropping the race. Some might have wanted it, but he pushed for it. And by the time of the debate, it was too late to change all the horses. A choice needed to be made. They had three options, Hillary Clinton (no), Michelle Obama (wouldn't want it), and Kamala Harris (sitting VP).

Trump is trying to get every bigoted vote available among the minorities. To me this is both evidence of Trump's desperation as internal polling is falling or he found a new niche and this direction will help him win.

Including appealing to Michigan Muslims who are mad at Biden and Harris for not just letting Hamas and Hezbollah slaughter Israelis.
Trump courts Arab and Muslim support, with Harris criticized for ‘not engaging’
Arab and Muslim Voters in Michigan: “I Can’t Overlook Genocide”

Yeah, and one of the heads of one of those groups says he supports Harris, so that whole thing might be a nothing burger, TBD. But yeah, Trump is trying to pull in every counterintuitive vote he can. Trump's campaign has mastered nickel and diming the base, 100 votes here and 1000 votes there, and stretching to reach votes within other demographics that actually Venn well with his dark vision of America. They have done extraordinarily well there.

 

[Elixir]

didn't turn out to be that much help overall

In what regard? Getting elected?
If she loses -esp by losing PA - you can blame her for picking him.
If she wins, he was a brilliant choice.

 

[ZiprHead]

MN and WI share a good deal in common. MI less so, but Upper Midwest is Upper Midwest.

Western Upper Michiganders identify more with Wisconsin than Michigan.

 

[Derec]

Are you saying I'm lying?

It's a turn of phrase.

The Knucklehead was selected because he said "weird", and that fit Kamala's "vibes and memes" style of campaigning. Before then, he was not on the short list. He wasn't even one of the option on IIDB's veepstakes poll from July.

Neither was Shapiro.

Neither was Shapiro what? He was certainly on the short list and he was the first option in the IIDB poll (he came a close second in the vote).
A shortlist of Democrats who could be a vice presidential pick for Harris
Article from July 23, the same day the Knucklehead called Republicans "weird" on Morning Joe.

MN and WI share a good deal in common. MI less so, but Upper Midwest is Upper Midwest.

The appeal of home state running mate is limited as is - less than a percentage point, which can still matter in a close race. Appeal of a running mate from a neighboring state is even less though.

You mean the right-coast liberal elite? Harris and Shapiro would have been labeled as out of touch coastal elites.

PA is not a coastal state and Shapiro is a moderate, unlike Walz.

I get you want to make this about anti-Semitism but that is your obsession.

That was certainly part of the calculus. Shapiro being Jewish was anathema to antisemitic fauxgressives and Michigan Muslims.
Progressives sound alarm as Shapiro VP stock rises
Anti-Israel activists cheer Josh Shapiro losing out to Walz in Kamala Harris veepstakes
To point out the fact that there are antisemites in the Democratic base is not an "obsession".

There were demographic benefits with a Midwest selection. That was one reason I thought Whitmer would be the choice. But we needed that DEI selection with the White Male.

I think Whitmer would have been a better choice than Walz frankly. Or Mayor Pete.

Why is it that the Democrats were fine with the only potential option to go with mid-steam was selected after Biden dropped the ball so badly at the debate, but the outsiders are out of the mind about how evil it was. It is so peculiar... almost weird. Biden wasn't dropping the race. Some might have wanted it, but he pushed for it. And by the time of the debate, it was too late to change all the horses. A choice needed to be made. They had three options, Hillary Clinton (no), Michelle Obama (wouldn't want it), and Kamala Harris (sitting VP).

It took Biden three weeks after the disastrous debate to drop out. Some have argued (and I agreed) that there should have been a blitz primary instead of just coronating Kamala. But the more he hesitated, the less this was a viable option.
And again, ideally Biden would have dropped out in 2023. He and his handlers should have realized that he was too old then.

Yeah, and one of the heads of one of those groups says he supports Harris, so that whole thing might be a nothing burger, TBD.

But the Democratic mayor of the Muslim settler colony of Hamtramck, MI has endorsed Trump.
A Muslim Mayor Endorses Trump, and a City of Immigrants Finds Itself Undone

Amer Ghalib has made a lot of national news as the leader of a small, Midwestern city.
His election in 2021 as mayor of Hamtramck, Mich., was itself a headline. Mr. Ghalib, who is from Yemen, became the first Arab American and first Muslim to govern the city. And he was working with what was believed to be the first all-Muslim City Council in the country.
Two years later, Mr. Ghalib created another stir when he and other socially conservative Muslims banned the L.G.B.T.Q. Pride flag from publicly owned flagpoles, alarming liberals who said the move was discriminatory and harmful to the city’s welcoming reputation.
Their fears only heightened last month, after Mr. Ghalib endorsed Donald J. Trump, who as president had ushered in what is known as the Muslim ban, blocking immigrants from seven majority-Muslim nations, including Mr. Ghalib’s home country. Adding to the tensions was a visit by Mr. Trump, who hoped the mayor’s support could peel off a meaningful number of Muslim voters in Michigan, a swing state.
Explaining his support, Mr. Ghalib pointed to a distaste for liberal social views, anger at President Biden’s support of Israel and a belief that Mr. Trump will end the conflict in the Middle East.

But yeah, Trump is trying to pull in every counterintuitive vote he can.

Religious Muslims tend to be extremely socially conservative. It is not as counterintuitive as it seems.

Trump's campaign has mastered nickel and diming the base, 100 votes here and 1000 votes there, and stretching to reach votes within other demographics that actually Venn well with his dark vision of America. They have done extraordinarily well there.

Yupp.

 

[Derec]

In what regard? Getting elected?

In regard to campaigning. He could not even wipe the floor with J.D. Vance at the debate.

If she loses -esp by losing PA - you can blame her for picking him.
If she wins, he was a brilliant choice.

Post hoc, ergo propter hoc fallacy.