Trump Will Likely Win

[Shadowy Man]

The minds of Trump supporters:

View attachment 47853

Perhaps the one thing that may save us is that while this is what his supporters think (the one about censorship is especially funny since the right is banning/burning books and passing "don't say gay" laws), I don't see how he has more supporters than he did in 2020.

he doesn’t need more voters if he can dissuade, make difficult, block or just plain refuse to certify the votes of his opposition.

 

[Elixir]

Btw if we're going by polls, Harris is currently ahead in two key states: https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3905

We’re not going by polls.
As has been noted many times, they’re only useful for noting trends, not for predicting results.
Still, the trend indicated by current polls is encouraging. It just has to continue for six more weeks, and then we have to quash Trump’s attempts to overthrow the results. I am very dubious about that.

 

[GenesisNemesis]

Btw if we're going by polls, Harris is currently ahead in two key states: https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3905

We’re not going by polls.

The only data whatsoever we have on this are polls. Not sure what else you could be going on, and besides it's not very difficult to make the most pessimistic prediction possible.

 

[Elixir]

It was sloppy for me to say we’re not going by polls. I should have said polls reflect something that is probably a reliable analog for changes in voter preference. Even if they accurately reflect the preferences of the electorate, stuff like the shenanigans going on in GA, act to thwart “the will of the people”. In a presidential election it is estimated that a majority for Dems need up to 7 points to reliably prevail.

 

[GenesisNemesis]

It was sloppy for me to say we’re not going by polls. I should have said polls reflect something that is probably a reliable analog for changes in voter preference. Even if they accurately reflect the preferences of the electorate, stuff like the shenanigans going on in GA, act to thwart “the will of the people”. In a presidential election it is estimated that a majority for Dems need up to 7 points to reliably prevail.

I agree it's a concern with the shenanigans. But we can't predict a presidential election outcome purely by those shenanigans either unless there was strong evidence it was going to throw the race towards Republicans, and we don't have that strong evidence yet either. It's still up in the air.

 

[Ford]

It was sloppy for me to say we’re not going by polls. I should have said polls reflect something that is probably a reliable analog for changes in voter preference. Even if they accurately reflect the preferences of the electorate, stuff like the shenanigans going on in GA, act to thwart “the will of the people”. In a presidential election it is estimated that a majority for Dems need up to 7 points to reliably prevail.

As many commenters have said (both here and elsewhere) the margin of victory has to be so big that...I was about to say "the other side can't deny it," but they'll deny it anyway. Trump has already claimed that he actually won California by millions of votes in 2020. The margin of victory has to be bigger than 2020, and while there's nothing we can do to convince the cult members, a 10 million vote spread in the popular vote, a victory of at least 100k voters in key swing states, and an electoral college blowout should be enough to convince most of the country that Harris actually won.

The difference this time is that Trump isn't President, and can't leverage the White House in an effort to steal the vote, and the current VP is - to put it mildly - even less likely to hold off on certifying the votes of the electoral college. Then again, the cult has been installing people at the local and state level, and as we're seeing in Georgia they're doing everything they can to gum up the works. Georgia is now going to have a hand count to verify the results. Will that settle it?

Again, I go back to what happened here in Arizona. According to the official results, Biden won in 2020. There was an official audit, and an official recount that confirmed this result. This wasn't good enough, and the state Senate hired the "Cyber Ninjas" to conduct a hand count/audit of the vote. A company that was founded by a guy who believed the election was "stolen," staffed by Trump supporters who were certain that there was fraud. When this hopelessly biased outfit were done with their "audit," they found that not only did Biden win, but they actually found MORE votes for him.

Did this outcome settle it for Arizona's "Stop the Steal" crowd? No.

If Trump loses on November 5th, neither he nor his supporters will EVER accept it no matter how big the margin of victory. But if the Democratic and independent/swing voters accept it, then that's all we can hope for.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Since they’re so convinced their guy should win, the bigger the margin the more obvious the cheating.

 

[Elixir]

Georgia is now going to have a hand count to verify the results.

Heh. The results from that would arrive around February. I do expect it to be shut down.

If Trump loses on November 5th, neither he nor his supporters will EVER accept it no matter how big the margin of victory. But if the Democratic and independent/swing voters accept it, then that's all we can hope for.

They WILL accept it once he croaks. They’re only pretending so they don’t incur the wrath.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Technically, many countries hand count, thought they typically don't hand count ballots with 20 things on them. It'll cost more money, take longer (again lots of things on a ballot), and the results will almost certainly be within a tiny fraction of a fraction of precision with a machine scan. But this is probably all part of the design. Force counties to leap over the tallest building in their county. Oh, I'm sorry, you didn't leap over the tallest building in Fulton County, your votes don't count. Look, we have the same requirement of every other county, so it is completely fair.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

What are these "hard left positions" people think Harris will adopt? For some reason people who keep saying that fail to specify what those are (Not referring to you, TV&CC).

And how many of those positions are only instantiated by Congress? Presidents can say what they want to happen in the law but the legislature has to enact it so much of what they campaign on never happens.

It surprises me just how many Americans seem to think that the office of President is basically that of an absolute dictator, but with term limits.

It surprised me even more when, in 2016, one of them managed to maintain that erroneous belief, even after being elected to that office.

Note that part of Project 2025 is making everyone appointed. That effectively would make him a dictator.

 

[bilby]

Technically, many countries hand count, thought they typically don't hand count ballots with 20 things on them.

OMG. I can tell you have never been an election worker in Australia. Here Anthony Green, the ABC elections guru, explains in sixty seconds how to cast a Senate vote.



Our senate papers are counted by hand, and until recently, you had to number every box if voting "below the line". They have reduced that requirement to a 'mere' 12 votes minimum, but there are still in the order of 90 candidates on a single paper.

The parties or candidate groups produce their own full list of preferences, and voting "above the line" essentailly means you accept your party's or group's below the line distribution.

Lots of voters still prefer to vote below the line.

I can assure you from personal experience that it takes more than sixty seconds to teach a new Electoral worker how to count Senate papers.

And we have compulsory voting, so there's one of these bad boys to count for each and every voter, which is around 95% of the adult population.

It takes a fair while, but who's in a hurry? The US has two and a half months between election day and inaugauration day; Why would it matter if it took a month to count all the votes? That would still leave enough time for a full recount...

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Technically, many countries hand count, thought they typically don't hand count ballots with 20 things on them.

OMG. I can tell you have never been an election worker in Australia.

That was the tell?

It takes a fair while, but who's in a hurry? The US has two and a half months between election day and inaugauration day; Why would it matter if it took a month to count all the votes? That would still leave enough time for a full recount...

Clearly you've never lived in this country. We barely survived 2000... and there was never a true count in Florida. 2020 led to a riot when it took a while to count the vote. You've got crocs... we've got lawyers and tru Amurkins.

 

[SLD]

It was sloppy for me to say we’re not going by polls. I should have said polls reflect something that is probably a reliable analog for changes in voter preference. Even if they accurately reflect the preferences of the electorate, stuff like the shenanigans going on in GA, act to thwart “the will of the people”. In a presidential election it is estimated that a majority for Dems need up to 7 points to reliably prevail.

Whatever happens it cannot boil down to just Georgia. That could cause a no shit civil war. Especially if the supremes step in and hand Georgia to Trump.

 

[Elixir]

Technically, many countries hand count, thought they typically don't hand count ballots with 20 things on them.

OMG. I can tell you have never been an election worker in Australia. Here Anthony Green, the ABC elections guru, explains in sixty seconds how to cast a Senate vote.



Our senate papers are counted by hand, and until recently, you had to number every box if voting "below the line". They have reduced that requirement to a 'mere' 12 votes minimum, but there are still in the order of 90 candidates on a single paper.

The parties or candidate groups produce their own full list of preferences, and voting "above the line" essentailly means you accept your party's or group's below the line distribution.

Lots of voters still prefer to vote below the line.

I can assure you from personal experience that it takes more than sixty seconds to teach a new Electoral worker how to count Senate papers.

And we have compulsory voting, so there's one of these bad boys to count for each and every voter, which is around 95% of the adult population.

It takes a fair while, but who's in a hurry? The US has two and a half months between election day and inaugauration day; Why would it matter if it took a month to count all the votes? That would still leave enough time for a full recount...

The states have to submit their electors like, a month after the election.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

6ish weeks. 12/12 and 12/18 are deadlines I can't remember what for.

 

[Tigers!]

Technically, many countries hand count, thought they typically don't hand count ballots with 20 things on them.

OMG. I can tell you have never been an election worker in Australia. Here Anthony Green, the ABC elections guru, explains in sixty seconds how to cast a Senate vote.



Our senate papers are counted by hand, and until recently, you had to number every box if voting "below the line". They have reduced that requirement to a 'mere' 12 votes minimum, but there are still in the order of 90 candidates on a single paper.

The parties or candidate groups produce their own full list of preferences, and voting "above the line" essentailly means you accept your party's or group's below the line distribution.

Lots of voters still prefer to vote below the line.

I can assure you from personal experience that it takes more than sixty seconds to teach a new Electoral worker how to count Senate papers.

That reminds me - I have been asked to be a trainer for the next Australia Feral Election. I must say yes to that e-mail.

And we have compulsory voting, so there's one of these bad boys to count for each and every voter, which is around 95% of the adult population.

It takes a fair while, but who's in a hurry?

So many people forget that countries should have procedures in place that allow the orderly (sic) continuation of government during the electoral interregnum. It does not matter if the vote is not done by the next morning.
The sun will still rise in the east.
You will still be able to get out of bed.
Your mother will still love you (Hmm. I cannot assume that will be true. Your vote counts)
The only ones who wish a speedy result are journalistic johnnies who must justify their existence, candidates who get paid from when they are declared the winners and their staff for the same reason.
It is nice to know quickly but it is not essential.

The US has two and a half months between election day and inaugauration day; Why would it matter if it took a month to count all the votes? That would still leave enough time for a full recount...

 

[Derec]

She is a black woman

It has nothing to do with any of that.
But let the record reflect that once again, you are reducing her to her skin color and genitalia.

who is in the standing position.

She wasn't in the standing position when she was with Willie Brown.
You really walked into that one!

Nothing else is necessary.

For you there isn't. Any criticism of Kamala Harris is deflected with references to her race and gender.

 

[Derec]

I want to thank you for that appetite suppressant photo which is indelibly etched in my memory.

It's not a photo. It's a shitty AI rendering.

 

[Derec]

We could have this again!

Those wells have all since been drained, although, if this photo is from LA, there are still some working wells there, although not on the beach. They look like this.

Also, with modern technology, such as horizontal drilling and maximum reservoir contact wells, you can get a lot more oil with a much smaller above-ground footprint than in the days of Daniel Plainview.

And what is your larger point? That we do not need oil? We still very much do. New EV sales are still <10% of new car sales. Even if all new cars sold are some form of EVs by 2040, modern cars can last 20 years or more.
We will need to drill for oil for a long time to come. Kamala's idea to ban fracking and offshore drilling was idiotic.

 

[laughing dog]

[

She wasn't in the standing position when she was with Willie Brown.
You really walked into that one!

No, your attempt at humor proved my point.

For you there isn't. Any criticism of Kamala Harris is deflected with references to her race and gender.

Not any criticism, just the sexist or racist ones. How about you criticize her actual official actions or policies instead of imaginary quid pro quos or personal appearance or attributes?