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US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race
- Thread starter lpetrich
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1cKFNtYCqg
Bigly big league?
Bigly big league?
Jimmy Higgins
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I mean wow. Talk about no sense of perspective. Thanks everybody. Have a good night!
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Right now, it looks like 2012. One trouble with Trump is his statements that he thinks NY and CA are in play. Not only are those states not in play, but they are incredibly expensive to run ads in. If Trump tries to wins states he can't win, that minimizes his chances in Battleground states where at least he is within a chance of winning.
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Are you a Bot?
Harry Bosch
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Repoman: do your really equate violating e-mail policy with killing 49 people at a night club? If so, that's incredibly sad. As a derail, I'll bet that there are many managers who have accidently violated e-mail secrecy policy. I know that I have.
To be fair, while he was under FBI investigation he would have been restricted to buy a gun. He just didn't try during that time. As luck would have it, the FBI blamed his vocal jihadism/racism/anti-gay slurs to others' Islamophobia. Hurrah for political correctness!
fast
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Whatcha mean?
repoman
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Reuters: Half of Likely Voters Back Temporary Ban on All Muslim Entry to United States
angelo
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Perhaps Trump should be given the chance to lead the free world from a position of strength, not on knees like it is at present.
Jimmy Higgins
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Trump isn't strong at all. If you want to look at successful business men, look at someone like Buffet. Trump has never been the long term guy. He wants instant gratification, that isn't how you handle diplomacy or a nation with 325 million people.
Jimmy Higgins
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National polls don't mean anything. Gore won the plurality in '00, but "lost" the electoral vote. Early polling in CA and NY indicate that Democrat strongholds are untouchable. They also indicate purple status for states like Mississippi, Utah, Georgia, and Arizona. The polls that actually only matter, other than another Utah poll indicating Clinton leading would be Iowa, Colorado, Virginia. Trump can not win without those three states, amongst others. They are purplish and the best indicators of who will will. Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana, North Dakota, and Montana would tell us if it'll be an ugly landslide '08 style... or even worse.
repoman
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Clinton doing well in the south east means Trump will lose.
Jimmy Higgins
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You should write a political blog.
Shadowy Man
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Jimmy Higgins
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Jesus Christ man... you are establishing their argument for sterilization.
Trump: Shit! They can reproduce! I've go it, sterilization. Let's make America great again. *snip* *snip* *stupid fucking smirk*
Cheerful Charlie
Contributor
Latest Polls shows Trump's negative are at a 70%. Keep talking Donald! Keep bloviating!
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/a636...mericans-overwhelmingly-view-trump-negatively
Seven in 10 people, including close to half of Republican voters, have an unfavorable view of Trump, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. It's an opinion shared by majorities of men and women; young and old; conservatives, moderates and liberals; and whites, Hispanics and blacks — a devastatingly broad indictment of the billionaire businessman.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/a636...mericans-overwhelmingly-view-trump-negatively
Seven in 10 people, including close to half of Republican voters, have an unfavorable view of Trump, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. It's an opinion shared by majorities of men and women; young and old; conservatives, moderates and liberals; and whites, Hispanics and blacks — a devastatingly broad indictment of the billionaire businessman.
Terrell
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I wouldn't put too much confidence in the polls at this time. People can, and might, change their minds between now & November. I also don't trust the Republicans to nominate Trump if they think he's going to get blown out. I would not be surprised if they found a way to send Kasich, Cruz, or someone else if they think that they can pull off the switch without a revolt of their base.
Cheerful Charlie
Contributor
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/bloomberg-poll-clinton-trump
A new Bloomberg poll published Tuesday shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 49 percent to 37 percent among likely voters nationwide. It also showed that 55 percent of those polled said that they would never vote for Trump.
Yeah, polls can change, but so far, I like the changes in the polls this week. Still, this leaves 14% either undecided or who will vote for neither.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster
[h=3]2016 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton[/h] 45% Hillary Clinton
39% Donald Trump
A new Bloomberg poll published Tuesday shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 49 percent to 37 percent among likely voters nationwide. It also showed that 55 percent of those polled said that they would never vote for Trump.
Yeah, polls can change, but so far, I like the changes in the polls this week. Still, this leaves 14% either undecided or who will vote for neither.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster
[h=3]2016 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton[/h] 45% Hillary Clinton
39% Donald Trump
I think you may have a higher than normal third party vote this year. A lot of people don't want either of these two.
MarkW
Senior Member
Exactly. Polls at this stage are still not going to be an accurate predictor of the outcome in November. You can find plenty of historical examples where polls in June were way off at predicting the final outcome--e.g., in 1988, polls showed Dukakis with a solid lead over Bush, while in 1992 Perot was winning the popular vote. It won't be until August or September, probably, that general election polls will start to be more reliable. Even then, it's best to focus on the various averages of polls that HuffPo, RCP, et. al., publish.
As for the Republicans dumping Trump, I am pretty doubtful that they would do so, if only because 1) they would anger a sizable portion of their base--if even 30-40% of the voters who supported Trump in the primaries decided to sit the November election out, that would cost them 4-5 million votes, and 2) the obvious alternative, Cruz, is widely disliked among the GOP establishment.
Cheerful Charlie
Contributor
Possibly, but there aren't many third parties with a candidate to vote for and they won't be anything more that, a protest vote. Greens and Libertarians. The Reform party hasn't fielded a candidate. You might see some write in votes, but just a few. The big problem may be voters who stay home out of disgust.