US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

[lpetrich]

Checking on cnn.com/election I find that Hillary Clinton is the winner of the last of the Democratic primaries, the DC one: District Of Columbia Primary Results – 2016 Election

• Clinton: 75,223 votes, 78.7%, 16 pledged delegates, 23 superdelegates
• Sanders: 20,137 votes, 21.1%, 4 pledged delegates, 2 superdelegates

I'm seeing rumors of a third-party run by Bernie Sanders. That would make him a spoiler, as Ralph Nader had been.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

In '12 Johnson went no where, but we are in an odd situation where the establishment people have no where else to turn, so maybe he does get the votes. Don't see it affecting too much other than close red leaning purple states moving to Clinton (Georgia, Arizona).

Checking on cnn.com/election I find that Hillary Clinton is the winner of the last of the Democratic primaries, the DC one: District Of Columbia Primary Results – 2016 Election

• Clinton: 75,223 votes, 78.7%, 16 pledged delegates, 23 superdelegates
• Sanders: 20,137 votes, 21.1%, 4 pledged delegates, 2 superdelegates

I'm seeing rumors of a third-party run by Bernie Sanders. That would make him a spoiler, as Ralph Nader had been.

He'd need a party to run with that is already registered. I can't see Sanders doing a third party run.

 

[Terrell]

I wouldn't put too much confidence in the polls at this time. People can, and might, change their minds between now & November. I also don't trust the Republicans to nominate Trump if they think he's going to get blown out. I would not be surprised if they found a way to send Kasich, Cruz, or someone else if they think that they can pull off the switch without a revolt of their base.

Exactly. Polls at this stage are still not going to be an accurate predictor of the outcome in November. You can find plenty of historical examples where polls in June were way off at predicting the final outcome--e.g., in 1988, polls showed Dukakis with a solid lead over Bush, while in 1992 Perot was winning the popular vote. It won't be until August or September, probably, that general election polls will start to be more reliable. Even then, it's best to focus on the various averages of polls that HuffPo, RCP, et. al., publish.

As for the Republicans dumping Trump, I am pretty doubtful that they would do so, if only because 1) they would anger a sizable portion of their base--if even 30-40% of the voters who supported Trump in the primaries decided to sit the November election out, that would cost them 4-5 million votes, and 2) the obvious alternative, Cruz, is widely disliked among the GOP establishment.

Yeah, I think the same thing too about the polls. I would add to that to watch for trends starting around Labor Day. As to switching candidates I have mixed feelings on how it would go over. I think it would piss off a good chunk of the base, but I also think that there's plenty of hatred for Hillary Clinton on that side of the aisle. Those things might cancel each other out, I'm not sure.

 

[angelo]

Perhaps Trump should be given the chance to lead the free world from a position of strength, not on knees like it is at present.

Trump isn't strong at all. If you want to look at successful business men, look at someone like Buffet. Trump has never been the long term guy. He wants instant gratification, that isn't how you handle diplomacy or a nation with 325 million people.

He will have an army of advisors, plus Congress and the Senate to keep him in check. I think he'd be better than the alternative.

 

[angelo]

I know this site isn't liked by many on this thread, but here is in my opinion, a non PC statement.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2016/06/obamas-post-orlando-tirade-islam-is-sacred-and-beyond-reproach

 

[jonatha]

Trump isn't strong at all. If you want to look at successful business men, look at someone like Buffet. Trump has never been the long term guy. He wants instant gratification, that isn't how you handle diplomacy or a nation with 325 million people.

He will have an army of advisors, plus Congress and the Senate to keep him in check. I think he'd be better than the alternative.

Aaaand, we can add "better" to the list of words that evidently have distinct meanings in US English and Ozian...

Trump's current army of advisors hasn't been able to corral him.

I admit I think it likely Congress would reassert itself as an effective branch of government were President Trump sitting in the White House, but that seems a steep price to pay.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Checking on cnn.com/election I find that Hillary Clinton is the winner of the last of the Democratic primaries, the DC one: District Of Columbia Primary Results – 2016 Election

• Clinton: 75,223 votes, 78.7%, 16 pledged delegates, 23 superdelegates
• Sanders: 20,137 votes, 21.1%, 4 pledged delegates, 2 superdelegates

I'm seeing rumors of a third-party run by Bernie Sanders. That would make him a spoiler, as Ralph Nader had been.

Yea, it's very sad. I've lost a lot of respect for Sanders. By every measure, he lost the race. He lost by popular vote (the most important indicator), delegate vote, super delegate vote. The only way that Bernie can win now is if the democratic party becomes a dictatorship. Is that really what he wants?

Secondly, I heard that Clinton said all the right things at their meeting. But Bernie is concerned that she'll reach towards the moderates in order to win Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Well, I hate to point out the obvious, but the dems can't win without at least 2/3 of Ohio, Florida, and Virginia! I've always suspected that Bernie isn't really interested in being a leader. I've always believed that he is more interested in being a divider and a rebel rouser. This is why I voted for Clinton. She's out to beat Trump and create a better country. Bernie is out to attack windmills.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Trump isn't strong at all. If you want to look at successful business men, look at someone like Buffet. Trump has never been the long term guy. He wants instant gratification, that isn't how you handle diplomacy or a nation with 325 million people.

He will have an army of advisors, plus Congress and the Senate to keep him in check. I think he'd be better than the alternative.

The dangerous thing about Trump is that he is a micro-manager who doesn't know what he's doing. For example, he has an army of advisers right now and clearly isn't listening to them. Why should be believe that he'll all of a sudden start relying on advisers after he's elected?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump isn't strong at all. If you want to look at successful business men, look at someone like Buffet. Trump has never been the long term guy. He wants instant gratification, that isn't how you handle diplomacy or a nation with 325 million people.

He will have an army of advisors...

Trump had Ben Carson as part of his crew to help select VP nominees. He has foreign policy advisors some people have never heard of.

...plus Congress and the Senate to keep him in check.

Yeah, that worked so well with the Decider between '01 and '09.

I think he'd be better than the alternative.

It is something, but I wouldn't call it thinking.

 

[RavenSky]

Trump isn't strong at all. If you want to look at successful business men, look at someone like Buffet. Trump has never been the long term guy. He wants instant gratification, that isn't how you handle diplomacy or a nation with 325 million people.

He will have an army of advisors, plus Congress and the Senate to keep him in check. I think he'd be better than the alternative.

The Congress he just told to sit down and shut up? No. I also used to think that if bad came to worst and he were elected, he would listen to advisors and have Congress keep him in check. Now I don't think so. I think he'd be a dictator and cause irreparable harm until he was impeached.

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[Tristan Scott]

I know this site isn't liked by many on this thread, but here is in my opinion, a non PC statement.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2016/06/obamas-post-orlando-tirade-islam-is-sacred-and-beyond-reproach

Non-PC? Call it what it is, it's a site that advocates hate, war and violence.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

He will have an army of advisors, plus Congress and the Senate to keep him in check. I think he'd be better than the alternative.

The Congress he just told to sit down and shut up? No. I also used to think that if bad came to worst and he were elected, he would listen to advisors and have Congress keep him in check. Now I don't think so. I think he'd be a dictator and cause irreparable harm until he was impeached.

Sent from my SM-G920T1 using Tapatalk

Heck, I'm pondering the long-term damage his campaign will have on American Politics. Sarah Palin was the start of this death spiral of the Republican Party and hyper partisan politics.

 

[ZiprHead]

So who is crazy enough (besides Palin, of course) to become Trump's running mate?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Polling shows Clinton well in the lead in Wisconsin and has a lead with margin of error in Virginia. Trump losing Virginia loses the election unless he can take Pennsylvania. And I can't see Virginia going opposite of Pennsylvania. Potential bad news is that Feingold has a near double digit lead on Johnson. Is the Tea Party in trouble? Of course not... gerrymandering thanks to 2010 protects districts unlike in the Senate where no such protection is possible. However, the Republicans do still need the turnout.

How's about some liberal wet dream talk? Feingold back in the Senate and gets to be the Majority Leader?

So who is crazy enough (besides Palin, of course) to become Trump's running mate?

I always presumed that the crucial VP selection would be to offset Trump's insanity and try to recover female and Latino votes as much as possible. Trump then pissed on Susanna Martinez.

Basically I think spineless Paul Ryan will be the choice seeing he keeps doing shit he says he'd never do. But in all honesty, I have no clue. There are no Senior Tea Party reps. Maybe a Governor somewhere? Running with Trump is political suicide so you'd either need to be dumb, done, or want a book contract. Nikki Hailey has too much potential. Of course a selection like Jindal doesn't help as he is even more poison.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

The Congress he just told to sit down and shut up? No. I also used to think that if bad came to worst and he were elected, he would listen to advisors and have Congress keep him in check. Now I don't think so. I think he'd be a dictator and cause irreparable harm until he was impeached.

Sent from my SM-G920T1 using Tapatalk

Heck, I'm pondering the long-term damage his campaign will have on American Politics. Sarah Palin was the start of this death spiral of the Republican Party and hyper partisan politics.

I don't think that she was the start of the death spiral, I just think that she was a result of it which should have served as a warning. If you think of the GOP as a house that's just exploded due to a long neglected gas leak (which I feel is a fairly apt analogy), Palin was the weird smell that meant they were supposed to call a service technician instead of just ignoring it. Then Trump is the guy who thought the gas leak was cool so he went to take a closer look at it and then lit a cigarette.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The start of the GOP death spiral was the creation of the tea party. Funded by trouble making, smirking millionaires, it has driven Republican politics of the tracks. It seemed like a good idea at the time....

 

[Tristan Scott]

So who is crazy enough (besides Palin, of course) to become Trump's running mate?

Christie and Gingrich seem to want it real bad. Neither bring much to the ticket politically which means he'll probably pick one of them.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Heck, I'm pondering the long-term damage his campaign will have on American Politics. Sarah Palin was the start of this death spiral of the Republican Party and hyper partisan politics.

I don't think that she was the start of the death spiral, I just think that she was a result of it which should have served as a warning. If you think of the GOP as a house that's just exploded due to a long neglected gas leak (which I feel is a fairly apt analogy), Palin was the weird smell that meant they were supposed to call a service technician instead of just ignoring it. Then Trump is the guy who thought the gas leak was cool so he went to take a closer look at it and then lit a cigarette.

I disagree. She was the start of death spiral. The dive began when they selected a dodge drafting simpleton over a war hero bipartisan Senator. The decline started with Reagan which was inspired by the resignation of Nixon.

- - - Updated - - -

So who is crazy enough (besides Palin, of course) to become Trump's running mate?

Christie and Gingrich seem to want it real bad. Neither bring much to the ticket politically which means he'll probably pick one of them.

Gingrich would be an interesting selection for an "outsider" candidate. Granted, it could be said that Gingrich offers a connection to DC, of course Gingrich is probably the biggest DC insider there ever was. However, obfuscation has never been a weakness for Trump supporters.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

So who is crazy enough (besides Palin, of course) to become Trump's running mate?

Christie and Gingrich seem to want it real bad. Neither bring much to the ticket politically which means he'll probably pick one of them.

I'd like it to be Christie. Trump already thinks that he can win New York, so if he puts Christie on the ticket, they'll probably spend a lot of time campaigning in New Jersey as well. Then, after he loses both of them, the rants and rationalizations in his concession speech will be even funnier than they're already going to be. The only downside would be that all the GOP congressmen in swing states would be breathing sighs of relief that he's not spending as much time there, so there's less opportunities for photos of them on a stage with Trump to help kill their chances at reelection.

Gingrich is so 1990s. Bringing him out would be kind of like watching a new Steven Seagal movie. The guy may have been cool back in the day, but now it would just be watching some old, fat guy wandering around on the screen wasting your time.

 

[funinspace]

So who is crazy enough (besides Palin, of course) to become Trump's running mate?

Christie and Gingrich seem to want it real bad. Neither bring much to the ticket politically which means he'll probably pick one of them.

Michele Bachmann could be kind of fun, and would counterbalance Trump's random insanity with some focused insanity. And she would probably accept the opportunity. They could work towards an inverted version of the 1984 Electoral Map.