US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

[Harry Bosch]

So, how relevant is Sanders looking these days? It seems that he may have overplayed his hand and missed his opportunity to be able to force a deal on the issues which matter to him.

According to the latest polls I've seen, only 8% of Sanders voters said that they'd consider voting for Trump, compared to 20% of Clinton voters who said they'd vote for McCain at this same time in 2008. With the prominent position that Warren is taking in the Clinton campaign, there's a path to get the left wing inspired absent Sanders' help, so he seems a lot less relevant than he did a couple of weeks ago.

Thoughts?

His support and influence plummeted when he tried to convince the super delegates to ignore the popular vote and elect him rather than HRC. Obviously a lot of people favored him over HRC. But Bernie tried to win with tricks rather than the vote. That hurt him. And now, rather than try to unify the party and attack Trump, he wastes his time trying to get democrats fired who hurt his feelings.

 

[Sarpedon]

Fivethirtyeight has its election forecast up. Quite reassuring.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Most remarkable: in the 'polls only' forecast, 6/8 of the closest races are states that previously went solidly republican. Only 2 were called 'swing states' in the previous election, and only one of these, North Carolina, was won by Romney.

The 'Polls plus' forecast is slightly less optimistic and more like the last election. Still heavily favors Clinton.

 

[Terrell]

That's good news for now. I still think it's too early to say one way or the other. The Republican convention still needs to happen, to make sure they don't find a way to dump Trump before the election. There are people trying to start a delegate revolt at the convention. We'll have to wait and see if anything comes of it. If they do dump Trump; we'll have to see who they replace him with.

Even if Trump defeats the Never Trump people; I wouldn't rely on polls this far out. It is a good place for HRC to start, lets check again after the Republican Convention, just to make sure they don't switch candidates.

 

[MarkW]

That's good news for now. I still think it's too early to say one way or the other. The Republican convention still needs to happen, to make sure they don't find a way to dump Trump before the election. There are people trying to start a delegate revolt at the convention. We'll have to wait and see if anything comes of it. If they do dump Trump; we'll have to see who they replace him with.

Even if Trump defeats the Never Trump people; I wouldn't rely on polls this far out. It is a good place for HRC to start, lets check again after the Republican Convention, just to make sure they don't switch candidates.

While I think the downside of dropping Trump as the nominee--the likelihood of alienating a sizable number of his supporters--means that "dump Trump" won't happen, I agree that it's too soon to feel anywhere near certain about the election outcome. There have been multiple elections in my time where poll numbers changed considerably from June to November (1988 and 2000 come to mind).

 

[Terrell]

That's good news for now. I still think it's too early to say one way or the other. The Republican convention still needs to happen, to make sure they don't find a way to dump Trump before the election. There are people trying to start a delegate revolt at the convention. We'll have to wait and see if anything comes of it. If they do dump Trump; we'll have to see who they replace him with.

Even if Trump defeats the Never Trump people; I wouldn't rely on polls this far out. It is a good place for HRC to start, lets check again after the Republican Convention, just to make sure they don't switch candidates.

While I think the downside of dropping Trump as the nominee--the likelihood of alienating a sizable number of his supporters--means that "dump Trump" won't happen, I agree that it's too soon to feel anywhere near certain about the election outcome. There have been multiple elections in my time where poll numbers changed considerably from June to November (1988 and 2000 come to mind).

I agree, I do think that Trump isn't above burning the whole thing down if he's denied the nomination. As long as that's a metaphor and actual arson, or other crimes, don't happen I think such a reaction is justified. He did get the most votes & the most delegates. I know some argue that there were more Republicans that voted for other candidates than him. This argument is flawed because it assumes that staying home, or voting for Trump wouldn't have been the second choice of at least some of them, absent their first choice. I don't think we can know that answer for sure, or in what numbers. Riotous Trump supporters, should Trump not get the nomination, is something that wouldn't surprise me.

 

[angelo]

This thread should be renamed to " Clinton, first female president of the US! "

 

[Tom Sawyer]

This thread should be renamed to " Clinton, first female president of the US! "

Ya, it's like a 12 year old who just stopped breast feeding. It's great that it happened, but kind of weird that it took so long.

 

[James Brown]

Nate Silver says Trump's chances of winning are 20 to 25 percent.

 

[Sarpedon]

I do not see the dump Trump movement as being a path to victory for the republicans, for the simple reason that they haven't been able to answer the most important question: Who instead? What republican has the stature to unify the party, raise huge funds, challenge Clinton, and who isn't already perceived as a loser? They are truly in zugzwang.

Yes it is early to tell, but the only one who's dug himself out of a popularity hole like this one was Bush, Sr. An eminently respectable man, a WW2 veteran and statesman of great experience, with the undivided backing of his party, and facing a relatively unprepared opponent. Unlike Trump, who is out of money, who doesn't know how to campaign or organize, has no ground game, is undisciplined, who has alienated huge numbers of people, is not backed by his own party, and facing a seasoned opponent who has absorbed 25 years of relentless attacks against her without blinking, and who's party malcontents have largely rallied around.

ETA: and I forgot the relatively strong showing by the Libertarians under Johnson this year.

 

[Shadowy Man]

I do not see the dump Trump movement as being a path to victory for the republicans, for the simple reason that they haven't been able to answer the most important question: Who instead? What republican has the stature to unify the party, raise huge funds, challenge Clinton, and who isn't already perceived as a loser? They are truly in zugzwang.

They're going to hold their noses and eat the shit sandwich they made for themselves.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

I do not see the dump Trump movement as being a path to victory for the republicans, for the simple reason that they haven't been able to answer the most important question: Who instead? What republican has the stature to unify the party, raise huge funds, challenge Clinton, and who isn't already perceived as a loser? They are truly in zugzwang.

Yes it is early to tell, but the only one who's dug himself out of a popularity hole like this one was Bush, Sr. An eminently respectable man, a WW2 veteran and statesman of great experience, with the undivided backing of his party, and facing a relatively unprepared opponent. Unlike Trump, who is out of money, who doesn't know how to campaign or organize, has no ground game, is undisciplined, who has alienated huge numbers of people, is not backed by his own party, and facing a seasoned opponent who has absorbed 25 years of relentless attacks against her without blinking, and who's party malcontents have largely rallied around.

ETA: and I forgot the relatively strong showing by the Libertarians under Johnson this year.

The Libertarians (not the real libertarians, but the fake kind of libertarians who call themselves libertarians without being officially libertarian according to the judgment of actual libertarians) may be the thing that saves the GOP in this election.

There's going to be a far smaller subset of people who come out and vote just for the downticket races if they don't like the top of the ticket. Republicans who are anti-Trump are more likely to just stay home rather than go vote for their congressman. If the Libertarians put a palatable candidate for them on the ticket, that might be enough to inspire them to come out to the ballot box and then vote for the GOP downticket items as well.

 

[repoman]

Kyle Kulinski giving a very good if repetitive analysis.

 

[angelo]

According to the latest polling, it's Clinton 38% to Trump 41% .

 

[Harry Bosch]

Kyle Kulinski giving a very good if repetitive analysis.

Could you summarize? I don't support Trump because I think that he's a thin skinned bully who is a conspiracy nut. We know what we're going to get with Hillary: an administration similar to Bill and Obama. What the hell will we get from crazy Trump? Trump is too unpredictable. Does that make me an "elite"?

 

[Horatio Parker]

According to the latest polling, it's Clinton 38% to Trump 41% .

On most news days this month, there has been some pointless story about a single poll. Journalists’ instincts to report on the exceptional event are totally inappropriate for following polls, where the median result is the one that is most likely to be true. After 12 years of poll aggregation, wouldn’t their profession have adopted better practices by now ? Anyway, Clinton has been up by 5 to 7 percentage points all month. There is nothing else to say about that

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/06/29/graph-of-the-day/

 

[Sea of red]

I think a lot of conservative pundits see the writing on the wall already. They've got a sense that the whole fascination with Trump has faded. People no longer find his unfiltered rantings entertaining at this point, and they're seeing what a cook he actually is.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

I think a lot of conservative pundits see the writing on the wall already. They've got a sense that the whole fascination with Trump has faded. People no longer find his unfiltered rantings entertaining at this point, and they're seeing what a cook he actually is.

I think that the key will be the convention. Trump does have the ability to put in a good show, but his schtick could fail badly. If the convention fails, it will fail badly and he'll be basically on his own until the election. The Dump Trump movement doesn't have the numbers to unseat him at the convention and they're going to find themselves spending the summer with a serious case of buyers remorse if he doesn't pull it off.

 

[MarkW]

According to the latest polling, it's Clinton 38% to Trump 41% .

I don't know where you're getting your "Clinton 38%, Trump 41%" from. There was a single poll released today, out of four, which showed Trump leading by a 43-39 margin. The other three polls out today showed Clinton leading (as she has in every other poll released in the last 5-6 weeks), by margins ranging from 4-10 points. The single poll with Trump ahead, moreover, was from Rasmussen, which according to Nate Silver has a Republican "house bias."

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I think a lot of conservative pundits see the writing on the wall already. They've got a sense that the whole fascination with Trump has faded. People no longer find his unfiltered rantings entertaining at this point, and they're seeing what a cook he actually is.

I think that the key will be the convention. Trump does have the ability to put in a good show, but his schtick could fail badly. If the convention fails, it will fail badly and he'll be basically on his own until the election. The Dump Trump movement doesn't have the numbers to unseat him at the convention and they're going to find themselves spending the summer with a serious case of buyers remorse if he doesn't pull it off.

The problem is if Trump goes to the convention with nothing new, the same old - same old, just louder and brasher. The only real big thing that will happen is his pronouncement of his vice presidential pick. Of course it could be a real train wreck, a circus, with the #never-Trump people wimping out but distracting everyone, protests, arrests and crowd weirdness to distract us and entertain us. And if his VP is controversial, say Nutty Newt Gingrich, Who knows what will happen? I do not though, see Trump pleasantly surprising us with a more presidential manner and a new seriousness that bodes well for his election efforts. And new policies that make him more electable.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The GOP convention in Cleveland is starts July 18, Monday, and runs to the 21st. Are you ready? Is you ready for possibly the biggest freak show on Earth save for the Middle East ISIS fiasco? Is your browser able to stream the proceedings? Have you decided what beer you will get and what food you will be eating while watching this all go down? Do you have your barf bucket ready?