US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

[bilby]

Tuesday, March 8:
Hawaii Republican caucuses
Idaho (Republicans only)
Michigan
Mississippi

Here we go again. Can the GOP stop der Trumster?

The GOP (Goof Off Party) does not appear capable of stopping der Trumptster. But I think he will be stopped because he is just too Nazi like and his actually followership is not really a very large number of people. There are always people who simply worship rich. They are not the majority of Americans, but seem to be an increasing fraction of people who call themselves Republicans.

Being a fascist is, unfortunately, not sufficient to render someone unpopular. If it was, there wouldn't be fascists. Trump's following is very large indeed; They are not the majority of Americans, but then, they don't actually need to be - particularly when only about 40% of eligible voters even bother to cast a ballot. Your entire electoral system is configured in a way that amplifies the voice of the extremists and fanatics, and candidates like Trump are the inevitable result.

The majority of Americans simply don't care enough to vote; and won't care until they see the real world effects of a Trump presidency - by which time it will be far too late.

 

[blastula]

Rubio and Kasich are idiots for thinking they have a chance at this point.

They're needed to stay in to see if they can at least take their respective states and force a brokered convention. I think it is the hope of the GOP that by this time, attitudes will have shifted enough that they can push the nomination toward Rubio or Kasich without causing a party split. I'm not sure I've got this all straight though.

That appears to be the plan. But if it's a brokered convention, that also means anybody can end up the nominee, even if they're not even running now. That could be what Romney is hoping for.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

They're needed to stay in to see if they can at least take their respective states and force a brokered convention. I think it is the hope of the GOP that by this time, attitudes will have shifted enough that they can push the nomination toward Rubio or Kasich without causing a party split. I'm not sure I've got this all straight though.

That appears to be the plan. But if it's a brokered convention, that also means anybody can end up the nominee, even if they're not even running now. That could be what Romney is hoping for.

Maybe not. There are rules. The GOP's Rule #40 states nobody can be nominated in a brokered convention who has not won at least 8 states in the primary.

http://legalinsurrection.com/2016/0...rd-undemocratic-result-and-should-be-changed/

(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.

Of course, some GOP honchos are now opining they may have to change this rule prior to the convention. Which the Trump forces would vigorously oppose I am sure, if Trump sensed it was a move to cheat him out of the nomination.

 

[blastula]

Pledged delegates can also change their votes after the first round.

 

[bleubird]

OMG The repugs are talking about penis size.And there are still lead pipes in the great USA?
When are the grownups going step in?

 

[ZiprHead]

Here in Michigan, Bernie is leading 51/48. Kasich and Trump are swapping leads as results come in.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

Which is one more reason to toss onto the heap as to why he is unsuitable for the office. No one knows where the heck he actually stands anymore... I mean other than being Pro-Trump and probably putting some gold trim on the White House... I mean Trump House.

Better somebody whom you do not know where he stands then somebody like Cruz you can take at his word but the word is rotten to the core.

It really is something of a conundrum.

Trump's biggest threat to the nation is that he would force a military coup by ordering military leadership to commit illegal acts (e.g. targeting families of terrorists). There has been some grumbling about that lately. But would that come to pass? Impossible to say.

His talk of trade wars is scary as fuck as is his threatening the civil liberties of millions of people. But that's hard to do when you have two other branches of government to get through first and when neither major party will back you. If Trump did actually try a lot of crazy shit, he'd be blocked at every turn.

But Cruz on the other hand, that motherfucker would have the full support of his party. If we thought Scalia was bad, what would a Cruz appointee supported by a Republican Senate look like? And say Ruth Ginsberg dies or is forced to retire due to her health? That would give Cruz two SCOTUS appointees and a 6-3 conservative majority in the Court. We'd be fucked until 2040, and by then, the damage that would be done would take another 40 years to be reversed. The only upside to that is that we'll all be dead by then.

So Cruz or Trump. I'll go with the Drumpf. His reeking stench is less than that of Cruz.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

That appears to be the plan. But if it's a brokered convention, that also means anybody can end up the nominee, even if they're not even running now. That could be what Romney is hoping for.

Maybe not. There are rules. The GOP's Rule #40 states nobody can be nominated in a brokered convention who has not won at least 8 states in the primary.

http://legalinsurrection.com/2016/0...rd-undemocratic-result-and-should-be-changed/

(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.

Of course, some GOP honchos are now opining they may have to change this rule prior to the convention. Which the Trump forces would vigorously oppose I am sure, if Trump sensed it was a move to cheat him out of the nomination.

That would be the ideal outcome--changing the rules in advance of the convention.

The Trumpster's mentality is that they're not going to vote for anyone but Trump and if their candidate is denied what they reasonably see as his right to the nomination by a made up rule to prevent just that, they won't vote for whomever it is the GOP nominates. They'll either stay home or create a third party that all but dooms the GOP. And it could be a permanent thing.

They don't have the numbers to put together a challenge to Democratic Party and the GOP won't have enough left over to be considered a major party anymore. It would take years for a viable non-Democratic party to coalesce enough to win a national election. You'd have three iterations of conservatives:

1. Trumpsters (Fucking Batshit)
2. The Tea Party (Batshit)
3. The Republican Party (A Few Steps Short of Batshit)

Who would fill the void?

Libertarians? Maybe. The dropping of social issues combined with pro-business ideals might become the new opposition to the Dems. But that ain't gonna happen in four short years.

 

[MarkW]

Here in Michigan, Bernie is leading 51/48. Kasich and Trump are swapping leads as results come in.

With around one-third of the precincts reporting, Sanders still holds a 51-47 lead in the Michigan Democratic primary; however, there are still a lot of votes in Wayne County (e.g., Detroit) to be counted. Clinton will probably pull ahead when all the votes are in, but it's going to be much closer than the polls indicated. Nate Silver's 538 site, for example, was projecting a 20 point margin or so for Clinton.

The Donald, meanwhile, is projected to win Michigan on the Republican side, with the one remaining question of the night being whether Cruz will overtake Kasich for second place.

Clinton and The Donald are winning handily in Mississippi.

 

[Derec]

OMG The repugs are talking about penis size.

It's all very Biblical political rhetoric.

6 King Rehoboam consulted with the elders who had [c]served his father Solomon while he was still alive, saying, “How do you counsel me to answer this people?”
7 Then they spoke to him, saying, “If you will be a servant to this people today, and will serve them and [d]grant them their petition, and speak good words to them, then they will be your servants forever.”
8 But he forsook the counsel of the elders which they had given him, and consulted with the young men who grew up with him [e]and served him.
9 So he said to them, “What counsel do you give that we may answer this people who have spoken to me, saying, ‘Lighten the yoke which your father put on us’?”
10 The young men who grew up with him spoke to him, saying, “Thus you shall say to this people who spoke to you, saying, ‘Your father made our yoke heavy, now you make it lighter for us!’ But you shall speak to them, ‘My little finger is thicker than my father’s loins!
11 Whereas my father loaded you with a heavy yoke, I will add to your yoke; my father disciplined you with whips, but I will discipline you with scorpions.’”

Loins being an obvious euphemism for penis.

I would have paid good money to hear Trump say that sentence about Little Marco.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Here in Michigan, Bernie is leading 51/48. Kasich and Trump are swapping leads as results come in.

With around one-third of the precincts reporting, Sanders still holds a 51-47 lead in the Michigan Democratic primary; however, there are still a lot of votes in Wayne County (e.g., Detroit) to be counted. Clinton will probably pull ahead when all the votes are in, but it's going to be much closer than the polls indicated. Nate Silver's 538 site, for example, was projecting a 20 point margin or so for Clinton.

The Donald, meanwhile, is projected to win Michigan on the Republican side, with the one remaining question of the night being whether Cruz will overtake Kasich for second place.

Clinton and The Donald are winning handily in Mississippi.

Sanders still holding on 50 to 47 with 62% reporting. This would be a major poll foul up. Sanders won't get many more delegates though, but he really is fighting a great fight. He keeps this up, Clinton will have to give Sanders a bigger and bigger carrot to serenade her nomination at the Convention.

Kasich is holding onto 2nd, and becomes yet another moral victory... something most of Trump's opponents have taken this primary run... and not much in the way of actual victories. Rubio receives almost no delegates in Michigan, not making the 15% cut it appears.

 

[Derec]

Kasich is holding onto 2nd, and becomes yet another moral victory... something most of Trump's opponents have taken this primary run... and not much in the way of actual victories. Rubio receives almost no delegates in Michigan, not making the 15% cut it appears.

That moral victory will be important for next Tuesday, when Ohio votes. It will give him a boost there and that primary is winner take all. If Kasich wins Ohio and Little Marco fails to win Florida then Kasich will become the de facto establishment standard bearer. Not that he would have any chance winning the nomination outright, but if Cruz and he manage to peel off enough delegates from Trump he would look good in a brokered convention, especially since he is doing well in general election polls.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Little Marco ain't doing to well in this primary so far. 5% in Mississippi, 9% in Michigan. And projections have him losing badly in Florida. Its about over for him.

 

[AthenaAwakened]

Retweeted The Associated Press (@AP):
BREAKING: Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic presidential primary in Michigan. @AP race call at 11:30 p.m. EST. ‪#‎Election2016‬ ‪#‎APracecall‬

 

[Derec]

Little Marco ain't doing to well in this primary so far. 5% in Mississippi, 9% in Michigan. And projections have him losing badly in Florida. Its about over for him.

It doesn't cost him anything to make the final stand in Florida and hope it goes better than Custer's. He can drop out just as easily next week. And he seems to be doing a little better in Idaho, third place instead of four, and will probably get a few delegates.

Meanwhile Michigan has been called for Bernie. Given polls that heavily favored Hillary this is a big upset.

 

[MarkW]

AP has apparently called Michigan for Sanders, who has a 50-48 lead (a little over 20,000 votes) with 92% of precincts counted.

 

[MarkW]

Meanwhile, it's an absolutely awful night for Rubio, as he is on track to come in below the threshold for getting delegates in three states if the current results for Idaho hold up. Cruz is, unsurprisingly, winning Idaho with The Donald a distant second.

 

[angelo]

The GOP (Goof Off Party) does not appear capable of stopping der Trumptster. But I think he will be stopped because he is just too Nazi like and his actually followership is not really a very large number of people. There are always people who simply worship rich. They are not the majority of Americans, but seem to be an increasing fraction of people who call themselves Republicans.

Being a fascist is, unfortunately, not sufficient to render someone unpopular. If it was, there wouldn't be fascists. Trump's following is very large indeed; They are not the majority of Americans, but then, they don't actually need to be - particularly when only about 40% of eligible voters even bother to cast a ballot. Your entire electoral system is configured in a way that amplifies the voice of the extremists and fanatics, and candidates like Trump are the inevitable result.

The majority of Americans simply don't care enough to vote; and won't care until they see the real world effects of a Trump presidency - by which time it will be far too late.

That doesn't say much about the election of Obama as well does it! Using the race card works sometimes. And that's what Trumpet is doing.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Hawaii is in. Trump wins 42%, Cruz 33%. And Rubio is only 13% Kasich 11% Polls do not show Rubio winning Florida. By the 15th it will effectively be Cruz vs. Trump.

 

[TV and credit cards]

That appears to be the plan. But if it's a brokered convention, that also means anybody can end up the nominee, even if they're not even running now. That could be what Romney is hoping for.

Maybe not. There are rules. The GOP's Rule #40 states nobody can be nominated in a brokered convention who has not won at least 8 states in the primary.

http://legalinsurrection.com/2016/0...rd-undemocratic-result-and-should-be-changed/

(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.

Of course, some GOP honchos are now opining they may have to change this rule prior to the convention. Which the Trump forces would vigorously oppose I am sure, if Trump sensed it was a move to cheat him out of the nomination.

Can't imagine the party would let a rule of their own odious making with roots dating back to 2012 stand in their way.

The GOP cannot risk either of these crackpots (Cruz or Trump) getting anywhere near the Oval Office. And with an energized base, Trump very well could. They will crawl out of the trailer parks for him. Hillary's not pulling anyone out of the projects.