What Would Happen if Trump Refused to Leave Office?

[Elixir]

We are starting to see how Trump will attempt to remain in office... Federal police force deployed to places that "have violence".. Trump's SS. I don;t expect to see any in my open carry state full of libertarians that have been "prepping" their entire lives for this... with piles of assault rifles, etc..

If it comes to that... how ya'll like the second amendment NOW!?

Are you still in Colorado? AFAICS none of the 2A loudmouths are going to step up to face the government oppression they said they were preparing for.
I am, however starting to regret declining the invitation I got a couple years ago to a 4-day, long range shooting clinic. The promise was to attain lethal accuracy at > ½ mile... didn't have much interest in that at the time.

 

[lpetrich]

What if Trump loses but refuses to leave office? Here's the worst-case scenario | Lawrence Douglas | Opinion | The Guardian

Imagines this scenario. On Election Day, 2020 Nov 3, with 47 states and DC called, Joe Biden gets a popular-vote win but a narrow lead in the electoral vote, 252 - 240, but not enough to win. The three remaining states, MI, PA, WI, have 46 electoral votes, but the results are unsettled there. Trump has a thin lead in all three, but only in in-person votes. The mail-in ballots then take several days to count.

But Trump claims victory and the right-wing media supports him. Biden refuses to concede, and he knows that many of the mail-in ballots come from urban areas, areas that are reliably Democratic, and areas whose voters don't want to expose themselves to COVID-19. An effect long known as "blue shift".

As the count continues, Trump's lead shrinks and disappears, and Biden comes out ahead, in all three states. Trump tweets bloody murder -- the Democrats have rigged the election with fraudulent mail-in votes.

MI, PA, and WI have Republican legislatures and Democratic governors, and they submit competing certificates of the electoral vote.

So on 2021 Jan 6, Congress has a joint session to count the electoral votes, and it has both rival certificates from each of those three states.


The article continued with how something similar happened in 1876, where neither Democrat Samuel Tilden nor Republican Rutherford Hayes got an EC majority, with three states submitting conflicting certificates. The Democrats had the House and the Republicans the Senate, and the two fought over which certificates to recognize. Congress set up a special commission to resolve this issue, but it also had a partisan split. President Ulysses S. Grant considered declaring martial law. This impasse was ended only by a compromise: Federal troops would be removed from the South while the Democrats would concede. That allowed the Redeemer counterrevolution in the Southern states to end Reconstruction and start Jim Crow.

This experience led to the Electoral Count Act of 1887 for resolving conflicting certificates.


Back to this scenario. The House supports the governors and the Senate supports the legislatures, and they cannot resolve this issue either. The Supreme Court refuses to take sides. In response to massive protests, Trump invokes the Insurrection Act, calling in the military to support him.

 

[ideologyhunter]

You left out the part where Malaria, who is getting sick and tired of not being able to take Barron on a Black Sea vacation, slips a massive overdose of adderall in His Majesty's strawberry shake. A state funeral follows, with the eulogy given by a sobbing, gasping Lindsey Graham, whose suitcase is packed and waiting in the limo.

Seriously.....Donald has shown over and over again that no constraints of morality or custom or law are binding on him. Not the idea that America doesn't torture, doesn't put children into detention camps, doesn't have a President who calls people sons of bitches and scum of the earth or entire countries "shit holes". He certainly thinks that article 2 gives him, as he stated so baldly, the right to "do whatever I want as President." He also denies that Congress has oversight over him. There is nothing to prevent him from taking the measures you described, and his stunted personality gives him grandiose delusions that he is never, in this universe, going to be termed a LOSER.

 

[Politesse]

He's dumb as moss on a rock, though. I really can't see him plotting a successful coup. He will contest the results of the election, though, until the day he dies.

 

[Gun Nut]

We are starting to see how Trump will attempt to remain in office... Federal police force deployed to places that "have violence".. Trump's SS. I don;t expect to see any in my open carry state full of libertarians that have been "prepping" their entire lives for this... with piles of assault rifles, etc..

If it comes to that... how ya'll like the second amendment NOW!?

Mr. Gun Moderate, I want machine guns.

Well my stated position here on that has been that you can have a machine gun if you join any armed services, train, serve a standard term, and then be discharged honorably... then you may be licensed to safely possess and use a machine gun. There is not nearly enough required training to possess firearms in general, currently. But that is beside the point...

The second amendment can be limited in reasonable ways just like almost every other amendment. It can not be limited to the point of failing to serve its purpose, though. So it's not about either having machine guns and nuclear weapons OR NOTHING.. But certainly needs to be strong enough to fend off an attack of unidentified people dressed up like every mass shooter ever - that are in your town trying to kidnap your neighbors.

 

[Gun Nut]

We are starting to see how Trump will attempt to remain in office... Federal police force deployed to places that "have violence".. Trump's SS. I don;t expect to see any in my open carry state full of libertarians that have been "prepping" their entire lives for this... with piles of assault rifles, etc..

If it comes to that... how ya'll like the second amendment NOW!?

Are you still in Colorado? AFAICS none of the 2A loudmouths are going to step up to face the government oppression they said they were preparing for.
I am, however starting to regret declining the invitation I got a couple years ago to a 4-day, long range shooting clinic. The promise was to attain lethal accuracy at > ½ mile... didn't have much interest in that at the time.

You may have a point there..

 

[Loren Pechtel]

He's dumb as moss on a rock, though. I really can't see him plotting a successful coup. He will contest the results of the election, though, until the day he dies.

He won't. That doesn't mean his puppetmasters won't.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

We are starting to see how Trump will attempt to remain in office... Federal police force deployed to places that "have violence".. Trump's SS. I don;t expect to see any in my open carry state full of libertarians that have been "prepping" their entire lives for this... with piles of assault rifles, etc..

If it comes to that... how ya'll like the second amendment NOW!?

Mr. Gun Moderate, I want machine guns.

Well my stated position here on that has been that you can have a machine gun if you join any armed services, train, serve a standard term, and then be discharged honorably... then you may be licensed to safely possess and use a machine gun. There is not nearly enough required training to possess firearms in general, currently. But that is beside the point...

The second amendment can be limited in reasonable ways just like almost every other amendment. It can not be limited to the point of failing to serve its purpose, though. So it's not about either having machine guns and nuclear weapons OR NOTHING.. But certainly needs to be strong enough to fend off an attack of unidentified people dressed up like every mass shooter ever - that are in your town trying to kidnap your neighbors.

Congress shall make no law. You are just showing you are not a nut.

 

[Politesse]

He's dumb as moss on a rock, though. I really can't see him plotting a successful coup. He will contest the results of the election, though, until the day he dies.

He won't. That doesn't mean his puppetmasters won't.

They are hardly showing signs of superior intellect themselves. All of his projects have been disasters. It's the one good thing about him.

 

[ideologyhunter]

How tone deaf is he, to be tweeting yet again today his old lies about covid? Shows you how petulant and out of control he is. I'm soooo glad he's this dumb. Limits the spread of Trumpid 19.

 

[Elixir]

Here's a good article, and some things I didn't know.
F'rinstance:

Any conflict over the 2020 election results, including competing returns, would be decided by the next Congress, the one elected in November and seated on January 3, 2021. (Yes, the new Congress is sworn in almost three weeks before the president and three days before the presidential election is certified by Congress.) If Capitol Hill continues to be divided, with Democrats controlling the House and Republicans controlling the Senate, these scenarios come into play. It is unlikely to be an issue, however, if Democrats control both chambers.

There is precedent for this. In 1876, three different Southern states sent two sets of returns and two sets of electors to Congress. The result sparked a national crisis, and Congress created a special electoral commission to resolve the election, which was eventually awarded to Republican Rutherford B. Hayes. Democrats then controlled the House, but Republicans controlled the Senate.

 

[Elixir]

...if it is clear TO TRUMP that Trump lost, he will leave office IN MY OPNION.

FIFY

I am not made of fear the way you are.

I have evidence, you have ad hom insults.
Do you suppose that if I was a big brave boy like you, I would meekly submit to whatever Trump thinks, just like you do?
In fact I believe it takes real abject stupidity or cowardice to believe or pretend to believe that given sufficient margin of defeat, Cheato is simply going to shrug and say "Ok, guess Ill go to prison for the rest of my life... no problem."

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Do you suppose that if I was a big brave boy like you, I would meekly submit to whatever Trump thinks, just like you do?

Thank you for admitting you have no idea what either of us are talking about.

In fact I believe it takes real abject stupidity or cowardice to believe or pretend to believe that given sufficient margin of defeat, Cheato is simply going to shrug and say "Ok, guess Ill go to prison for the rest of my life... no problem."

Neither Clinton nor Bush nor Obama went to prison for their crimes after they left office.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Here's a good article, and some things I didn't know.
F'rinstance:

Any conflict over the 2020 election results, including competing returns, would be decided by the next Congress, the one elected in November and seated on January 3, 2021. (Yes, the new Congress is sworn in almost three weeks before the president and three days before the presidential election is certified by Congress.) If Capitol Hill continues to be divided, with Democrats controlling the House and Republicans controlling the Senate, these scenarios come into play. It is unlikely to be an issue, however, if Democrats control both chambers.

There is precedent for this. In 1876, three different Southern states sent two sets of returns and two sets of electors to Congress. The result sparked a national crisis, and Congress created a special electoral commission to resolve the election, which was eventually awarded to Republican Rutherford B. Hayes. Democrats then controlled the House, but Republicans controlled the Senate.

If there was no election, all Representative terms expire and thus there will be no operating House of Representatives. And those Senators who terms expire, their successors cannot be seated. So that leaves 65 Senators, of which 35 are Democrats. So this may not be a good idea on Trump's part.

 

[Elixir]

Here's a good article, and some things I didn't know.
F'rinstance:

Any conflict over the 2020 election results, including competing returns, would be decided by the next Congress, the one elected in November and seated on January 3, 2021. (Yes, the new Congress is sworn in almost three weeks before the president and three days before the presidential election is certified by Congress.) If Capitol Hill continues to be divided, with Democrats controlling the House and Republicans controlling the Senate, these scenarios come into play. It is unlikely to be an issue, however, if Democrats control both chambers.

There is precedent for this. In 1876, three different Southern states sent two sets of returns and two sets of electors to Congress. The result sparked a national crisis, and Congress created a special electoral commission to resolve the election, which was eventually awarded to Republican Rutherford B. Hayes. Democrats then controlled the House, but Republicans controlled the Senate.

If there was no election, all Representative terms expire and thus there will be no operating House of Representatives. And those Senators who terms expire, their successors cannot be seated. So that leaves 65 Senators, of which 35 are Democrats. So this may not be a good idea on Trump's part.

Right. But Cheato can't cancel elections anyhow. The article doesn't consider cancellation, just disputed returns. As you point out, the remedies provided in the Constitution don't favor Trump; he is fairly cornered into having to quibble, delay and hope SCOTUS intervenes on his behalf. Arguing that the Constitution is unconstitutional probably isn't going to fly, even with this SCOTUS. He will probably resign the day before his term expires so Mikey can pardon him...

 

[Toni]

I know we have talked about this in other threads, but I thought it was time for a focused re-visit given the overt signs emerging lately...
Some here are very dismissive of the chances that Trump would ever do such a thing as to refuse to leave office

HERE is a pretty good take IMO.

It's a chilling thought that in America "the key to the peaceful transfer of power is the conduct of the outgoing leader", but I'm afraid that is indeed the case. And with Trump we have a guy with no character and nothing to lose by attempting insurrection - he knows he's in for disgrace and probable jail time if he becomes a private citizen. So why not put everyone else's lives on the line and at worst, go out in a blaze of glory?

I am reassured by only one thing: In three years, Trump has never even had the guts to fire anyone face to face. He will try to get others to walk over the line for him, but he is not a leader, he is just a boss. Normally that doesn't mean putting his own ass on the line by leading the way in a forcible takeover. So he might come down with a last minute case of bone spurs. Other than that, I think overthrowing the government is exactly what he would like to do. Or rather, what he'd like someone else to do for him. Apparently a lot of respected ex-military personnel think so too; there's a lot of preventative messaging coming from that quarter.

The presidential term ends on Jan 20, 2021, regardless of whether there are elections. So does the VP term. That would leave the Speaker of the House as POTUS. Most likely scenario, that would be Nancy Pelosi. Perhaps, Grassley, if the Dems decide on new leadership.

How do you think that would go?

And of course, the Secret Service and those marines who are always so close at hand would be there to ensure a peaceful transition out of the White House.

Based on the military that I know, they would not miss Trump's sorry ass one little bit.

 

[Gospel]

There are at least 60,000,000 Americans willing to removing him from the White House free of charge.

 

[Elixir]

I know we have talked about this in other threads, but I thought it was time for a focused re-visit given the overt signs emerging lately...
Some here are very dismissive of the chances that Trump would ever do such a thing as to refuse to leave office

HERE is a pretty good take IMO.

It's a chilling thought that in America "the key to the peaceful transfer of power is the conduct of the outgoing leader", but I'm afraid that is indeed the case. And with Trump we have a guy with no character and nothing to lose by attempting insurrection - he knows he's in for disgrace and probable jail time if he becomes a private citizen. So why not put everyone else's lives on the line and at worst, go out in a blaze of glory?

I am reassured by only one thing: In three years, Trump has never even had the guts to fire anyone face to face. He will try to get others to walk over the line for him, but he is not a leader, he is just a boss. Normally that doesn't mean putting his own ass on the line by leading the way in a forcible takeover. So he might come down with a last minute case of bone spurs. Other than that, I think overthrowing the government is exactly what he would like to do. Or rather, what he'd like someone else to do for him. Apparently a lot of respected ex-military personnel think so too; there's a lot of preventative messaging coming from that quarter.

The presidential term ends on Jan 20, 2021, regardless of whether there are elections. So does the VP term. That would leave the Speaker of the House as POTUS. Most likely scenario, that would be Nancy Pelosi. Perhaps, Grassley, if the Dems decide on new leadership.

How do you think that would go?

I think a lot can happen between 11/3/20 and 1/3/21 when the new Congress is seated. Prediction is difficult, especially when it's about the future.
I do NOT think that under any circumstances Trump will have agreed to leave office on inauguration day by the time the new Congress is seated.

And of course, the Secret Service and those marines who are always so close at hand would be there to ensure a peaceful transition out of the White House.
Based on the military that I know, they would not miss Trump's sorry ass one little bit.

If it becomes evident that continued resistance will result in public shaming or the possibility that one precious hair on his empty head might be hurt, then maybe Trump will make a show of leaving willingly.

 

[Gun Nut]

Do you suppose that if I was a big brave boy like you, I would meekly submit to whatever Trump thinks, just like you do?

Thank you for admitting you have no idea what either of us are talking about.

In fact I believe it takes real abject stupidity or cowardice to believe or pretend to believe that given sufficient margin of defeat, Cheato is simply going to shrug and say "Ok, guess Ill go to prison for the rest of my life... no problem."

Neither Clinton nor Bush nor Obama went to prison for their crimes after they left office.

I don't think Trump will see a day of prison either. That said, he is guilty of crimes completely unrelated to how he conducted himself as President... I actually have direct personal experience and knowledge that cannot be legally shared outside of those that were directly involved... but yes, there are several laws broken by him that New York State can prosecute AFTER he is out of office. This is well documented and known publicly. I just can't share the specifics I happen to know.
There is no precedent for this, but it is believed by legal experts that statute of limitations "pause" during the time he is immune from prosecution. So he can't just wait out his indictment. But this is all VERY different than just not liking how other Presidents and this President conducted themselves while in office... ethical violations are not crimes. Using "dirty tricks" is not a crime no matter who did them while in office.

Elixr is right that he HAS to stay in office for as long as possible, because his life is going to be very miserable thereafter. Again, prolly no jail.. maybe (at absolute most) a house arrest.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Why persecute Melania???