Will Biden drop out? Who replaces him?

[Spacetime Inhabitant]

What the Biden campaign can do to offset the perception that Biden is tired, is to continuously show footage of sleepy Don at his NY trial. I imagine they are holding off on this for now for two reasons, both strategic.

what footage? There were no cameras in that courtroom. They could keep showing the artists’ drawings of sleepy Don but not footage.

Correct. There should have been footage but Trump was protected by the normal rules in this particular, yet not subjected to them as regards other court rules such as the gag orders.

 

[LoAmmo]

Welp, it looks like the Blue team is down to one cat. Biden told George Stephanopoulos only “the Lord Almighty” could persuade him to drop out.

Great—someone who’s not all there is dependant on someone who’s not there at all.

 

[southernhybrid]

The so called interview last night was only a chance for Stephanopoulos to try to convince Biden to step down. I was hoping he would ask him questions about his plans for his second term, but Mr. Sohy and I thought it was all about persuading Biden to step down. I do think when George asked what Biden what he would do about all the Democrats in Congress asking him to step down, he should have said something like, "I'll get back to you when that happens", instead of "That's not going to happen". Typical politician. They all seem to be in denial about their own weaknesses.

The problem is that some experienced younger candidates should have challenged his second term over a year ago, instead of creating panic and chaos shortly before the conference, blaming his problems on one bad night. I think Jill Biden is probably the only one who can convince Joe to end his campaign, and apparently, she's not going to do it. She seems to have a lot of trust in her husband's ability to continue to lead. We are in a serious dilemma, but as I've said before, we all need to vote blue no matter who and stop criticizing our own. There's an expression in the nursing profession known as "Nurses eat their own" and that applies to Dems as well. I know it hard to herd the cats, but his is one time when the cats need to put aside their differences and vote against Trump, regardless of what they think of Biden or Harris, or anyone else should he be replaced. Sadly, too many won't for one reason or another.

 

[Shadowy Man]

If it were about his ability to lead they would be asking him to step down now. They are not because it is about his ability to win the election.

 

[Ford]

If it were about his ability to lead they would be asking him to step down now. They are not because it is about his ability to win the election.

The last few years have put the leadership questions to rest, IMO. He was far from my first choice, but has outperformed all expectations and then some.

As far as the interview goes, I like Beau of the Fifth Column's take. It was 30 minutes of prime time television coverage that didn't cost the campaign a dime. They say there's no such thing as bad publicity, he's certainly getting a lot, but this was a good counterpoint, and for the rest of the weekend the focus will remain on him, but he might have shifted the narrative a bit

Meanwhile, Trump is sitting in Mar A Lardo and screaming "why aren't they talking about ME?!?!?"

 

[Shadowy Man]

Meanwhile, Trump is sitting in Mar A Lardo and screaming "why aren't they talking about ME?!?!?"

and they just pushed off his martyrdom by two months so there’s not much to talk about except all his lying.

 

[thebeave]

Welp, it looks like the Blue team is down to one cat. Biden told George Stephanopoulos only “the Lord Almighty” could persuade him to drop out.

Great—someone who’s not all there is dependant on someone who’s not there at all.

Apparently, some people called the White House phone line after the interview saying, "Hello, this is "the Lord Almighty" calling. Can I speak to Joe, please?"

 

[Politesse]

Welp, it looks like the Blue team is down to one cat. Biden told George Stephanopoulos only “the Lord Almighty” could persuade him to drop out.

Great—someone who’s not all there is dependant on someone who’s not there at all.

Yup. It's basically his way of saying "this is about the injury to my ego, not about what's best to do." What I don't understand is why his top donors are so late to the party in realizing it. He's never been anyone but the guy he currently is. This is categorically the wrong time to suddenly realize it, and doubly so to blurt out their feelings to the press. I wish they'd had his measure in 2015 and acted accordingly then, but now is not the time to break ranks. It's just dumb.

 

[LoAmmo]

Maybe it’s just me being a Democrat —who tend to not only think the glass is half empty but that the glass is broken on the floor (and it was our fault)— but… I think Biden’s Stephanopoulos interview might’ve almost been a worst-case scenario.
I’ll explain:

IF he’d repeated his mumbly, slack-jawed, staring-off-into-space debate vibe, it would have removed any lingering doubt in anybody’s mind that it was time to change horses. A disastrous performance under these more ideal circumstances (taped vs. live, no Trump distraction, conducted during the apparent “sweet spot” in his day when he’s sufficiently alert/lucid/focused) would have given the Democrats full cover to more forcefully insist, “It’s time.”

And IF he’d been sharp as a tack, supremely on top of his game, Republicans would yell even louder that “Jacked-up Joe” is an inconsistent Jekyll & Hyde that needs drugs and/or a perfect environment to function effectively, and Democrats would’ve heaved a sigh of relief, permanently exorcised the debate from their minds, and dutifully circled the wagons around their unquestioned guy.

What actually happened, though, was this middling, inconclusive, “draw with himself” in which he neither definitively showed the debate was an anomaly OR it was the “real” Joe Biden. In other words…it extends this weird half-in, half-out limbo in which the Party remains divided against itself at a time it can ill afford to be.

That, to me, represents a worst-case scenario in that both factions of Democrats now have ample evidence of what they need to see in Joe Biden—he’s both “past his sell-by date” and “the only guy who can beat Trump.”

Meanwhile, in the real world, he continues to slide in polls…despite what he told George Stephanopoulos.

 

[abaddon]

If Biden is going to be replaced by another candidate, it needs to happen right away. Every minute spent on arguing this is important time lost to a secondary issue.

My worries are:

1) shifting candidates mid-stream will have worse consequence than "damn the torpedoes full speed ahead!" (Biden's slipping poll numbers don't guarantee better poll numbers for his replacement);

2) it'll result in Dems wanting to go shopping for their favorite candidate ("Buttigieg is good with...", "well Harris says things I like"...) and other shit that doesn't matter the slightest fuck this election cycle.

It doesn't matter at all who the candidate is, ultimately this is about who shouldn't be president (Trump) and not who should be. Dems need to settle on which candidate real fucking fast and not second-guess it.

 

[laughing dog]

If Biden voluntarily leaves the race now due to internal Democrat pressure, then, IMO, baring some Trump meltdown,the GOP will have massive victories at every level. I know I will have serious reservations voting for candidates from the party of whining ninnies.

Instead of wasting valuable time and energy with fruitless infighting, it is time to stand together to work harder for Biden’s reelection. FFS, that is what the GOP is doing for a clearly demented and delusional candidate.

 

[Politesse]

and not second-guess it.

True, but not the Democrat's strong point. And there's good and bad that comes with that, but... as you've said, not the time for it.

 

[Copernicus]

There is no way that Democrats are all going to turn on a dime and select a new candidate quickly. Not even Republicans could do that, and they do all fight with each other to get in line to support whoever ends up being chosen. What has to happen is that Democratic leaders need to convince Biden that he can't be the one to stand against Trump, just as Republican leaders told Nixon the bad news. There will be messy infighting, no matter what happens. Wishful thinking won't change the way politics works. The best advice is to fasten seatbelts and be prepared for a bumpy ride. I still think that Harris is the best choice, if Biden can be convinced to pass the baton to her. That would help to unite Biden supporters (who hold the most convention delegates) to unite with those who are now opposing Biden's candidacy. Any other replacement would likely just result in more painful infighting, IMO. Right now, I think that Biden is toast, especially after the Stephanopoulos interview. Only some Democrats think that he did ok, but he needed to come off that way to independents. I don't think he did.

 

[southernhybrid]

If Biden is going to be replaced by another candidate, it needs to happen right away. Every minute spent on arguing this is important time lost to a secondary issue.

My worries are:

1) shifting candidates mid-stream will have worse consequence than "damn the torpedoes full speed ahead!" (Biden's slipping poll numbers don't guarantee better poll numbers for his replacement);

2) it'll result in Dems wanting to go shopping for their favorite candidate ("Buttigieg is good with...", "well Harris says things I like"...) and other shit that doesn't matter the slightest fuck this election cycle.

It doesn't matter at all who the candidate is, ultimately this is about who shouldn't be president (Trump) and not who should be. Dems need to settle on which candidate real fucking fast and not second-guess it.

That's just it. Democrats won't unite together for one person, regardless of who that person might be. There are times like this, when Democrats probably need to be more like sheep, despite my dislike of that. But, that is how Republicans have won so many elections regardless of how bad their candidate may have been.

I don't think Biden won't step down due to being egotistical. I think the man doesn't see a candidate who can lead the way at this point and the Democrats are proving him right. If they ditch Harris, it will make the Dems look worse and while I'll vote for anyone who runs against Trump, even some of my Black female friends don't like Harris. They might hold. their nose and vote for her, but will the white males without college degrees who might be persuaded to vote for someone like Governor Beshaer, who was able to win in a conservative state also vote for someone like Harris? I doubt it. They might be persuaded to vote for an old white man like Biden, but not a minority woman who some people say has a voice that sounds like chalk across a blackboard. No, I didn't make that claim, but I've heard it often.

What about the low news information folks? They might not even know about all of this criticism of Biden. We who post on this site are the exceptions. My own son, who always votes for Democrats, rarely keeps up with the news, and he's a smart, college educated person. Do you think the people who never watch or read the news, unless its Fox or Newsmax are going to vote for Harris, even if they don't like Trump? The guy across the street from me is a double hater, who voted for Trump twice. I can't imagine him voting for Harris or anyone perceived as progressive and every vote in my state is important, being a purple state. He will probably either vote third party or sit out the election. He's a good person, almost 80 years old, but too stubborn to vote for just anyone against Trump. Dems are doing this to themselves. We are fucked. If Biden gives in to the demands, I simply don't see the party uniting behind one person. That one person should be Harris, since she's the VP, but too many people don't like her, so I don't see her winning. Hope I'm wrong, but at this point the Dems might be better off uniting behind one old man, in order to help keep a much worse old man from damaging the country.

 

[southernhybrid]

There is no way that Democrats are all going to turn on a dime and select a new candidate quickly. Not even Republicans could do that, and they do all fight with each other to get in line to support whoever ends up being chosen. What has to happen is that Democratic leaders need to convince Biden that he can't be the one to stand against Trump, just as Republican leaders told Nixon the bad news. There will be messy infighting, no matter what happens. Wishful thinking won't change the way politics works. The best advice is to fasten seatbelts and be prepared for a bumpy ride. I still think that Harris is the best choice, if Biden can be convinced to pass the baton to her. That would help to unite Biden supporters (who hold the most convention delegates) to unite with those who are now opposing Biden's candidacy. Any other replacement would likely just result in more painful infighting, IMO. Right now, I think that Biden is toast, especially after the Stephanopoulos interview. Only some Democrats think that he did ok, but he needed to come off that way to independents.

I appreciate your optimism and hope that you are correct, but knowing how so many people despise Harris, makes me pessimistic about her as a candidate for president at this time. We can't throw her away, but her polling is just about the same as Biden, sometimes a few points better and sometimes worse. I can only hope I'm wrong. Regardless, Democrats need to unite for a change and even if Biden is replaced, it should be done quietly, not by the media sounding constant alarms, which is only helping the Trump cult, imo. I'm tired of seeing all the headlines from WaPo, the NYTImes, the AJC etc. screeching about Biden's need to step down. What good is that doing, other than giving Trump ammunition?

 

[Copernicus]

It's impossible to say how a Harris candidacy would turn out by November. Republicans haven't been contemplating a run against her and are just now starting to focus on shifting the target of their smear campaign. She starts out with low expectations, so that gives her an opportunity to change perceptions. The problem with Biden is that he won't be getting younger, and it is extremely unlikely that he can keep up a grueling campaign from now until November. I don't see how he can change public perceptions that he is too old and infirm to last through a second term, and every stumble will generate headlines. Better to have him focus on running the government and let someone with more energy take over the campaign.

 

[bilby]

Nothing that happened in June or July will matter one whit to possible Biden voters (or possible Trump voters, for that matter) in November.

Changing candidates would likely significantly suppress the vote for the party that made that change.

It would be a daft thing for either party to change candidates now, unless their guy drops dead.

Nobody will be talking about Biden's "debate" performance in November; They will be talking about whatever happens in October. Probably only about what happens in the second half of October.

A week is a long time in politics. four months is an eternity. Nobody cares what happened four months ago.

 

[Politesse]

It's impossible to say how a Harris candidacy would turn out by November. Republicans haven't been contemplating a run against her and are just now starting to focus on shifting the target of their smear campaign. She starts out with low expectations, so that gives her an opportunity to change perceptions. The problem with Biden is that he won't be getting younger, and it is extremely unlikely that he can keep up a grueling campaign from now until November. I don't see how he can change public perceptions that he is too old and infirm to last through a second term, and every stumble will generate headlines. Better to have him focus on running the government and let someone with more energy take over the campaign.

I tend to agree. If she was most certainly the nominee, she'd be stronger candidate at that point than Biden is now. But does the Party want her at all, enough to place that kind of trust in her candidacy?

 

[Toni]

Linking this from Twitter ( I know I know) but it’s a must view/listen to:

 

[TSwizzle]

Linking this from Twitter ( I know I know) but it’s a must view/listen to:

Actually it’s not.

You’re welcome