Will WWIII Break Out?

[southernhybrid]

Apparently, a lot of people in Europe fear the start of a nuclear war, so I'm going to try and use this link as one of my 10 "gifted" articles this month. I grew up during the Cold War, the insane duck and cover alarms we had to do in school, as if hiding under our desks would shield us from a nuclear bomb or any bomb for that matter. Sometimes they took us to the basement to hide and I still remember my father telling me that he worried I would never reach adulthood due to a nuclear war. Are these Europeans over reacting or are we once again close to a nuclear war, if Putin is as unhinged as he appears?

nytimes.com/2022/03/12/world/europe/ukraine-war-europe-nuclear-anxiety.html?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACEIPuomT1JKd6J17Vw1cRCfTTMQmqxCdw_PIxftm3iWka3DODm8YiPsSGYyMvErQf617apwu3C6SRdlMdaAmXrl_0_VYJ0EoTRSjppaNgtEMJTU0pJ6iGGMq2paHFZYJzQjXV

Across a footbridge from a busy shopping outlet surrounded by verdant fields in northern Italy, workers in a nondescript warehouse are preparing for a nuclear attack, its radioactive fallout and the end of the world as we know it.
“We have found ourselves in the midst of this giant cyclone of demand,” said Giulio Cavicchioli, as he showed off an underground air filtration system that “cleans” radioactive particles, nerve gas and other biological agents and played a video tour of a nuclear shelter that was “ready to use.” His company, Minus Energie, has gone from working on 50 bunkers in the past 22 years to fielding 500 inquiries in the past two weeks.
“It’s a hysteria for construction of bunkers,” he said, driven by the fear of Russian nuclear warheads reaching across Europe. “It’s much scarier now.”
In the days since President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia launched his war on Ukraine, and put his nuclear forces into “special combat readiness,” the intensifying violence and the legacy of two world wars has revived fears in Europe of nuclear calamity for the first time in decades.

 

[steve_bank]

Right now it looks like the trigger point will be any form of attack on Poland. One missile landing in Poland could start the ball rolling.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Right now it looks like the trigger point will be any form of attack on Poland. One missile landing in Poland could start the ball rolling.

Very dangerous times.

 

[SLD]

Right now it looks like the trigger point will be any form of attack on Poland. One missile landing in Poland could start the ball rolling.

And it looks like the Russians can’t target worth shit.

Of course, they’ll quickly apologize, but they might not in time. Poland may strike back at missile launching sites even before diplomatic exchanges happen. Recall, they’ll track those missiles trajectories quickly and realize they’re under attack and launch a counter strike possibly before they even land. NATO has that capability. WWIII could break out quicker than the diplomats could stop it.

But I suspect Russia will be very careful not to come any closer to NATO borders. This weekend’s strikes were twelve miles from the border and were fired from planes operating over the Sea of Azov. They’ve done their damage and thus not likely to strike again for a while. They don’t have the forces to push westward towards Lviv. And they are so bogged down in the East it’s pathetic. Over two weeks of fighting and they still haven’t taken a single major city. Kharkiv and Mariupol are still holding out. They might be “inching” forward as the headlines proclaim, but they can’t afford to inch forward. Time is not on their side. It never is for the invader.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

My guess is that with WWII in recent memory, efforts will be made to avoid this happening.*

*could be completely wrong

That's what they said in 1938.

It's a similar situation now; NATO could kick Russia's arse today, as their clear lack of competence and capability is there for all to see.

But.

That won't last; Amongst the 'all' who see it are Putin, and he is going to demand improvement. Heads will (maybe literally) roll; It's gonna take a while, but Russia's armed forces will eventually be dragged up to a standard sufficient to go toe-to-toe with NATO. If Putin is given time to get them there.

Just like in 1938, when WWI was fresh in European minds, and appeasement seemed a better option than war, there's a genuine fear that provoking the aggressor might lead to the use of WMDs on cities.

In 1938, it was gas - known to be devastating from the horrors of its use in the last world war.

Well gas and all the other modern warfare toys. The Great War was when mankind utterly failed in defending itself or using properly it's technology. In the good ole days, new tech was at least used by someone to great effect. In the Great War, it went stalemate almost immediately, and from there... no where. Millions died over yards of land. At least the militaries moved in WWII.

Today, it's nuclear bombs - also known to be devastating from their use in the last world war.

Ultimately, there came a point when Britain and France couldn't avoid war any longer, despite the risk of mustard gas or phosgene being used against Paris or London. And despite Hitler's psychopathy, megalomania, and looming defeat, he never deployed chemical weapons against enemy nations - neither tactically, nor strategically - because deterrence works.

I seriously doubt that Putin would use nuclear weapons against NATO forces or nations. He knows that an hour and a half later, his empire, and his precious hide, will be a sea of radioactive glass.

And certainly, safe money is on that bet. BUT, there is clearly uncertainty.

But the question remains where Russia goes post any NATO action. Putin can't invade anyone else. The Russian army clearly sucks as indicated by high profile military are getting killed at the front lines. But he has missiles and shells that can do a lot of damage in the air. NATO goes to land humanitarian supplies in Ukraine and it gets shot down, what next? No-Fly Zone. Then we shootdown a Russian plane. What next?

I'm certain there are opinions in DC, but no one is likely certain. I hope our intel of what is happening in the Kremlin is decent.

Even at the very end, Hitler didn't order the use of gas against allied forces. Or if he did, the order was ignored by his Generals as the insane and suicidal escalation it would have been.

I don't see a nuclear war as likely at all; But a big conventional war is a real probability - and the later we get started, the bigger it's going to be.

I doubt the size is going to grow with time. Russia has X capabilities. They lack an invasion force to go anywhere but into Ukraine and even that is limited. Most of the World has gone economic scorched Earth on Russia, and only one country has the capacity to override that... China. It is really up to China where this goes from here. If China stands to the side and makes Russia have to deal with their own consequences (I think the best possible hope), then Russia is in huge trouble. Certainly those oil and gas stores to the North of China look inviting and weakened and defeated Russia makes taking that much easier.

 

[steve_bank]

Right now it looks like the trigger point will be any form of attack on Poland. One missile landing in Poland could start the ball rolling.

Very dangerous times.

More than the Cold War and the Cuban criisi. Kruschev and JFK were both rational and WWII combat vets. Kruschev I believe was at Satingrad. They both understood the consequencess.

 

[steve_bank]

I think it is not the ability of Russia to actually invade Poland or any border NATO state.

If NATO ad Russia start shooting global economies may crash. Economies are now hopelessly interwoven. Oil prices stared risng the day Russia stared massing troops before the invasion.

China tries to sit on a fence, but if war stars they will suffer economically.

It is hard to assume assuming Putin has some intelligence to say in power. Coud he have just completly underestimated the scale of the response and expected two or three day war? He is already installing peo Russia mayors.

I am starting to think escalation with NATO is inevitable. Putin has no out and with all his home pro panda which people believe, he can't just give up.

In Afghanistan where it was always obvious there was no political or military solution Biden took the politicl hit and pulled us out.

Historically rather than admit defeat and loose support, dictators attack and create wars. Mussolini, Hitler, and Tojo. All three stated wars they could not win given the reources of the adversaries.

Wars stoke patriotism, as GWB did with invading Iraq. Neo cons thought it would be like liberating Franc, being welcomed with open arms.

Wen General Shinseki complained he did not have enough troops fpr post war occupation he was sacked.

 

[SLD]

I think it is not the ability of Russia to actually invade Poland or any border NATO state.

If NATO ad Russia start shooting global economies may crash. Economies are now hopelessly interwoven. Oil prices stared risng the day Russia stared massing troops before the invasion.

China tries to sit on a fence, but if war stars they will suffer economically.

It is hard to assume assuming Putin has some intelligence to say in power. Coud he have just completly underestimated the scale of the response and expected two or three day war? He is already installing peo Russia mayors.

I am starting to think escalation with NATO is inevitable. Putin has no out and with all his home pro panda which people believe, he can't just give up.

In Afghanistan where it was always obvious there was no political or military solution Biden took the politicl hit and pulled us out.

Historically rather than admit defeat and loose support, dictators attack and create wars. Mussolini, Hitler, and Tojo. All three stated wars they could not win given the reources of the adversaries.

Wars stoke patriotism, as GWB did with invading Iraq. Neo cons thought it would be like liberating Franc, being welcomed with open arms. The

Wen General Shinseki complained he did not have enough troops fpr post war occupation he was sacked.

The comparison with Iraq is very apt. We went in with about the same troop to population ratio as Pitin just did - perhaps that was his thinking. Many Iraqis did welcome the fall of Saddam. He wasn’t much loved even in the Sunni areas and their army gave up quite quickly. They wanted no part of fighting for the corrupt dictator. The Shias were more than glad to see his ass thrown out.

Contrast that with Ukraine. The bastards are fighting back. They’re also being heavily supplied by a friendly world power. They have far greater equipment than Iraqi’s and Russia failed to adequately prepare their troops for war. They denied they would do this for months. Soldiers were told they were going on a training exercise. The Russian people were not prepared for this. The war in Iraq was no surprise. In fact, Saddam was offered the opportunity to acce exile Just before, so there was at least some end game.

Where the US failed was not understanding the extent that Iraq was not really a country. Shia and Sunni conflict, still going on, resulted in open warfare between the two, and the US never had enough troops to really stop an insurgency from popping up. Russia cannot possibly occupy all of Ukraine unless it calls up its entire reserves and goes all out into this. But to do that risks such a backlash on the home front that they dare not try it. The army itself may revolt. They don’t want to fight in Ukraine.

 

[Elixir]

I think it is not the ability of Russia to actually invade Poland or any border NATO state.

If NATO ad Russia start shooting global economies may crash. Economies are now hopelessly interwoven. Oil prices stared risng the day Russia stared massing troops before the invasion.

China tries to sit on a fence, but if war stars they will suffer economically.

It is hard to assume assuming Putin has some intelligence to say in power. Coud he have just completly underestimated the scale of the response and expected two or three day war? He is already installing peo Russia mayors.

I am starting to think escalation with NATO is inevitable. Putin has no out and with all his home pro panda which people believe, he can't just give up.

In Afghanistan where it was always obvious there was no political or military solution Biden took the politicl hit and pulled us out.

Historically rather than admit defeat and loose support, dictators attack and create wars. Mussolini, Hitler, and Tojo. All three stated wars they could not win given the reources of the adversaries.

Wars stoke patriotism, as GWB did with invading Iraq. Neo cons thought it would be like liberating Franc, being welcomed with open arms. The

Wen General Shinseki complained he did not have enough troops fpr post war occupation he was sacked.

The comparison with Iraq is very apt. We went in with about the same troop to population ratio as Pitin just did - perhaps that was his thinking. Many Iraqis did welcome the fall of Saddam. He wasn’t much loved even in the Sunni areas and their army gave up quite quickly. They wanted no part of fighting for the corrupt dictator. The Shias were more than glad to see his ass thrown out.

Contrast that with Ukraine. The bastards are fighting back. They’re also being heavily supplied by a friendly world power. They have far greater equipment than Iraqi’s and Russia failed to adequately prepare their troops for war. They denied they would do this for months. Soldiers were told they were going on a training exercise. The Russian people were not prepared for this. The war in Iraq was no surprise. In fact, Saddam was offered the opportunity to acce exile Just before, so there was at least some end game.

Where the US failed was not understanding the extent that Iraq was not really a country. Shia and Sunni conflict, still going on, resulted in open warfare between the two, and the US never had enough troops to really stop an insurgency from popping up. Russia cannot possibly occupy all of Ukraine unless it calls up its entire reserves and goes all out into this. But to do that risks such a backlash on the home front that they dare not try it. The army itself may revolt. They don’t want to fight in Ukraine.

Poor Pootey.
All that ^ is why he has no choice now but to keep escalating. It’s also why “the west” should summon the resolve to put him back in his place NOW. If he is going to start a nuclear war, he will do it regardless.

 

[SLD]

I think it is not the ability of Russia to actually invade Poland or any border NATO state.

If NATO ad Russia start shooting global economies may crash. Economies are now hopelessly interwoven. Oil prices stared risng the day Russia stared massing troops before the invasion.

China tries to sit on a fence, but if war stars they will suffer economically.

It is hard to assume assuming Putin has some intelligence to say in power. Coud he have just completly underestimated the scale of the response and expected two or three day war? He is already installing peo Russia mayors.

I am starting to think escalation with NATO is inevitable. Putin has no out and with all his home pro panda which people believe, he can't just give up.

In Afghanistan where it was always obvious there was no political or military solution Biden took the politicl hit and pulled us out.

Historically rather than admit defeat and loose support, dictators attack and create wars. Mussolini, Hitler, and Tojo. All three stated wars they could not win given the reources of the adversaries.

Wars stoke patriotism, as GWB did with invading Iraq. Neo cons thought it would be like liberating Franc, being welcomed with open arms. The

Wen General Shinseki complained he did not have enough troops fpr post war occupation he was sacked.

The comparison with Iraq is very apt. We went in with about the same troop to population ratio as Pitin just did - perhaps that was his thinking. Many Iraqis did welcome the fall of Saddam. He wasn’t much loved even in the Sunni areas and their army gave up quite quickly. They wanted no part of fighting for the corrupt dictator. The Shias were more than glad to see his ass thrown out.

Contrast that with Ukraine. The bastards are fighting back. They’re also being heavily supplied by a friendly world power. They have far greater equipment than Iraqi’s and Russia failed to adequately prepare their troops for war. They denied they would do this for months. Soldiers were told they were going on a training exercise. The Russian people were not prepared for this. The war in Iraq was no surprise. In fact, Saddam was offered the opportunity to acce exile Just before, so there was at least some end game.

Where the US failed was not understanding the extent that Iraq was not really a country. Shia and Sunni conflict, still going on, resulted in open warfare between the two, and the US never had enough troops to really stop an insurgency from popping up. Russia cannot possibly occupy all of Ukraine unless it calls up its entire reserves and goes all out into this. But to do that risks such a backlash on the home front that they dare not try it. The army itself may revolt. They don’t want to fight in Ukraine.

Poor Pootey.
All that ^ is why he has no choice now but to keep escalating. It’s also why “the west” should summon the resolve to put him back in his place NOW. If he is going to start a nuclear war, he will do it regardless.

Yeah, we have to be ready for a variety of contingencies. I see Russia possibly collapsing, maybe shortly after it defaults which happens on Wednesday. I hope so. I may be too optimistic.

The problem with Putin’s escalation strategy is that it weakens him overall. He won’t be able to stop discontent in Moscow or St. Petersburg if he doesn’t have the ability to make massive arrests. he can’t count on troops putting down internal threats if they’re all engaged in Ukraine. Plus he doesn’t likely trust the military anyways. Likely they are mad at him for putting them in this fiasco. Russian troops may balk at further escalation.

Plus, the more he gets involved in a bloody war there, the more tanks, missiles, etc. he loses that he may need for further strategic threats. Overall, he’s clearly waaay overstretched. He can’t project power outside anymore as result. His military’s incompetence has demonstrated that Russia is a paper bear. He has to fear uprisings again in Chechnya all of a sudden. He could lose an important ally in Syria if he can no longer prop up that regime.

There’s a whole bunch of dominoes that are going to fall here - one way or the other. I see this ending with Putin’s downfall. The longer Ukraine holds out, the quicker it will come, but even if Ukraine is eventually defeated in some way, Putin’s victory will be so pyrrhic that he is out in a year or two.

 

[Elixir]

I occasionally wonder, idly, whether the Theory of Everything will precipitate from human ingenuity and cleverness before human ingenuity and cleverness destroys itself, or whatever mind was hatching it.

Right now we are so fucking close we can taste it, something that demands that Reality Itself is Mathematically constrained and describable.

But we are so close to an apocalypse too. Which will happen first? Will whatever minds metastasize this truth before the first book of meat and flesh that prints it be burned in nuclear fire?

The suspense is killing me...

Don't hold your breath.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I think it is not the ability of Russia to actually invade Poland or any border NATO state.

This. Russia is getting seriously bogged down against a third-rate opponent. They would promptly get handed their asses if they tried to play against the varsity and they certainly should know it.

 

[Jarhyn]

I occasionally wonder, idly, whether the Theory of Everything will precipitate from human ingenuity and cleverness before human ingenuity and cleverness destroys itself, or whatever mind was hatching it.

Right now we are so fucking close we can taste it, something that demands that Reality Itself is Mathematically constrained and describable.

But we are so close to an apocalypse too. Which will happen first? Will whatever minds metastasize this truth before the first book of meat and flesh that prints it be burned in nuclear fire?

The suspense is killing me...

Don't hold your breath.

I can hold my breath for a surprisingly long period of time.

 

[bilby]

I think it is not the ability of Russia to actually invade Poland or any border NATO state.

This. Russia is getting seriously bogged down against a third-rate opponent. They would promptly get handed their asses if they tried to play against the varsity and they certainly should know it.

Sure. But Russia starts every war as a disorganised mess with little ability to stand up to any kind of resistance.

The longer it goes on, the more likely they are to finally get their shit together.

They need to lose (or succumb to another revolution) while they're still shit, or they will become a genuine threat.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I think it is not the ability of Russia to actually invade Poland or any border NATO state.

This. Russia is getting seriously bogged down against a third-rate opponent. They would promptly get handed their asses if they tried to play against the varsity and they certainly should know it.

Agreed. It's been shocking to see how effective the Ukranian anti-tank weapons and strategy have been. The Javelin's have been very effective (keep them coming in!). Who would have thought that old, slow, Turkish drones would so effective? Finland and Sweden are considering joining NATO:

MSN

Might be a good time for them to consider.

 

[SLD]

I think it is not the ability of Russia to actually invade Poland or any border NATO state.

This. Russia is getting seriously bogged down against a third-rate opponent. They would promptly get handed their asses if they tried to play against the varsity and they certainly should know it.

Agreed. It's been shocking to see how effective the Ukranian anti-tank weapons and strategy have been. The Javelin's have been very effective (keep them coming in!). Who would have thought that old, slow, Turkish drones would so effective? Finland and Sweden are considering joining NATO:

MSN

Might be a good time for them to consider.

Yeah, and at this point, Russia’s threats re such aren’t likely to carry much weight. Russia will implode soon anyways.

 

[steve_bank]

At this point I don't think Ukraine is 3rd rate.

In the run p to WWII Hitler primed the German population with propaganda.

Since his coming to power Putin has calmed NATO was an existential threat to Russia always on the verge of invading Rudsia. From the reporting from Russia and independent polls a large segment of Russians believe the propaganda.

Putin has them primed for war. His blunders may be overstmating the caapacity of his army to face a determined adversary, and the global response.

Stalin made a deal with Hitler for part of Poland and Finland/ Putin has made threats against Finland if they joined NATO. Without a credible NATO who knows how far Putin will go. He may see Finland as a part of Russia.

From reporting on both China and Russia if you are too young to member, this is what the Cold War was about. Russia and China today in a political sense are very much reflection of Orwell;s 1984. Absolute media control, control the thinking of the people.

Un the 80s I felt good about my small contribution working on weapons systems. Opposing communism was the right thing to do. Today it s not explicit global communism, but it is the same threat from both China and Russia.


If we want to limit the conflict and avoid a WWIII NATO should mobilize now.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Don't forget one of the precipitating factors to start WW1 was assassination, i.e. an important individual was killed and while there were obviously many other factors, this added to the pile. In the case of today in Europe, there are also a lot of factors and I am seeing some risky behavior by particular individuals that could ignite something. American citizens being killed in Ukraine or imprisoned is one thing, but important politicians from Poland, Slovenia, and Czech republic going to Kyiv presents a risk of death to any of those people which could then escalate an entanglement of one of their countries into the war further.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Seems the Russian military might have had an easier go of it had they attacked during the pro-Putin, anti-NATO Trump administration. Trump would have just sat there watching it on TV until congress got their bipartisan shit together. Even then he might have slowed any US response congress would have approved.
I wonder why Putin waited? Unless he seen Trump as too unpredictable, likely to look to the conflict for opportunities to make himself look good politically without foresight. If so, this would be a tell that Putin is bluffing in regards attacking a NATO country or using nukes. He wanted to wait for stability in the US government.
I think Biden is showing a timidity in his military dealing with Russia. I think we could press the fight. Attempt to put an end to this soon. The Russian military doesn't seem to be particularly jazzed about the fight now. How would they feel seeing a well trained and confident US military treating them like so many killer tomatoes?

I'm getting the impression sanctions are going to hit harder and faster than expected. I've noticed a couple crybaby moneygrubber articles about "economic contagion". Here too, I hope the press is maintained until Putin is replaced with a human being. Maybe even press Russia to get rid of its nukes.

With the Russian military looking so much more pitiful than I had expected and the economic sanctions, I hope this will all be over within a month. And I hope we do not go back to business as usual. This looks like it could be an opportunity to finally erase the "Evil Empire" moniker from Mother Russia. It would surely wipe the smirk off Xi Jinping's face.

 

[Trausti]

I think Biden is showing a timidity in his military dealing with Russia. I think we could press the fight. Attempt to put an end to this soon. The Russian military doesn't seem to be particularly jazzed about the fight now. How would they feel seeing a well trained and confident US military treating them like so many killer tomatoes?

This push by some to make a regional conflict into a global one is madness. Watch out what you ask for, you just might get it.