Will WWIII Break Out?

[TomC]

There’s a whole bunch of dominoes that are going to fall here - one way or the other. I see this ending with Putin’s downfall. The longer Ukraine holds out, the quicker it will come, but even if Ukraine is eventually defeated in some way, Putin’s victory will be so pyrrhic that he is out in a year or two.

I hope that's true.
But the fact remains, Putin still has assests. Including here in the USA. From Trump to Tucker Carlson to Mitch McConnell.

Notice what Putin's assests in the USA have in common.
Tom

 

[SLD]

There’s a whole bunch of dominoes that are going to fall here - one way or the other. I see this ending with Putin’s downfall. The longer Ukraine holds out, the quicker it will come, but even if Ukraine is eventually defeated in some way, Putin’s victory will be so pyrrhic that he is out in a year or two.

I hope that's true.
But the fact remains, Putin still has assests. Including here in the USA. From Trump to Tucker Carlson to Mitch McConnell.

Notice what Putin's assests in the USA have in common.
Tom

Fucker Carlson lost all credibility the other day. I bet his sponsors start to pull back. As for the other Republicans, I suspect that when Zelensky addresses Congress tomorrow, their will be overwhelming support for further military aid to Ukraine, including the MiGs. I suspect they will get some serious anti air defense systems and not just stingers, but high altitude stuff. They may get THAAD, but that may take too long to deploy, so not sure.

The key is logistics, and if we can keep Ukraine well supplied, they can hold these bastards off.

 

[TomC]

Fucker Carlson lost all credibility the other day.

I think you're kidding yourself.
Carlson, Trump, and McConnell are all still front runners here.
Tom

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I think it is not the ability of Russia to actually invade Poland or any border NATO state.

This. Russia is getting seriously bogged down against a third-rate opponent. They would promptly get handed their asses if they tried to play against the varsity and they certainly should know it.

Agreed. It's been shocking to see how effective the Ukranian anti-tank weapons and strategy have been. The Javelin's have been very effective (keep them coming in!). Who would have thought that old, slow, Turkish drones would so effective? Finland and Sweden are considering joining NATO:

MSN

Might be a good time for them to consider.

Drones are a problem for everyone. Being slow is actually an advantage, the problem becomes sorting out low-flying aircraft from vehicles. Clancy saw this almost 30 years ago in Debt of Honor--the helicopter sneaks up on the AWACS by flying just above a bullet train. An AWACS can perfectly well burn through the stealth long before it's close enough to be a threat--but the crew thinks it's harmless and doesn't call the fighters.

 

[steve_bank]

Thank the god of your choice that Trump did not get elected.

 

[TomC]

Thank the god of your choice that Trump did not get elected.

This is the USA.
We do not elect POTUS here.

Trump has never been elected anywhere. We Americans aren't big on democracy. We've got a "better" system than democracy.
Tom

 

[Jayjay]

One of the surprises of this war seems to be the unusual effectiveness of cheap-ass Turkish drones. If you can get 40 cheap drones at the price of one American-made Predator drone, it might very well be a better investment. And manned aircraft are even more expensive.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I think Biden is showing a timidity in his military dealing with Russia. I think we could press the fight. Attempt to put an end to this soon. The Russian military doesn't seem to be particularly jazzed about the fight now. How would they feel seeing a well trained and confident US military treating them like so many killer tomatoes?

This push by some to make a regional conflict into a global one is madness. Watch out what you ask for, you just might get it.

Global? Russia can't even take a large city of a next door neighbor. We can end this by calling Putin's bluff. Though it pains me to see the devastation and the mothers and babies in harms way, perhaps we should wait another week or so. The Ukrainians may have this well in hand by then. We won't have to worry about Putin's bluff. Russia has half their forces committed to this. That is unsustainable.

 

[Trausti]

I think Biden is showing a timidity in his military dealing with Russia. I think we could press the fight. Attempt to put an end to this soon. The Russian military doesn't seem to be particularly jazzed about the fight now. How would they feel seeing a well trained and confident US military treating them like so many killer tomatoes?

This push by some to make a regional conflict into a global one is madness. Watch out what you ask for, you just might get it.

Global? Russia can't even take a large city of a next door neighbor. We can end this by calling Putin's bluff. Though it pains me to see the devastation and the mothers and babies in harms way, perhaps we should wait another week or so. The Ukrainians may have this well in hand by then. We won't have to worry about Putin's bluff. Russia has half their forces committed to this. That is unsustainable.

Let’s do our best to keep this in Ukraine and not ripple beyond, as unintended consequences tend to do.

 

[steve_bank]

Thank the god of your choice that Trump did not get elected.

This is the USA.
We do not elect POTUS here.

Trump has never been elected anywhere. We Americans aren't big on democracy. We've got a "better" system than democracy.
Tom

Yabba Dabba Do!!!

 

[Gun Nut]

Poland supplies MiG-29’s to Ukraine

Ignore this noise. It was polish ingenious plan to replace that useless junk with F-16s

Hey! Was worried about you. Hadn’t heard from you and thought Putin was blocking IIDB.

so what do you think of bombing maternity hospitals?View attachment 37667View attachment 37668

Real or fake news?

is this an invasion? War? What?

CNN did a short presentation on exactly how they authenticate media they receive and the story around it. They use Google Earth Street View and forensic confirmation of geolocation in the media files to confirm locations, and forensic inspection of the media itself for artifacts that might indicate modification / deep fake.
It was interesting.

 

[Gun Nut]

I think it is not the ability of Russia to actually invade Poland or any border NATO state.

This. Russia is getting seriously bogged down against a third-rate opponent. They would promptly get handed their asses if they tried to play against the varsity and they certainly should know it.

Agreed. It's been shocking to see how effective the Ukranian anti-tank weapons and strategy have been. The Javelin's have been very effective (keep them coming in!). Who would have thought that old, slow, Turkish drones would so effective? Finland and Sweden are considering joining NATO:

MSN

Might be a good time for them to consider.

Someone should write the narrative describing why these countries might "actually belong to Russia after all".. in the style of Putin's speech about how Ukraine was really still Russia... and then call it "Intelligence" and leak it. Hey, even if fake, "Life follows Art" all the time... those countries might should act accordingly in light of the possible narrative.

 

[Elixir]

Someone should write the narrative describing why these countries might "actually belong to Russia after all".

I've been contemplating that, but rather as how Russia actually belongs to Ukraine. There's plenty of history to back up that claim and it goes way further back than the conditions Pootey cites as cause to believe the opposite.

 

[Keith&Co.]

Someone should write the narrative describing why these countries might "actually belong to Russia after all".

I've been contemplating that, but rather as how Russia actually belongs to Ukraine. There's plenty of history to back up that claim and it goes way further back than the conditions Pootey cites as cause to believe the opposite.

So, we get a copy of Google Earth. Mark every square acre with a value of 0. Then give the country that currently owns it 10 points on that square. Every country, nation, empire or tribe that has ever owned it gets one point on that square.

Someone should write the narrative describing why these countries might "actually belong to Russia after all".

I've been contemplating that, but rather as how Russia actually belongs to Ukraine. There's plenty of history to back up that claim and it goes way further back than the conditions Pootey cites as cause to believe the opposite.

When i was stationed in the UK and the personal computer market was really taking off, i found a magazine with a map on the back cover. it listed all the computer companies that had sprung up in the last few years, and then failed.
And charted their inheritors. If you bought a computers from A, A had been bought out by B, so accessories came from them. But if you bought a C computer, company D was your new source for software, while E had absorbed their warranty obligations. F now belonged to A, G had been H but now it was B, except for the parts that F had taken to A....

A full history of every acre of Earth could probably be generated in a similar manner. List each acre and list each owner, and who inherited or wrested control from each extinct country, empire, tribe, or zip code... 10 points for current owner, for this year, 1 point per year of ownership/control/influence going back a few thousand years, Might be an interesting map drawn based on that.
But then, it's all or nothing. If you want to push your claim on X because of history, then everyone else gets to push THEIR claims on your lands for the same reason.

 

[TomC]

Someone should write the narrative describing why these countries might "actually belong to Russia after all".

I've been contemplating that, but rather as how Russia actually belongs to Ukraine. There's plenty of history to back up that claim and it goes way further back than the conditions Pootey cites as cause to believe the opposite.

History backs up

British claims to the U.S. east coast.
Mexican claims to Texas.
Iroquois claims to Ohio.
Muslim claims to Jerusalem.
Roman claims to Jerusalem.

Really, the list of historical claims is endless.
Historical claims don't carry much weight with me.
Tom

ETA ~Roman and Muslim claims to Jerusalem are more recent and stronger than Jewish claims.~

 

[bilby]

Someone should write the narrative describing why these countries might "actually belong to Russia after all".

I've been contemplating that, but rather as how Russia actually belongs to Ukraine. There's plenty of history to back up that claim and it goes way further back than the conditions Pootey cites as cause to believe the opposite.

History backs up

British claims to the U.S. east coast.
Mexican claims to Texas.
Iroquois claims to Ohio.
Muslim claims to Jerusalem.
Roman claims to Jerusalem.

Really, the list of historical claims is endless.
Historical claims don't carry much weight with me.
Tom

ETA ~Roman and Muslim claims to Jerusalem are more recent and stronger than Jewish claims.~

Sorry, but the British claim to the US East Coast is trumped by the Spanish claim to all lands in the Americas west of the meridian established by the 1494 Treaty of Tordesillas.

The exact longitude of this meridian is uncertain, due to uncertainty regarding the size of the Earth, and disagreements on the datum longitude and the exact distance defined by the 'league', but even the most westerly interpretation places all of the modern USA in Spanish territory. The line is somewhere between 42°30'W and 50°W of Greenwich.

Rumours that Spain plans to keep the British out by building a wall, and having Portugal pay for it, are unfounded.

 

[ZiprHead]

Rumours that Spain plans to keep the British out by building a wall, and having Portugal pay for it, are unfounded.

Portugal will pay, bigly.

 

[TomC]

Sorry, but the British claim to the US East Coast is trumped by the Spanish claim to all lands in the Americas west of the meridian established by the 1494 Treaty of Tordesillas.

Is that the one where an Italian Pope settled the competing claims, with God's Authority?

Oh wait, no. I think that was the competing claims between Spain and Portugal.
Tom

 

[bilby]

Sorry, but the British claim to the US East Coast is trumped by the Spanish claim to all lands in the Americas west of the meridian established by the 1494 Treaty of Tordesillas.

Is that the one where an Italian Pope settled the competing claims, with God's Authority?

Oh wait, no. I think that was the competing claims between Spain and Portugal.
Tom

Well obviously you need a European to decide these things.

I mean, it would be absurd to ask the folks who already lived there.

 

[Jayjay]

Sorry, but the British claim to the US East Coast is trumped by the Spanish claim to all lands in the Americas west of the meridian established by the 1494 Treaty of Tordesillas.

Is that the one where an Italian Pope settled the competing claims, with God's Authority?

Oh wait, no. I think that was the competing claims between Spain and Portugal.
Tom

Well obviously you need a European to decide these things.

I mean, it would be absurd to ask the folks who already lived there.

Some of them didn't even have flags when they were discovered by Europeans. Savages!