How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[steve_bank]

Let’s not forget the Soviet debacle in Afghanistan, which certainly was a contributing factor to the breakup of the U.S.S.R. And the Soviets lost far fewer people there, than Russia is now. We can hope that this disaster precipitates the dissolution of Russia into an amalgam of weak, independent states.

I would actually like to see Russia or its separate states become healthy, functioning democracies. That's going to be a tough haul as the people of Russia have no idea what that is. If they ever get onto that proper democratic path we need to help them just as much as we are helping Ukraine. We really do.

I would like to see the U.S. become a healthy, functioning democracy. Since it is not, I doubt we can provide much help in that regard to a post-Putin Russia.

A functioning healthy democracy requires functional mentaly healthy people who can compromise.

 

[bilby]

It's not like somebody might discover that the things are unserviceable; They're not allowed to test one, so why not sign off on the inspection on the basis of getting a free bottle of vodka in exchange for your John Hancock?

Uh, models based on prior actual tests .... the data is there to be exploited.

Bye bye vodka/Hancock

How do those models go about detecting warheads whose innards have been removed and replaced with an equal mass of sand, gravel, or lead?

Since many of the devices have been in place since the sixties before restrictions there are plenty of material around to use in simulations.

It would take some pretty bold fudging to remove and replace material.

Besides those built and installed after inspection limitations and testing limits there is plenty of evidence of what is in and about those devices.

Sure there is.

Because the folks guarding them are all scrupulously honest, and would never sell valuable parts of them, despite the risk of them ever being caught out being effectively zero.

Lots of honest men in Russian military.

 

[fromderinside]

It's not like somebody might discover that the things are unserviceable; They're not allowed to test one, so why not sign off on the inspection on the basis of getting a free bottle of vodka in exchange for your John Hancock?

Uh, models based on prior actual tests .... the data is there to be exploited.

Bye bye vodka/Hancock

How do those models go about detecting warheads whose innards have been removed and replaced with an equal mass of sand, gravel, or lead?

Since many of the devices have been in place since the sixties before restrictions there are plenty of material around to use in simulations.

It would take some pretty bold fudging to remove and replace material.

Besides those built and installed after inspection limitations and testing limits there is plenty of evidence of what is in and about those devices.

Sure there is.

Because the folks guarding them are all scrupulously honest, and would never sell valuable parts of them, despite the risk of them ever being caught out being effectively zero.

Lots of honest men in Russian military.

I don't understand your reasoning. How can Russians be both Honest and conniving at the same time? How do they understand risk if they are stupid?

 

[TV and credit cards]

A couple of nice bits of information.



And

The success of recent Ukrainian counteroffensive operations may be impacting the will or ability of the Russian military command to use newly formed volunteer units in Ukraine in a timely fashion. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian military command has suspended sending new, already-formed units to Ukraine due to recent Russian losses and widespread distrust of the Russian military command, factors which have caused a large number of volunteers to categorically refuse to participate in combat. This assessment is still unconfirmed, but low morale due to Ukrainian counteroffensive success may prove devastating to the Kremlin’s already-poor ability to generate meaningful combat capability. The deployment of these newly formed units to reinforce defensive lines against Ukrainian counteroffensives would be an operationally-sound decision on the part of Russian military leadership; and the delay or potential suspension of these deployments will afford Ukrainian troops time to consolidate and then resume the offensive, should they choose to do so, without having to face newly arrived and fresh (albeit undertrained and understrength) units.

 

[Jayjay]

But at least the new Moscow ferris wheel is still working, right? The tallest and best ferris wheel in all of Europe, and the one that Putin personally showed up to inaugurate rather than comment on the war?

Колесо обозрения «Солнце Москвы», которое вчера открыл Путин, закрылось

Самое большое колесо обозрения в Европе «Солнце Москвы» закрылось. Накануне аттракцион открыл российский президент Владимир Путин. ...

daily.afisha.ru

(via google translate)

The largest Ferris wheel in Europe, the Sun of Moscow, has closed. The day before, the attraction was opened by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Telegram channel "Caution, news" writes that the "Sun of Moscow" was closed to visitors for technical reasons. The attraction worker offered to either keep the tickets with you, since you can ride them on a wheel until the end of 2023, or return the money through an application on the website or at the box office. She explained that technical work is underway on the wheel: "the system is being calibrated."

On the official website of the Sun of Moscow, the suspension is called "work in a limited mode" and "a measure that completely eliminates the massive influx of visitors." At the moment, the attraction "resumed work with restrictions," they said.

On the opening day, the wheel stopped several times , some visitors had to sit in booths at a height of 140 meters.

What a metaphor.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

But at least the new Moscow ferris wheel is still working, right? The tallest and best ferris wheel in all of Europe, and the one that Putin personally showed up to inaugurate rather than comment on the war?

Колесо обозрения «Солнце Москвы», которое вчера открыл Путин, закрылось

Самое большое колесо обозрения в Европе «Солнце Москвы» закрылось. Накануне аттракцион открыл российский президент Владимир Путин. ...

daily.afisha.ru

(via google translate)

The largest Ferris wheel in Europe, the Sun of Moscow, has closed. The day before, the attraction was opened by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Telegram channel "Caution, news" writes that the "Sun of Moscow" was closed to visitors for technical reasons. The attraction worker offered to either keep the tickets with you, since you can ride them on a wheel until the end of 2023, or return the money through an application on the website or at the box office. She explained that technical work is underway on the wheel: "the system is being calibrated."

On the official website of the Sun of Moscow, the suspension is called "work in a limited mode" and "a measure that completely eliminates the massive influx of visitors." At the moment, the attraction "resumed work with restrictions," they said.

On the opening day, the wheel stopped several times , some visitors had to sit in booths at a height of 140 meters.

What a metaphor.

We're probably not going to see too many of Putinator's detractors using the Putin Wheel. I mean you could fall out like from a window.

 

[ZiprHead]

But at least the new Moscow ferris wheel is still working, right? The tallest and best ferris wheel in all of Europe, and the one that Putin personally showed up to inaugurate rather than comment on the war?

Колесо обозрения «Солнце Москвы», которое вчера открыл Путин, закрылось

Самое большое колесо обозрения в Европе «Солнце Москвы» закрылось. Накануне аттракцион открыл российский президент Владимир Путин. ...

daily.afisha.ru

(via google translate)

The largest Ferris wheel in Europe, the Sun of Moscow, has closed. The day before, the attraction was opened by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Telegram channel "Caution, news" writes that the "Sun of Moscow" was closed to visitors for technical reasons. The attraction worker offered to either keep the tickets with you, since you can ride them on a wheel until the end of 2023, or return the money through an application on the website or at the box office. She explained that technical work is underway on the wheel: "the system is being calibrated."

On the official website of the Sun of Moscow, the suspension is called "work in a limited mode" and "a measure that completely eliminates the massive influx of visitors." At the moment, the attraction "resumed work with restrictions," they said.

On the opening day, the wheel stopped several times , some visitors had to sit in booths at a height of 140 meters.

What a metaphor.

We're probably not going to see too many of Putinator's detractors using the Putin Wheel. I mean you could fall out like from a window.

If I had investment money, I'd definitely put it in Russian window pane futures.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

But at least the new Moscow ferris wheel is still working, right? The tallest and best ferris wheel in all of Europe, and the one that Putin personally showed up to inaugurate rather than comment on the war?

Колесо обозрения «Солнце Москвы», которое вчера открыл Путин, закрылось

Самое большое колесо обозрения в Европе «Солнце Москвы» закрылось. Накануне аттракцион открыл российский президент Владимир Путин. ...

daily.afisha.ru

(via google translate)

The largest Ferris wheel in Europe, the Sun of Moscow, has closed. The day before, the attraction was opened by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Telegram channel "Caution, news" writes that the "Sun of Moscow" was closed to visitors for technical reasons. The attraction worker offered to either keep the tickets with you, since you can ride them on a wheel until the end of 2023, or return the money through an application on the website or at the box office. She explained that technical work is underway on the wheel: "the system is being calibrated."

On the official website of the Sun of Moscow, the suspension is called "work in a limited mode" and "a measure that completely eliminates the massive influx of visitors." At the moment, the attraction "resumed work with restrictions," they said.

On the opening day, the wheel stopped several times , some visitors had to sit in booths at a height of 140 meters.

What a metaphor.

Wait, so Russia is so messed up, they can't even go in circles?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Wait, so Russia is so messed up, they can't even go in circles?

It isn't going in circles. It's just continuously redeploying to the rear.

 

[steve_bank]

Unbelievable if the morning reports are true.

Russians surrendering, multiple towns liberated, and Moscow acknowledging retreat.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Ukranian farmers on tractors are harvesting a bumper crop of Russian tanks.

 

[Jayjay]

To avoid dehumanizing the opponent entirely, here's a sad phone call a Russian soldier made to his wife, probably his last:

 

[Elixir]

To avoid dehumanizing the opponent entirely, here's a sad phone call a Russian soldier made to his wife, probably his last:

Terrible.
But as far as dehumanizing, this dehumanizes the Putler regime quite effectively.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Ukranian farmers on tractors are harvesting a bumper crop of Russian tanks.

This would explain the munitions in the loaf of bread I bought recently.

 

[SLD]

This is a fascinating video, showing Ukrainian forces advancing. But listen to what is said towards the end!

 

[pood]

To avoid dehumanizing the opponent entirely, here's a sad phone call a Russian soldier made to his wife, probably his last:

Read this sad letter from a Russian (technically Luhansk) soldier who knew he was going to die. He did.

Putin must pay.

 

[steve_bank]

The US and the Russians were never allies. Not in the sense of the Brits. Stalin did not join the Allies pre war. When Brish intellgence told Stalin Hitler was preparing to invade Russia Stalin dismissed it as a trick.

American downed pilots and ground troops that ended up in Russian areas were not treated like allies.

It was more the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Remember Stalin made a non aggression pact with Hitler in exchange for Polish territory.

The Allies needed Russia to fight the Germans. Mu jaw dropped when I first read WWII casualty estimates. The total Soviet deaths and casualties were staggering. If the Soviets lost liberating Europe would have been far more costly.

Putin is the same old Russian story.

 

[Jayjay]

This is a fascinating video, showing Ukrainian forces advancing. But listen to what is said towards the end!

I can't make out what they are saying. Care to elaborate?

 

[pood]

The US and the Russians were never allies. Not in the sense of the Brits. Stalin did not join the Allies pre war. When Brish intellgence told Stalin Hitler was preparing to invade Russia Stalin dismissed it as a trick.

American downed pilots and ground troops that ended up in Russian areas were not treated like allies.

It was more the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Remember Stalin made a non aggression pact with Hitler in exchange for Polish territory.

The Allies needed Russia to fight the Germans. Mu jaw dropped when I first read WWII casualty estimates. The total Soviet deaths and casualties were staggering. If the Soviets lost liberating Europe would have been far more costly.

Putin is the same old Russian story.

Well, yes, they were allies. They became formally allies after Pearl Harbor drew the U.S. into the war. Before that, you were right, the U.S. supplied aid to the Soviets through lend-lease while officially being neutural But that began in October 1941 and two months later the U.S. was in the war.

Yes, Stalin made a non-aggression pact with Hitler, but that obviously was voided when Hitler violated the pact and attacked the Soviet Union.

 

[Rhea]

I feel such compassion, and also pity, for the poor soldiers who do not know what’s going on. Not unlike our American soldiers sent to Iraq to die for the neocons’ immoral war. And these Russian conscripts, who didn’t even volunteer, and are being sent to die, with only lies in their hands. It is truly very sad.