How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Swammerdami]

Why can't NATO turn the tables on Putin the Pig? There are foreign nationals in Ukraine that are being killed and bombed. Can't NATO at least give Ukraine its no-fly- request until these people are evacuated? Why can Putin the Pig do it for Russians but not other nations for their citizens?

Cowardice.

If we continue to resile from doing the right thing because we are afraid that a bully might respond with insane levels of violence, then the bully can do whatever he wants to do to anyone - including us.

The question isn't "dare we call his bluff?", it's "how much are we going to concede before we realise we have no choice but to call his bluff?".

France could have easily prevented Germany from re-arming in the 1930s. They could have sent in troops to kick the Germans out of the Rhineland; They could have invaded and beaten the crap out of the Wehrmacht when the Sudetenland was annexed. But instead they let things go and let things go, in the fear that another war with Germany would be devastating - and eventually, Germany proved them right.

They gained nothing from waiting but misery.

Emotionally, we all want to lash out at the bully, Vladimir Putin. But he can escalate and cause great problems even without going nuclear. Would Europe be able to cope if Putin turned off his gas pipelines?

The West needs to find ways to attack that wouldn't merit Russian escalation. For starters, I hope Ukraine is kept supplied with more and more Western weapons. And how hard would it be to ensure that Russia's airwaves and Internet are flooded with anti-Putin information?

What's the procedure for removing a permanent member of the U.S. Security Council? Can a super-majority of the General Assembly just make their own rules?

On the matter of France attacking Hitler's Rhineland in the 1930's, even September 1939 would not have been too late to prevail easily. Hitler hadn't expected the Allies to declare war and was not ready for a Second Front.

 

[Jayjay]

Russia unable to control the country and Ukrainians unable to expel the Russians is a stalemate.

Like the USA in Afghanistan Russia will stay in Ukraine at any cost knowing there is no political or military solution.

I don't think it's at all given that Russia will be unable to control the territory (or the parts it intends to keep at least). Russia held Crimea and "peope's republics" for 8 years with ease. It'll just as easily be able to hold rest of Donbas and the coastline.

 

[SLD]

I don’t normally agree with Republicans, but this appears to be a bipartisan agreement: Why the fuck isn’t Biden stopping Russian oil imports?

 

[ZiprHead]

Visa and MasterCard have suspended operations in Russia. Their cards will no longer work there.

 

[Elixir]

I don’t normally agree with Republicans, but this appears to be a bipartisan agreement: Why the fuck isn’t Biden stopping Russian oil imports?

Wanna hear Republicans complain about Biden stopping Russian oil imports, or what?

Republicans are all about law 'n order, which is why they side with Uncle Vlad against the Russian people. The Russian people are now mostly criminals, since Uncle Vlad has passed a law that makes something as simple as calling the Ukraine invasion an "invasion", punishable by fifteen years in prison.

 

[zorq]

Russia unable to control the country and Ukrainians unable to expel the Russians is a stalemate.

Like the USA in Afghanistan Russia will stay in Ukraine at any cost knowing there is no political or military solution.

I don't think it's at all given that Russia will be unable to control the territory (or the parts it intends to keep at least). Russia held Crimea and "people's republics" for 8 years with ease. It'll just as easily be able to hold rest of Donbas and the coastline.

Well, that's not quite the same. Ukraine was kind of trying to abide by the Minsk agreements over the 8 year period. Also, the territory that the "people's republics" were actually occupying was actually really small, lightly populated, and the people who did live there were largely Russian supporting populations. After 8 years, everyone who wasn't Russian supporting was shipped out/evacuated, cowed to silence, or purged of their lives by the rebel/Russian forces.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Why can't NATO turn the tables on Putin the Pig? There are foreign nationals in Ukraine that are being killed and bombed. Can't NATO at least give Ukraine its no-fly- request until these people are evacuated? Why can Putin the Pig do it for Russians but not other nations for their citizens?

We can’t just call it a no fly zone and expect Russia to respect it. We would likely have to take out any surface to air missile systems.

Sure; A 'no fly zone' implies the deployment of air supremacy fighters to shoot anything unauthorised down; And that likely implies ground attack aircraft (and possibly special forces troops on the ground, designating targets) to destroy radars and AAA systems that might otherwise be used to shoot down that enforcement force.

It's a major escalation.

That doesn't make it the wrong thing to do.

Doesn't make it the right thing to do either. This is incredibly complicated. What we seem to be seeing is that the Russian ground forces are weak, maybe even worse. Russia has been attacking successfully from abroad with shells

Right now, Russians are fighting Slavs. This isn't a particularly popular thing to do. This is why Putin created this ridiculous Nazi lie, because it makes it easier to justify military action. But if Russia really is using undertrained young people to fight on the ground, the morale is low and while this is between Russia and Slavic Ukraine, morale isn't going to improve. The second this becomes Russia v NATO, I think that mental dynamic changes.

I have no idea if this is the thinking, but I think the goal is let Putin demoralize his own army. He doesn't seem to have the logistics for a northern front siege. Which means his own army will start suffering greatly... in an pre-emptive offensive. Russia can shell Ukraine forever, but how long can they feed their own forces?

The trouble will be the EU/NATO supplying food/medical to seized or sieged areas. Putin will consider pretty much anything "an act of war". The big question is where does the Russian military draw the line. Putin can order a tactical nuclear as much as he wants. It requires the military to follow through. And the military must understand the pain and possibly death such a decision would cause to Russians.

 

[Elixir]

And the military must understand the pain and possibly death such a decision would cause to Russians.

The military in particular, is fed an exclusive diet of propaganda. They are probably thinking Mother Russia is doomed if they don’t sacrifice their lives to save it from the Ukrainian Nazis.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

And the military must understand the pain and possibly death such a decision would cause to Russians.

The military in particular, is fed an exclusive diet of propaganda. They are probably thinking Mother Russia is doomed if they don’t sacrifice their lives to save it from the Ukrainian Nazis.

I'm talking the top brass in the Russian military. Putin doesn't call some newb and launch nuclear weapons.

 

[Elixir]

And the military must understand the pain and possibly death such a decision would cause to Russians.

The military in particular, is fed an exclusive diet of propaganda. They are probably thinking Mother Russia is doomed if they don’t sacrifice their lives to save it from the Ukrainian Nazis.

I'm talking the top brass in the Russian military. Putin doesn't call some newb and launch nuclear weapons.

So … no significant internal resistance can be expected.

Russian culture and history dictate that if you are an exalted member of the ruling class, the suffering of the common citizen is not something with which you need to be concerned. It also limits the life expectancy of any member of The Elite who shows signs of such concern.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

And the military must understand the pain and possibly death such a decision would cause to Russians.

The military in particular, is fed an exclusive diet of propaganda. They are probably thinking Mother Russia is doomed if they don’t sacrifice their lives to save it from the Ukrainian Nazis.

I'm talking the top brass in the Russian military. Putin doesn't call some newb and launch nuclear weapons.

So … no significant internal resistance can be expected.

Russian culture and history dictate that if you are an exalted member of the ruling class, the suffering of the common citizen is not something with which you need to be concerned. It also limits the life expectancy of any member of The Elite who shows signs of such concern.

You are presuming knowledge we have no clue on. NSA might have a better idea, but I have no idea and neither do you. I think it is definitely unknown if the Russian military would follow through on a tactical nuclear strike.

 

[ZiprHead]

I'm sorry but

 

[Toni]

And the military must understand the pain and possibly death such a decision would cause to Russians.

The military in particular, is fed an exclusive diet of propaganda. They are probably thinking Mother Russia is doomed if they don’t sacrifice their lives to save it from the Ukrainian Nazis.

I'm talking the top brass in the Russian military. Putin doesn't call some newb and launch nuclear weapons.

So … no significant internal resistance can be expected.

Russian culture and history dictate that if you are an exalted member of the ruling class, the suffering of the common citizen is not something with which you need to be concerned. It also limits the life expectancy of any member of The Elite who shows signs of such concern.

You are presuming knowledge we have no clue on. NSA might have a better idea, but I have no idea and neither do you. I think it is definitely unknown if the Russian military would follow through on a tactical nuclear strike.

There are reports that Putin's plans re: Ukraine prior to the actual invasion were being leaked to the US and NATO by someone in his inner circle. This caused him to change strategies, but also to have more and more doubts about who he can trust. There are also photos being circulated of Putin sitting half a football field away from his advisors at conference tables.

Do I *know* for a fact that at least one person in his inner circle is leaking information? Nope. I'm not anywhere adjacent to national security, or the whole alphabet soup. Do I *know* for a fact that just being made to think that he is being betrayed by someone in his inner circle is playing some serious mind games with Putin? Nope.

But I hear both from sources I consider fairly reliable.

 

[Elixir]

You are presuming knowledge we have no clue on.

That's the nature of the situation.
Any statement about what Pootey and/or members of his inner circle might do or have done, is speculative.
My speculation that it's dangerous business for any member of Pootey's cabal to go against him - or even critique anything he does - is well founded based on history and current behavior, IMHO. Of course I still harbor some hope... after all, it only takes one successful attempt ...
but I think that inner circle consists of people who have been well vetted to ensure that they will act in their own self interest rather than the interests of Russian people at at large.

 

[blastula]

‘I Just Can’t Stand By’: American Veterans Join the Fight in Ukraine - NY Times

Under a foreign flag: Canadian veterans explain why they're fighting for Ukraine
Social Sharing - CBC

If you want to be one of the foreign fighters, here's how.

To combat Russia, Ukraine invites foreign fighters. Here’s how to apply

Ukraine, as it combats Russia's full-fledged invasion, is rapidly creating its own International Legion, a military force composed of international volunteers enlisting to help defend Ukraine. Three days after the start of Russia's further invasion, on Feb. 27, Ukraine's leadership announced...

kyivindependent.com

 

[Copernicus]

Bellingcat presents evidence that Russia is using cluster bombs in Ukraine against civilian targets:

Invasion of Ukraine: Tracking use of Cluster Munitions in Civilian Areas​

Ukraine also possesses cluster bombs but has not used them. The US last used them in 2003 and had banned their use until the Trump administration reversed that ban in 2017. The Biden administration is reimplementing the ban.

Meduza has been banned in Russia but is still online outside of Russia and is reporting on the ground in Ukraine. They have listed all of the news organizations that Putin has now banned, with Meduza at the top of the list:

The day the news died Here are all Russia’s independent media outlets banned, blocked, or shuttered in just the past few days​

 

[TV and credit cards]

From Copernicus' link, Russia's rules for nuclear engagement look quite conservative:

-- the use of nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction against Russia or its allies;
-- data showing the launch of ballistic missiles aimed at Russia or its allies;
-- an attack on critical government or military sites that would undermine the country's nuclear forces response actions;
-- the use of conventional weapons against Russia "when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.

So from this, not even NATO engaging Russian forces in Ukraine is justification for their use. Perhaps military units within Russia itself but even then I think it's a spin to get to jeopardizing the very existence of the state.
So if Putin steps out of line on the justification does the chain of command say no?


Stopping any imports of Russian energy to the US and getting those MiGs to Ukrainian pilots should be immediate. I hope Biden isn't worried about how it looks politically if he has to ease up on restrictions of US produced oil. Now is not the time.

 

[lpetrich]

One can see why right-wingers might like present-day Russia. Belligerent nationalism, prominence of organized religion in politics, official homophobia, ...

But what I find curious is the lack of acknowledgment of their complete fliparound from their Cold-War days. Don't any of the older ones have any memories of the Cold War and what an evil empire they considered the Soviet Union? They never say that they are glad to see the end of Communism there, that they are glad to see capitalism flourish there, that they are glad to see the country dominated by oligarchs, etc.

Joseph Stalin would have chuckled at this rewrite of history. Lots of Old Bolshevik leaders officially became nobodies, including his fellow revolutionary Leon Trotsky.  The Commissar Vanishes has a big collection of official pictures where disfavored leaders were painted out of later versions of those pictures -- analog Photoshopping. But after Stalin died, his successors turned him into a nobody, barely talking about him. When they did, they'd refer to his personality cult, as though his vanity was a much bigger problem than his mass murders and repressions.  Joseph Stalin's cult of personality - Modern History Sourcebook: Hymn to Stalin at Fordham University

 

[marc]

Right now, Russians are fighting Slavs. This isn't a particularly popular thing to do. This is why Putin created this ridiculous Nazi lie, because it makes it easier to justify military action. But if Russia really is using undertrained young people to fight on the ground, the morale is low and while this is between Russia and Slavic Ukraine, morale isn't going to improve. The second this becomes Russia v NATO, I think that mental dynamic changes.

Kind of reminds me of the first Iraq war. Sadam really had no chance against the US by himself, so he started lobbing misses at Israel, likely thinking if he could get them to attack then other nations in the region would come in on his side. Here Putin likewise thinks expanding the war might get him more support

 

[blastula]

There's a letter going around from an alleged FSB analyst on his thinking of the situation.



Translated here.

Thread by @igorsushko on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App.

Interesting read, and it rings authentic.

It ends with his thoughts on the nuclear question.

To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world.
First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people involved in the process and there is no single “red” button.
Second, there are certain doubts that it actually functions properly.

Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s murky as to who controls what and how, but always files reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems.

I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.
Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity.

Whether it’s due to Putin's fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If Putin is scared for the most trusted people to be near him, then how could he possibly choose to destroy himself and those dearest to him?

But take with some salt, even if real.