Breakdown In Civil Order

[Loren Pechtel]

A lot of the discussion of crime has the presumption that all criminals everywhere are known to have committed their crimes. But that is not the case, and for many property crimes, that is far from the case.

So I think that police forces need to become MUCH more efficient in solving property crimes. One does not need severe penalties, only certain ones, and for small crimes, penalties should be small. Should one be sentenced to 20 years in prison for running a red light?

I think we need a different charge here.

Yes, heavy penalties for minor crime is unreasonable. However, organized theft rings are a far different issue than petty theft and should carry a substantially higher penalty.

 

[bilby]

San Francisco still going down the toilet;

Numerous groups of tourists visiting a beach in San Francisco had all their belongings stolen from their cars, including their passports, while at the ocean for just minutes. On their second day in San Francisco, a group of tourists from Malta contemplated cutting their trip short and returning to Europe after the brazen smash and grab that occurred in broad daylight within a mere 10-minute window. Shocking footage captured by Matty Lopez on Instagram and shared by journalist Arisley T. Pacheco, who documents robbery victims, revealed their car's trunk vandalized, with shattered glass scattered across the ground. The man recording the video questions the tourists, 'So what happened - you went to the beach for five minutes?' Their response is disheartening: 'They took everything we had - passports, cameras, phones, iPads, laptops, luggage - everything.'

Daily Mail

Let's Go Newsom 2024!

You realize street theft is a big issue in Europe?

OMG! That Newsom is more powerful than we thought! Now he's taken over Europe as well!!

 

[bilby]

A lot of the discussion of crime has the presumption that all criminals everywhere are known to have committed their crimes. But that is not the case, and for many property crimes, that is far from the case.

So I think that police forces need to become MUCH more efficient in solving property crimes. One does not need severe penalties, only certain ones, and for small crimes, penalties should be small. Should one be sentenced to 20 years in prison for running a red light?

I think we need a different charge here.

Yes, heavy penalties for minor crime is unreasonable. However, organized theft rings are a far different issue than petty theft and should carry a substantially higher penalty.

Some kind of law specifically targeted against organised crime, you mean?

I wonder why nobody thought of that.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

A lot of the discussion of crime has the presumption that all criminals everywhere are known to have committed their crimes. But that is not the case, and for many property crimes, that is far from the case.

So I think that police forces need to become MUCH more efficient in solving property crimes. One does not need severe penalties, only certain ones, and for small crimes, penalties should be small. Should one be sentenced to 20 years in prison for running a red light?

I think we need a different charge here.

Yes, heavy penalties for minor crime is unreasonable. However, organized theft rings are a far different issue than petty theft and should carry a substantially higher penalty.

I remember working retail as a teen in the mid-90s, and there were "organized theft rings." It was generally petty and limited shrinkage, but over a long period, it added up to a small tidy sum. We had store detectives about, more generally about preventing theft from starting via presence (the thieves knew who they were) than an active thieving. Thanks to social media, people act like theft was invented by President Obama.
We need to manage crimes and justice a bit better. This whole jail or nothing is stupid. It costs society too much money and we get nothing from it.

 

[thebeave]

To be charitable to Newsom, such problems were going on well before he became Governor. He did inherit a mess.

So, looking at the statistics, 2022 robberies in California were around 33% of the number in 1993. Aggravated assault is down 40% from 1993 levels. This is bulk numbers, not per capita! Homicides have risen in the last 10 years, but are still notably reduced from the early 90s, again bulk stats, not per capita. Larceny theft is lower now than five years ago. Much lower than 30 years ago.

Petty theft certainly seems to be on a rise. That is a problem, needs to be addressed. Of course, the whole fire and brimstone judicial anvil isn't quite as simple a solution. As well as not exaggerating how bad things are. One would swear that we were living in Escape from New York or Mad Max times. As if gang violence, car theft, robberies didn't exist 50 years ago. Trends in increasing crime need to be analyzed and dealt with. Not exaggerated into a comical apocalyptic partisan fueled fantasy land.

OK, so violent crime isn't as bad as it was at its peak 30 years ago, which was an all time high over many decades before and after. Time for celebration, I guess. I'll get the party hats, you can get the confetti. One thing that is missing from the recent stats, though, is (at least in the big cities) that businesses and people are so fed up and exasperated with the lack of response from the police (who are way understaffed) that they generally don't even bother reporting many lesser crimes. Response times are in the hours, if the cops even respond at all. So you can expect that the true crime rates for larceny & petty theft and aggravated assault are higher than documented. Law enforcement is still responding to homicides, thankfully, so that stat should be fairly accurate and that crime is on the rise.

Mad Max is not as far off as you might imagine:





Add to the crime the homeless encampments, rampant drug dealing and abuse, human feces on the sidewalks, mentally ill people babbling and wandering aimlessly, people passed out and its quite dystopian already, at least in many of the biggest cities of California. There are no shortage of videos showing all this, and the city leaders acknowledge it is a bad situation.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

To be charitable to Newsom, such problems were going on well before he became Governor. He did inherit a mess.

So, looking at the statistics, 2022 robberies in California were around 33% of the number in 1993. Aggravated assault is down 40% from 1993 levels. This is bulk numbers, not per capita! Homicides have risen in the last 10 years, but are still notably reduced from the early 90s, again bulk stats, not per capita. Larceny theft is lower now than five years ago. Much lower than 30 years ago.

Petty theft certainly seems to be on a rise. That is a problem, needs to be addressed. Of course, the whole fire and brimstone judicial anvil isn't quite as simple a solution. As well as not exaggerating how bad things are. One would swear that we were living in Escape from New York or Mad Max times. As if gang violence, car theft, robberies didn't exist 50 years ago. Trends in increasing crime need to be analyzed and dealt with. Not exaggerated into a comical apocalyptic partisan fueled fantasy land.

OK, so violent crime isn't as bad as it was at its peak 30 years ago, which was an all time high over many decades before and after. Time for celebration, I guess. I'll get the party hats, you can get the confetti.

The title of the thread is "Breakdown in Civil Order". Noting that violent crimes were much higher 30 years ago would expose the hyperbole in the term "breakdown" in the title.

One thing that is missing from the recent stats, though, is (at least in the big cities) that businesses and people are so fed up and exasperated with the lack of response from the police (who are way understaffed) that they generally don't even bother reporting many lesser crimes.

Which is why I specifically referenced violent crimes first. As there is little reason for those to go under-reported.

Response times are in the hours, if the cops even respond at all. So you can expect that the true crime rates for larceny & petty theft and aggravated assault are higher than documented. Law enforcement is still responding to homicides, thankfully, so that stat should be fairly accurate and that crime is on the rise.

And as soon as I note that there hasn't been an increase recently in petty theft, you'd have made a point. If one looks at the corporate side of things, shrinkage rates have gone up. They aren't huge, but it has gone up notably. This is a problem. It needs to be addressed. It isn't a sign of the End Times though. I think it might be a sign that conservative views on crime and the economy have really fucked things up. We aren't paying people jack and we put too many people into prisons, creating an odd class of citizen that has harder times being useful for society, which oddly enough seems to lead to recidivism. And people are shocked that decades of investment neglect in the inner city and rural America has led to problems. Our country has gotten so cheap and vindictive and stupid, with an absurd reliance on faith in inertia.

Add to the crime the homeless encampments, rampant drug dealing and abuse, human feces on the sidewalks, mentally ill people babbling and wandering aimlessly, people passed out and its quite dystopian already, at least in many of the biggest cities of California. There are no shortage of videos showing all this, and the city leaders acknowledge it is a bad situation.

I keep forgetting how the 1970s was utopia in America. No homelessness, no crime, no drug use. One wonders why Reagan even bothered with a "Drug War".

 

[thebeave]

Odd how you complain about the hyperbole in the word "Breakdown", but then proceed to later write, "I keep forgetting how the 1970s was utopia in America. No homelessness, no crime, no drug use.", which of course is a claim no one has said...ever, and is far more hyperbolic than the use of the word "breakdown". And then of course, putting the blame on conservatives for a state that has been politically blue from the federal level down to the city level (for the bigger cities anyway) for many years. And with a supermajority of Democrats running the state legislature.

 

[lpetrich]

I remember working retail as a teen in the mid-90s, and there were "organized theft rings." It was generally petty and limited shrinkage, but over a long period, it added up to a small tidy sum. We had store detectives about, more generally about preventing theft from starting via presence (the thieves knew who they were) than an active thieving. Thanks to social media, people act like theft was invented by President Obama.
We need to manage crimes and justice a bit better. This whole jail or nothing is stupid. It costs society too much money and we get nothing from it.

That's why I propose ankle monitors. Anyone caught stealing something small would have to wear them, and they would alert store employees.

 

[TSwizzle]

Who could have seen this happening;

New York City Mayor Eric Adams has torn into the migrant crisis crippling the Big Apple - which he warned will 'destroy' the city without urgent action. Speaking to furious residents at a town hall meeting on Wednesday, he admitted he doesn't see a solution to the problem as he slammed the lack of help from Joe Biden. 'Let me tell you something, New Yorkers. Never in my life have I had a problem that I did not see an ending to. I don't see an ending to this,' he conceded. 'This issue will destroy New York City. Destroy New York City.'
The former top cop grew emotional as he talked about buses of migrants arriving on a near-daily basis, with over 10,000 arriving every month. Upwards of 110,000 are littered across the metro, and Adams' office has estimated the issue will cost New York City $12billion over three years. Authorities are concerned that without an exit ramp, the situation could soon reach boiling point as furious protestors have clashed on the streets of the Five Boroughs while more migrants are left homeless by the limited space.

Daily Mail

NYC is a sanctuary city, they just need to get on with it.

 

[Emily Lake]

Sheriff Luna had the audacity to say, "you really ought to keep your doors and windows locked".

Well, she really shouldn't have been wearing that short skirt.

 

[Emily Lake]

He should have been locked up.

Really?

Where??

How much more tax are you happy to pay in order to make your dystopian vision a reality?

Yeah, I thought not.

Okay, seriously, are you in support of letting people with a well known documented history of violence and a likelihood to reoffend continue hurting people?

Why would you take that stance? What's your reasoning?

And why on earth do you think it's a "dystopian reality" to want violent criminals removed from society? Do you somehow think that having them roaming the streets killing and hurting people at will is somehow less dystopian?

 

[TomC]

Who could have seen this happening;

New York City Mayor Eric Adams has torn into the migrant crisis crippling the Big Apple - which he warned will 'destroy' the city without urgent action. Speaking to furious residents at a town hall meeting on Wednesday, he admitted he doesn't see a solution to the problem as he slammed the lack of help from Joe Biden. 'Let me tell you something, New Yorkers. Never in my life have I had a problem that I did not see an ending to. I don't see an ending to this,' he conceded. 'This issue will destroy New York City. Destroy New York City.'
The former top cop grew emotional as he talked about buses of migrants arriving on a near-daily basis, with over 10,000 arriving every month. Upwards of 110,000 are littered across the metro, and Adams' office has estimated the issue will cost New York City $12billion over three years. Authorities are concerned that without an exit ramp, the situation could soon reach boiling point as furious protestors have clashed on the streets of the Five Boroughs while more migrants are left homeless by the limited space.

Daily Mail

NYC is a sanctuary city, they just need to get on with it.

Why would poor immigrants go to NYC of all places?
The cost of living is astronomical there. Housing is tight.
It stinks and has rats.

Come here to southern Indiana! We've got room and jobs and really nice people. My home town was a sanctuary city before the term was invented. Don't drive by Indiana on your way from Texas to NYC! That place is a dump.
Tom

 

[Emily Lake]

The title of the thread is "Breakdown in Civil Order". Noting that violent crimes were much higher 30 years ago would expose the hyperbole in the term "breakdown" in the title.

Why stop there? Violent crimes were even higher about 500 years ago!

 

[Emily Lake]

Who could have seen this happening;

New York City Mayor Eric Adams has torn into the migrant crisis crippling the Big Apple - which he warned will 'destroy' the city without urgent action. Speaking to furious residents at a town hall meeting on Wednesday, he admitted he doesn't see a solution to the problem as he slammed the lack of help from Joe Biden. 'Let me tell you something, New Yorkers. Never in my life have I had a problem that I did not see an ending to. I don't see an ending to this,' he conceded. 'This issue will destroy New York City. Destroy New York City.'
The former top cop grew emotional as he talked about buses of migrants arriving on a near-daily basis, with over 10,000 arriving every month. Upwards of 110,000 are littered across the metro, and Adams' office has estimated the issue will cost New York City $12billion over three years. Authorities are concerned that without an exit ramp, the situation could soon reach boiling point as furious protestors have clashed on the streets of the Five Boroughs while more migrants are left homeless by the limited space.

Daily Mail

NYC is a sanctuary city, they just need to get on with it.

You know, I have some empathy with new yorkers on this. On the other hand, I also admit to a bit of schadenfreude about it. This is something that many states in the SW have been dealing with for decades, and when the citizens and officials of those states have expressed concern about the disruption, the cost, and the overall impact to their states... they've been derided as being racist bigots by people in states that never had to deal with it. Now they're getting a taste of it, and perhaps they'll step back and actually think about the issue of immigration pressures without the biased assumptions they've relied on to shut down discussion in the past.

 

[TomC]

Hey @TSwizzle
Why do you think all those people wind up in NYC?

I can't imagine it being because it's such a Mecca for the poor and homeless. Maybe they're being coerced for political theatre by folks like Abbott?

People who don't care what happens to their Brother's in Christ, as long as it serves their political agenda? That's what it looks like to me. Christian folks being vicious to "the least among you", because Jesus was a 1st century communist dumbass who doesn't matter any more.
Tom

 

[ZiprHead]

The Truthiness About Crime in America

Why are national leaders promising to fix a problem that hasn’t really existed for more than two decades? The answer may be that many Americans never got that message.

www.brennancenter.org

It should be no secret that, nationally, crime rates have fallen dramatically over the past quarter century. In fact, most Americans have not lived through a period of time safer than what they experienced during the second term of the Obama presidency. Data compiled annually by the FBI calculating the number of crimes committed shows a clear and remarkably consistent trend. From 1992 through 2014 (the most recent year for which complete FBI data is available) the violent crime rate decreased 52 percent and the property crime rate fell 47 percent. The combined crime rate has decreased, year over year, in 22 out of the past 23 years tracked by the FBI.

The public’s misperception of crime levels is particularly dangerous because public opinion strongly influences public policy. Offering facts that contradict voters’ opinions is an uphill climb, especially if another candidate is willing to pander to constituents’ suspect beliefs in return for political support. This historical truth can explain why an entire day of the Republican National Convention was themed Make America Safe Again at a time when, for most of those in attendance, crime rates in their hometowns were near the lowest point they have been in more than half a century.

As former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich put it while speaking at the convention, “The average American, I would bet you this morning, does not think crime is down, does not think they are safer.” And he is exactly right: most Americans have it wrong when it comes to crime levels. Facts notwithstanding, crime reduction and public safety appears to be as good a platform to run on now as it has ever been. Responding to an interviewer who lamented that “[the people] may feel it, but the facts don’t support it” former Speaker Gingrich replied “As a political candidate, I will go with how people feel and I will let you go with the theoreticians.” Regrettably, that may not be such a bad strategy.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Hey remember when crime went up when Trump was President and they blamed the Democrats?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

You know, I have some empathy with new yorkers on this. On the other hand, I also admit to a bit of schadenfreude about it. This is something that many states in the SW have been dealing with for decades, and when the citizens and officials of those states have expressed concern about the disruption, the cost, and the overall impact to their states... they've been derided as being racist bigots by people in states that never had to deal with it. Now they're getting a taste of it, and perhaps they'll step back and actually think about the issue of immigration pressures without the biased assumptions they've relied on to shut down discussion in the past.

Yes, because if there is any city in the nation that knows nothing about immigration, it'd be New York City.

There isn't a facepalm big enough...

 

[bilby]

Who could have seen this happening;

New York City Mayor Eric Adams has torn into the migrant crisis crippling the Big Apple - which he warned will 'destroy' the city without urgent action. Speaking to furious residents at a town hall meeting on Wednesday, he admitted he doesn't see a solution to the problem as he slammed the lack of help from Joe Biden. 'Let me tell you something, New Yorkers. Never in my life have I had a problem that I did not see an ending to. I don't see an ending to this,' he conceded. 'This issue will destroy New York City. Destroy New York City.'
The former top cop grew emotional as he talked about buses of migrants arriving on a near-daily basis, with over 10,000 arriving every month. Upwards of 110,000 are littered across the metro, and Adams' office has estimated the issue will cost New York City $12billion over three years. Authorities are concerned that without an exit ramp, the situation could soon reach boiling point as furious protestors have clashed on the streets of the Five Boroughs while more migrants are left homeless by the limited space.

Daily Mail

NYC is a sanctuary city, they just need to get on with it.

Someone should point out the the Daily Mail that New York City has basically always been like this, a seething cauldron of immigrants overwhelming the limited space available to house them, and that this fact has been a major reason why it's become one of the greatest cities in the world. London, Paris, Mumbai, Tokyo and Melbourne all have (or have had) the exact same "problem", and in each case it has propelled them into becoming centres of wealth and excellence, albeit at significant cost to those who try their luck and fail.

Of course, the problem here isn't people migrating in large numbers to New York to try their luck in a place of great opportunity; The problem (which we are all supposed to know and understand, but not mention) is that these people are the wrong sort. ie foreigners.

Xenophobia from established New Yorkers isn't novel. It was the exact same disaster, with the exact same potential to destroy the city, when the Irish and the Jews swarmed the place. Mexicans are, of course, completely different (just not in any way that makes the slightest difference at all).

 

[bilby]

Okay, seriously, are you in support of letting people with a well known documented history of violence and a likelihood to reoffend continue hurting people?

No.

Are you really of the opinion that the only way to stop that from happening is to imprison all the "bad people" for life?

"If only it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?" - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn