Breakdown In Civil Order

[Loren Pechtel]

As a simple accounting measure, is the cost of imprisoning a petty thief less expensive than the petty theft?

As a more sociological view, is imprisoning a petty thief going to make them steal less when they are released?

Theft sucks. Crime sucks. This isn't in dispute. The problem is many in the US want to punish people. It isn't about trying to fix something that is broken, they want someone to feel pain. And typical someone guilty of something they know they likely won't get into trouble doing... which is why driving drunk isn't as vilified by many as theft.

We had a war on drugs with lots of prison. We managed to stuff our prisons with people that took beds away from actually dangerous folk. And people are still buying, selling drugs.

Without the threat of prison there is no meaningful deterrent to a life of petty theft. If the system isn't going to do anything why not just keep stealing?

(And I think you have the economics wrong--yes, imprisoning a petty thief is more expensive than what he stole that time. It's just the people who do it as a lifestyle steal again and again and again. Given the low yield on stolen goods if they're supporting themselves that way they're probably costing more than prison would.)

 

[bilby]

Without the threat of prison there is no meaningful deterrent to a life of petty theft. If the system isn't going to do anything why not just keep stealing?

There is so much wrong in these two sentences that it's hard to know where to start.

Imprisonment is not the only thing that anyone could possibly feel threatened by.

The threat of prison is currently NOT a meaningful deterrent to a life of petty theft, because deterrence depends on a risk assessment, and risk is consequence multiplied by probability - and petty thieves consider the probability of being caught to be close to zero. No matter how severe they consider imprisonment to be as a consequence, any number multiplied by a very tiny number yields a very tiny number.

The system currently isn't going to do anything. Seriously. Call the cops as the victim of a petty theft, and watch as the justice system leaps into action - oh, wait, I mean watch as the only action taken is to give you a police report number so that you can make an insurance claim.

No matter how harsh you make the punishments, no petty criminal will be deterred by them in a system where he expects never to be punished at all.

However, the evidence from elsewhere strongly suggests that non-custodial punishments are highly effective in deterring crime, as long as there's a high probability that any crime will lead to such a punishment.

The evidence based approach to reducing petty crime is:

• Small penalties
• Penalties that don't reduce the future ability of offenders to find lawful employment
• High probability of detection
• High probability of conviction for guilty suspects
• Low probability of conviction for innocent suspects
• Short delay between crime and trial
• Short delay between conviction and sentencing
• Mutual respect and trust between police and community
• Uniform application of the law to all citizens
• Punishments that are proportionate to the harm done by the offender
• Equal punishment for equal crimes

The system in most parts of the USA is almost as poorly designed to meet these requirements as it could be; And yet the proposed "solution", of further increasing the length of prison sentences, is one of the few ways in which it could actually be made worse.

The money currently being wasted on prisons could and should be being spent on detection, investigation, and forensics to ensure that petty criminals are likely to be caught; On the court system to ensure that trials are both timely and equitable; And on community policing to engage police and other citizens with each other, and build trust and friendship between officers and the public at large.

But most of all, if the objective is lower incidence of petty crime, that money should be spent on education, employment programs, housing programs, and a social safety net.

 

[TSwizzle]

It's not pretty in Philadelphia;

Disturbing new video from Philadelphia shows addicts on the street in a trance like state, passed out on the sidewalk in the city's multiple homeless encampments. In the Kensington neighborhood, the footage shows fires burning on trash littered sidewalks as groups of people set up camp. Drug users are seen hunched over with no control of their limbs, while others are sprawled across the garbage covered streets.

Daily Mail

 

[Politesse]

The British press has been having a field day with the supposed "doom loop" symbolized by a wave of downtown business closures that hit San Francisco in the spring. However, most of those vacancies are already filling up, most without ever officially going on the market. The current Nordstroms location has recently been snapped up by Japanese arcade giant Round1; 945 Market Street has been bought, developed and opened by Ikea. It turns out partisan hyperbole is not a good predictor of the real estate market.

Is this "decline of civil order" observational, or aspirational?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

As a simple accounting measure, is the cost of imprisoning a petty thief less expensive than the petty theft?

As a more sociological view, is imprisoning a petty thief going to make them steal less when they are released?

Theft sucks. Crime sucks. This isn't in dispute. The problem is many in the US want to punish people. It isn't about trying to fix something that is broken, they want someone to feel pain. And typical someone guilty of something they know they likely won't get into trouble doing... which is why driving drunk isn't as vilified by many as theft.

We had a war on drugs with lots of prison. We managed to stuff our prisons with people that took beds away from actually dangerous folk. And people are still buying, selling drugs.

Without the threat of prison there is no meaningful deterrent to a life of petty theft. If the system isn't going to do anything why not just keep stealing?

This leads to a couple questions. Again, how much does petty theft cost? Not one time, but the aggregate? Verses how much does housing them in prison cost? That is the plus/minus to look at. If it costs more to house them, just cut a check to the store and save money! No, I'm not being completely serious, but the economics aren't as simple as theft bad, throw in prison.

Secondly, is prison that only imaginable punishment possible? We are creating permanent under classes in this country with our obsession to put people in their place. And THAT is costing our economy a lot more money than theft.

Thirdly, aren't the courts already stuffed with real crimes that need to be dealt with? We don't have enough police or enough courts to manage petty theft. Larger scale theft, social media theft bombs and the like should put out like a cigarette butt. But this idea we can just solve a problem with prison is naïve. As naïve as thinking if we just let them go, they'll stop it is naïve. We need a real solution. Not pansy liberal new age crap, but not dystopian conservative crap either. We need to look at cause and effects and manage the causes and the effects. But this costs money and in America, the only thing we allow for spending is on guns, military, and prisons. Maybe roads.

 

[steve_bank]

The Tacoma police chief said on camera that the ring violnce is not about the vailability of guns, in his words there is something else going on.

Here in the region there is work for anyone who wants to work. Construction unions can't find enough people for apprenticeships that lead to good paying union jobs.

An underclass is being created by a stream of illegals alloed to saty with no language, education. and language skills. Estimates are on the order of 10s of millions and no one knows where they are.

Seattle is fostering a permanent homeless class.

I grew up mostly in public housing in 50s 60s. Looking back what was important to me was hav ing part time jobs. It gave me spending money. The best money to spend is to subsidize companies to give kids part time jobs.

Here in Seattle the high min wage can make it difficult to hire part time kids.

There is a rise in teen armed robberies. Steal a car, smash through a storefront.

People and stire owners are getting pissed, outspoken, and scared.

 

[scombrid]

without prison there is no meaningful deterrent to a life of petty theft

Prison isn't a meaningful deterrent to a life of petty theft, unless petty thieves have a realistic expectation that they will be caught and convicted.

If a thousand petty thieves got a thousand one-month jail sentences, petty theft would quickly disappear.

But what actually happens is that a thousand petty thieves get maybe a hundred jail sentences, and the idiots in charge think that the reason this doesn't eliminate petty theft is that those who are convicted don't get life terms.

The problem isn't light sentences for convicts; It's low conviction rates for crimes.

Even recidivism looks like a good idea, when you know your last jail term was just misfortune, rather than an inevitable consequence of your misdeeds.

Add to the low conviction rates the seemingly arbitrary, capricious, and hypocritical enforcement of the law. People aren’t going to play by rules that are inconsistently enforced or by rules that apply to them but not the ruling class. It is like kids in an alcoholic home that get an occasional drunken fury of a beating but that otherwise are left to the own survival devices.

 

[Emily Lake]

You're the one who mocked the idea of keeping repeat violent offenders off the streets as a dystopian vision

No, I mocked the idea of putting violent repeat offenders into prisons that already have insufficient capacity as a dystopian vision, and asked how much tax TSwizzle would be happy to pay to make that happen.

That you cannot apparently distinguish between "keeping repeat violent offenders off the streets" and "imprisoning more people in already overcrowded jails", is as disappointing as it is unsurprising.

You're literally right here mocking the idea of putting VIOLENT REPEAT OFFENDERS INTO PRISONS... with no alternative being offered.

Your own argument is that the jails are too overcrowded so we can't put the repeat violent offenders in them... so yeah, I don't know what distinction you think exists.

 

[Emily Lake]

without prison there is no meaningful deterrent to a life of petty theft

Prison isn't a meaningful deterrent to a life of petty theft, unless petty thieves have a realistic expectation that they will be caught and convicted.

If a thousand petty thieves got a thousand one-month jail sentences, petty theft would quickly disappear.

But what actually happens is that a thousand petty thieves get maybe a hundred jail sentences, and the idiots in charge think that the reason this doesn't eliminate petty theft is that those who are convicted don't get life terms.

The problem isn't light sentences for convicts; It's low conviction rates for crimes.

Even recidivism looks like a good idea, when you know your last jail term was just misfortune, rather than an inevitable consequence of your misdeeds.

This I agree with.

 

[Politesse]

without prison there is no meaningful deterrent to a life of petty theft

Prison isn't a meaningful deterrent to a life of petty theft, unless petty thieves have a realistic expectation that they will be caught and convicted.

If a thousand petty thieves got a thousand one-month jail sentences, petty theft would quickly disappear.

But what actually happens is that a thousand petty thieves get maybe a hundred jail sentences, and the idiots in charge think that the reason this doesn't eliminate petty theft is that those who are convicted don't get life terms.

The problem isn't light sentences for convicts; It's low conviction rates for crimes.

Even recidivism looks like a good idea, when you know your last jail term was just misfortune, rather than an inevitable consequence of your misdeeds.

Add to the low conviction rates the seemingly arbitrary, capricious, and hypocritical enforcement of the law. People aren’t going to play by rules that are inconsistently enforced or by rules that apply to them but not the ruling class. It is like kids in an alcoholic home that get an occasional drunken fury of a beating but that otherwise are left to the own survival devices.

Juvie policing to a T. Sometimes nothing, sometimes a beating.

 

[Emily Lake]

As a simple accounting measure, is the cost of imprisoning a petty thief less expensive than the petty theft?

Less expensive for whom? For an individual whose property was stolen, I would bet that the portion of their taxes that contributes to prison is much smaller than the value of the property they've lost.

 

[steve_bank]

Around the time of the MLB all star game in Seattle a larger crowd and street racers took over a main street in front of a grocery store where I go shopping.

Two police cars showed up but they were outnumbered. People were jumping on the police cars.

Videos that made it to the local news showed a scene out of the first Fast And Furious movie. Four people shot.

Our city council is still unwilling to ban public drug use saying it criminalizes addiction, the result people laying around on the street doing drugs passed out. People smoking drugs on busses.

I walk and take the bus, I see it myself and have to deal with it.

 

[steve_bank]

Around the time of the MLB all star game in Seattle a larger crowd and street racers took over a main street in front of a grocery store where I go shopping.

Two police cars showed up but they were outnumbered. People were jumping on the police cars.

Videos that made it to the local news showed a scene out of the first Fast And Furious movie. Four people shot.

Our city council is still unwilling to ban public drug use saying it criminalizes addiction, the result people laying around on the street doing drugs passed out. People smoking drugs on busses.

I walk and take the bus, I see it myself and have to deal with it.

seattle street racing cpitol hill video - Google Search

www.google.com

Can't find the video of the racing.

Fewer people are applying to be cops in Seattle, can't blame them.

I call that a brekdown in civil order.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

As a simple accounting measure, is the cost of imprisoning a petty thief less expensive than the petty theft?

As a more sociological view, is imprisoning a petty thief going to make them steal less when they are released?

Theft sucks. Crime sucks. This isn't in dispute. The problem is many in the US want to punish people. It isn't about trying to fix something that is broken, they want someone to feel pain. And typical someone guilty of something they know they likely won't get into trouble doing... which is why driving drunk isn't as vilified by many as theft.

We had a war on drugs with lots of prison. We managed to stuff our prisons with people that took beds away from actually dangerous folk. And people are still buying, selling drugs.

Without the threat of prison there is no meaningful deterrent to a life of petty theft. If the system isn't going to do anything why not just keep stealing?

This leads to a couple questions. Again, how much does petty theft cost? Not one time, but the aggregate? Verses how much does housing them in prison cost? That is the plus/minus to look at. If it costs more to house them, just cut a check to the store and save money! No, I'm not being completely serious, but the economics aren't as simple as theft bad, throw in prison.

You're missing the deterrent effect. You don't need to jail most of the thieves as theft will become much less attractive if there was more than a minuscule chance of going to jail.

Secondly, is prison that only imaginable punishment possible? We are creating permanent under classes in this country with our obsession to put people in their place. And THAT is costing our economy a lot more money than theft.

The problem is that since they've decided on a life of crime non-jail punishments are not much of a deterrent.

Thirdly, aren't the courts already stuffed with real crimes that need to be dealt with? We don't have enough police or enough courts to manage petty theft. Larger scale theft, social media theft bombs and the like should put out like a cigarette butt. But this idea we can just solve a problem with prison is naïve. As naïve as thinking if we just let them go, they'll stop it is naïve. We need a real solution. Not pansy liberal new age crap, but not dystopian conservative crap either. We need to look at cause and effects and manage the causes and the effects. But this costs money and in America, the only thing we allow for spending is on guns, military, and prisons. Maybe roads.

The problem is the thieves have figured out that we can't manage it and the internet has provided a much better marketplace for the stolen wares.

 

[bilby]

they've decided on a life of crime

I'm sure that in your imagination, people are sitting down and mulling their career options, before deciding that the best fit for their aptitudes and aspirations is "crime".

Meanwhile in the real world, nobody except mobsters like Trump "decides" on a life of crime. It's something that is thrust upon them by circumstance.

 

[Gospel]

I won't deny that some are compelled into such situations, but I personally know several individuals who, despite having the ability to pursue more substantial and rewarding paths, consciously opt for quick financial gains.

 

[Elixir]

I'm sure that in your imagination, people are sitting down and mulling their career options, before deciding that the best fit for their aptitudes and aspirations is "crime".

The more exasperating thing is criminals aspiring to - and gaining! - legislative office and trying to “legalize” their crimes via threats of violence.
Best take them seriously because thugs will be out in force if Agent Orange gains the throne.

 

[Gospel]

I believe Bilby hits the nail on the head regarding the need to rethink our approach to handling petty crimes. It's disheartening to see numerous instances where community activists present undeniable evidence, including video footage, only to experience rather underwhelming responses from law enforcement, which typically unfold as follows:

Officer: Do you know who he is?
Me: Yeah, it's Geoffrey, they also call him G off the Jit.
Officer: Where does he stay?
Me: Over in the Blue Sky apartments.
Officer: Ok I'll have another officer go take a look.
Me: Thanks. You know, I have a feeling he'll just end up back on the streets after his court appearance tomorrow. Do you think there's any possibility we could persuade the judge to assign him to community service with my team? We'd make sure he actually participates, and if not, you're more than welcome to come scoop him up again for a night at the county jail, until he commits to it. What do you think?
Officer: (Gives me that powerless look) "We can't do that sir".

 

[steve_bank]

Here in Seattle when policing of petty crime was reduced petty crime went up. My grocery store has multiple security guards and have been armed in the past.

People steal, get arraigned, released, and go back to rob the same store. I was enering the Walgreen;s in downtown Seattle and somebody on an E-scooter was going past the security guard with an armful of goods. The guard said he was not allowed to do anything.

Keep in mind in Seattle there is a labor shortage and we have the highest minimum wage in the country. There is a shortage of school and transit bus drivers that is having an impact.

The progressive empathy approach where nobody feels pressure is failing. It ignores human nature.

 

[Shadowy Man]

People steal, get arraigned, released, and go back to rob the same store. I was enering the Walgreen;s in downtown Seattle and somebody on an E-scooter was going past the security guard with an armful of goods. The guard said he was not allowed to do anything.

“Stop! Or I’ll say ‘stop’ again!”