*wraps her wings tightly around herself*
So far, Kyiv has held their ground, verifying my prediction. I love that city.
I have a feeling that the Russians are going to overestimate the cost of holding both Odessa and Kherson. I could picture them holding one of those cities for as much as several months, but attempting to hold both of those cities would not come cheap. I think it would just accelerate the eventual fatigue of their troops.
Now, it is possible that Putin could just concentrate his energy on consolidating his foothold in Kherson. If he concetrated his energy on holding just that one city plus his conquests in eastern Ukraine, he might be able to hold those areas long enough to establish strong enough de facto control over the territory that Ukraine would have to let them go upon entering NATO and the European Union. Those organizations would not want to take on contested territory that Ukraine was unable to reclaim control over, and they would not want to bring in Ukraine just for the sake of waging a war to lay claim to those territories. While this might all but guarantee Ukraine as a future NATO and EU member, Russia would also have also control over some strategic territory in the northern Black Sea. This works fine if Russia never intends to to have anything resembling an amicable relationship with the European Union or the United States for the remainder of the century, and while I can imagine better survival strategies than permanently destroying relations with your neighbors, it has advantages from the perspective of military strategy.
If Russia does not eventually narrow their focus, though, then I have a feeling they could lose the territorial gains they have already consolidated in both Crimea and eastern Ukraine. If the people that happen to live in Ukraine are given no alternative but to fight to the finish, then their resolve to preserve their independence and national identity probably outweighs Russian greed considerably. The trouble for Putin is that, once his forces started to turn and run, the Ukrainians would chase, and he would be lucky if they didn't try to march into Moscow and burn it to the ground. If they were lucky, they might let him go back to Russia with his country intact.
Anyhow, Putin has not YET destroyed all possible options that do not end in absolute disaster for himself and his country within his lifetime, but for him to actually get out of this situation with something he could delude himself into calling a win, he would have to narrow his focus and reorient himself toward consolidating whatever territory he can reasonably expect to hold.
I already felt that it was a stretch to expect that Ukraine would be able to hold onto all of their eastern territory, except maybe Mariupol with their famous "Babushka Battalion," but I think that the chances of Putin establishing a permanent foothold in places like Kyiv or Odessa are, to be frank, hilarious. Oh, I have no doubt that he could succeed at making the people in those areas hate Russians more than they already do, but the more that faithful Ukrainians are internally displaced by war, the more they are going to be concentrated in the more resilient parts of the country. I think that the prospects of Ukraine getting Crimea or any appreciable amount of territory in eastern Ukraine back would require Putin severely overplaying his hand (which might happen), and I also think that the prospects of Putin establishing total domination over Ukraine are unlikely as long as western support for Kyiv's government remains strong.
