How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[ZiprHead]

One more time, I watch exclusively youtube bloggers with ties to Ukraine.

That's a really stupid way to obtain information.

 

[marc]

Maddow had a segment showing a newsreel of the 1939 russian invasion of Finland. How a country of 180 million felt threatened by Finland's 4 million. (see, russia is into recycling, at least recycling their excuses for invasions)

From the wiki on that war:

Hostilities ceased in March 1940 with the signing of the Moscow Peace Treaty in which Finland ceded 9% of its territory to the Soviet Union. Soviet losses were heavy, and the country's international reputation suffered. Their gains exceeded their pre-war demands, and the Soviets received substantial territories along Lake Ladoga and further north. Finland retained its sovereignty and enhanced its international reputation. The poor performance of the Red Army encouraged German Chancellor Adolf Hitler to believe that an attack on the Soviet Union would be successful and confirmed negative Western opinions of the Soviet military.

 

[Elixir]

One more time, I watch exclusively youtube bloggers with ties to Ukraine.

That's a really stupid way to obtain information.

Sure, it’s dumb as shit if you want actual information, but it’s a brilliant way to feed your confirmation bias.
I can find lots of support for JFK Jr still being alive, alien abductions and virtually any other crackpot notion you can imagine.
Bloggers … incredible stupidity from someone who is NOT that stupid. He probably thinks everyone else here is too stupid to know how stupid it is to think “bloggers” are vetted sources.

 

[Jayjay]

Nobody could pick up the bodies because Russians shot everyone who went out. Duh.

Is this kind of shit your propaganda feeds you?

No, it's common sense.

Still, does not explain 4 days delay and very fresh corpses.

First you have to establish that there was a 4 day delay. I showed you an interview that the mayor that you detest so much talked about bodies. The first videos of the dead bodies are from April 1st, the same day when Ukrainian army returned (here and here, same place and time but from different cars. Not going to embed because they contain several dead bodies on the side of the road. There was no "delay" that you claim.

As for freshness (which I already addressed in another post but repetition doesn't hurt): The bodies in that footage or pictures I've seen elsewhere of people on the street don't look "fresh" at all to me, but the main point is that me, you, or the idiots on Russian TV that you get your information from are hardly experts on forensic medicine or what to expect. Quick googling shows that the bodies don't start to turn to mush until after a month or so.

 

[JohnG]

One more time, I watch exclusively youtube bloggers with ties to Ukraine.

That's a really stupid way to obtain information.

This isn’t lost on me either. I guess if you refuse to deal with reality, much like anti-vaxxers, Qanons, Illuminati, etc / then YouTube is your last refuge for “information”

 

[Jayjay]

On the other hand, there is the actual pictures, videos, satellite images, and witness statements saying that Russia did indeed murder civilians in Bucha. And the same thing was revealed to happen in other towns. "The mayor of Bucha" argument is weak compared to all the other corroborating evidence.

Utter garbage.
4 days delay, answer it.

Russia has thousands and thousand testimonies of people saying that Azov commited multiple war crimes.

The operative words are "Russia has...". Just like there were several testimonies in Russian propaganda after MH17 saying that they saw fighter jets shoot it down. 99% of the people the Russian propaganda trots on tv are just lying, or idiots who just believe what someone told them. It's not credible evidence.

That's not to say it's not possible that Azov or other Ukrainians have committed war crimes. It's basically unavoidable in war. But someone saying so on Russian propaganda channels isn't evidence. In fact, it's evidence that it probably didn't happen.

And the recent law against that kind of lies reporting anything contrary to Russian war propaganda has up to 15 years sentences. So technically these journalists can end up in prison if they decide to visit Russia in the future

Fixed that for you. This is why western journalists pulled most of their people away from Russia. But don't complain western journalists not reporting your side of the story, when you kick them out of the country and threaten them with prison sentences.

 

[Jayjay]

1. Dead bodies shown in satellite images weeks before.

Seriously. Are you on some kind of drugs?

Dodge noted.

Refuting Moscow’s claim, satellite images show bodies were in Bucha for weeks

Analysis of aerial close-ups indicates corpses lay in war-torn town for at least three weeks, while Russia continues to insist they appeared after its forces withdrew

www.timesofisrael.com

Bucha killings: Satellite image of bodies site contradicts Russian claims

Russia called footage of bodies in Bucha 'staged' but its evidence for this does not stack up.

www.bbc.com

Did the ninja nazi hacker squad infiltrate the American satellites first, and then set up the bodies in exactly the same positions afterwards, or did they do it afterwards and then just hoped that nobody would have saved the images?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

This is just another 9/11 CT'er or anti-evolution thread, where every refutation will be met with either aa stone wall or a diversion to another point that disproves things.

 

[Copernicus]

With all of the talk about genocide and atrocities, it is worth remembering where the talking points for the information war are coming from. As the saying goes, "the fish rots from the head down". Here is the perspective of a Ukrainian-American professor of political science regarding the way in which many Russians view their country's "special operation" in Ukraine:

Putin says I’m a Nazi, and Medvedev says I don’t exist​

We have seen this kind of rhetoric echoed by one of the posters in this thread, even to the point of refusing to call the war a war. Mariupol was a city where most people spoke only Russian, and Russia's claimed mission there was to support and protect Russian speakers. Nevertheless, their homes and their city were literally destroyed. Their citizens slaughtered or deported to Russia. Because they were either Nazis or nonexistent.

 

[bilby]

Actually, tear gas is not really banned by that convention.

Yes, it fucking is. As anyone who can read is able to confirm.

 

[Jayjay]

Fuck, stop acting as if it was not proven that ukrainian nazis are behind Bucha

FUCK! FUCK! FUCK! Stop acting like the murdering invaders of Ukraine are murdering, raping, and pillaging for just cause!

Even this stupid NAZI excuse is weak and pathetic.

View attachment 38089

When is Russia going to invade "liberate"this evil hotbed of NAZI activity?

Yeah, 25 year old pictures. Bill Clinton was a president and he was a big "friend" of Russia
You keep stepping in the same shit

There are more recent examples:

View attachment 38093

Or this guy:

Both example are from Donbas, the latter is from 2015 I believe. This is because FSB used Russian neo-nazis as cannon fodder early in the 2014 conflict: when arrested in Russia, they were given a choice between going to jail or to help prop up the "people's republics". Many nazis were recruited this way from ranks of RNU for example.

Both sides have a few card-carrying nazis fighting for them. Ukraine maybe more because in Russia it's not hip to openly glorify Hitler, but ideologically the Russian brand of fascism is much worse.

You were claiming that there were no nazis in Ukrainian army becasue their president was a black jew and ended with committing Tu quoque fallacy.

I never claimed there were no nazis in Ukrainian army. I only said that the nazis are a fringe group and they don't control the government. Or decide who gets to be president. There is a minor nazi problem in Ukraine, but it's vastly overblown by Russian propaganda. Russia's own nationalists are a far bigger problem. And under current circumstances, it's irrelevant: during wartime, it's practically irrelevant: A nazi can shoot at Ruskies as well as anyone, nobody is going to ask them about their political opinions when there is a country to defend.

The irony is that Azov wouldn't even exist without Russia's invasion in 2014. They were already waning and lost most of their members, and their fighters were incorporated into the regular army. But I'm sure that after their fierce defense of Mariupol, they'll become legendary and after the war neo-nazi elements may try to capitalize on that.

Yeah, there were reports of some russian nationalist (not neo-nazis) volunteers fighting in Eastern Ukraine in the early days of the conflict. Nothing new.
They were not associated with Russian army though. That ukrainian piece of shit nazi IS ukrainian army. The other badge suggests exactly that.

"Volunteers" recruited by the FSB. Sure believe whatever you want to.

The Azov battalion being incorporated into the regular army is a good thing. That means they are not longer controlled by the paramilitary nazi crackpots. They're trying to sweep the nazi-sympathizers under the rug in other ways too, like claiming that the Wolfsangel symbol is actually letter N and I for "national idea" or some shit. This means they're moderating. The individuals with SS patches and other nazi paraphernalia are outliers.

Before the war, the far-right Ukrainian parties were a minority. Now all nationalist parties will get a boost, but it remains to be seen if ultra-nationalists can translate it into actual votes. I think it's doubtful, because even after 2014 they completely flopped. Meanwhile in Russia, the fascist nationalist clique that runs the country is unlikely to be deposed of anytime soon.

Fact is, ukrainian army has shitload of nazis, and their "jew" presidents name streets after jew killers. They have to, otherwise they would have no country.

Meanwhile in Russia, fascist and Hitler-admirer  Ivan Ilyin gets a ceremonial re-burial and consecration by Vladimir Putin himself. It seems like for everything Russia blames Ukraine for, it has itself done the same if not worse.

 

[Elixir]

One more time, I watch exclusively youtube bloggers with ties to Ukraine.

That's a really stupid way to obtain information.

This isn’t lost on me either. I guess if you refuse to deal with reality, much like anti-vaxxers, Qanons, Illuminati, etc / then YouTube is your last refuge for “information”

No better education to be had anywhere.
Barbos has a PhD in “Comments Section”.

 

[Jayjay]

And your estimate that they were "fresh" is based on what exactly?

On experts looking at the pictures.

Just like I suspected. Some "expert" (although I think I used to word "asshat") on Russian TV whose opinion is based on nothing but blurry pictures.

No autopsies, no medical opinion, nothing of actual substance. And you can't even point out which pictures exactly; it matters because of course Russians didn't kill all 400+ people on the same day. Some are more fresh than others. The point here is that the bodies on the street that are visible on the satellite images do not look fresh at all (not any of the ones I've seen that have enough skin visible).

Autopsies and investigations as to e.g. how the people were shot will be done. But don't hold your breath, because investigations like this are painstakingly slow. MH17 investigation took years, and the court case is still going on after almost 8 years. But one thing's sure: some idiot on Russian propaganda outlets are not going to determine what's "fresh" enough.

And it does not even matter. There are tons of inconsistencies there.
I mean ukrainian fake-team could have acquired 2 weeks old corpses and used them.

You mean like Russians did in Donbas to justify the invasion? (And quickly forgot afterwards)

They couldn't even make it consistent with just a couple of bodies. There are over 400 victims in Bucha. Are you suggesting that the Azov brigades somehow "acquired" hundreds of dead bodies, snuck them into Bucha without anyone noticing, carefully placed them on the streets all over city, even buried some of them in graves, and convinced everyone in the town to go along with this plan?

Do you even realize how fucking stupid that sounds?

That would not change anything. Your stupid satellite images are irrelevant too.
These could have been flat out manufactured by the west.

Maxar is a private company, that doesn't just provide intelligence to US military, it also sells the images to the public. Anyone with enough dough can access them (presumably with some delay), even Russia and its apologists. To pull of this alleged fake, not only would everyone in the Ukrainian army that went to the town would have to be complicit, but also US military, CIA, Maxar employees, and everyone of their clients who might have downloaded the images.

And this globe-spanning massive conspiracy is somehow run nazi wannabes from Bumfuck, Ukraine and their Jew president, without anyone noticing or leaking?

They could have been real and with real bodies, and would still prove nothing.
They might had been there by the time of taking satellite picture. But they are certainly not the same bodies from the video taken 4 days after russians left.

So what? They're there demonstrably one day after the Russians left. The position of the bodies in the satellite image is the same as in the videos from April 1st that I linked. And why the fuck would they be different bodies? If Russians murdered people on the street, as shown in satellite images and drone footage, why would the Ukrainians need to clean up those bodies and then stage their own? Do you even think about what you're saying?

Only in Finland it is customary to let bodies to lie down for weeks in the center of the road. And only in Finland bodies do not decompose.

Finland isn't invaded by Russia (yet). Similar reports of dead bodies on the streets were reported in Mariupol and elsewhere since the beginning of the war. This isn't some fluke that happened just in Bucha, it's happening everywhere.

Do you know what most likely happened?
These "bodies" were found on satellite images by ukrainian nazi shitheads.
And they decided to stage "massacre"..... 4 days after russians left, not knowing that mayor had already posted his smiling video.
So they hired makeup artists from Palestine to do the whole thing and they did
And now, you are making a fool of yourself and losing any respect you might have with me.

So your best evidence for this conspiracy is that the mayor of Bucha smiled when the town was liberated, even though there were dead bodies? Come on now. If you were holed up in a cellar for a month under occupation, and then it ended, do you think you wouldn't be happy to get out, even if the experience was horrible? And he wouldn't have been able to know about all the atrocities, only the ones he saw happen personally. Some fatso's "smiling video" doesn't prove anything.

And then the idea that someone saw the bodies in the satellite, and decided to ... what, fake more bodies? Or the same bodies? First of all, that still makes Russia culpable for all the bodies in the satellite images. And second, why would there be a need to fake anything via "make up artists from Palestine", if Russia already committed a massacre in the town?

As for the satelite image bodies, don't know, could be russian or ukrainian soldiers.
Could be simply some kind of debris which looks like bodies.

Debris that just happens to be in exactly the same place as the bodies in the videos. And while the satellite resolution isn't sufficient, the video shows they are not soldiers.

Same thing with city hall bombing, everything is great, except the rocket is missing on 3 frames. That's it, end of story, video is fake, no amount of testimonies can change that.

As pointed out before (but maybe you missed it because you took a hiatus), it's missing in two frames. One is because the missile is obscured by the trees. And in the other frame one can clearly see that there is a shadow in the frame where the missile is supposed to be. Go back and have a look. There is no frame where the missile is missing entirely.

Most obvious explanation is that the frame rate on the CCTV footage and the cell phone are different. When upscaling from 24fps to 30fps, the frames are interpolated, which means a fast moving target like a missile would be mixed with the background.

I don't even understand why you would insist on sticking with this theory now that Russia has been shelling and firing missiles at Kharkiv for well over a month. Are all those hundreds of strikes staged too?

maternity ward - same thing - fake!

No, it's not. But I already addressed it in other post.

 

[ZiprHead]

Steven Seagal's chances of ever getting work in the US again gets a significant drop.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Steven Seagal's chances of ever getting work in the US again gets a significant drop.

Standard conspiracy thinking. Seagal actually says that he believes Putin loves Ukraine and Ukraine loves Russia, and that there is some super powerful outside influence manipulating the two sides into armed conflict. The poor guy just doesn't have a rational brain.

 

[Patooka]

The poor guy just doesn't have a rational brain.

Gene Lebell made Seagal shit his brains out years ago.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

That's not the alternative you suggest here. You suggest that russian government is dumb. Russian government is not interested in pictures of dead people in Ukraine.
It's ukrainian and US government who is interested in that.

Because the Russian government doesn't care about people. Not Ukrainians, not it's own.

Russian govenment is interested in "Everything is fine and we are the good guys and we are winning" pictures. Bombing pro-russian refugees clearly does not fit this strategy.

And they have the Russian people convinced the images are fakes.

Ukro-nazis on their way out simply bombed people they could not care less about.

Ukraine has been very sensible in it's targeting, hitting things that are militarily important. They wouldn't waste ammunition and especially sorties against civilians that aren't a threat.

They did not even plan to make it look like russians did it.
In fact they made an effort to look like it was them, yet somehow you ended blaming it on Russians.

It looks like a retaliation for Bucha.

That would mean that Bucha really was Russian action.

Now you have three bullets in your foot.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

What kind, indeed.

Do you think I am stupid?
Do you think I don't understand that when you start ignoring something it really means you actually admit that you lost?
I am pretty good at body language and reading people. That includes differences between cultures, well, at least russians versus americans.

The winner isn't determined by who repeats their position the most times.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Initial stage of this invasion was dumb and failure for the most part.
They clearly did not expect that level of resistance. This is very unfortunate, but when you ambush enemy forces inside the town, expect bad things happening to civilians.

In other words, Russia is guilty of war crimes. You don't shoot at civilians because enemy troops shot at you.

 

[marc]

Steven Seagal's chances of ever getting work in the US again gets a significant drop.

He even looks like a movie bad guy's chief henchman now.