How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Elixir]

The question is what do YOU expect? You were the one stating that "Nothing will be forced on Ukraine". Remember that?
It's why I reminded you that Putin invaded Ukraine unprovoked after lying about the preparations for the initial catastrophic failure...
It's war, dude. War is ALL ABOUT forcing things on people and nations.

I am not discussing why Ukraine and Russia are at war (which I have discussed elsewhere).

Yeah, you're pronouncing what would happen if Ukraine was stupid enough to believe Putin again. And you're wrong, QED.

Both Zelenskyy as well as Putin are in contact with Modi and he is trying to see if a cease-fire is possible.

WTF is Modi gonna do? What you suggest, i.e. convince Zelensky to surrender to Putin?
What a waste of time. Except for Russia - this bullshit benefits them immensely, giving them time to re-arm and bring in more No Korean cannon fodder.

Our interest is limited to just that.

You have no interest. This is just play acting.

Tell them to stop, then. All they have to do is go home. Ukraine never threatened them. "Feeling threatened" is a psychological state created and perpetuated by the Putin regime, and serves as a tortured excuse for territorial aggression.

Who has given us that authority?

You seem to think Modi has some authority, or you would be right there with me wondering WTF his meddling is expected to accomplish.

All countries have this psychological state.

Brilliant. You are hereby absolved of all wrongdoing... < sarcasm

Trump too called India/China relation as falling in deep darkness.

What Trump "calls" is more likely to be false than true. You really should stop listening to that rapist fraud.

"You don't need a weather man to know which way the wind blows" - Murkin Buddha

No. I am not Murkin Buddha.

You need not be. That's the point.

 

[bilby]

I have absolute, complete trust in Modi.

Only a fool has absolute, complete trust in anyone.

You are being foolish.

 

[Shadowy Man]

And you should never, ever, trust any politician who can sustain an approval rating over 50%; The only way to do that is to not support necessary (but unpopular) policies, and that's always a slow-motion disaster for any country.

It also usually implies supporting stupid but popular policies (eg xenophobia and authoritarianism*), which can make the disaster rather less slow.

Democracy should not be allowed to engender crass populism. That's why a strong constitution, and rigid separation of powers (ideally enshrined therein), are essential.
*Authoritarianism is always very popular with the supporters of the Leopards Eating Other People's Faces faction that arises wherever people are well off enough to be scared of petty crime.

Yes, Modi may make mistakes. He is human. But he would correct any mistake that he makes. I have absolute, complete trust in Modi.
I have differences with his policy. A huge amount of money has gone to public as freebies. That is uneconomic, but that is the compulsion of the democracy that we now have in India.

If you have "absolute, complete trust" in him, why would you have a difference with his policy? Don't you trust his policy?

 

[GenesisNemesis]

Reports of Poland shooting down some drones, confirmed by military.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/09/europe/poland-scramble-jets-russian-drone-reports-intl-hnk-ml

 

[aupmanyav]

It's why I reminded you that Putin invaded Ukraine unprovoked after lying about the preparations for the initial catastrophic failure...

Russian annexation of Crimea was not unprovoked. If the Ukranian leaders after Ynukovich were intelligent enough, they would have realized that tilting westward too much will alarm Russia.

 

[aupmanyav]

WTF is Modi gonna do? What you suggest, i.e. convince Zelensky to surrender to Putin?

That is your one-sided thinking. Do you think Modi will go only by what Putin says? Then just like the American administration, you have not understood Modi. Modi is a very independent person, no one can boss over him. That Zelenskyy contacted him, shows that he too has faith in Modi. Whether something good comes out of his mediation or not is another matter.

You have no interest. This is just play acting.

Perhaps having no interest other than peace between the two countries is an advantage. We are buying Russian oil now and we will continue buying Russian oil till the rates suit us.

 

[barbos]

It's why I reminded you that Putin invaded Ukraine unprovoked after lying about the preparations for the initial catastrophic failure...

Russian annexation of Crimea was not unprovoked. If the Ukranian leaders after Ynukovich were intelligent enough, they would have realized that tilting westward too much will alarm Russia.

You are giving too much credit to EU/US and ukro-nazis.
Just watch Aaron Maté interview I posted.
Everything went according to american neocons plan, initially (!!!)
They provoked everything and were fully aware what was going to happen. It's just they underestimated russian economy, millitary and overestimated the strength of russian so-called "opposition".
Ironically, Russia also underestimated strength of ukrainian-nazi and overestimated strength of pro-russian opposition in greater Ukraine when we "invaded". Credit have to be given to ukro-nazis, during initial "invasion", they were able to hold army together, while russian intelligence thought that it would dissolve like they did during 2014 Crimea.
Now, Sirsky admits that Russia has 3 times more men in Ukraine than he. India is lost to US, Brazil is the same, at least while Lula is a president. China laughs at Trump&Co. US hegemony is in deep shit.

 

[aupmanyav]

Just watch Aaron Maté interview I posted.

I do not have to go too deep into the causes. Russia and Ukraine are at war. Russia is a long-time friend, Ukraine is not an enemy. If our Prime Minister, with whom both the leaders are in touch, can help to resolve the conflict, we would be happy. EU leaders too are in circuit. Modi is not claiming all credit, as Trump is disposed to do. He is not a contender for nobel prize. He has the love of at least a billion Indians. I think, this is the general view in India.

 

[aupmanyav]

Brilliant. You are hereby absolved of all wrongdoing... < sarcasm

I should have said "most countries". Which are the countries which have no problem with other countries? Solomon Islands?
We have common borders with China, Pakistan, Bangladesh which may get an anti-Indian government in February, 2026. Then the Trump administration in the US, though he says he is a friend to India. We have had wars with the first two, that is our worry.

Only a fool has absolute, complete trust in anyone.
You are being foolish.

You have not come across a person like Modi.

If you have "absolute, complete trust" in him, why would you have a difference with his policy? Don't you trust his policy?

Why should I be a blind follower of Modi. I have my views about things. He is a theist, I am an atheist. I think beef ban is silly econonics. I think it is no use keeping those who have been awarded death sentence by Supreme Court alive at government's expense. If I were the Prime Minister, I would order 561 of such executed in a single day. He is wiser than me, that is why he is not doing such a thing. So differences can exist even if I have absolute/complete trust in Modi. Modi is not Aupmanyav.

Reports of Poland shooting down some drones, confirmed by military.

Not surprising. Perhaps that is how armaments come to Ukraine. Russia has to watch it.

 

[bilby]

It's why I reminded you that Putin invaded Ukraine unprovoked after lying about the preparations for the initial catastrophic failure...

Russian annexation of Crimea was not unprovoked. If the Ukranian leaders after Ynukovich were intelligent enough, they would have realized that tilting westward too much will alarm Russia.

As Ukraine is a sovereign nation, they shouldn't have to let a foreign country tell them who they can or cannot do business with, nor let a foreign country dictate the limits of what business they do.

Your position is nonsense, unless you START with the premise that Putin rules over Ukraine. This is not only false, but monstrous.

Ukraine can tilt in any direction the Ukrainian people want it to tilt, and if Putin wants it to tilt towards Russia, he has to persuade them to want that - to like Russia.

Big hint: Dropping bombs on people, and driving armoured columns into their territory, is a good way to make them dislike you.

 

[barbos]

As Ukraine is a sovereign nation,

Is Georgia a sovereign nation in your universe?
Or better, India?

 

[bilby]

Only a fool has absolute, complete trust in anyone.
You are being foolish.

You have not come across a person like Modi.

Are you kidding? All these personality cult leaders are alike. As are their blind followers, who invariably claim that their Dear Leader is unique.

Modi is just another populist tit, in an endless history of such.

 

[barbos]

Big hint: Dropping bombs on people, and driving armoured columns into their territory, is a good way to make them dislike you.

Well, that's what ukro-nazi did first, on the order of US.

 

[barbos]

Meanwhile rats are leaving the sinking ship called Ukraine. Former foreign minister of Ukraine Kuleba defected left Ukraine just before Elensky issuing decree forbidding traveling abroad for former diplomats.

 

[aupmanyav]

Ukraine can tilt in any direction the Ukrainian people want it to tilt, and if Putin wants it to tilt towards Russia, he has to persuade them to want that - to like Russia.

They did, and see the result. Modi did not agree to sit with Asim Munir at Trump's lunch and we are slapped with a 50% tariff.
Actions have consequences.

Modi is just another populist tit, in an endless history of such.

Modi is a 'faqir'. He will leave Prime Ministership with just two sets of clothes in his bag, probably in 2029. I do not know if he will stick around in politics to get a BJP win in 2029 (as an adviser - "marga darshak", those who show the way. Important BJP leaders are given this designation - that is to say honorably retired).

 

[bilby]

Modi is a 'faqir'.

It's spelled "faker", and your devotion to him is pathetic.

 

[aupmanyav]

It's spelled "faker", and your devotion to him is pathetic.

I am 83. I have seen a lot of politicians come and go. I understand things.

 

[Tigers!]

Russia has violated every peace agreement with Ukraine that it has signed. Ukraine would be crazy to sign any treaty with Russia that forced it to de-arm and give up defensive arms and strategic locations. Without peace keeping troops and massive amounts of defensive arms; Russia will invade again.

Nothing will be forced on Ukraine. That is Trump style. To Zelenskyy - 'Stop war or we don't send supplies'. To Putin - "Stop war or we increase sanctions'. Modi style is diplomacy. He is touch with Putin as well as Zelenskyy. He has consulted European leaders Macron, perhaps Germany too (Foreign Minister Jaishankar will be there on September 10-12. German Foreign Minister Wadephull was in India last week). I think both Russia and Ukraine have had enough. Let us see how it develops.

The only country benefiting from the war is Russia gaining land.

It is not certain that Russia will hold to all land that is under its control. It is your guess and may not necessarily be Putin's plan. Like I said, depends upon the type of peace agreement is signed.

I cannot recall any instance of Russian forces (incl. USSR) that have willingly returned terriority. If they step on it once they consider it theirs for perpituity.

USSR willingly returned Austria after WW2. Also USSR refused to take Bulgaria when they themselves asked to join USSR

The presence of Brit, French and US forces in western Austria of course had no impact on Stalin's decision. Plus Russia agreed in the Austrian State Treaty, signed 1955. Mind you that treaty took 8 years to sign because of Soviet instragience and only after Stalin's death.

Ukraine itself in its official borders is the result of USSR/Russia leaving it. It was bad idea, now we have to fix it.

Why not fix it by talking to Ukraine rather than bombing them? Jaw-jaw is better than war-war as Churchill noted.

 

[barbos]

The presence of Brit, French and US forces in western Austria of course had no impact on Stalin's decision.

Yes, it had no impact.

Why not fix it by talking to Ukraine rather than bombing them?

We tried that, they (US/GB) choose for Ukraine to fight.

 

[aupmanyav]

Is there any politician in the world who can leave the Prime Ministership of the fourth largest economy (4.2 trillion today, by the time he leaves in 2029, India would be world's third largest economy) for 15 years after the Chief Ministership of a prosperous state (Gujarat, fifth largest in India, GDP 23,000 billion) for 13 years with just two dresses in the bag and not a tinge of regret? Modi will do that. Can there be any other person more honest than him? Some one else would have made scores of billions in that time. Kindly understand why Modi is loved in India..