These discussions are particularly relevant today when the world has entered the post-bipolar stage in its development. At this stage, a more just polycentric, stable and democratic system is being established. I am aware of the disputes regarding whether this is good or bad. A unipolar or bipolar world was far more reliable as everything was clear and there was no room for improvisation. Now the world is a mess with everybody protecting their own interests, and there is no new understanding of how to proceed from here. Still, I agree with those who say that this is a period of perturbation which will eventually end. It will be lengthy. It is the beginning of a new era. These stages are never short. I have no doubt that as a result, we will get a more reliable and secure system that allows countries to use its opportunities for their economic and social development. Although I do not know who will be around to check to see that it is so, since it will happen in several decades.
However, it appears to me that the most important thing now is to watch the re-configuration of the global geopolitical landscape, which is happening in two ways. One is natural as new centres of economic growth and financial power emerge, bringing political influence. These centres are starting to see the benefit in unifying based on the demands of the present and future, their people and countries. This is how the RIC association (Russia, India and China) started. The next RIC ministerial meeting will be held in China the day after tomorrow. BRICS also emerged naturally. The SCO was also created in response to demands of the time when, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, it was necessary to provide some understanding of border security in Central Asia, Russia and China. Subsequently, the SCO expanded to other forms of cooperation. But once again, it was a response to demands of the time. This is also how ASEAN was formed by ten countries (it started with less than ten) that realised their mutual interest was in working together and promoting economic and security cooperation.
Unlike these natural processes, there are attempts to reconfigure the geopolitical landscape in order to prevent the natural course of things and the emergence of new centres of growth. For example, the Middle East Strategic Alliance, the so-called Middle Eastern NATO which US President Donald Trump’s administration, working to overcome the serious doubts of potential participants, is trying to impose on the countries of the Persian Gulf, Jordan and Egypt. Of course, Israel is also guarding its interests when it comes to this initiative.
The Indo-Pacific region is another artificially imposed construct which I just discussed with the Deputy Foreign Minister of Vietnam. The United States, along with Japan and Australia, has begun to promote this within the far-reaching context of containing China. This is a clear attempt to get India involved in military-political and naval processes. This concept undermines the ASEAN-centricity of the formats that have been created in that region. So, ASEAN is now thinking about how to respond to these developments.
In this portion of my remarks, I would like to contradistinguish natural processes that integrate countries based on coinciding interests, from artificial ones which try to force countries into some kind of cooperation in the interest of one geopolitically driven power. We would like our respect for peoples’ determining their own future to manifest itself in our approaches to the processes unfolding in this region and the rest of the world.
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In Northeast Asia, the situation is not simple, primarily due to the Korean Peninsula nuclear issues. But our goal is much broader, in the context of long-term stabilisation – to develop a mechanism of peace and security in Northeast Asia. This is one of the goals that was agreed upon during the six-party talks on the Korean nuclear issue, when they still worked. Now they are frozen, but their potential should certainly be kept in mind. I hope that if there is progress via bilateral channels between the United States and North Korea, the six-party format can become very useful, primarily when it comes to the subject of peace and security. This is exactly what the Russian-Chinese roadmap is about, the one we proposed in summer 2017 during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to the Russian Federation. We proposed a step-by-step movement – first build confidence and avoid provocative actions such as nuclear tests, missile launches from North Korea, or large-scale disproportionate naval and air exercises the US and South Korea resorted to. Then, as confidence grows, time will come to make contacts, put offers on the table, search for a balance of interests and act synchronously, action for action – your partner has met you halfway, now it’s your turn to take a step towards the partner. At the last stage, the Russian-Chinese roadmap should turn into a security mechanism for Northeast Asia so that all six countries in and around the region feel secure knowing there is a reliable agreement.
This “action for action” logic is now beginning to catch on in Washington, at least, our Deputy Foreign Minister’s contacts with his American counterpart show that the Americans even ask us for advice or opinions on various scenarios of what will happen in a couple of days in Hanoi.
