The Race For 2024

[southernhybrid]

I'm a lot more compassionate. Trump is a severely mentally ill, deranged man suffering from dementia. He can't help who he is since I don't think we have free will. So I'd put him in a nursing home with a lock down memory care unit. Then I'd give him a little sign that says president or king and let him watch his old rallies all day. Melania would have to come to visit and help change his diapers.

The primary goal is to keep Trump from ever entering the Whitehouse again. OMG, I'm watching one of his extremist commercials. Maybe he should at least get a little bit of prison time, before he totally loses his short term memory and then we can transfer him to the nursing home. Nursing homes these days aren't much bette than prisons, sadly.

 

[Rhea]

I'm a lot more compassionate. Trump is a severely mentally ill, deranged man suffering from dementia. He can't help who he is since I don't think we have free will. So I'd put him in a nursing home with a lock down memory care unit.

This is why you’re one of my favorite people. <3 Modeling the step back for compassion. You’re right, there is no need to punish. Simply to protect society from him.

Then I'd give him a little sign that says president or king and let him watch his old rallies all day. Melania would have to come to visit and help change his diapers.

Steven Miller has to change the diapers, on weekends. And Elon Musk on the night shift. And the Saudi government at lunch.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I'm a lot more compassionate. Trump is a severely mentally ill, deranged man suffering from dementia.

Who should still be held responsible for what he and his worshippers have done.

 

[Elixir]

And...?

I'm starting to wonder if Trump will still be the Republican candidate come November.

Change the name is that sentence from Trump to Biden and Republican to Democrat and y0u have Biden c. July 2024.

... and?
Biden is no longer on the ticket. Are you implying that Trump will be gone in September?
WHOTHEHELL are they going to put up in his place, Hannibal Lechter?

 

[Elixir]

OMFG this is getting ugly!



So those are some VERY conflicted findings, apparently The most balanced one is the one with the biggest margin - weird.
But they are all consistently WAY bigger margins than I ever saw for Trump vs Biden.

Several months ago when I opened up Predictit for the first time in years, it still had a $9 and change balance. I can't withdraw it because the credit card I used to open the acct is long gone, I don't even know what it was - it had my old Company email address. So I couldn't access the funds but I could bet with the $9. So I bought 70 shares (meaning max payout if correct is $70) of "Electoral College, Dems by 65-104". It has been bouncing around now at around .20-.22/share. Considering selling it, but think I'll hold out for the big bucks!
That account started back in 2016. IIRC I bet something like $10 that Bernie would win Michigan in the Dem Primary very early on, and won like $55. I proceeded to win until the balance was around $90, then lost most of it and eventually lost interest and forgot about it. Now, if I can get the balance into triple digits, it might be worth going through the hoops to withdraw it!

 

[Politesse]

I could see the Republican nomination going to Biden. A little change of heart, a few weepies for the camera. He did strongly support a lot of Trump's reforms to the office of the presidency and the running of the various executive departments, even expanded several of the most onerous (and blatantly illegal) Trump era rules. Yes, they played up their "opposition" to one another these last few years, but so did Trump and Vance, until suddenly they didn't. Old enemies can become friends, especially if their personal and financial interests align. It's all show biz, baby.

 

[Elixir]

I'm a lot more compassionate. Trump is a severely mentally ill, deranged man suffering from dementia. He can't help who he is since I don't think we have free will.

TBH that's why I said we should put him in a rubber room and tell him he's the Emperor of All Existence.
All sarcasm aside, I do NOT desire to be party to someone else's avoidable suffering, period. That he DOES so desire, is in large part why I despise the man.

 

[Swammerdami]

So those are some VERY conflicted findings, apparently The most balanced one is the one with the biggest margin - weird.
But they are all consistently WAY bigger margins than I ever saw for Trump vs Biden.

The Harris-Trump differential at Predictit is much bigger than at Betfair or Polymarket. Two factors to consider:
(1) The nationality of bettors. I think Betfair may be mostly British, with Predictit American. (???)
(2) The total action. Polymarket shows $61 Million total on Harris (I suppose this includes both Back and Lay tickets), and $72 Million on Trump. (What is total action on an NFL game?) Betfair shows only $61 Million total, and that includes bets on others. IIRC Predictit limits action severely to comply with U.S. law; but low-action gambling is less good for prediction.

Instead of Backing Harris; one can Lay Trump -- almost equivalent. That tends to normalize the numbers.

Several years ago a professional gambler posted to another message-board about a sure-thing wager he had constructed. IIRC He Backed Romney at one gambling site and Layed him at anothr site.

 

[Elixir]

I get that if one can find sufficient discrepancy between markets (enough to cover The House’s cut and still make a dime) one can do that. But one would have to wait for the actual outcome to collect, (at least on Predictit) and I question whether the crumbs that fall off the table that way are much more than say, what a CD would yield over the same period - without the brain damage.

As a predictor, Predictit sucks. But as an opinion trend monitor it’s pretty reliable. I think all opinion trends are amplified there beyond reason - there’s an actual community of betters with all the personal vitriol and contentiousness that entails, and they constitute the bulk of the $$ bet on any given day.

 

[southernhybrid]

I'm a lot more compassionate. Trump is a severely mentally ill, deranged man suffering from dementia. He can't help who he is since I don't think we have free will.

TBH that's why I said we should put him in a rubber room and tell him he's the Emperor of All Existence.
All sarcasm aside, I do NOT desire to be party to someone else's avoidable suffering, period. That he DOES so desire, is in large part why I despise the man.

I understand that, but my more rational, compassionate side doesn’t think a severely mentally ill person, especially one who is in old age, should be placed in a prison.
Society needs to protected from such people, but it can be done in more humane ways than how we currently treat them.

One more thing….psychopaths are victims of a disease of the frontal cortex, so we need to keep them away from the rest of us, but we don’t need to act like them by treating them th same way they treat others. That’s too much like an eye for an eye. I’m sure you probably agree with me, but I do understand why you despise Trump. It’s sad how he has been able to manipulate so many people who don’t see him as a threat.

 

[southernhybrid]

I'm a lot more compassionate. Trump is a severely mentally ill, deranged man suffering from dementia.

Who should still be held responsible for what he and his worshippers have done.

We could start with the Republicans who refused to remove him from office when he was impeached. That way, he would no longer be qualified to run for president.

 

[Elixir]

I understand that, but my more rational, compassionate side doesn’t think a severely mentally ill person, especially one who is in old age, should be placed in a prison.

You’re serious, SoHy??
Let me assure you; literal rubber rooms are so passé. Outside of Guantanamo, I’m not sure they even exist.

Trump MUST be imprisoned after he tries again to violently overthrow the Government.
I don’t care if he’s penned up at Mar a Lago or Jeffrey’s Lolita island, as long as he is penned up.

Society needs to protected from such people

Right. So, no public communications channels. I don’t care how luxuriously he decorates his prison.

 

[lpetrich]

CNN Presidential Debate: President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump - YouTube
READ: Biden-Trump debate transcript | CNN Politics

Harris Used to Worry About Laughing. Now Joy Is Fueling Her Campaign. - The New York Times - "Democrats are smiling again, and so is a vice president who once weighed the political risks of cheerfulness. The high spirits are also providing air cover for scathing attacks on Republicans."

There was a time, early in her vice presidency, when Kamala Harris, aware of reams of conservative news coverage criticizing her laughter, privately wondered to confidants whether she should laugh, or show a sense of humor, at all.

They reassured her that she should, according to two people familiar with the discussions at the time. Still, Ms. Harris proceeded gingerly, embarking on a run of tightly controlled appearances. She focused on issues like abortion rights and worked to bolster her foreign policy chops. She took emotionally resonant trips during which she carefully honed her image. Along the way, laughter never really left her.

So it is no accident that joy — a battle-tested version of it — has become the backbone of Ms. Harris’s campaign in recent days.

...
“The one thing I will not forgive them for is they try to steal the joy from this country,” Mr. Walz, who has so far presented himself as something of a walking bear hug, said on Wednesday in Detroit. “But you know what? Our next president brings the joy. She emanates the joy.”

... But there is also, as Ms. Harris might say, the context of all that came before: This period of almost feverish enthusiasm for her campaign is reliant on the comparable lack of excitement for President Biden, an unpopular leader who left the race only after an uprising within his own party.

Something like Ronald Reagan and "Morning in America".

 

[lpetrich]

Harris and Walz seize on joyful message in contrast to darker Trump themes - The Washington Post

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is joyous about the joy.

“All the things that make me mad about those other guys and all the things they do wrong, the one thing I will not forgive them for is they tried to steal the joy from this country. They try and steal the joy,” Walz, the Democrats’ newly selected vice-presidential nominee, said at a boisterous Detroit Metro Airport rally Wednesday for his running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris. “But you know what? You know what? Our next president brings the joy! She emanates the joy!”

...
Former president Donald Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, are offering a dark and dystopian vision of Democratic rule, running an operation laden with name-calling and trolling and rife with grievance. Their calculation is that the country believes things are way off track and that their darker message will resonate with how voters see reality.

Harris and Walz, meanwhile, are offering a sunnier vision and tone. Gone are Biden’s sober exhortations about the battle for the soul of the nation and a democracy under attack; in its place are promises of “freedom” and “a brighter future” and, at times, audible giggles and laughter.

In effect, something to fight for, not just a dreary battle against some enemy.

When parrying Trump’s attacks, Harris has toggled between almost dismissive boredom and defiant amusement — a sort of can-you-believe-this-guy brushback seemingly designed to irk the former president.

...
A day earlier, at a rally in Atlanta, Harris seemed to relish teasing Trump, noting, “So he won’t debate, but he and his running mate sure seem to have a lot to say about me.

“Well, Donald,” she continued, “I do hope you’ll reconsider to meet me on the debate stage, because as the saying goes: ‘If you’ve got something to say, say it to my face.’”

Something like Ronald Reagan saying  There you go again to Jimmy Carter when JC said that RR was threatening Social Security.

 

[lpetrich]

Also like this on what the Green New Deal might be like: A Message From the Future With Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez - YouTube

The Trump campaign, for its part, began Wednesday morning with a fundraising email titled, “The world has gone to s--- in the last 2 weeks!” Inside, the missive warned that “the stock market is CRASHING! Unemployment is RISING! Wars in the Middle East are spiraling OUT OF CONTROL!” — and all the while “Kamala is asleep at the switch.”

In his TS tweets, he referred to "Liddle’ George" "Slopadopolus", "Crazy Kamabla", along with Tim Walz, "the most RADICAL Left duo in American history". Also that "Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST president in the history of the U.S.," was planning to take back the Democratic Presidential nomination, which he claimed was "Unconstitutionally STOLEN from him by Kamabla" in a "COUP".

In a recent speech, Trump described crimes, riots, and lots of other social ills, concluding with “We are a nation in decline. We are a failing nation. We are a nation that has lost its confidence, lost its willpower and lost its strength.”

That's the sort of thing that right-wingers would normally consider unpatriotic.

 

[southernhybrid]

I understand that, but my more rational, compassionate side doesn’t think a severely mentally ill person, especially one who is in old age, should be placed in a prison.

You’re serious, SoHy??
Let me assure you; literal rubber rooms are so passé. Outside of Guantanamo, I’m not sure they even exist.

Trump MUST be imprisoned after he tries again to overthrow the Government.
I don’t care if he’s penned up at Mar a Lago or Jeffrey’s Lolita island, as long as he is penned up.

Society needs to protected from such people

Right. So, no public communications channels. I don’t care how luxuriously he decorates his prison.

I understand that, but my more rational, compassionate side doesn’t think a severely mentally ill person, especially one who is in old age, should be placed in a prison.

You’re serious, SoHy??
Let me assure you; literal rubber rooms are so passé. Outside of Guantanamo, I’m not sure they even exist.

Trump MUST be imprisoned after he tries again to violently overthrow the Government.
I don’t care if he’s penned up at Mar a Lago or Jeffrey’s Lolita island, as long as he is penned up.

Society needs to protected from such people

Right. So, no public communications channels. I don’t care how luxuriously he decorates his prison.

That's fine. I already said I'd be fine with him in a nursing home that had a lock down memory unit. There is one in a small facility in my town. I asked for a tour of it once. The inmates, I mean residents, were given good care and they could go outside, but only out the door that was surrounded by a very high fence that they were unable to climb. All the other doors were locked for their own safety. While Trump wouldn't like this, the activity director told me she brought a pet to the place everyday to interact with the residents. Too bad not all long term facilities, including most prisons weren't more like that place.

I'm more into rehab and/or protecting society when someone commits a crime, instead of cruel and unusual. punishment, which is supposed to be against our constitution, isn't it? I think prisoners who are in their 80s are no longer a threat to society, but if they are a threat like Trump, they can be kept in a safe, humane place, like that memory care unit.

I don't have a problem having prisoners do reasonable types of labor, in exchange for reduced sentences and at least being paid the minimum wage, that could be put in an account for them upon release. I doubt they are paid, but Georgia has a program where such prisoners are referred to as trustees. The indoor jobs are pretty easy, much better than sitting in a cell all day.

If Trump were such a trustee, maybe he could be used to work at the animal shelter. Oh wait. That might be too cruel to the poor animals who are as if they were prisoners. Can you imagine Trump cleaning up after shelter dogs?

 

[Elixir]

Can you imagine Trump cleaning up after shelter dogs?

No, but I can imagine him feeding them. Or rather, them feeding on him.

 

[lpetrich]

Opinion | Harris is beating Trump by transcending him - The Washington Post

The sudden and radical shift in the trajectory of the 2024 campaign owes to more than the replacement of President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate. To a degree that’s still not fully appreciated, Harris has embraced an entirely new strategy: She’s not just pushing back against Donald Trump’s politics of cultural division. She’s bidding to transcend it.

Choosing Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate reinforces the move away from clichés about “coastal politics” and “cultural elites.”

Republicans like to bash "coastal elites" even though they are often a part of those same elites. People who went to Harvard Law School, for instance, or were Silicon Valley venture capitalists. Why TW is such a curveball for them is because he seems too much like their idea of a Real American.

JD Vance is still using Republicans' typical sort of attack, however. He

attacked the camo-wearing, gun-owning, small-town Midwestern schoolteacher as a “San Francisco-style liberal.”

 

[southernhybrid]

Opinion | Harris is beating Trump by transcending him - The Washington Post

The sudden and radical shift in the trajectory of the 2024 campaign owes to more than the replacement of President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate. To a degree that’s still not fully appreciated, Harris has embraced an entirely new strategy: She’s not just pushing back against Donald Trump’s politics of cultural division. She’s bidding to transcend it.

Choosing Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate reinforces the move away from clichés about “coastal politics” and “cultural elites.”

Republicans like to bash "coastal elites" even though they are often a part of those same elites. People who went to Harvard Law School, for instance, or were Silicon Valley venture capitalists. Why TW is such a curveball for them is because he seems too much like their idea of a Real American.

JD Vance is still using Republicans' typical sort of attack, however. He

attacked the camo-wearing, gun-owning, small-town Midwestern schoolteacher as a “San Francisco-style liberal.”

You and I must read a lot of the same articles. I read that one this morning too. it's ironic that JD Vance and Trump are claiming that it's Harris and Walz who are the coastal liberal elites.

 

[Swammerdami]

That's the sort of thing that right-wingers would normally consider unpatriotic.

"Right-winger"?? Intelligent patriotic right-wingers, e.g. Liz Cheney, have abandoned the lying hate-drenched fascists.

The "left-right" axis in American politics has lost relevance.
The present political divides are 100+ IQ vs 99- IQ.; mentally healthy vs drug-crazed; etc.
And Strong America vs "If we help Vladimir Putin, he'll help our political Party."

ETA: And perhaps key of all:
Good-spirited people vs Hate-filled bigots