The Race For 2024

[Swammerdami]

PS
Does anyone know the source of the term 'trumped-up'? Wikipedia didn't have it.

My two go-to sites for etymology seem to disagree with each other:

Possibly from French triomphe (“triumph”) or Old French triumphe. If so, it is a doublet of triumph and thriambus. Compare German Trumpf.
...
Verb
...
4.(transitive, dated) To impose unfairly; to palm off.
[quotation:]
1699, Charles Leslie, A Short and Easy Method with the Deists:
Authors have been trumped upon us.

trump (v.2)

"fabricate, devise," 1690s, from earlier trump "deceive, cheat, impose upon" (late 14c.), from Old French tromper "to deceive," a word of uncertain origin.

This is sometimes said to be from se tromper de "to mock," from Old French tromper "to blow a trumpet." Brachet explains this as "to play the horn, alluding to quacks and mountebanks, who attracted the public by blowing a horn, and then cheated them into buying ...."

 

[Politesse]

You know, I always assumed it was a gaming reference, as in "played the trump card", which is a direct borrowing from French triomphe, but I would be interested to learn the real answer to the question.

 

[bilby]

It would take something on the order of a nuclear war for the entire stock market to fail

I was not aware of a nuclear war in 1929. Or in 1987, or 1992, or 2000 for that matter.

The only thing preventing a similar collapse today is that, as famous economist Irving Fisher observed, “stock prices have reached 'what looks like a permanently high plateau.'”

Stock market failures are so routine that economists have a euphemism "correction" to describe them.

That the markets ultimately recover is not on any way a denial of the fact that they did indeed fail.

 

[Elixir]

Those are retreats, not failures. It (the market, not particular issues) always has returned to fight another day.
Almost as reliably as real estate, which, being real and all, is truly hard to beat.

 

[bilby]

Does anyone know the source of the term 'trumped-up'? Wikipedia didn't have it.

It apparently derives from Middle English 'trump' meaning 'deceive or cheat'; The OED has the first use of 'trumped up' meaning 'with deceitful and dishonest embellishment' in the early C18th.

One plausible source is the Old French 'tromper', which seems to derive the meaning of 'deceive' or 'cheat' from a phrase meaning 'to mock' (baillier la trompe - blow the trumpet), either after the practice of drowning out a speaker who is making a fool of himself, or of the use of trumpets by jesters and fools.

Another possibilty is a link to 'triumph', which likely is the basis of the use of 'trump' for card games such as Bridge. To win (by stepping outside the normal rules, or invoking a higher, or even ficticious, rule) is to 'trump'; Getting from there to 'trumped up' meaning 'to charge someone unfairly in order to win in court', is not a huge stretch.

 

[bilby]

Those are retreats, not failures.

No, they are 'corrections'. But whichever euphemism you prefer, they are not successes. A rose by any other name would smell as sweet*.











*"Not if you called them 'Stenchblossoms', or 'Crapweeds'. I'd sure hate to get a dozen crapweeds for Valentines Day" - Homer

 

[Elixir]

But whichever euphemism you prefer, they are not successes. A rose by any other name would smell as sweet*.

Some other names: investment, business, enterprise, venture …
There are no guarantees. Mostly because of lifespan limits.

 

[bilby]

Some other names: investment, business, enterprise, venture …

If you think these are synonymous with failure, crash, correction, or retreat, then I strongly recommend that you avoid the markets altogether

 

[Elixir]

failure, crash, correction, and retreat

Are all possibilities in any investment, business, enterprise, venture …

That doesn’t make them synonymous any more than typhoon is synonymous with weather.

 

[unapologetic]

To win (by stepping outside the normal rules, or invoking a higher, or even ficticious, rule) is to 'trump';

Yeah this fits the Don very well.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I also resent your claim that I am paying “lip service” to Hamas atrocities. I have and do fully condemn them.

Yet you blame Israel for the atrocity that Hamas engineered in Gaza and we are seeing play out. The atrocity they are using to try to get the world to stop Israel.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Why does your Ilk never have anything bad to say about them?

Please stop your bullshit. I, others here, and many, many others protesting against Israel have indeed condemned the atrocities committed by Hamas on Oct. 7. Your misrepresentations of others is as disgusting as RVonse’s racist slurs on other topics.

You pay lip service to the ongoing Hamas atrocities and keep blaming Israel for conducting war in an exemplary fashion.

Exemplary fashion? Hamas still exists, Hamas still has many hostages. Lots of civilians are dead. I'm unimpressed at this exemplary fashion. You can skull fuck the numbers all you want, it has been 11 months since hell fell upon Israel, and Israeli progress against Hamas is questionable at best while hostages are still in captivity, providing a hell only they and their families can understand.

Who has done better? Anywhere, anytime? Who has even come close to as low a civilian:combatant ratio in rooting forces out of a city that has not been evacuated?

Nobody, that's who.

And that's not even considering the tunnels and the human shield tactics.

 

[Elixir]

Who has done better?

Better at what? Killing civilians? Pol Pot, Hitler, Stalin … In the big picture, Bibi is an also ran. But he’s right now, and he is like, 8x ahead of Hamas in the body count game.

Nobody, that's who.

By WHAT contorted metric, other than gross body count?

 

[Shadowy Man]

l

Who has done better? Anywhere, anytime? Who has even come close to as low a civilian:combatant ratio in rooting forces out of a city that has not been evacuated?

Nobody, that's who.

And that's not even considering the tunnels and the human shield tactics.

So , since they are doing so well should we expect them to soon be achieving their military goals? It’s been almost a year now and how close are they to their goals?

 

[ZiprHead]

FOP Endorses Trump! - Fraternal Order of Police

Patrick Yoes, National President of the Fraternal Order of Police, announced today that the members of the FOP voted to endorse Donald J. Trump for President of the United States. […]

fop.net

WASHINGTON, DC - Patrick Yoes, National President of the Fraternal Order of Police, announced today that the members of the FOP voted to endorse Donald J. Trump for President of the United States.

“Public safety and border security will be important issues in the last months of this campaign,” Yoes said. “Our members carefully considered the positions of the candidates on the issues and there was no doubt—zero doubt—as to who they want as our President for the next four years: Donald J. Trump.”

The FOP’s endorsement process is unique in that every member has the opportunity, through our 46 State Lodges, to make their choice known to the National Trustee. Once informed by the membership as to their choice, the National Trustee casts his or her vote at our National Board meeting. In order to secure our endorsement, the candidate needs the support of two-thirds of the State Lodges, a benchmark former President Trump easily cleared.

"During his first term, President Trump made it clear he supported law enforcement and border security,” Yoes said. “In the summer of 2020, he stood with us when very few would. With his help, we defeated the ‘defund the police’ movement and, finally, we are seeing crime rates decrease. If we want to maintain these lower crime rates, we must re-elect Donald Trump.”

 

[laughing dog]

FOP Endorses Trump! - Fraternal Order of Police

Patrick Yoes, National President of the Fraternal Order of Police, announced today that the members of the FOP voted to endorse Donald J. Trump for President of the United States. […]

fop.net

WASHINGTON, DC - Patrick Yoes, National President of the Fraternal Order of Police, announced today that the members of the FOP voted to endorse Donald J. Trump for President of the United States.

“Public safety and border security will be important issues in the last months of this campaign,” Yoes said. “Our members carefully considered the positions of the candidates on the issues and there was no doubt—zero doubt—as to who they want as our President for the next four years: Donald J. Trump.”

The FOP’s endorsement process is unique in that every member has the opportunity, through our 46 State Lodges, to make their choice known to the National Trustee. Once informed by the membership as to their choice, the National Trustee casts his or her vote at our National Board meeting. In order to secure our endorsement, the candidate needs the support of two-thirds of the State Lodges, a benchmark former President Trump easily cleared.

"During his first term, President Trump made it clear he supported law enforcement and border security,” Yoes said. “In the summer of 2020, he stood with us when very few would. With his help, we defeated the ‘defund the police’ movement and, finally, we are seeing crime rates decrease. If we want to maintain these lower crime rates, we must re-elect Donald Trump.”

The police support a convicted felon for POTUS? And they wonder why their support and popularity are in decline.

 

[Elixir]

Who has done better?

Better at what? Killing civilians? Pol Pot, Hitler, Stalin … In the big picture, Bibi is an also ran. But he’s right now, and he is like, 8x ahead of Hamas in the body count game.

Nobody, that's who.

By WHAT contorted metric, other than gross body count?

It's usually measured in civilian:combatant ratio.

Then your “data” is junk.

 

[Swammerdami]

Those are retreats, not failures. It (the market, not particular issues) always has returned to fight another day.
Almost as reliably as real estate, which, being real and all, is truly hard to beat.

Be careful though! It is American aggregate stock prices which have always (so far) recovered. Setting aside some dismal performance almost a century ago, there has NEVER been a bad time to buy American stocks and hold them for the long term.

German stocks, OTOH, are a different matter. For most of a century -- the late 1800's and early 1900's -- there was NEVER a GOOD time to buy German stocks for the long term.

Despite a boom beginning in 2013, the Japanese stock average is currently BELOW its 1989 high. This 35-year delay is longer than 1929 survivors needed to wait for the NYSE to recover. Shanghai's SSE composite trades at less than half its 2007 high. Europe's STOX600 is up only 26% from its 2007 high -- that's an average of 1.4% annual appreciation. And so on.

Conclusion: The meme 'investing in stocks is always good' needs to have the adjective 'American' inserted for accuracy.

AND Past Performance is NOT a Guarantee of Future Results.

And WHY have American stocks performed well? American governance has been renowned (compared with other countries) for intelligence, minimal corruption, and respect for freedom, human rights and democracy. BUT in regard to future American governance let me repeat: Past Performance is NOT a Guarantee of Future Performance.

 

[Elixir]

Those are retreats, not failures. It (the market, not particular issues) always has returned to fight another day.
Almost as reliably as real estate, which, being real and all, is truly hard to beat.

Be careful though! It is American aggregate stock prices which have always (so far) recovered. Setting aside some dismal performance almost a century ago, there has NEVER been a bad time to buy American stocks and hold them for the long term.

German stocks, OTOH, are a different matter. For most of a century -- the late 1800's and early 1900's -- there was NEVER a GOOD time to buy German stocks for the long term.

Despite a boom beginning in 2013, the Japanese stock average is currently BELOW its 1989 high. This 35-year delay is longer than 1929 survivors needed to wait for the NYSE to recover. Shanghai's SSE composite trades at less than half its 2007 high. Europe's STOX600 is up only 26% from its 2007 high -- that's an average of 1.4% annual appreciation. And so on.

Conclusion: The meme 'investing in stocks is always good' needs to have the adjective 'American' inserted for accuracy.

AND Past Performance is NOT a Guarantee of Future Results.

And WHY have American stocks performed well? American governance has been renowned (compared with other countries) for intelligence, minimal corruption, and respect for freedom, human rights and democracy. BUT in regard to future American governance let me repeat: Past Performance is NOT a Guarantee of Future Performance.

Well said.
The “minimal corruption” part is key.
If Trump gains office, I will be retreating to safer interest bearing accounts that basically keep pace with (current) inflation.

 

[unapologetic]

Know this: RUMP is in favor of the war, if it helps get him elected. So don't use the war as a guide to how you vote. Your vote will not make any difference in the war. And Rump will still be a disaster for the US.

This thread is a useless place to debate war.