The Race For 2024

[thebeave]

Democratic strategists are urging a “don’t panic” response to a series of opinion polls that reveal deep worries over Joe Biden’s age and his ability to beat Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election. A CNN survey conducted by SSRS caused shockwaves this week when it put Biden’s approval rating at just 39% and found two in three Democrats say the party should nominate someone else next year. The findings echoed a Wall Street Journal poll that found 73% of voters say Biden, 80, is “too old to run for president”

Teh Gruaniad

Biden will either be eased out or he will be unable to run.

Oh joy, Kamala Harris and Insufferable prick Gavin Newsom to the rescue.

Yeah, it gets worse every day for Joey B every time he opens his mouth. To top off his Grandpa Simpson-esque speech in Vietnam, he regaled his audience with a 9/11 speech in Alaska where he claimed to have been at the World Trade Center site on 9/12 "looking through the gates of hell", when in fact, there is video showing him giving a speech in Congress on 9/12. Seems even the progressive Young Turks have turned their backs on him and are calling him a "lying dog-faced pony soldier" not just for this latest bungle, but all his past lies/misrememberies:

 

[TSwizzle]

Yeah, it gets worse every day for Joey B every time he opens his mouth. To top off his Grandpa Simpson-esque speech in Vietnam, he regaled his audience with a 9/11 speech in Alaska where he claimed to have been at the World Trade Center site on 9/12 "looking through the gates of hell", when in fact, there is video showing him giving a speech in Congress on 9/12. Seems even the progressive Young Turks have turned their backs on him and are calling him a "lying dog-faced pony soldier" not just for this latest bungle, but all his past lies/misrememberies:

Brandon is full of tall tales. (Well, full of something)

Brandon was rambling about some John Wayne movie scene that doesn't even exist.

It's time Brandon was put out to pasture. And take Nancy Pelosi with him.

 

[TomC]

It's time Brandon was put out to pasture. And take Nancy Pelosi with him.

You keep saying that and I've agreed.
The big question is what do we replace them with?

Every Republican option is far worse. But they're the only electable options, given our political system.

If you've got a replacement you're willing to defend as better, bring it on.
I've asked you that before.
Tom

 

[Elixir]

Brandon is full of tall tales.

I’d love to hear them, but apparently they - like everything else the Q-party has to offer - are only available as “allegations” on RW media. I do recall some damning allegations but they turned out to be by a criminal fugitive.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Democratic strategists are urging a “don’t panic” response to a series of opinion polls that reveal deep worries over Joe Biden’s age and his ability to beat Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election. A CNN survey conducted by SSRS caused shockwaves this week when it put Biden’s approval rating at just 39% and found two in three Democrats say the party should nominate someone else next year. The findings echoed a Wall Street Journal poll that found 73% of voters say Biden, 80, is “too old to run for president”

Teh Gruaniad

Biden will either be eased out or he will be unable to run.

Oh joy, Kamala Harris and Insufferable prick Gavin Newsom to the rescue.

If that's true, I would think they'd better get to it soon. Installing a new candidate after a primary season is likely to insult a lot of the voters and depress voter turnout. I would think that if there's a chance Biden won't run the Democrats should start a nomination process, with debates, etc. so that voters can be confident they have the candidate they want.

 

[TSwizzle]

If that's true, I would think they'd better get to it soon. Installing a new candidate after a primary season is likely to insult a lot of the voters and depress voter turnout. I would think that if there's a chance Biden won't run the Democrats should start a nomination process, with debates, etc. so that voters can be confident they have the candidate they want.

They really have painted themselves into a corner with Biden. He's not going to be fit this time next year is my prediction. Newsom definitely knows something.

 

[ZiprHead]

Trump faces another 14th Amendment candidacy challenge, this time in Minnesota

 

[TomC]

They really have painted themselves into a corner with Biden. He's not going to be fit this time next year is my prediction. Newsom definitely knows something.

I agree.
What do you suggest as an alternative?
As for Newsom, I have no idea.
Except he's better than anyone on the Republican side of the equation.
Tom

 

[Politesse]

Winner winner chicken dinner. Attacking the other guy for being old and incoherent (when your guy is also both) is a desperation move, not a leading argument.

What about those of us who don't consider either of them "our guy" and think both are too old and should not run?

I would not have chosen to run Joe Biden. I was a hated "Bernie Bro" as they say, and had it not been Bernie it would have been Pete. But you just have to face reality at a certain point. The likelihood of a sitting president being ousted in a primary race is 0% at present, because it has never occurred. Even a third party president is a more likely possibility than either Party turning its back on their in cum bent, as at least that happened once. I mean it literally caused a war, but it still happened once.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Oh good lord;

A sleepy Joe Biden saw his rambling Vietnam press conference brought to a sudden end on Sunday night with a mic cut and jazz music playing him off the stage, like he went too long in an awards speech.

Daily Mail

He can’t possibly run.

The economy must be in decent shape and inflation under control with his age being the complaints.

Yup, you can actually learn a lot from political attack ads. Presume the attacks are deceptive, but pay attention to the degree of wrongdoing they imply. You can figure attacks will use their biggest ammo--if the attacks are over fairly minor things you can pretty much presume there's nothing bigger.

Focus group a few elections back, I hadn't looked over the candidates yet (I typically wait until near the election because I figure things will come out and I want to have as complete a picture as possible) but they had one attack ad and my opinion: "if that's all you have against her she must be an angel and will be getting my vote."

 

[Derec]

I would not have chosen to run Joe Biden.

I really think his time was 2016. He would have done way better that Hillary, and would have beaten Trump like a rented mule. He was younger as well, and would have been less susceptible to manipulation from the left wing of the party. Thus he would have governed more like a moderate, and less like Bernie lite. A 2016 Biden would never have proposed Spendapalooza for example.
He would just be finishing out his 2nd term with some dignity, instead of his advanced age being the topic of discussion because he wants to do the job for half a decade more.

I was a hated "Bernie Bro" as they say, and had it not been Bernie it would have been Pete. But you just have to face reality at a certain point. The likelihood of a sitting president being ousted in a primary race is 0% at present, because it has never occurred.

And a credible primary challenge caused the incumbent to lose both times - Ford in 1976 and Carter in 1980. It worked out for the challenger of 1976, Reagan, but less so for Ted Kennedy who challenged Carter. Whether these challenges caused the incumbent to lose or just reflected a weak incumbent is of course uncertain. I think it's a little of both - a weak incumbent invites a strong challenger, and the strong challenger further weakens the incumbent in a positive feedback loop.
If a credible candidate (a governor like Newsom or Whitmer for example) were to challenge Biden, he could give him a run for his money. Hell, even RFK Jr. is pulling close to 20% in polls! But it would be very risky for the general election.

 

[Derec]

What do you suggest as an alternative?
As for Newsom, I have no idea.
Except he's better than anyone on the Republican side of the equation.
Tom

I think Newsom could play well in the primaries. He is definitely planning to run in 2028, and his early moves for 2028 make him best prepared should an opening arise for 2024.

I must reiterate what I said in the other thread:

I think the idiotic "reparations taskforce" he started will be an albatross around his neck. It isn't even playing well in California, and it will play in the rest of the country even less.
A California panel has called for billions in reparations for descendants of slaves
Most California voters oppose cash reparations for slavery, poll finds

That said, I think he could be strong in the primaries for the same reason he will be hampered in the general. Esp. in states with many black Dems like South Carolina (now stupidly going first instead of Iowa and NH) and Georgia.

 

[TomC]

I think the idiotic "reparations taskforce" he started will be an albatross around his neck.

Maybe.
Maybe it's more important to folks like you than most people. I dunno.
Trump went into the 2020 election having clearly failed at almost everything except getting tax cuts for the rich.
He certainly didn't build a Wall, much less make Mexico pay for it.
He didn't repeal ACA, much less replace it.
He didn't "lock her up", he's in more danger of that than she's ever been.
He didn't improve anything except the wealth and power of oligarchs like Putin.

Oh well. I'm in the "I hope Trump runs again" faction. I don't care who the Democrats run.
Tom

 

[Derec]

If that's true, I would think they'd better get to it soon. Installing a new candidate after a primary season is likely to insult a lot of the voters and depress voter turnout. I would think that if there's a chance Biden won't run the Democrats should start a nomination process, with debates, etc. so that voters can be confident they have the candidate they want.

Indeed. If there is any chance Biden won't be up for the job of running the general election campaign in 2024 he needs to drop out now.
Foisting Kamala onto the top of the ticket on the 11th hour will not be good for Dems' chances.

 

[Derec]

Maybe.
Maybe it's more important to folks like you than most people. I dunno.

What is "folks like me" supposed to mean?
Even in California the demands being made by the Newsom taskforce are unpopular with "most people".

Trump went into the 2020 election having clearly failed at almost everything except getting tax cuts for the rich.

And SCOTUS justices. But you are right, tax cuts were his only major legislative accomplishment.

He didn't improve anything except the wealth and power of oligarchs like Putin.

Not true. Putin's wealth and power are inextricably tied to oil and gas. Trump supported US oil and gas industry including things like fracking (something many 2020 Dems wanted to ban) and pipelines. In fact, Trump quickly undid Obama's stupid and pandering denial of the Dakota Access Pipeline. Had Bernie, Fauxachontas, Kamala et al had their way, and US fracking were banned, Putin would have been in a much better position to blackmail Western Europe when he decided to invade Ukraine in 2022.

Oh well. I'm in the "I hope Trump runs again" faction. I don't care who the Democrats run.

Why? You think he'd be very easy to beat? Careful what you wish. People thought the same in 2016.

 

[TomC]

Why? You think he'd be very easy to beat? Careful what you wish. People thought the same in 2016.

Yes.
I'm thinking of more recent history, after people got to know him

In 2020, he got his ass kicked by a geezer and a black Californian chick. By about 8,000,000 votes.
Suck it.
Tom

 

[Derec]

Yes.
I'm thinking of more recent history, after people got to know him
In 2020, he got his ass kicked by a geezer and a black Californian chick. By about 8,000,000 votes.

True, but 2020 was an unusual year in many ways. No real campaigning for one. Even the Dem convention was on Zoom.
Biden is vulnerable. General election polls have him either tied or trailing Trump right now. Being complacent and misunderestimating Trump because Biden did so well in 2020 would be a mistake.

Suck it.Tom

Who should "suck it"? We do not have many Trump fans here. I voted for Biden/Harris, even if I disagree with him on a lot of issues. He did disappoint though. I thought he'd govern more as a moderate, less as Bernie lite (see the $3,500,000,000,000.00 Spendapalooza he wanted to pass in an already overheated, inflationary economy)

 

[Elixir]

I'm thinking of more recent history, after people got to know him

Everyone who “knew him” prior to 2008 already knew.

In 2020, he got his ass kicked by a geezer and a black Californian chick. By about 8,000,000 votes.

Then went right out and attempted to stay in power using mob violence and corruption, stole a bunch of classified documents, defied subpoenas for “his” stolen property and is still raking in the bucks on his lies. If all that increases his numbers enough to re-elect him, even with the help of all Russia’s horses and all Russia’s men, we get what we deserve: a corrupt third world kleptocracy with a rotting life expectancy, declining standard of living, elimination of freedoms of travel, religion, reproduction etc.

Suck it.

Indeed. That would suck.
VOTE.

 

[Tigers!]

It is a very popular myth, the idea that the ego of American president is the controlling factor in the creation of the global economy. Whenever I'm talking to someone and they blame any president for "The Economy", I immediately make a tactfully silent mental note of that person's idiocy, but alas, American voters have many times over shown that this is an enormous factor if not the determining factor in their decision whether to vote and for whom...

Seriously, you probably made ten decisions this week alone that had more impact on your personal finances for the year than any president could hope to have, and most of the factors that aren't in your control - the price of petroleum, whether Amazon workers go on strike, whether the Russians take Kyiv, how many billionaires decide to sink money into Crypto this year, etc - are not under his control either.

We have the same problem down under.
Its always the PM's fault!

 

[Tigers!]

Winner winner chicken dinner. Attacking the other guy for being old and incoherent (when your guy is also both) is a desperation move, not a leading argument.

The biggest problem you yanks have is not the age of the candidates but rather their quality - mental, emotional and physical etc.