The vast economic downside of deporting and/or substantially limiting immigrants into the US

[southernhybrid]

Anyone with at least an average IQ realized that deporting or substantially limiting new immigrants into the US would eventually have a negative impact on our economy, but the evidence is starting to become apparent. I will "gift" an article that goes into a lot of detail regarding this problem and hope others will find more sources regarding this issue.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/09/...e_code=1.2k4.7YJ8.dAbiyLZnNAHO&smid=url-share

Fearing roundups, many immigrants are staying home. Construction, agriculture, senior care and hospitality employers say labor shortages will worsen.

The railroad tracks that slice through downtown Freehold, N.J., used to be lined by dozens of men, waiting for work. Each morning, the men — day laborers, almost all from Latin America and undocumented — would be scooped up by local contractors in pickup trucks for jobs painting, landscaping, removing debris.

In recent weeks, the tracks have been desolate. On a gray February morning, a laborer named Mario, who came from Mexico two decades ago, said it was the quietest he could remember.

“Because of the president, we have a fear,” said Mario, 55, who agreed to be interviewed on the condition that only his first name would be used because he is undocumented. His two sons are also in the United States illegally; one works in paving, the other in home construction. “We are in difficult times,” he said.

This scene has been playing out on the streets of Freehold, on the farms of California’s Central Valley, in nursing homes in Arizona, in Georgia poultry plants and in Chicago restaurants.


Fear has gripped America’s undocumented workers. Many are staying home.

The impact is being felt not only in immigrant homes and communities, but also in the industries that rely on immigrants as a source of willing and inexpensive labor, including residential construction, agriculture, senior care and hospitality. American consumers will soon feel the pain.

“Businesses across industries know what comes next when their work force disappears — restaurants, coffee shops and grocery stores struggling to stay open, food prices soaring, and everyday Americans demanding action,” said Rebecca Shi, chief executive of the American Business Immigration Coalition.

An estimated 20 percent of the U.S. labor force is foreign born, and millions of immigrant workers lack legal immigration status.Hundreds of thousands more have been shielded from deportation and have work permits under a program called temporary protected status, offered to nationals of countries in upheaval, which has enabled corporate giants like Amazon and large commercial builders to hire them. But Mr. Trump has already announced that he will phase out the program, starting with Venezuelan and Haitian beneficiaries.

Refugees from around the globe, who have settled in the United States after fleeing persecution, have supplied a steady pipeline of low-skilled labor for poultry plants, warehouses and manufacturing. But that pipeline could dry up since Mr. Trump shut down the U.S. refugee program. Last month, a federal judge restored it temporarily while a lawsuit is pending, but the program remains at a standstill and no refugees are arriving.

The White House did not respond to questions about the strategy of deportations and how the Trump administration envisions filling the gaps left behind by the immigrant work force.

Leaders of industries that are the most exposed warn that the impact will be widespread, with far-reaching consequences for consumers and employers.

Kezia Scales, vice president at PHI, a national research and advocacy organization focused on long-term care for older adults and people with disabilities, said her industry was already facing a “recruitment crisis.”

“If immigrants are prevented from entering this work force or are forced to leave the country by restrictive immigration policies and rhetoric,” she said, “we will face systems collapse and catastrophic consequences for millions of people who rely on these workers.”

There is a lot more in the article and I suggest you read all of it, as it's full of good information, as well as the price we will all pay if the felon continues to deport and scare hard working immigrants. Our immigration system needs to be improved, but this isn't the way to do it. Almost all of come from immigrant ancestors and the hatred and xenophobia is dangerous. Maybe the country needs to suffer greatly before more people will appreciate the contributions of poor immigrants. Right now, I doubt many want to come here as Trump is making the country a potentially dangerous autocracy. We are on a speeding train heading for a wreck, so hold on tight! And the fucking conservative Christians who were supposed to "love they neighbor as thyself" are largely to blame for this fucked up mess too. Hypocrites!

 

[Tigers!]

There is a lot more in the article and I suggest you read all of it, as it's full of good information, as well as the price we will all pay if the felon continues to deport and scare hard working immigrants. Our immigration system needs to be improved, but this isn't the way to do it. Almost all of come from immigrant ancestors and the hatred and xenophobia is dangerous. Maybe the country needs to suffer greatly before more people will appreciate the contributions of poor immigrants. Right now, I doubt many want to come here as Trump is making the country a potentially dangerous autocracy. We are on a speeding train heading for a wreck, so hold on tight! And the fucking conservative Christians who were supposed to "love they neighbor as thyself" are largely to blame for this fucked up mess too. Hypocrites!

This situation has taken many years to get to this stage with a large amount of turning eyes the other way by governments of both persuasions.
Why are conservative Christians largely to blame (me not being familiar with all that has been going on), according to you?

 

[southernhybrid]

There is a lot more in the article and I suggest you read all of it, as it's full of good information, as well as the price we will all pay if the felon continues to deport and scare hard working immigrants. Our immigration system needs to be improved, but this isn't the way to do it. Almost all of come from immigrant ancestors and the hatred and xenophobia is dangerous. Maybe the country needs to suffer greatly before more people will appreciate the contributions of poor immigrants. Right now, I doubt many want to come here as Trump is making the country a potentially dangerous autocracy. We are on a speeding train heading for a wreck, so hold on tight! And the fucking conservative Christians who were supposed to "love they neighbor as thyself" are largely to blame for this fucked up mess too. Hypocrites!

This situation has taken many years to get to this stage with a large amount of turning eyes the other way by governments of both persuasions.
Why are conservative Christians largely to blame (me not being familiar with all that has been going on), according to you?

I blame the conservative Christians because about 80% of them voted and still support Trump. I know a few personally and I've discussed immigration with them. They feel that most immigrants are bad people and Trump is right for not wanting more to come into the country. They have been manipulated into this cult.

I am happy that my late mother, who was a conservative Christian despised Trump, but she also complained to me about her church friends who told her that she shouldn't have voted for Obama and things like that. Here preacher had the audacity to tell his congregation not to vote for Democrats. It distressed her but she hated conflict so she never confronted them. Instead she vented to her atheist daughter who agreed with her when it came to politics, but not when it came to religion. We never allowed that to interfere with our love for each other, which is the way it should be. But, I digress.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

Predictions on this scale are rarely ever as dire nor as great as the prophets claim.

I honestly don't know how this all gonna go down, but what does seem predictable is that it's not going to result in better wages or quality of life for Americans.

There isn't going to be ambitious young people hanging out a Home Depot or picking fruit on farms, but it seems likely the price of unskilled manual labor and food will go up. The question here is how much. People are shitting themselves over the price of eggs, which somehow became a bizarre symbol for the increase in grocery costs, but who do they think works those farms and harvests those eggs?

I went to Denny's yesterday and it cost me $34 and change for a coke and a godawful unhealthy Grand Slam meal. Every worker there, save for one waitress was of Latino descent. This was on California's central coast, which is much whiter than SoCal. What'll happen to restaurant chains? Maybe it'll be like it was when I was growing up in the 70s--eating out will become a rare treat?

Anyway, crime isn't going to drop precipitously. Maybe a little, but most likely it'll barely move the needle, if at all.

Will all the useless shit Americans buy will still be available for cheap? Hard to say.

Time will tell.

 

[Tristan Scott]

As far as agriculture goes we already have previewed the results in the sugar beet industry. Foreign labor was banned from the industry decades ago in Colorado and Wyoming and the industry in those areas died. The fields went fallow and the processing plants were abandoned. As a result the US went from being one of the largest exporters of sugar to now being one of the largest importers of sugar. The same will happen with all of our agriculture and food processing.
If we think that being dependent on foreign oil is bad, wait till its food.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Predictions on this scale are rarely ever as dire nor as great as the prophets claim.

I honestly don't know how this all gonna go down, but what does seem predictable is that it's not going to result in better wages or quality of life for Americans.

Prices will increase. Immigrant labor is a major backbone to our economy. Agriculture and construction will become more expensive. And immediately so. We need the food now and things need to be constructed now. We won't benefit from any of this.

 

[jonatha]

Foreign labor was banned from the industry decades ago

How was this accomplished?

 

[Politesse]

It's already becoming a local disaster, here. The buses are coming round the usual spots to find day pickers, but the parking lots are empty, everyone is too afraid of ICE. Lots of fruits and veggies just rotting away in the fields, and it's only the beginning of the season.

Trump’s Immigration Threats Are Already Wrecking the Food Industry

 

[Elixir]

It's already becoming a local disaster, here. The buses are coming round the usual spots to find day pickers, but the parking lots are empty, everyone is too afraid of ICE. Lots of fruits and veggies just rotting away in the fields, and it's only the beginning of the season.

Trump’s Immigration Threats Are Already Wrecking the Food Industry

Food insecurity is a tyrant’s best friend.
Watch it work.

 

[bilby]

If we think that being dependent on foreign oil is bad, wait till its food.

Is dependence on foreign labour better or worse than dependence on foreign oil or food?

If independence is the goal, then you need to make all of the labourers in the US into US citizens.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

Predictions on this scale are rarely ever as dire nor as great as the prophets claim.

I honestly don't know how this all gonna go down, but what does seem predictable is that it's not going to result in better wages or quality of life for Americans.

Prices will increase. Immigrant labor is a major backbone to our economy. Agriculture and construction will become more expensive. And immediately so. We need the food now and things need to be constructed now. We won't benefit from any of this.

I tend to agree that prices will go up, but the question is whether those price increases will be dramatic. It may not be dramatic if e.g. work visas were liberally issued, or something like temporary work visas were issued. But is Trumpco capable of understanding, let alone capable of implementing such programs?

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say no.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

It's already becoming a local disaster, here. The buses are coming round the usual spots to find day pickers, but the parking lots are empty, everyone is too afraid of ICE. Lots of fruits and veggies just rotting away in the fields, and it's only the beginning of the season.

Trump’s Immigration Threats Are Already Wrecking the Food Industry

Food insecurity is a tyrant’s best friend.
Watch it work.

Yeah, that's something I haven't given much thought to.

However, we're so spoiled here in the U.S. that if suddenly McDonald's wasn't available, there would nationwide riots.

OTOH, given Trump's idiot supporters, they'd blame it on the Dems and other evil liberals. Those fucks will happily starve themselves and their families as long as Fox News tells them it's patriotic to do so.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Predictions on this scale are rarely ever as dire nor as great as the prophets claim.

I honestly don't know how this all gonna go down, but what does seem predictable is that it's not going to result in better wages or quality of life for Americans.

Prices will increase. Immigrant labor is a major backbone to our economy. Agriculture and construction will become more expensive. And immediately so. We need the food now and things need to be constructed now. We won't benefit from any of this.

I tend to agree that prices will go up, but the question is whether those price increases will be dramatic. It may not be dramatic if e.g. work visas were liberally issued, or something like temporary work visas were issued. But is Trumpco capable of understanding, let alone capable of implementing such programs?

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say no.

Inflation wasn't insane under Biden. But that was enough to get people angry. Prices don't have to go up 300%. If they go up 33 to 50%, they notice. They won't be happy. Jebus... they are angry about eggs being $6 a dozen.

 

[bilby]

Angry cultists direct their anger where the leader tells them to, not at the leader himself (even when he is obviously to blame).

An angry US population is a good thing for Trump.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Angry cultists direct their anger where the leader tells them to, not at the leader himself (even when he is obviously to blame).

An angry US population is a good thing for Trump.

You misunderstand. The Red Hat MAGA cult probably is 1 in 6 of the population. Another 2/6 (or 1/3 in metric ) are conservatives who... value wealth above all else. Consequently, they'll vote for anyone but a Democrat! These people will vote for Trump, apparently no matter what.

The next 3/6 (1/2 in metric) are liberals and they will almost entirely not vote for Trump. But if they get too angry, they can get real stupid and make matters worse and vote third party. The remaining 1/6, which gives us a problematic total fraction of the US population of 7/6, don't care a damn about politics. They care about how their life currently is. These are simple people who don't see big things. They see how whatever is impacting their life personally. Those people are dangerous people to be angry at the status quo for anyone in office.

And as can be imagined that 1/6 of the 7/6 is what often makes the differences in our elections.

 

[thebeave]

Predictions on this scale are rarely ever as dire nor as great as the prophets claim.

I honestly don't know how this all gonna go down, but what does seem predictable is that it's not going to result in better wages or quality of life for Americans.

Prices will increase. Immigrant labor is a major backbone to our economy. Agriculture and construction will become more expensive. And immediately so. We need the food now and things need to be constructed now. We won't benefit from any of this.

I tend to agree that prices will go up, but the question is whether those price increases will be dramatic. It may not be dramatic if e.g. work visas were liberally issued, or something like temporary work visas were issued. But is Trumpco capable of understanding, let alone capable of implementing such programs?

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say no.

Inflation wasn't insane under Biden. But that was enough to get people angry. Prices don't have to go up 300%. If they go up 33 to 50%, they notice. They won't be happy. Jebus... they are angry about eggs being $6 a dozen.

Eggs are $10.99 a dozen at my store (Lucky). If they ever get down to $6 dozen, I will be dancing in the streets.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Predictions on this scale are rarely ever as dire nor as great as the prophets claim.

I honestly don't know how this all gonna go down, but what does seem predictable is that it's not going to result in better wages or quality of life for Americans.

Prices will increase. Immigrant labor is a major backbone to our economy. Agriculture and construction will become more expensive. And immediately so. We need the food now and things need to be constructed now. We won't benefit from any of this.

I tend to agree that prices will go up, but the question is whether those price increases will be dramatic. It may not be dramatic if e.g. work visas were liberally issued, or something like temporary work visas were issued. But is Trumpco capable of understanding, let alone capable of implementing such programs?

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say no.

Inflation wasn't insane under Biden. But that was enough to get people angry. Prices don't have to go up 300%. If they go up 33 to 50%, they notice. They won't be happy. Jebus... they are angry about eggs being $6 a dozen.

Eggs are $10.99 a dozen at my store (Lucky). If they ever get down to $6 dozen, I will be dancing in the streets.

Things cost more in CA. They aren't as expensive in a lower cost areas like Ohio.

 

[Politesse]

Things cost more in CA.

Tell me about it! I paid $25 for an omelette yesterday.

 

[robnisch]

$6.99 here. But they go up and down.
I have one of those Advantage food cards, so they were pretty much free.

 

[Elixir]

Inflation wasn't insane under Biden. But that was enough to get people angry. Prices don't have to go up 300%. If they go up 33 to 50%, they notice. They won't be happy. Jebus... they are angry about eggs being $6 a dozen.

I just paid $8.99 for a dozen eggs. 50% more than what made "them" angry.
They're not so angry when Orange Jebus sticks it to them.