Measurement error.
In all probability the only one that belongs on this list is Galveston and even that's uncertain. The others are in October 1918.
We don't have a day-by-day breakdown but the Spanish Flu averaged 6,290/day during that month.
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The World-O-Meter Thread
- Thread starter Elixir
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Measurement error.
In all probability the only one that belongs on this list is Galveston and even that's uncertain. The others are in October 1918.
We don't have a day-by-day breakdown but the Spanish Flu averaged 6,290/day during that month.
Axulus
Veteran Member
675k died in the US from the Spanish flu. Did they forget to look at those numbers?
Politesse
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They did not all die on the same day.
Shadowy Man
Contributor
But did more than 2403 die from Spanish flu on any given day?
crazyfingers
Supermagnon
Almost certainly in Oct 1918 when almost 200,000 died in that one month in the US. That averages 6500 per day. It hit in two waves. But Woodrow Wilson tried to cover it up. My guess is that there are no daily records kept. Averages would be the best data.
Anyway, it's only called the Spanish Flu because Spain was not in WWI and didn't cover it up. The waring powers did cover it up.
Most who study the great influenza of 1918 believe it originated in the US..
Elixir
Made in America
Let's face it - the point stands, but the meme is wrong and getting more wrong every day.
Yesterday 3265 Americans were reported dead from COVID-19.
2981 the day before...
crazyfingers
Supermagnon
Yes the point is valid. The US is being hit by a 9/11 or Pearl Harbor scale event almost every day now and Trump is mostly ignoring it.
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FTFY
crazyfingers
Supermagnon
I gave him slight leeway for having a vaccine task force but he's trying to meddle with the FDA and declined Pfizer's offer for more doses a while back.
It's truly strange. On the one hand he denies the existence of a serious public health crisis but on the other he want's full credit for a vaccine. That alone should short-circuit his supporter's brains. If they have one.
Elixir
Made in America
Trump wants credit for the vaccine against the hoax, the development of which had NOTHING to do with him. He doesn't want "credit" for the 300,000 dead bodies or the continuing nightmare of thousands dying every single day and hospitals overloaded with new cases running out of PPE AGAIN - the things he actually did have something to do with...
That is about one-day death tolls--something we don't have for the Spanish Flu.
However, the numbers from October 1918 almost certainly occupy at least 7 of the 8 slots on that list.
Note that it's another disease that got a lot of the same garbage we are seeing from the right at present. Don't take a pandemic seriously = death tolls for the record books.
No. He's ordering the head of the FDA to approve the vaccine immediately. That's not "completely ignoring" even though it's not a sensible action.
Jokodo
Veteran Member
We can always recreate the list as one of the deadliest days in the last 100 years of US history. As of today, that would put 9-11 on 5th place and D-Day and Pearl Harbour around place 15
Elixir
Made in America
FAPP he’s ignoring it. He only chimes in to try to take credit for anything that isn’t horrible news.
Derec
Contributor
Another big problem with that list is that you cannot really compare numbers now with when US had 1/10 of its present population, like during the Civil War. Antietam should really be 36,000 adjusted for "inflation".
Derec
Contributor
Post-Thanksgiving data were a mess, sure. Before Thanksgiving the curve started to flatten already though. And now we are past the messy data period, and sure enough, we are not exponential. With exponential growth the curve must get steeper and steeper, but after a post-Thanksgiving spike (mostly catching up to the Thanksgiving slump in reporting but also some Thanksgiving transmission - idiots!) the curve has flattened again.
The daily deaths are also promising.
Elixir
Made in America
"Flattening" as in "not increasing as quickly as it was". Barely.
Thank god for that, but it still looks like the infection rate is going to top out beyond 250k/day. (246k on Friday, up "only" around 5% from the previous Friday... which is good news).
Now that it is projected that it will be "late spring" before the first 100m vaccinations will be administered, this promises to drag out even longer than anticipated.
Hopefully that projection will strike an appropriate note of caution and people will not relax their mask-wearing and social distancing prematurely.
Looking at the slope of previous decreases in new cases after lockdowns were in place, we have to hope for much steeper declines from the stratospheric levels we have now, or it will be mid-summer before we get down to "first peak" levels.
If we cut the new infection rate in half every two months starting today, it will be eight months before we get down to the neighborhood of 15k/day.
Thank god for that, but it still looks like the infection rate is going to top out beyond 250k/day. (246k on Friday, up "only" around 5% from the previous Friday... which is good news).
Now that it is projected that it will be "late spring" before the first 100m vaccinations will be administered, this promises to drag out even longer than anticipated.
Hopefully that projection will strike an appropriate note of caution and people will not relax their mask-wearing and social distancing prematurely.
Looking at the slope of previous decreases in new cases after lockdowns were in place, we have to hope for much steeper declines from the stratospheric levels we have now, or it will be mid-summer before we get down to "first peak" levels.
If we cut the new infection rate in half every two months starting today, it will be eight months before we get down to the neighborhood of 15k/day.
Look more carefully. We have a up-down-up blip from Thanksgiving, then a return to the baseline. No respite.
Derec
Contributor
I did. The daily curve has been concave down since mid-November at least. And after the Thanksgiving mess, it is back to being concave down.
An exponential growth function (and all its derivatives) is convex (aka concave up) so it fails that necessary condition that the cases are exponentially growing.
Derec
Contributor
The tangent line to the 7 day curve is close to horizontal now. So hardly "barely". And the 7 day average, for all its advantages, is by necessity lagging because you average over the last week.
While individual days (which are erratic) may spike above 250k/d, the 7 day average is very unlikely to. It's below 220k/d now, and it is unlikely to increase that much before the peak.
Where did you read that? Late Spring is first three weeks of June basically. That seems overly pessimistic, considering that Pfizer has already been approved and Moderna will most likely follow shortly. WIll will likely vaccinate in the neighborhood of 10 million healthcare workers by the end of the year. Tens of millions more should be vaccinated by March 1st.
Yes, we surely should not relax too much.
Halving every 2 months seems very pessimistic to me, but we shall see. By my calculations , that would mean 8 million additional confirmed cases by beginning of February. Or half as many official cases as we've had so far.