The World-O-Meter Thread

[Politesse]

And the US is likely heading to the highest number of daily positives since the pandemic started.

Ding ding ding - we have a winner.
Over 80k new cases in a day... just when Jason said it would be going away.

View attachment 29921

I was hoping to hear his optimistic take on the current COVID situation but he has fallen rather silent on the subject. Some things are hard to minimize, as Trump's flailing around vividly demonstrates.

Ah, but if you reject science as a whole, it doesn't matter when your hypothesis proves catastrophically wrong relative to the data.

 

[Derec]

Ah, but if you reject science as a whole, it doesn't matter when your hypothesis proves catastrophically wrong relative to the data.

There is no reason to believe that Jason rejects science.

 

[Derec]

And the US is likely heading to the highest number of daily positives since the pandemic started.

Ding ding ding - we have a winner.
Over 80k new cases in a day... just when Jason said it would be going away.

I was hoping to hear his optimistic take on the current COVID situation but he has fallen rather silent on the subject. Some things are hard to minimize, as Trump's flailing around vividly demonstrates.

First of all, when you post case numbers, use the 7 day average, not just the noisy daily numbers. The 7 day average is ~65k/d, still shy of the July record of ~69k/d.

 

[Politesse]

Ah, but if you reject science as a whole, it doesn't matter when your hypothesis proves catastrophically wrong relative to the data.

There is no reason to believe that Jason rejects science.

We'll see.

 

[bilby]

The US population is ~13.25 times that of Australia; So that 500/day peak is equivalent to about 6,625 cases/day on a per capita basis.

And before we start talking about population density, that second peak in Australia was almost exclusively in Melbourne, which is a very dense population centre with a population of ~5 million. Using just that population, the 500/day peak in Melbourne scales to ~33k/day in the USA.

So our one poorly performing city has had less than half the peak cases per capita per day that your entire nation has.

 

[dannyk]

View attachment 29938

The US population is ~13.25 times that of Australia; So that 500/day peak is equivalent to about 6,625 cases/day on a per capita basis.

And before we start talking about population density, that second peak in Australia was almost exclusively in Melbourne, which is a very dense population centre with a population of ~5 million. Using just that population, the 500/day peak in Melbourne scales to ~33k/day in the USA.

So our one poorly performing city has had less than half the peak cases per capita per day that your entire nation has.

And it was during our winter as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Derec]

So we (US) are just a hair under 69k daily cases (7 day average, as always) on October 25th. Sadly this means that we will exceed the 1b (maybe call it the Southern Wavelet because while it hit populated centers throughout most of the country, it hit the southern states, from Florida to California, the hardest or just call it the Summer Wavelet) peak probably tomorrow (1b peaked just under 70k/d).

What does everybody predict this current wavelet (1c or Rural Wavelet) will peak at? I would say 85k±5k, achieved sometime in mid-November

This article argues that we will exceed 100k/d, but I do not think this is realistic. Wavelet 1c has been going on for over a month and the virus will run out of a large number of easily infectible people - i.e. those still congregating in groups in places with high case numbers, especially without wearing masks. Early voting also probably contributed some to community spread - think people standing in line for hours at times^*. That avenue of transmission will disappear on November 3rd. Yes, weather is getting colder and more people will spend time indoors, but that doesn't necessarily mean that everybody will seek places with many other people.

By the way, some European countries are looking worse than us.
France had 34.5k/d (7 day avg.) cases. That's 165k/d adjusted for US-population.
Belgium had 13k/d. That's insane 360k/d US-equivalent! Or more than 0.1% of the population per day.
Italy had 16k/d, or 85k/d US-equiv. Not great, not terrible.
UK had 21.6k/d, or 105k/d US-equiv.
Germany is doing pretty well actually. Only 10k/d or 39k/d US-equiv. So a little more than half of what we are running.

^* By the way, I drove past my local DeKalb library doubling as early voting location a few times, saw the lines, and peaced out. Finally, last Friday I saw no line out the building and managed to cast my vote with zero delay. Voting procedure is touch-screen with printed ballot that you then have to scan. Before I voted with touch-screen and that's it. I don't know if that procedure is different for early voting or it they added a paper trail for all voting. I voted Biden/Harris, Ossoff but could not countenance voting for the preacherman, so I protest voted for Matt Lieberman as a protest vote against the poor choice state Democratic Party made for their unofficial standard bearer for the special election.

 

[Derec]

And it was during our winter as well.

Australia tends to have mild winters though, even in the South like Melbourne. You guys have milder winters than Atlanta.

The COVID-winter connection is only partly one of heat and UV (sunny Winter days can pack a UV punch too though, albeit at a shallower angle and for a shorter part of the day) killing the virus faster.
It is also of spending time indoors vs. outdoors. The usual idea is that people spend more time indoors (where spread is more likely) in the Winter and outdoors (where spread is less likely) in the Summer.
But that is only true when you have cold winters and comfortable Summers. When your Summers are scorching, you seek air conditioned places. When your Winters are mild, you go outside then. That's probably Summer wavelet 1b which peaked in late July hit the South especially bad.

Atlanta has scorching Summers and Winters with sometimes nice but often rather cold days too. Our nicest outdoor weather is Spring and Fall, unless it rains...

 

[Elixir]

What does everybody predict this current wavelet (1c or Rural Wavelet) will peak at? I would say 85k±5k, achieved sometime in mid-November

That totally depends on what if anything is done about it.
If Trump loses bigly enough on 11/3, maybe he will realize that his willful ignorance has outlived its usefulness, and start asking his idiots to wear masks. Might even start looking after PPE production/distribution and actually addressing the COVID problem. In that case, the lower end of your prediction might hold. But I consider that unlikely. More likely, if Trump loses he will see it as America turning its collective back on the Greatest President Ever, and will double down on his destructive behavior. In that case, by inauguration day we will be fondly remembering the good old days of a mere 100,000 new cases per day... if something doesn't break the curve pretty soon, we will be above that 100k mark in 3-4 weeks.


Today's 7-day rolling average = 72,731

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

There is currently no basis for the current growth to slowdown. The first wave was flattened with the soft shutdown. The second "wave" was quelled by FL, TX, and AZ pulling back their reopening. This new "wave" is everywhere. The max might be based on our capacity for testing.

 

[Elixir]

There is currently no basis for the current growth to slowdown. The first wave was flattened with the soft shutdown. The second "wave" was quelled by FL, TX, and AZ pulling back their reopening. This new "wave" is everywhere. The max might be based on our capacity for testing.

Yup. It ALL comes down to that one way or another.
At one extreme, if everyone was tested every morning and every night and knew their test results in an hour, then isolated for two weeks if positive or in close contact w/positive... it would immediately cut new case numbers, and would soon be over.
At the other extreme, nobody gets tested until they're symptomatic - that's almost where we are now except where there are massive outbreaks. Not a pretty picture.
Of course mask use and distancing can "flatten the curve" to the extent that the public will adopt those practices, but because people are idiots, testing is probably going to be the way out of this absent a vaccine or meerikle cure.

 

[Derec]

That totally depends on what if anything is done about it.
If Trump loses bigly enough on 11/3, maybe he will realize that his willful ignorance has outlived its usefulness, and start asking his idiots to wear masks.

Fat chance of him doing anything sensible like that!

Might even start looking after PPE production/distribution and actually addressing the COVID problem. In that case, the lower end of your prediction might hold. But I consider that unlikely. More likely, if Trump loses he will see it as America turning its collective back on the Greatest President Ever, and will double down on his destructive behavior. In that case, by inauguration day we will be fondly remembering the good old days of a mere 100,000 new cases per day... if something doesn't break the curve pretty soon, we will be above that 100k mark in 3-4 weeks.

I think what will break it is first and foremost saturation and secondly, people individually adjusting their behavior. I am sure a lot of people are adjusting how often they go to stores etc. based on how "hot" their area is.
What I mean by saturation is that the "easily infectible" population is a minority. You know, people who spend significant time in crowded areas for work or just for fun and people who refuse to wear masks.
There is also the fact that the elections are an occasion to have crowds either in line at (early) polling sites or at rallies. And that avenue of transmission will go away on Tuesday.

Today's 7-day rolling average = 72,731

Up to 75k actually. Not good, but still very far away from 100k/d.

 

[Derec]

There is currently no basis for the current growth to slowdown. The first wave was flattened with the soft shutdown. The second "wave" was quelled by FL, TX, and AZ pulling back their reopening. This new "wave" is everywhere. The max might be based on our capacity for testing.

It's all first wave because it parts of it affected distinct parts of the country. I call them wavelets and label them 1a in the Spring (mostly North East), 1b in the Summer (most of the populated areas throughout the county, but especially southern US) and now we are in the middle of 1c, which is hitting what's left over. That is mostly rural areas and smaller metro areas not hit in 1a and 1b.

I think the first two wavelets were quelled through a combination of measures such as closings and mask-wearing but also to a great extent through saturation. For example, half of all people in some neighborhoods in NYC had antibodies this Summer. Saturation will slow 1c down as well. There are already some signs that it is happening in several of the hard-hit mostly rural states like North Dakota, Montana or Idaho.

 

[Derec]

At one extreme, if everyone was tested every morning and every night and knew their test results in an hour, then isolated for two weeks if positive or in close contact w/positive... it would immediately cut new case numbers, and would soon be over.

Would not be a bad idea if you could make many billions of these tests (a one month supply for every American would take almost 10 billion tests!) and those rapid tests were reliable. As it stands the rapid ones are far less reliable than the PCR tests that take longer.

Of course mask use and distancing can "flatten the curve" to the extent that the public will adopt those practices, but because people are idiots, testing is probably going to be the way out of this absent a vaccine or meerikle cure.

Vaccines are coming, the question is only how effective the first candidate to be approved will be.

 

[Worldtraveller]

There is currently no basis for the current growth to slowdown. The first wave was flattened with the soft shutdown. The second "wave" was quelled by FL, TX, and AZ pulling back their reopening. This new "wave" is everywhere. The max might be based on our capacity for testing.

Yup. It ALL comes down to that one way or another.
At one extreme, if everyone was tested every morning and every night and knew their test results in an hour, then isolated for two weeks if positive or in close contact w/positive... it would immediately cut new case numbers, and would soon be over.
At the other extreme, nobody gets tested until they're symptomatic - that's almost where we are now except where there are massive outbreaks. Not a pretty picture.
Of course mask use and distancing can "flatten the curve" to the extent that the public will adopt those practices, but because people are idiots, testing is probably going to be the way out of this absent a vaccine or meerikle cure.

They've started talking about rationing 'healthcare' here in UT. Not sure what that means for regular appointments type stuff, but if you get really sick or injured, you just might be SOL.

I just wish the means testing was based more on whether someone could be shown to have neglected the safety measures more than any underlying health conditions.

 

[fromderinside]

Vaccines are coming, the question is only how effective the first candidate to be approved will be.

Well there's that. However the most disturbing indications are that immunity is very limited in duration which would make a vaccination moot. Are you ready for deadly 'cold' seasons several times a year? It's best we wake up, smell the roses and prepare to avoid doing such smelling too much.

If the above isn't clear, get ready to keep bars closed, to invest in outdoor simulating air conditioning in restaurants, malls, event arenas and such and start wearing masks as necessary fashion item. Because as you may know there is no tribal immunity to the cold.

I'm here to crush the Pollyanna Republican view that disease can be wished away.

Get real. The economy will need to radically change. If anything has been demonstrated its that national determination to defeat a disease requires following science, enforcing periodic isolation, etc. People need to be willing to do what is necessary for survival. Freedom is conditional on respecting the rights of others to live with as little fear as possible. .

 

[Gun Nut]

the most disturbing indications are that immunity is very limited in duration which would make a vaccination moot.

That is a false narrative pushed by fear mongering media that is hyping the (real) threat of COVID-19. This is why I despise "pop-science" reporting. Science is not in the business of "proof". So ask a Doctor if it is POSSIBLE that this virus triggers an immune response in humans like none other ever seen before in a hundred thousand years of evolution, and they have to honestly say, "technically.. yes it is in the realm of possible". So the fear mongering media reports that "Doctors don't KNOW if anyone can ever be immune".

T-Cells produce antibodies that it "remembers" were effective at disabling this virus. If your body didn't reduce the the amount of antibodies it produces in response to every specific infection you ever have had in your life (including that little cut on your finger you never thought twice about) in absence of the infection, your immune system would spend all its time and energy producing unneeded proteins, wasting resources and flooding your blood with them for no reason.

ALL antibodies you can produce are produced in proportion to the associated viral load.

My wife and I had COVID-19 in March. Her case was much worse than mine - she almost needed hospitalization from the pneumonia that developed. We both saw several doctors... and continue to be treated by two.

Every doctor we asked the same question. "Are we immune from this strain of the virus, now that we have recovered"? 7 out of 7 doctors responded without hesitation, "of course you are. There is no reason at all to believe otherwise".

AS of 1 month ago, there were 2 CONFIRMED (out of, what, 8 million infected people?), valid reports of "reinfection". the first one was a guy from China that caught the two different strains of the virus... which is impossible unless you travel between the US and China in a time machine. and the second one was someone with a compromised immune system (not AIDS, but something else I never heard of).

There were a handful of other early reports of "reinfection", but they remain unconfirmed, and my wife and I are POSITIVE that these poele experienced exactly what she and I experienced... 1 week of mild symptoms, followed by a week feeling like it passed, then 2 weeks of the symptoms coming back full force... which then either gets better (me) or progressively gets worse until medication (antibiotics and steroids) is taken, and works, or you die in the hospital. Either path, it is easy to feel like you experienced two different illnesses with a short time between.

We have been donating our Convalescent Plasma every month since July. Each donation is used to save the lives of up to 4 people on ventilators. It is our ANTIBODIES they extract and provide to others in need.

Now how could this work to save people if immunity wasn't real?

 

[Sajara]

Gun Nut,
I think you are misreading fromderinside's post. You are both saying the same thing.

fromderinside: "immunity is very limited in duration"

Gun Nut: "If your body didn't reduce the the amount of antibodies it produces in response to every specific infection you ever have had in your life in absence of the infection, your immune system would spend all its time and energy producing unneeded proteins, wasting resources and flooding your blood with them for no reason."

In other words, there /can be/ an element of time for how long the immunity lasts. It looks like the immunity for Coronavirus doesn't last as long for other diseases we have vaccines for. The vaccines work best when the time duration is long (get a few shots, be immune your entire life...or 7 years...or as is the case with other flu's - only 6 months to a year).

fromderinside is saying that it looks like the Coronavirus immunity time period is shorter (I think I saw a window of around 3-6 months). As you mentioned, it also appears to be affected by the severity of the load, so for you and your wife, you may have a longer time period. For those who are asymptomatic, it may be 3 months only...which would be an issue for a vaccine to be truly effective on a grand scale. 3 months in a global supply chain is nothing when it takes 1+ month just to ship via ocean travel.

 

[Elixir]

Gun Nut,
I think you are misreading fromderinside's post. You are both saying the same thing.

fromderinside: "immunity is very limited in duration"

Gun Nut: "If your body didn't reduce the the amount of antibodies it produces in response to every specific infection you ever have had in your life in absence of the infection, your immune system would spend all its time and energy producing unneeded proteins, wasting resources and flooding your blood with them for no reason."

In other words, there /can be/ an element of time for how long the immunity lasts. It looks like the immunity for Coronavirus doesn't last as long for other diseases we have vaccines for. The vaccines work best when the time duration is long (get a few shots, be immune your entire life...or 7 years...or as is the case with other flu's - only 6 months to a year).

fromderinside is saying that it looks like the Coronavirus immunity time period is shorter (I think I saw a window of around 3-6 months). As you mentioned, it also appears to be affected by the severity of the load, so for you and your wife, you may have a longer time period. For those who are asymptomatic, it may be 3 months only...which would be an issue for a vaccine to be truly effective on a grand scale. 3 months in a global supply chain is nothing when it takes 1+ month just to ship via ocean travel.

I don't know what the gross weight of a vaccine is, but it can't be more than a few grams. A C-130 can carry over 19,000 kilograms and there are over 2500 of those planes in service.... I think the bottleneck is going to be in production/QC.
Again, though - it would have to be given to virtually everyone all at once or it becomes a tail-chasing exercise.

 

[ZiprHead]

Gun Nut,
I think you are misreading fromderinside's post. You are both saying the same thing.

fromderinside: "immunity is very limited in duration"

Gun Nut: "If your body didn't reduce the the amount of antibodies it produces in response to every specific infection you ever have had in your life in absence of the infection, your immune system would spend all its time and energy producing unneeded proteins, wasting resources and flooding your blood with them for no reason."

In other words, there /can be/ an element of time for how long the immunity lasts. It looks like the immunity for Coronavirus doesn't last as long for other diseases we have vaccines for. The vaccines work best when the time duration is long (get a few shots, be immune your entire life...or 7 years...or as is the case with other flu's - only 6 months to a year).

fromderinside is saying that it looks like the Coronavirus immunity time period is shorter (I think I saw a window of around 3-6 months). As you mentioned, it also appears to be affected by the severity of the load, so for you and your wife, you may have a longer time period. For those who are asymptomatic, it may be 3 months only...which would be an issue for a vaccine to be truly effective on a grand scale. 3 months in a global supply chain is nothing when it takes 1+ month just to ship via ocean travel.

I don't know what the gross weight of a vaccine is, but it can't be more than a few grams. A C-130 can carry over 19,000 kilograms and there are over 2500 of those planes in service.... I think the bottleneck is going to be in production/QC.
Again, though - it would have to be given to virtually everyone all at once or it becomes a tail-chasing exercise.

I think it's going to be quite a while before a good vaccine is available. Two trials have already been halted, one of the test subjects in one of those trials died.