The World-O-Meter Thread

[bilby]

At one extreme, if everyone was tested every morning and every night and knew their test results in an hour, then isolated for two weeks if positive or in close contact w/positive... it would immediately cut new case numbers, and would soon be over.

Would not be a bad idea if you could make many billions of these tests (a one month supply for every American would take almost 10 billion tests!) and those rapid tests were reliable. As it stands the rapid ones are far less reliable than the PCR tests that take longer.

Of course mask use and distancing can "flatten the curve" to the extent that the public will adopt those practices, but because people are idiots, testing is probably going to be the way out of this absent a vaccine or meerikle cure.

Vaccines are coming, the question is only how effective the first candidate to be approved will be.

It will all be over by Christmas.

Of course, there's no reason to believe it will be this coming Christmas. Or the next one. Perhaps the one after that.

 

[ZiprHead]

Would not be a bad idea if you could make many billions of these tests (a one month supply for every American would take almost 10 billion tests!) and those rapid tests were reliable. As it stands the rapid ones are far less reliable than the PCR tests that take longer.



Vaccines are coming, the question is only how effective the first candidate to be approved will be.

It will all be over by Christmas.

Of course, there's no reason to believe it will be this coming Christmas. Or the next one. Perhaps the one after that.

According to the trumps, it'll be all over next week right after the election.

 

[Jokodo]

Would not be a bad idea if you could make many billions of these tests (a one month supply for every American would take almost 10 billion tests!) and those rapid tests were reliable. As it stands the rapid ones are far less reliable than the PCR tests that take longer.



Vaccines are coming, the question is only how effective the first candidate to be approved will be.

It will all be over by Christmas.

That's what they said in 1914.

 

[Elixir]

Would not be a bad idea if you could make many billions of these tests (a one month supply for every American would take almost 10 billion tests!) and those rapid tests were reliable. As it stands the rapid ones are far less reliable than the PCR tests that take longer.



Vaccines are coming, the question is only how effective the first candidate to be approved will be.

It will all be over by Christmas.

Of course, there's no reason to believe it will be this coming Christmas. Or the next one. Perhaps the one after that.

Two weeks. Donny sez.

 

[ZiprHead]

Would not be a bad idea if you could make many billions of these tests (a one month supply for every American would take almost 10 billion tests!) and those rapid tests were reliable. As it stands the rapid ones are far less reliable than the PCR tests that take longer.



Vaccines are coming, the question is only how effective the first candidate to be approved will be.

It will all be over by Christmas.

Of course, there's no reason to believe it will be this coming Christmas. Or the next one. Perhaps the one after that.

Two weeks. Donny sez.

Was Donny the contractor in The Money Pit?

 

[Shadowy Man]

Would not be a bad idea if you could make many billions of these tests (a one month supply for every American would take almost 10 billion tests!) and those rapid tests were reliable. As it stands the rapid ones are far less reliable than the PCR tests that take longer.



Vaccines are coming, the question is only how effective the first candidate to be approved will be.

It will all be over by Christmas.

Of course, there's no reason to believe it will be this coming Christmas. Or the next one. Perhaps the one after that.

Two weeks. Donny sez.

Then he’ll release his health care plan.

 

[Rhea]

Two weeks. Donny sez.

Then he’ll release his health care plan.

And Donny Jr. Saying, "Deaths are way down"

 

[dannyk]

Now over 100k !

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I feel like there is a small fire in the living room and everyone else is just sitting there like nothing is wrong.

Don’t worry, it’ll burn itself out.

 

[barbos]

Still not as bad as France or Czechia (per capita that is)
You need to get to 300K per day to compete.

 

[Elixir]

Still not as bad as France or Czechia (per capita that is)
You need to get to 300K per day to compete.

What are you talking about? MAGA USA has 709 deaths per million people, France only 560.
Sure, they have more cases per capita. But obviously the weak girly Macron Virus isn't as lethal as the manly Trump Virus.

 

[Rhea]

I feel like there is a small fire in the living room and everyone else is just sitting there like nothing is wrong.

Don’t worry, it’ll burn itself out.

That's exactly what it feels like.

 

[Elixir]

I do not know what it will peak at - best guess under 100k and about the beginning of August.
... as more people get infected, they will develop immunity (at least for a while, but memory T and B cells mean likely ongoing immunity in absence of serum antibodies) and thus R will go lower. Since R is close to 1 already, due to a combination of social distancing, mask and other measures and the acquired immunity, it will not take long for it to go below 1

Whistling in the dark is a well known means of self delusion.

You are the deluded one.

Sometimes it helps preserve the sanity of the whistler; good luck with that.
Calling it "reasonable" makes it easier to convince yourself, right?

All you have is gainsaying, without offering any arguments as to why my analysis is wrong.
In any case, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. We shall know soon enough who is right.

I guess it's soon enough now. It's plain to see that your Happy Talk in July was just that.
Right, Derec?



I do appreciate that you have laid off the Happy Talk bullshit lately, though.

 

[Derec]

I guess it's soon enough now. It's plain to see that your Happy Talk in July was just that.

1. It was never "Happy Talk". It was always just a reality check to your "Doom and Gloom" talk.
2. I was right about the peak of wavelet 1b, wasn't I? Wavelet 1c is a different phenomenon, mostly affecting rural and other areas that were not affected in a major way during 1a and 1b.

I will offer a prediction for the wavelet 1c. I think it will most likely peak by mid-November, or by the end of the month if we are very unlucky.
I base this on two things:
1. Saturation. There is a limited pool of people most likely to be infected (either because of their profession or their behavior in personal life like eating out and not wearing masks) and 1c has been going for about a month. By now, it is starting to run out of "dry wood". Indeed, new case curves in several of the hardest hit states are flattening already.
2. Elections. I am sure the elections have led to a lot of transmission over the last month. Between rallies and people standing in line for early voting, a lot of people were exposed because we are in an election year. That avenue of of transmission will go away next Thursday. It takes up to a week to start feeling symptoms and a few days to get PCR results back, which places latest detection of those infected on Tuesday around the middle of the month.

I do appreciate that you have laid off the Happy Talk bullshit reality checks lately, though.

(FIFY)
Mostly due to lack of time to respond adequately to this thread. I shall write more soon.

 

[Derec]

Still not as bad as France or Czechia (per capita that is)
You need to get to 300K per day to compete.

What are you talking about? MAGA USA has 709 deaths per million people, France only 560.
Sure, they have more cases per capita. But obviously the weak girly Macron Virus isn't as lethal as the manly Trump Virus.

You are (deliberately?) confusing new per capita cases and cumulative per capita deaths.

 

[Derec]

I feel like there is a small fire in the living room and everyone else is just sitting there like nothing is wrong.

Don’t worry, it’ll burn itself out.

Well, eventually it will. Doesn't man that it won't do much damage in the meantime.

 

[Derec]

Now over 100k !

Daily numbers have a lot of noise as well as periodic fluctuations. Therefore using a 7 day running average is the best metric here.
And the 7 day average is 82.7k as of today.

 

[Derec]

And Donny Jr. Saying, "Deaths are way down"

Compared to case numbers, deaths are down significantly. That is probably due both to more testing (increasing the denominator) and better treatment (decreasing the numerator).

 

[Derec]

It will all be over by Christmas.

Of course, there's no reason to believe it will be this coming Christmas. Or the next one. Perhaps the one after that.

First vaccines are probably going to be approved by this Winter, and by Spring we should have enough vaccine to vaccinate everybody who wants to get one. And there will probably be several approved vaccines too. Even if vaccines are delayed and only get approved say next March, enough should be produced by Summer.

So while there is no reason to believe the pandemic will be over by Christmas (although wavelet 1c will be largely over by then) but at the same time there is no reason to believe the pandemic will last until next Christmas either. Even in the unlikely event that no vaccine will be approved next year, by next Christmas we will be close to herd immunity naturally.

 

[prideandfall]

It will all be over by Christmas.

Of course, there's no reason to believe it will be this coming Christmas. Or the next one. Perhaps the one after that.

First vaccines are probably going to be approved by this Winter, and by Spring we shoudl have enough vaccine to vaccinate everybody who wants to get one. And there will probably be several approved vaccines too.

So while there is no reason to believe the pandemic will be over by Christmas (although wavelet 1c will be largely over by then) but at the same time there is no reason to believe the pandemic will last until next Christmas either.

yeah cuz if there's one thing the US is renowned for, it's having a population that trusts vaccines and will be eager to go out of their way to get one.