The World-O-Meter Thread

[Loren Pechtel]

Exactly. I've been trying to hammer this home to anyone that will listen (and occasionally even those that won't). It doesn't help that some of them are religious and inherently dubious about evolution, regardless of the actual science.

Maybe the next iteration will be less contagious and more deadly, therefore more effective at wiping out the deniers.
But that would fly in the face of evolutionary theory - things that kill their hosts tend not to last long.

Less contagious is unlikely for that reason - a less contagious strain will be swamped by its more contagious cousins.

But deadly viruses don't last long because all the hosts are dead. A highly deadly and highly contagious disease with a long infectious period before symptoms develop is quite capable of killing a sizeable fraction of humanity before the death toll causes it to run out of hosts.

The 1348 pandemic killed about a third of the population of Europe. Perhaps more. Some cities had 90%+ mortality rates.

Disagree--a truly deadly virus can burn a population to the ground by not being so deadly in some other host. The Black Death was such an example--the bloodsuckers that carried it had a short enough life cycle that it wasn't going to wipe them out.

 

[bilby]

Less contagious is unlikely for that reason - a less contagious strain will be swamped by its more contagious cousins.

But deadly viruses don't last long because all the hosts are dead. A highly deadly and highly contagious disease with a long infectious period before symptoms develop is quite capable of killing a sizeable fraction of humanity before the death toll causes it to run out of hosts.

The 1348 pandemic killed about a third of the population of Europe. Perhaps more. Some cities had 90%+ mortality rates.

Disagree--a truly deadly virus can burn a population to the ground by not being so deadly in some other host. The Black Death was such an example--the bloodsuckers that carried it had a short enough life cycle that it wasn't going to wipe them out.

You don't know that, because the actual disease that caused the 1348 pandemic isn't known. Bubonic plague is one of the leading hypotheses, but it's possible that it was a viral disease (influenza has even been suggested, with some credibility). As the actual disease is unknown, we also don't know how it was transmitted.

The main reason that bubonic plague is considered a strong contender as the 1348 disease is that it fits fairly well with a cycle of known plague outbreaks in later centuries, notably the plague of 1666, which was certainly bubonic plague. Our understanding of the 1666 outbreak is far better than that of earlier epidemics, because it coincided with the start of modern science, and the first keeping of meticulous observational records with minimal opinion and superstitious bias. However the 1348 disease was FAR deadlier, and the cycle of bubonic plague outbreaks is not sufficiently regular as to give more than a hint that 1348 might belong on the sequence.

By the way, the 1348 pandemic wasn't called the Black Death by those who experienced it; That's a name used by later historians, based on the assumption that it was the same disease as the 1666 plague (which was called 'Black Death' by contemporaries). Those who described the 1348 pandemic referred to it most commonly as 'blue fever', probably due to the cyanotic appearance of its victims - which perhaps hints at a respiratory disease.

Regardless, it's a big stretch to suggest that we understand the vector(s) of the 1348 pandemic.

 

[Elixir]

a truly deadly virus can burn a population to the ground by not being so deadly in some other host. The Black Death was such an example--the bloodsuckers that carried it had a short enough life cycle that it wasn't going to wipe them out.

You don't know that, because the actual disease that caused the 1348 pandemic isn't known. Bubonic plague is one of the leading hypotheses, but it's possible that it was a viral disease (influenza has even been suggested, with some credibility). As the actual disease is unknown, we also don't know how it was transmitted.

The main reason that bubonic plague is considered a strong contender as the 1348 disease is that it fits fairly well with a cycle of known plague outbreaks in later centuries, notably the plague of 1666, which was certainly bubonic plague. Our understanding of the 1666 outbreak is far better than that of earlier epidemics, because it coincided with the start of modern science, and the first keeping of meticulous observational records with minimal opinion and superstitious bias. However the 1348 disease was FAR deadlier, and the cycle of bubonic plague outbreaks is not sufficiently regular as to give more than a hint that 1348 might belong on the sequence.

By the way, the 1348 pandemic wasn't called the Black Death by those who experienced it; That's a name used by later historians, based on the assumption that it was the same disease as the 1666 plague (which was called 'Black Death' by contemporaries). Those who described the 1348 pandemic referred to it most commonly as 'blue fever', probably due to the cyanotic appearance of its victims - which perhaps hints at a respiratory disease.

Regardless, it's a big stretch to suggest that we understand the vector(s) of the 1348 pandemic.

Yeah, all that (and thanks for the interesting details). But what Loren said could still apply to some iteration of coronavirus.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

a truly deadly virus can burn a population to the ground by not being so deadly in some other host. The Black Death was such an example--the bloodsuckers that carried it had a short enough life cycle that it wasn't going to wipe them out.

You don't know that, because the actual disease that caused the 1348 pandemic isn't known. Bubonic plague is one of the leading hypotheses, but it's possible that it was a viral disease (influenza has even been suggested, with some credibility). As the actual disease is unknown, we also don't know how it was transmitted.

The main reason that bubonic plague is considered a strong contender as the 1348 disease is that it fits fairly well with a cycle of known plague outbreaks in later centuries, notably the plague of 1666, which was certainly bubonic plague. Our understanding of the 1666 outbreak is far better than that of earlier epidemics, because it coincided with the start of modern science, and the first keeping of meticulous observational records with minimal opinion and superstitious bias. However the 1348 disease was FAR deadlier, and the cycle of bubonic plague outbreaks is not sufficiently regular as to give more than a hint that 1348 might belong on the sequence.

By the way, the 1348 pandemic wasn't called the Black Death by those who experienced it; That's a name used by later historians, based on the assumption that it was the same disease as the 1666 plague (which was called 'Black Death' by contemporaries). Those who described the 1348 pandemic referred to it most commonly as 'blue fever', probably due to the cyanotic appearance of its victims - which perhaps hints at a respiratory disease.

Regardless, it's a big stretch to suggest that we understand the vector(s) of the 1348 pandemic.

Yeah, all that (and thanks for the interesting details). But what Loren said could still apply to some iteration of coronavirus.

Besides, I was talking about a general pattern--a truly deadly disease can survive if it has another host for whom it isn't so deadly. For example, rabies and bats. Rabies isn't viable in most species, it would quickly burn out and go extinct. It's slow enough in bats that it doesn't burn out. Ebola probably is the same way, although the host has not been found.

There's also the truly deadly but slow diseases--HIV has a 100% mortality rate (not counting treatment) but didn't burn out because it kills so slowly. (Yes, there are those who are immune, but they don't get infected in the first place so you wouldn't really count them in terms of mortality rate.)

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So in the beginning, 10x the known cases for actual cases. Now we are approaching 30,000,000 people, we really can't do that anymore, otherwise, that'd mean the entire US got the disease.

So in the last few months, we at 3x or 5x the confirmed cases? Presuming a rough 150k a day in confirmed cases for the last three months, that'd mean 67 million with a 5x multiplier. Take a 10x for all the cases before it, that 130 million. That is > 50% total.

Yes, the multipliers are not gospel. Are we nearing natural herd immunity? Are the numbers dropping because we are running out of people to infect?

 

[Artemus]

Only 185 to go to reach the half-million dead milestone. Can we reach it tonight? Do we care anymore?

 

[Politesse]

Only 185 to go to reach the half-million dead milestone. Can we reach it tonight? Do we care anymore?

No one gives a shit about the dead or the living; petty individual freedoms are worth any amount of suffering.

 

[Artemus]

Only 185 to go to reach the half-million dead milestone. Can we reach it tonight? Do we care anymore?

No one gives a shit about the dead or the living; petty individual freedoms are worth any amount of suffering.

So sadly true.

The meter rolled over 9 short of 500,000. Guess we'll have to wait a bit more.

 

[Politesse]

I went out to drop a package off at the post office today, and was shocked at the number of people taking no precautions whatsoever. So I'm feeling a bit antipathetic toward my fellow-citizens perhaps to fault. But, well, the numbers keep climbing.

 

[Elixir]

I went out to drop a package off at the post office today, and was shocked at the number of people taking no precautions whatsoever. So I'm feeling a bit antipathetic toward my fellow-citizens perhaps to fault. But, well, the numbers keep climbing.

Yeah, now is the time complacency sets in. Active cases, new cases, deaths, hospitalizations are all steeply down. It's a shame, because if people would simply listen to science and behave themselves, we could be in good shape in six or eight weeks.

 

[Politesse]

I went out to drop a package off at the post office today, and was shocked at the number of people taking no precautions whatsoever. So I'm feeling a bit antipathetic toward my fellow-citizens perhaps to fault. But, well, the numbers keep climbing.

Yeah, now is the time complacency sets in. Active cases, new cases, deaths, hospitalizations are all steeply down. It's a shame, because if people would simply listen to science and behave themselves, we could be in good shape in six or eight weeks.

You're just as dead if you die during a peak or a trough. I'm sure not taking any chances.

 

[Artemus]

Only 185 to go to reach the half-million dead milestone. Can we reach it tonight? Do we care anymore?

No one gives a shit about the dead or the living; petty individual freedoms are worth any amount of suffering.

So sadly true.

The meter rolled over 9 short of 500,000. Guess we'll have to wait a bit more.

Yesterday's tally is up to 500,007 with the corrections. I'll celebrate Feb. 16th as the day. Now to count the days until 1,000,000.

 

[Worldtraveller]

Sadly, this is better than I expected the US to be at this point, but we've still got a long way to go.

I think we'll break the 1 million deaths (and that's just sadly staggering) before this is over. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Elixir]

I went out to drop a package off at the post office today, and was shocked at the number of people taking no precautions whatsoever. So I'm feeling a bit antipathetic toward my fellow-citizens perhaps to fault. But, well, the numbers keep climbing.

Yeah, now is the time complacency sets in. Active cases, new cases, deaths, hospitalizations are all steeply down. It's a shame, because if people would simply listen to science and behave themselves, we could be in good shape in six or eight weeks.

You're just as dead if you die during a peak or a trough. I'm sure not taking any chances.

^ THAT!

I do wish everyone could find the courage to at least acknowledge that basic fact.
I'm tickled pink to have my first shot done and 2nd one scheduled. It's sobering to realize that not much will change once I have the full amount of immunity the vaccine confers. But I do plan to out to eat at least once! Our small town restaurants have been heroically trying to adapt, but sadly at least a third of them are already gone forever. I'll try to support the survivors ...

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Sadly, this is better than I expected the US to be at this point, but we've still got a long way to go.

I think we'll break the 1 million deaths (and that's just sadly staggering) before this is over. I hope I'm wrong.

I'm sure we will if you count the people who die of the damage later. At least since he lost I don't think my Trump 2020k! line will come true.

 

[Elixir]

This is what I've been fearing for a few weeks - that the super encouraging decrease in new cases since early January would start leveling out in response to people starting to feel more at ease. Now we have a homegrown variant that might be the worst yet;

https://www.latimes.com/science/new...J4PrB2GZhDsU5fboykDWBorrJw18ViNS8GI_7ZsTjl7CU

PLEASE! Whether or not you and the people you know have been or are getting vaccinated or not, PLEASE keep distancing and masking up!
Hopefully this is not the inflection point it looks like right now - if the decrease rate is going to level off, I'd hope it would do so somewhere south of a 50k 7-day average... but I fear that the stalling point will be the same as it was after last July; it decreased slowly until it was below 40k for a few days, and then all hell broke loose. We can't afford to let that happen again!

 

[Artemus]

This is what I've been fearing for a few weeks - that the super encouraging decrease in new cases since early January would start leveling out in response to people starting to feel more at ease.

I came on to say the same thing. The flattening trend continued today, and worse yet, fatalities are going up the past few days. Maybe this is just a statistical blip, but I don't like what I'm seeing...

 

[Elixir]

This is what I've been fearing for a few weeks - that the super encouraging decrease in new cases since early January would start leveling out in response to people starting to feel more at ease.

I came on to say the same thing. The flattening trend continued today, and worse yet, fatalities are going up the past few days. Maybe this is just a statistical blip, but I don't like what I'm seeing...

Monday is March 1st, by which time Derec tells us that daily deaths should be at or below 600. Maybe I should have taken his money... unless there are zero deaths between now and then, his Happy Talk will have missed by a factor of 3 or 4, as I predicted.
Meanwhile, I'm hoping against hope that this weekend's reports show new lows for the year in new cases. If not, it portends a bleak outlook for the next month or two.

 

[Elixir]

Seven day average deaths went below 2000 (1996) on 3/1. New cases (7-day avg) are at 66,307 today, 3/2.
KS, MO, and NE didn't report.
Looks like the new cases and deaths should decline further at least in the short run. But after what Texas and Mississippi goobermintz did today, you'd almost think they're making money off the pandemic and are trying to keep it going.

 

[Worldtraveller]

We also just had a big superspreader event known as CPAC. Let's see how much impact that has on the numbers.