Trump Will Likely Win

[Tigers!]

It's not strange. It's a diminution of the things that white people go through too. When you essentially tell someone who's struggling that their struggle isn't real because other people have it worse then the response is going to be a gigantic Fuck You. And "Fuck you" is what Trump has inspired in these people.

But Democrats aren’t telling white people that. If they somehow are hearing that, maybe they have been brainwashed by Fox News?

I hate Trump with every fiber of my being. I hate what he's inspired, but what he did tap into was decades worth of dismissive ridicule at the hands of the left.

It simply isn’t true that the “left,” whatever that is — it certainly is not mainstream Democrats — have dismissively ridiculed working-class white people. Maybe they THINK Democrats have done this, because for four decades Faux News has been TELLING them this.

The vast, vast majority of white people aren't privileged. It's an absurd notion, and no one should be expected to tolerate absurdity of any kind. Throw in actual racism, shocking ignorance, and poor reading skills, and what you're going to get is the hate that Trump has so successfully tapped into.

Throughout our history, white people have been racially privileged. That is true regardless of a white person’s economic status.

I see nothing willfully malicious in seeking a just society for all.

Democrats have indeed done this. It sure isn't the Communist Party USA that has perpetuated it.

I went to college relatively late in life. I'd always dismissed conservative concerns about universities teaching wacky leftist nonsense. Well, it turns out there is some merit to that. I had to sit through a "Keystone"* course where the professor claimed Jamie Lee Curtis wasn't a woman and that "The white people in this very room" were oppressing POC simply by being white. That actually happened. Sociology was especially bad to the point that "soft racism" is an appropriate term to describe it.

It didn't cause me to retaliate by running to Fox News and voting Republican, but I did come away with a more informed understanding of what conservatives were talking about.

The term "white privilege" does come from the left and your comment that whites have always been privileged regardless of economic circumstances is exactly what I'm talking about. It is dismissive and woefully inaccurate.

Certainly Fox News and the shrieking dildo Rush Limbaugh that helped spawn FN shares a lot of the blame for us being on the brink of authoritarian conservatism. However, it's reasonable to wonder that had so many millions of white people not been so demeaned and ridiculed for no other reason than for being white, would we being fretting over battleground states right now where a few thousand votes may be the end of America's democracy.

As a liberal, it's easy and accurate to point out how awful Trumpism is, but the lack of self reflection pertaining to this issue may very well be the last little stone that helped tip the scales in favor of authoritarianism.

*To be fair, one of the Keystone courses wass about South American cultures and racial diversity. It was taught by an old guy anthropologist who dressed like Indiana Jones. I came away from that course feeling very enlightened on the subject. I appreciate that I was made to take that class. No one was bashed, no one was blamed. That's the way awareness and diversity should be taught.

Claiming that Jamie Lee Curtis isn't a woman sounds like something a right-winger would say.

You have indeed met some unusual right wingers. It's not the "right" that has trouble with defining what a woman is. It is the "left"

No, it is always right-wingers asking "what is a woman"? They obviously don't know the answer, hence why they ask this question.

Why conclude that the "right" does not know what the answer is? Asking the question of another usually implies the wish to know what the other person has as an answer.

On a separate topic - about the attitudes of Democrats towards so-called "working class people". It is a no-win scenario. One shouldn't pander to the prejudices of various groups. If they can't be criticized then they see themselves as dictators towards the rest of society.
Most of these people aren't working class in the traditional sense of being manual workers who endure harsh conditions and are very poor.
Many of them have a good life, and are actually middle class. The ones who are more like the real working class are discriminated against by these people. By the way, that is also a generalization, as I am sure many rural people are friendly towards immigrants, and it is the bigotry of the Republican leaders that colours everyone's perceptions of what rural people and poorer city whites are like.

Amazing how only

Rudeness and inconsiderateness are non-colour specific. At work I can meet rude Kiwis, Pacific islanders, Filipinoes, Poms, Sudanese, Aussies etc.

I bet that etc. doesn't include any Canadians.... :-D

I've not met many Canadians at all. Don't know whether I am blessed or cursed because of that.

 

[Tigers!]

Rudeness and inconsiderateness are non-colour specific. At work I can meet rude Kiwis, Pacific islanders, Filipinoes, Poms, Sudanese, Aussies etc.

I bet that etc. doesn't include any Canadians.... :-D

Maybe one day, but this MAGA fever spread up north. When I was in Bruce Peninsula in 2022, drove by a home with a large handmade "Fuck you Trudeau" sign hanging from the garage. I was assuming he meant the Canadian leader, not the comic artist.

I am quite sure that some people fell the same way about Trudeau's father, Pierre, in the 70s and 80s.
No point blaming Trump for things he did not cause. He has more than enough for blame to be apportioned.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Rudeness and inconsiderateness are non-colour specific. At work I can meet rude Kiwis, Pacific islanders, Filipinoes, Poms, Sudanese, Aussies etc.

I bet that etc. doesn't include any Canadians.... :-D

Maybe one day, but this MAGA fever spread up north. When I was in Bruce Peninsula in 2022, drove by a home with a large handmade "Fuck you Trudeau" sign hanging from the garage. I was assuming he meant the Canadian leader, not the comic artist.

I am quite sure that some people fell the same way about Trudeau's father, Pierre, in the 70s and 80s.
No point blaming Trump for things he did not cause. He has more than enough for blame to be apportioned.

What the fuck would you know about Canada?

 

[Tigers!]

Rudeness and inconsiderateness are non-colour specific. At work I can meet rude Kiwis, Pacific islanders, Filipinoes, Poms, Sudanese, Aussies etc.

I bet that etc. doesn't include any Canadians.... :-D

Maybe one day, but this MAGA fever spread up north. When I was in Bruce Peninsula in 2022, drove by a home with a large handmade "Fuck you Trudeau" sign hanging from the garage. I was assuming he meant the Canadian leader, not the comic artist.

I am quite sure that some people fell the same way about Trudeau's father, Pierre, in the 70s and 80s.
No point blaming Trump for things he did not cause. He has more than enough for blame to be apportioned.

What the fuck would you know about Canada?

Now, now. No need to get nasty.
Merely commenting about how people are very similar all over the world and across time. Justin T is felt about a certain way in parts of Canada and no doubt his father was felt of in a similar way.

 

[Swammerdami]

One reason Trump is likely to win is the huge amount of cheating the Republicans do. One of many many examples is Elon Musk's illegal million-dollar lottery to encourage Trump voters to register. This is a violation of federal law punishable by five years in prison.

But there's no chance that Musk or any criminal billionaire will ever serve time in prison. Even if they have no real defense, they can deploy battalions of lawyers to postpone, postpone, postpone. (Were I to become dictator I think I would establish something like England's  Star Chamber.)

. . . Merely commenting about how people are very similar all over the world and across time.

Nitpick: No they aren't. Although one can find outliers everywhere, the modes and means of personality vary noticeably among cultures. For examples, Thais tend to be honest and upbeat, Parisians are self-confident and candid. Americans traveling abroad are often a bit brash.

 

[Axulus]

Right now the odds very much favor Trump winning all the states from 2020 and adding Georgia and Arizona. This makes Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania all must win for Harris. And all three of these are very close, basically toss ups if not slightly favoring Trump in the latest polling.

And this, assuming Nevada also goes her way, would put Harris at 276 electoral votes. Ripe for Trump and his cronies to turn up the disinformation campaign to the maximum about another stolen election.

Polls do matter. They aren't everything, but they offer the most objective piece of information we have available to evaluate the likelihood of a Trump or Harris victory. There is a strong historical correlation between polling data and the eventual winner this close to the election.

I am mentally preparing for a Trump victory and you should to. If he doesn't win, that will be fantastic, but let's not delude ourselves about the very real possibility Trump will win this.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

Certainly Fox News and the shrieking dildo Rush Limbaugh that helped spawn FN shares a lot of the blame for us being on the brink of authoritarian conservatism. However, it's reasonable to wonder that had so many millions of white people not been so demeaned and ridiculed for no other reason than for being white, would we being fretting over battleground states right now where a few thousand votes may be the end of America's democracy.

Historically marginalized groups in America—whether Black, Indigenous, or immigrant communities—have not collectively sought to destroy the nation or its democracy. On the contrary, they've fought for equal treatment, civil rights, and inclusion under the same democratic principles America claims to stand for. Movements like the Civil Rights Movement and others have been about securing basic rights that were promised but denied, not about revenge or dismantling the country.

What you're describing, however, is a reaction from those who feel attacked for their identity. But we should question what that says about those people. Instead of seeking justice or fairness, there's a rush to undermine democracy itself. This shift towards authoritarianism isn’t about fairness, but a rejection of progress toward equality. The fact that people who feel 'demeaned' are willing to support leaders and policies that endanger democratic principles speaks volumes about their priorities. While marginalized communities have sought equality through democratic means, those defending this reaction seem to justify extreme measures in response to feeling unfairly criticized. Shouldn't that make us question their commitment to the ideals they claim are being threatened?

You appear to be deflecting. I think I've been clear about the point I'm making, that being that Democrats and liberals were quite short sighted and smug in neglecting and insulting a huge demographic.

For example, what's with this "white people problems" bullshit phrase/meme among young people and leftist news outlets? Do I really need to go into detail about why that's so dismissive and insulting? This ridiculous point of view is pervasive among liberals. All that was needed to mobilize a large segment of nonvoters was for someone to come along and tap into that, which is precisely what Trump did simply by being an asshole. I don't think he's bright enough to have purposely done that, but the people around him and outlets like Fox quickly recognized it and went after it.

This is no excuse and no justification for the authoritarianism we're so close to being subjected to, and I haven't argued that.

Hell, at this point I think I've become resigned to the idea that Trump is going to win and maybe this is my way of dealing with it. I do believe I'm right, but this retrospection won't mean a damn thing and certainly won't be helpful if tyranny comes to town. If Harris does win however, I think conversations about the many left-of-center problems that currently go unexamined need to begin to be addressed.

 

[Gospel]

Not deflecting—just clarifying their true response to marginalization. Rather than seeking justice through equality, they're pursuing retribution, even at the cost of undermining our democracy.

 

[Elixir]

even at the cost of undermining our democracy.

Huh?
That’s actually the point.
Democracy is what threatens to depose them. “Retribution” against imaginary enemies is simply cover for doing what’s needed to prevent overturning the institution of white supremacy. And democracy is the main thing threatening it at this juncture.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Certainly Fox News and the shrieking dildo Rush Limbaugh that helped spawn FN shares a lot of the blame for us being on the brink of authoritarian conservatism. However, it's reasonable to wonder that had so many millions of white people not been so demeaned and ridiculed for no other reason than for being white, would we being fretting over battleground states right now where a few thousand votes may be the end of America's democracy.

I'm curious, when the fuck did that ever actually happen? I'm part of the new wave. When American atrocities were taught in school and fairly. At no point were we shunned. We were being taught history. You seem to have bought into the lies by the right that this shaming ever existed.

As a liberal, it's easy and accurate to point out how awful Trumpism is, but the lack of self reflection pertaining to this issue may very well be the last little stone that helped tip the scales in favor of authoritarianism.

Liberals haven't done shit to formant this ugly movement. We've seen this before in the US. We saw it the Nazis failed attempt to gain a foothold in the US in the late 20s / early 30s. We saw it with Strom Thurmond's run for President. We saw it with George Wallace's run for President. They all lost. Their have been those fighting progress since our founding and their desire to maintain slavery. With the passage of the Civil Rights Act, the GOP looked to mobilize those angry that blacks were no longer going to be allowed to be a lower caste in American society. By the early 80s, they had radio programming and then they expand their propaganda to Cable. They'd ridicule human decency as "PC" and then later "woke". They cringed at gay marriage and gay rights. They are scared there will be no one left to look down at.

And now we have Trump. So I don't want to hear about how the liberals are partly to blame. The liberals have no power in their country. The Democrats only win by being 1980s GOP-lites who favor social progress.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

Certainly Fox News and the shrieking dildo Rush Limbaugh that helped spawn FN shares a lot of the blame for us being on the brink of authoritarian conservatism. However, it's reasonable to wonder that had so many millions of white people not been so demeaned and ridiculed for no other reason than for being white, would we being fretting over battleground states right now where a few thousand votes may be the end of America's democracy.

I'm curious, when the fuck did that ever actually happen? I'm part of the new wave. When American atrocities were taught in school and fairly. At no point were we shunned. We were being taught history. You seem to have bought into the lies by the right that this shaming ever existed.

As a liberal, it's easy and accurate to point out how awful Trumpism is, but the lack of self reflection pertaining to this issue may very well be the last little stone that helped tip the scales in favor of authoritarianism.

Liberals haven't done shit to formant this ugly movement. We've seen this before in the US. We saw it the Nazis failed attempt to gain a foothold in the US in the late 20s / early 30s. We saw it with Strom Thurmond's run for President. We saw it with George Wallace's run for President. They all lost. Their have been those fighting progress since our founding and their desire to maintain slavery. With the passage of the Civil Rights Act, the GOP looked to mobilize those angry that blacks were no longer going to be allowed to be a lower caste in American society. By the early 80s, they had radio programming and then they expand their propaganda to Cable. They'd ridicule human decency as "PC" and then later "woke". They cringed at gay marriage and gay rights. They are scared there will be no one left to look down at.

And now we have Trump. So I don't want to hear about how the liberals are partly to blame. The liberals have no power in their country. The Democrats only win by being 1980s GOP-lites who favor social progress.

That's fine. Engaging in whataboutism has worked very well for the GOP, so maybe it'll work for us.

This isn't about the progressivism that conservatives have obviously blocked at every turn since... hell, forever. It's about the mistakes liberals have not only made, but allowed to happen in reference to a very specific demographic. It's not a general argument, it's a pinpointed one which I believe has merit in our shitty electoral system. It's not about idealism, it's about very real practicality.

Do you deny that white males were mobilized by Trump?
Is your answer that it's because every single one of those mobilized people are irredeemable racists?

I despise Trump supporters with every fiber of my being and the fact that he's likely to win in less than two weeks, at least IMO, means the end of democracy in the U.S.

What I'm trying to get at is the stupidity and short sightedness of the American left of center. We don't share equal blame with the Trump crowd, but we have looked on and ridiculed millions of people that were up for grabs.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Certainly Fox News and the shrieking dildo Rush Limbaugh that helped spawn FN shares a lot of the blame for us being on the brink of authoritarian conservatism. However, it's reasonable to wonder that had so many millions of white people not been so demeaned and ridiculed for no other reason than for being white, would we being fretting over battleground states right now where a few thousand votes may be the end of America's democracy.

I'm curious, when the fuck did that ever actually happen? I'm part of the new wave. When American atrocities were taught in school and fairly. At no point were we shunned. We were being taught history. You seem to have bought into the lies by the right that this shaming ever existed.

As a liberal, it's easy and accurate to point out how awful Trumpism is, but the lack of self reflection pertaining to this issue may very well be the last little stone that helped tip the scales in favor of authoritarianism.

Liberals haven't done shit to formant this ugly movement. We've seen this before in the US. We saw it the Nazis failed attempt to gain a foothold in the US in the late 20s / early 30s. We saw it with Strom Thurmond's run for President. We saw it with George Wallace's run for President. They all lost. Their have been those fighting progress since our founding and their desire to maintain slavery. With the passage of the Civil Rights Act, the GOP looked to mobilize those angry that blacks were no longer going to be allowed to be a lower caste in American society. By the early 80s, they had radio programming and then they expand their propaganda to Cable. They'd ridicule human decency as "PC" and then later "woke". They cringed at gay marriage and gay rights. They are scared there will be no one left to look down at.

And now we have Trump. So I don't want to hear about how the liberals are partly to blame. The liberals have no power in their country. The Democrats only win by being 1980s GOP-lites who favor social progress.

That's fine. Engaging in whataboutism has worked very well for the GOP, so maybe it'll work for us.

What whataboutism?

This isn't about the progressivism that conservatives have obviously blocked at every turn since... hell, forever. It's about the mistakes liberals have not only made, but allowed to happen in reference to a very specific demographic. It's not a general argument, it's a pinpointed one which I believe has merit in our shitty electoral system. It's not about idealism, it's about very real practicality.

What mistakes?! Allow Nixon to go the Southern Strategy route? Saying people should be nicer to each other? That words do actually matter?

Your entire premise is based on a right-wing myth. There has been no shaming.

Do you deny that white males were mobilized by Trump?

40% or so of voting white males will vote for Harris. Those white males live in the same nation as the other 60%. What has made them immune to what apparently was caused by The Left Wing?

Regarding MAGA, MAGA mobilization started in 2009 in the astro-turf Tea Party movement when the likes of Fox News were planning widespread protests against a barely 6 month old Obama Administration, and started taking control over the GOP in 2012. You'll note, these two years are before Trump. Trump somehow became the face of a movement that has been out there a while.

Is your answer that it's because every single one of those mobilized people are irredeemable racists?

I must be new here and haven't explained what I've thought about this. That MAGA is virtually a causeless movement. That many in the MAGA are deplorable. That many in the GOP let it slide for judicial nominations. That many are so poorly informed that it is a imminent threat against our national security. And that many are true believers of the ills of America that don't actually exist.

 

[bilby]

Do you deny that white males were mobilized by Trump?
Is your answer that it's because every single one of those mobilized people are irredeemable racists?

That's just silly. They're not all racists of any kind.

Some are irredemable misogynists.

 

[robnisch]

MAGA
When was America great.
Most say the Boomer years, 50 and 60's.
Was that not when corporate taxes were high?

 

[Elixir]

MAGA
When was America great.
Most say the Boomer years, 50 and 60's.
Was that not when corporate taxes were high?

Yes. They don’t mention that part.

 

[Derec]

MAGA
When was America great.
Most say the Boomer years, 50 and 60's.
Was that not when corporate taxes were high?

I heard it said that both left and right pine for the 50s. The right wants to live there, the left wants to work there.

 

[Derec]

40% or so of voting white males will vote for Harris. Those white males live in the same nation as the other 60%. What has made them immune to what apparently was caused by The Left Wing?

Why do you think we are immune? I plan to vote for Kamala Harris. She and the Knucklehead are clearly the lesser of the weevils in the race.
That does not mean all of us are coconut-pilled or that we like the leftward lurch that the Democratic Party underwent in recent years.

 

[Gospel]

For example, what's with this "white people problems" bullshit phrase/meme among young people and leftist news outlets? Do I really need to go into detail about why that's so dismissive and insulting? This ridiculous point of view is pervasive among liberals. All that was needed to mobilize a large segment of nonvoters was for someone to come along and tap into that, which is precisely what Trump did simply by being an asshole. I don't think he's bright enough to have purposely done that, but the people around him and outlets like Fox quickly recognized it and went after it.

Colonel, I have to say, I’m really enjoying our conversation. It’s refreshing to exchange ideas, and I appreciate the depth you're bringing to this discussion. That said, I’d like to ask for one small favor as we continue: can we focus more on our own perspectives rather than the opinions of others, even though they’re important and directly related? My hope is that we both separate ourselves from the views of those who may share similar arguments and treat those outside perspectives as additional context, not as reflections of our personal stance. This way, we can dive deeper into what we believe.

With that said, I fully agree that dismissing someone's hardships is a problem. This is felt by both hardworking white Americans and hardworking minorities. The situation between these two groups reminds me of those predictable Hollywood love stories, where a big misunderstanding drives people apart. They spend so much time thinking the other person is the problem, only to later realize they’ve been on the same side all along. I think it may take another decade (edit correction100 years) or two before we fully get there in America, but the point stands.

Privilege doesn’t mean someone hasn’t struggled. It means that in some areas, others face additional barriers. For example, a white person might face economic struggles, but their race may not add extra challenges in areas like criminal justice or education, which many Black or Latino people regularly encounter. This doesn’t mean every white person doesn’t face racism or that every minority person succeeds with arbitrary challenges.

Minorities have been fighting for fair treatment under the law, not punishment for others. Equality doesn’t mean punishing white Americans—it means ensuring that everyone, regardless of race, has an equal opportunity to thrive. By equal opportunity, I don’t mean changing the rules to benefit one group over another (like affirmative action, which I personally think has run its course). I believe we’ve reached a point where anti-discrimination laws could stand without affirmative action, but that’s another debate entirely—sorry to digress. To me, equal opportunity means that no one faces arbitrary barriers.

Anyhow, your concerns about the rise of authoritarianism are valid. But what’s important is recognizing—and I believe you already do, based on our conversation—that fighting for equality and against systemic injustice is pro-democracy, not against it. Any movement that undermines democratic values, like marginalizing others, risks hurting everyone in the long run—including both hardworking white Americans and hardworking minorities.

 

[Derec]

Privilege doesn’t mean someone hasn’t struggled. It means that in some areas, others face additional barriers. For example, a white person might face economic struggles, but their race may not add extra challenges in areas like criminal justice or education, which many Black or Latino people regularly encounter.

For the last few decades, blacks and Latinos have had privilege when it comes to access to education. They could get into university or into professional schools such as med schools with significantly lower grades and scores than their white and Asian classmates. How is that not an example of privilege? Why are we still repeating the myth that blacks and Latinos face barriers when they do not?
Criminal justice is another complex issue. Yes, more blacks are incarcerated, but blacks also commit more crime on a per-capita basis. ~5x as much "non-negligent homicide" according to FBI, and higher rates of other violent crime like rape and robbery as well.

This doesn’t mean every white person doesn’t face racism or that every minority person succeeds with arbitrary challenges.

What it means though, is that situation from decades or even a century ago ("traditionally underprivileged") is taken as something that still applies today, even if it doesn't.

Minorities have been fighting for fair treatment under the law, not punishment for others.

We should not generalize of course, but the activists fighting for things like perpetual racial preferences or for reparations by race definitely want more than just "fight treatment under the law". I support that part, but reject the special treatment.

Equality doesn’t mean punishing white Americans—it means ensuring that everyone, regardless of race, has an equal opportunity to thrive.

Equity, on the other hand does. Equity says, wait, there are too few blacks in med school. We should give black applicants a preference in admissions so we have more black doctors. The correct approach would be to identify why black students are lagging behind and help them perform better, which starts before formal schooling begins frankly. But giving a preference based on race is easier and quicker, even if it does nothing about the underlying problem. In fact, it may make it worse. Why apply yourself in undergrad if you know your race will help you get in with relatively mediocre grades and scores?

By equal opportunity, I don’t mean changing the rules to benefit one group over another (like affirmative action, which I personally think has run its course). I believe we’ve reached a point where anti-discrimination laws could stand without affirmative action, but that’s another debate entirely—sorry to digress. To me, equal opportunity means that no one faces arbitrary barriers.

We agree there. But the problem is that race warriors hang on to racial preferences for dear life.

Anyhow, your concerns about the rise of authoritarianism are valid. But what’s important is recognizing—and I believe you already do, based on our conversation—that fighting for equality and against systemic injustice is pro-democracy, not against it. Any movement that undermines democratic values, like marginalizing others, risks hurting everyone in the long run—including both hardworking white Americans and hardworking minorities.

Agreed.

 

[Toni]

Why? Why is it so close? Is it really because of those evil, evil Palestinians refusing to cast a vote for genocide?

Certainly in places like Michigan where there are a lot of Muslims and where the vote is incredibly close.
Dearborn "Death to America" crowd may well give the presidency to Trump.

Besides, those evil, evil Palestinians do not have a problem with genocide. They have a problem with Jews not allowing Muslims to genocide them. They have a problem with Jews defending themselves from aggression and massacres.
They had no problem with what happened on 10/7, just with Israel striking Hamas in response. They do not have a problem with Hezbollah launching thousands of rockets at Israel, only with Israel striking Hezbollah back.
They do not have a problem with the Tehran regime arming terrorists, but have a problem with US sending weapons to Israel.

Or is it because middle class white males almost to a man are loyal to a fascist demagogue?

Really? To you, "white males" are the root of all problems, right?

"Ye blind guides, which strain at a gnat, and swallow a camel!"

Depends on how the camel is cooked.

Derec, Texas and New York have a higher percentage of Muslims in its population than does Michigan.

Michigan has had a significant cluster of Arab immigration for many years, some of whom are Muslim and some who are Christian. Immigrants from Lebanon ( mostly Christian) arrived in MI in the middle of the 19th century.