US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

[Shadowy Man]

Another one or two islamic terrorist attacks in the US, would make the race to the White house very interesting would it not?

Only if you're volunteering to be killed in one of those attacks. Otherwise, no, terrorist attacks don't make anything interesting.

 

[Rhea]

The things to watch for are the "out of the blue" occurences. Clinton gets indicted, or Trump outrages everybody with more over the top, unacceptable verbal idiocies. An out of nowhere scandal, or some wedge issue that overwhelms all reason. Or perhaps ISIL all but collapses, more ISIL leaders are killed by Obama's drones. Almost anything can swing this election. We haven't had a real recession since 2009 and we are about due one. Perhaps another outrageous mass murder.

My bet - Trump starts to lose it and, enraged at his downward numbers beats the shit out of Melania one night.
I don't wish this on her at all, but if I had to guess what path Trumps rage at losing would take, it would be as a domestic abuser first.

 

[braces_for_impact]

Trump isn't strong at all. If you want to look at successful business men, look at someone like Buffet. Trump has never been the long term guy. He wants instant gratification, that isn't how you handle diplomacy or a nation with 325 million people.

He will have an army of advisors, plus Congress and the Senate to keep him in check. I think he'd be better than the alternative.

I really dislike this argument. Trump gets to pick his advisors, just like he has with his campaign. Look at his campaign and what he's said about various cabinet positions, etc. to get an idea of who he would pick. As for congress, even more solid grid lock is your best case scenario? The courts, while they may block him for awhile, can't forever. He may be able to place several judges on that court, is there any reason to think they wouldn't be people that would willingly roll over for Trump?

How much trouble can he get to with Executive action? Negotiation with other countries? Meetings with other world leaders? A budget? How would our military be effected when he starts tossing out wild ass orders that are against the Geneva conventions?

Jesus H. Christ on a a pogo stick. This man is so obviously winging it, and badly. He doesn't understand our political process. How a bill becomes a law. He doesn't understand the separation of powers. He doesn't get freedom of speech or the press. He doesn't even have a solid grasp on reality, on our world, and what's going on in it. Does he know what NATO really is? No. The difference between Shia and Sunni? No. Seriously. This man is a walking disaster. Every single time I hear someone make this stupid argument, they also simultaneously agree that Obama has all but destroyed the country, our military and our world standing - without congress. Yet somehow they'll keep Trump in check. You can't have it both ways.

Even IF everything the Republicans said about Hillary was true. She would STILL make a better president. She has a grasp on reality. She knows how the world works. She understands the world stage. She's rational. Predictable. She knows how politics works. She could be so corrupt that Putin would ask her for advice, and I would still vote for her over Trump's dumb ass.

THINK for fuck's sake!

- - - Updated - - -

Another one or two islamic terrorist attacks in the US, would make the race to the White house very interesting would it not?

Only if you're volunteering to be killed in one of those attacks. Otherwise, no, terrorist attacks don't make anything interesting.

Possibly not. people don't even trust Trump with that. Latest news is showing that his campaign is disappointed he didn't get a bump in the polls from the massacre.

 

[Rhea]

Also, I hate that graph. I despise graphs that make fast and loose with the y-axis to exaggerate a point. Any non-zero intercept needs a damn good reason and a big label. IMHO.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Also, I hate that graph. I despise graphs that make fast and loose with the y-axis to exaggerate a point. Any non-zero intercept needs a damn good reason and a big label. IMHO.

https://archive.org/details/HowToLieWithStatistics


Darrell Huff How to Lie with Statistics Penguin Books 1973
Acrobat 7 Pdf 4.79 Mb.
Scanned by artmisa using Canon DR2580C + flatbed option

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Snort! I didn't know this was on line. I think all Americans by the time they are 16 should have read this in school.

 

[RavenSky]

I was wondering when this was going to happen - a 19-year old "UK man" tried to grab a cop's gun and fully admits he wanted to kill Trump.

 

[angelo]

Seems that the GOP will spend another one -two terms out of the White House unless they find another candidate. America will go further down the gurgled of irrelevant.

 

[Sarpedon]

The media doesn't know what to do with a white, foreign born man from a friendly country trying to assassinate a racist presidential candidate. So its not getting much coverage.

- - - Updated - - -

America will go further down the gurgled of irrelevant.

Bold speech from an Australian.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Meanwhile, Quinnipiac released polls showing Clinton has thin leads in PA and OH, but an out of margin of error lead in Florida. Seems to imply a decent blue collar level of support for Trump, but bad news for Trump, he can't lose Florida and win the election, unless he takes MI and PA.

Seems that the GOP will spend another one -two terms out of the White House unless they find another candidate. America will go further down the gurgled of irrelevant.

Uh huh.

 

[braces_for_impact]

I was wondering when this was going to happen - a 19-year old "UK man" tried to grab a cop's gun and fully admits he wanted to kill Trump.

I was too, honestly. I'd assumed it would come form a minority group of some sort though. There's a long way to go to make things fair between the races, and there are a LOT of people that are very nervous, not wanting to undo decades of social progress and make things the way they used to be. This is understandable, but violent reactions MUST not be allowed as this is handing Trump a gift.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

And here is the link.

US election 2016: Man 'tried to shoot Donald Trump' at Las Vegas rally

A 20-year-old British man who tried to grab a policeman’s gun at a Donald Trump rally in Nevada has told police he had driven there from California to kill the presumptive Republican nominee, court documents allege.

Michael Sandford was arrested on Saturday at the Treasure Island Casino in Las Vegas, where the property mogul was holding a campaign event, the Associated Press reported.

He has now appeared in court in Nevada, where he was charged with an act of violence on restricted grounds and remanded in custody without bail.

According to documents presented to the court, Mr Sandford approached a police officer claiming that he wanted an autograph from Mr Trump, before grabbing the handle of the officer’s gun and trying to remove it from the holster.

Mr Sandford reportedly told officers that he intended to kill Mr Trump. He is said to have told law enforcement officials that he had been planning the assassination for up to a year and did not expect to survive the attempt. Mr Sandford had a UK driver’s licence and had practised shooting a pistol at a Vegas gun range the day before the incident.

I guess we don't need the scare quotes around "UK man".

 

[fast]

Also, I hate that graph. I despise graphs that make fast and loose with the y-axis to exaggerate a point. Any non-zero intercept needs a damn good reason and a big label. IMHO.

https://archive.org/details/HowToLieWithStatistics



Darrell Huff How to Lie with Statistics Penguin Books 1973
Acrobat 7 Pdf 4.79 Mb.
Scanned by artmisa using Canon DR2580C + flatbed option

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Snort! I didn't know this was on line. I think all Americans by the time they are 16 should have read this in school.

Reading it now. An easy, soothing read too!

Thanks

 

[angelo]

Meanwhile, Quinnipiac released polls showing Clinton has thin leads in PA and OH, but an out of margin of error lead in Florida. Seems to imply a decent blue collar level of support for Trump, but bad news for Trump, he can't lose Florida and win the election, unless he takes MI and PA.

Seems that the GOP will spend another one -two terms out of the White House unless they find another candidate. America will go further down the gurgled of irrelevant.

Uh huh.

To anyone who's read The Rise And Fall Of The Roman Empire, one can see the same tell tale signs in the American Empire's downfall.

 

[lpetrich]

To anyone who's read The Rise And Fall Of The Roman Empire, one can see the same tell tale signs in the American Empire's downfall.

That's Edward Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, I presume. What telltale signs do you have in mind?

 

[Sarpedon]

Don't you remember last year, when the Secret Service sold the Presidency to the highest bidder?

Unlike some people, I have read it.

 

[jonatha]

Don't you remember last year, when the Secret Service sold the Presidency to the highest bidder?

Unlike some people, I have read it.

Not to mention eliminating the Pentagon and outsourcing the job to the People's Liberation Army...

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Don't you remember last year, when the Secret Service sold the Presidency to the highest bidder?

Unlike some people, I have read it.

Lead in the water was a problem for the Romans.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Meanwhile in the polls, incumbency is bizarre. Rubio who lost his state in a primary is leading the Democrat challengers by 8 pts. What is peculiar is that this is the same polling outfit that shows Clinton up by 8 pts.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Meanwhile in the polls, incumbency is bizarre. Rubio who lost his state in a primary is leading the Democrat challengers by 8 pts. What is peculiar is that this is the same polling outfit that shows Clinton up by 8 pts.

People like Rubio. I don't know why.

 

[Trausti]

Meanwhile in the polls, incumbency is bizarre. Rubio who lost his state in a primary is leading the Democrat challengers by 8 pts. What is peculiar is that this is the same polling outfit that shows Clinton up by 8 pts.

Thankfully many people don't vote on party lines.