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US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

If he runs for president, either the media will pay attention to him or not. If it does, everyone will learn about his conspiracy theory shit. If it doesn't, he won't matter.
 
Interesting stuff. MSNBC is reporting that exit polls are showing far more Democrats now identify as liberal than ever before. In Texas, 61% of Democrats are self identifying as liberal. Looks like a shift is happening in politics. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out in the near future.
 
Well, I went for Sanders after all, my precinct returned 78-36 for Sanders, and I'm a delegate now for some reason.
 
Adviser: Carson staying in even if he gets shut out on Super Tuesday | TheHill Famous last words?

So far, in most of the Super Tuesday states, Donald Trump has been getting as many votes as Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio combined. The only exception is Texas, where Ted Cruz is winning, likely from the "favorite son" factor.

Likewise, in most of these states, Hillary Clinton is beating Bernie Sanders. The biggest exception is Vermont, where Bernie Sanders is clearly a favorite son. Or should I say favorite child to include cases of favorite daughters?
 
Sanders wins Oklahoma, Vermont. Leading in Minnesota and Colorado early. Did well in Massachusetts. Pretty much the result he needed to be able to continue without looking foolish. It would be a decent cross-section of states.

Kasich is in big trouble and Carson, well, no one knows what he is thinking, not even god. Rubio won a state. He finally won. The question is, can he continue? Looks like Trump has a VP in Christie already. Talk about a boisterous ticket, and he is already transitioning (as best he can?) to a General Election tone. He better come up with a platform soon.
 
Sanders is toast. He got just 61 votes, to Clinton's 162; and has only 2 of the six delegates pledged, to Clinton's 4, in the vital American Samoa caucus. Turnout was down too, from the record 285 voters in 2008 to just 223.

It's all over, Bernie supporters. You can go home now.
 
Yeah, Rubio won minnesota, the most liberal of states, the only state not to go for Reagan. Not much of a bragging right. He got 2nd place in Virginia, and third or worse everywhere else. This is an absolute disaster for him. And he might not make the 20% delegate threshold in several states, we won't know until tomorrow, probably. So much for Rubio.
 
Jason Harvestdancer said:
Although there is no really good candidate, Bernie is the best of the bunch. And Hillary is the worst. And all the Republicans fit in between them in quality.

It is a shame to see Bernie do so poorly.
Click to expand...

How is Ted Cruz better than Hillary when Bernie Sanders is the best? It makes no sense.

Ted Cruz is vowing to get rid of the Iran deal, shut down Planned Parenthood, put as much of his religion as possible into the government, and every other stereotypical wacky thing a Republican wants to do. He'd put Pat Robertson on the Supreme Court if he could.

So how is Hillary worse than that?
 
Jason Harvestdancer said:
Although there is no really good candidate, Bernie is the best of the bunch. And Hillary is the worst. And all the Republicans fit in between them in quality.

It is a shame to see Bernie do so poorly.
Click to expand...
most of the states voting so far have been in deep south republican strongholds so i'm not shocked hillary has done well. going forward looks better for sanders but it will still be tough for him.
 
ksen said:
Jason Harvestdancer said:
Although there is no really good candidate, Bernie is the best of the bunch. And Hillary is the worst. And all the Republicans fit in between them in quality.

It is a shame to see Bernie do so poorly.
Click to expand...
most of the states voting so far have been in deep south republican strongholds so i'm not shocked hillary has done well. going forward looks better for sanders but it will still be tough for him.
Click to expand...

Given the pledged superdelegates, what percent of remaining regular delegates would he need to win now? 70%, 80%? I could see him winning a little bit in the mid-west, but I don't know about other areas.
 
Don2 (Don1 Revised) said:
ksen said:
most of the states voting so far have been in deep south republican strongholds so i'm not shocked hillary has done well. going forward looks better for sanders but it will still be tough for him.
Click to expand...

Given the pledged superdelegates, what percent of remaining regular delegates would he need to win now? 70%, 80%? I could see him winning a little bit in the mid-west, but I don't know about other areas.
Click to expand...

Ya, that's the issue. Most of the Democratic primaries give the delegates proportionally, so he'd need huge victories in order to overcome the lead she already has. I think the numbers he had to hit were about 60% of the delegates before Super Tuesday and Clinton only increased her lead on him then. He's making enough of an impact to swing the Democratic Party to the left and force Clinton to go that way as well, but not enough of an impact to become the candidate.
 
bilby said:
Sanders is toast. He got just 61 votes, to Clinton's 162; and has only 2 of the six delegates pledged, to Clinton's 4, in the vital American Samoa caucus. Turnout was down too, from the record 285 voters in 2008 to just 223.

It's all over, Bernie supporters. You can go home now.
Click to expand...

Going against the establishment is always tough. Nevertheless, this is far from over. Sanders is 3.73% of elected delegates behind, with only 21.45% of elected delegates assigned. While lots of people are fond of automatically counting super delegates in Hillary's favor, (annoyingly in the main stream media for sure) this is not a given. If Bernie pulls out the majority of the delegates the democrats can try and snag the election with super delegates, and receive a grass roots backlash like they've never seen before.
 
Colonel Sanders said:
Jason Harvestdancer said:
Although there is no really good candidate, Bernie is the best of the bunch. And Hillary is the worst. And all the Republicans fit in between them in quality.

It is a shame to see Bernie do so poorly.
Click to expand...

How is Ted Cruz better than Hillary when Bernie Sanders is the best? It makes no sense.

Ted Cruz is vowing to get rid of the Iran deal, shut down Planned Parenthood, put as much of his religion as possible into the government, and every other stereotypical wacky thing a Republican wants to do. He'd put Pat Robertson on the Supreme Court if he could.

So how is Hillary worse than that?
Click to expand...
Maybe he meant the worst of the Dums ;)

I'd only disagree in that Cruz would pick a much younger ideolog, as Pat is an old school fart. Rubio only looks better, as he occasionally tries to not act like a neanderthal, thereby seeming less bad than Cruz. There is some guy running for Entertainer in Chief. And then there is ssssslllloooooowwwww Ben Quixote still looking for his windmill...
 
Tom Sawyer said:
He's making enough of an impact to swing the Democratic Party to the left and force Clinton to go that way as well, but not enough of an impact to become the candidate.
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Exactly this - and frankly, if that is the best outcome we get, that's still good enough. I love that Bernie has pulled her more to the left.

My concern is will she shift right again after she is in office. She tends to follow the polls rather than her principles, which is my very biggest complaint about her, but I am hoping that the enthusiastic support for Bernie so fast on the heels of the huge support for President Obama's most liberal policies have impressed upon her that she needs to stay more liberal.
 
Don2 (Don1 Revised) said:
ksen said:
most of the states voting so far have been in deep south republican strongholds so i'm not shocked hillary has done well. going forward looks better for sanders but it will still be tough for him.
Click to expand...

Given the pledged superdelegates, what percent of remaining regular delegates would he need to win now? 70%, 80%? I could see him winning a little bit in the mid-west, but I don't know about other areas.
Click to expand...

Superdelegates are meaningless right now. Their votes aren't set in stone. If Sanders ends up upsetting Hillary through the rest of the primary they'll switch over. If they don't they can say goodbye to winning the presidency.
 
ksen said:
Don2 (Don1 Revised) said:
Given the pledged superdelegates, what percent of remaining regular delegates would he need to win now? 70%, 80%? I could see him winning a little bit in the mid-west, but I don't know about other areas.
Click to expand...

Superdelegates are meaningless right now. Their votes aren't set in stone. If Sanders ends up upsetting Hillary through the rest of the primary they'll switch over. If they don't they can say goodbye to winning the presidency.
Click to expand...

Ya, and if my aunt had a penis she'd be my uncle. He's not going to be upsetting her through the rest of the primaries. She's proven that she has the support of the voters and can win and there's not a particular anti-Clinton sentiment in the Democratic party to lead enough of a rally against her to change that. Additionally, there's enough of a worry about the potential for a Trump presidency to have people take the "safer" choice (which she is seen as) even if that's their second choice as opposed to taking a risk with their first choice.

There are just no metrics in Sanders' favour right now. He needs to keep going strong in order to keep Clinton veering to the left and to keep her in the news because there's a potential race in the primary and not have all the attention focus on whatever the hell stupid thing Trump said or did on that day and have her fade into the background, but he doesn't have a legitimate path to the nomination.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
ksen said:
Superdelegates are meaningless right now. Their votes aren't set in stone. If Sanders ends up upsetting Hillary through the rest of the primary they'll switch over. If they don't they can say goodbye to winning the presidency.
Click to expand...

Ya, and if my aunt had a penis she'd be my uncle. He's not going to be upsetting her through the rest of the primaries. She's proven that she has the support of the voters and can win and there's not a particular anti-Clinton sentiment in the Democratic party to lead enough of a rally against her to change that. Additionally, there's enough of a worry about the potential for a Trump presidency to have people take the "safer" choice (which she is seen as) even if that's their second choice as opposed to taking a risk with their first choice.

There are just no metrics in Sanders' favour right now. He needs to keep going strong in order to keep Clinton veering to the left and to keep her in the news because there's a potential race in the primary and not have all the attention focus on whatever the hell stupid thing Trump said or did on that day and have her fade into the background, but he doesn't have a legitimate path to the nomination.
Click to expand...
Yup, yup, yup, and yup. Sanders did well enough to continue and make his case for a platform at the Convention. Clinton did well enough to know she will win an outright number of pledge delegates and won't need a single super delegate to win the nomination. Sanders looks towards Michigan, the Dakotas, Montana, California, Oregon, and Washington. He needs a number of more victories to give his proposals a strong backing for consideration. Winning California (probably no chance) would be substantial.

Sanders is in a different race. One of legitimacy, and he's doing well in it.

Meanwhile the Republican race is in all sorts of crazy turmoil. The two biggest establishments left for them did the worst (Richard Gere look alike contest winner Surgeon excepted of course). The wackiest guy did the best. The man no one likes won a home state which happened to be one of the biggest states in the Union. The crucial thing is this, Trump does not hold a majority of the delegates. He has a good size lead, but he doesn't have a majority of those awarded, yet. Kasich and Carson's will split, so that doesn't help much. As long as this is a three man race, that causes trouble for Trump.
 
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