Veep Bets

[Swammerdami]

Chances implied by the Betfair prediction market are
* Kamala Harris - 56%
* Susan Rice - 20%
* Duckworth, Bass and Warren each have about a 5% chance.

 

[Politesse]

Poor Joe! Modern tech brooks no secrets. Some more evidence that a Harris announcement is imminent:

Biden's notes: ‘Do not hold grudges’ against Kamala Harris

As he took questions from reporters on Tuesday, Biden held notes that were captured by an Associated Press photographer. Harris’ name was scrawled across the top, followed by five talking points.

“Do not hold grudges.” “Campaigned with me & Jill.” “Talented.” “Great help to campaign.” “Great respect for her.”

 

[blastula]

Eh, it could just as well be a response for anyone who asked about that Politico story.

 

[TV and credit cards]

This CNN article puts in view the cracks in the GOP/Deplorable Party; as far as I can throw a CNN article.

And this one says Trump advertising has ground to a halt and has little scheduled for August.

So, short of Joe Biden getting a nose piercing, painting him as the representative of the radical left isn't going to work. I suspect they are waiting to see who his VP pick is before proceeding. Who would the Trump campaign least like to see in this position and is that the most weighted concern of the Biden campaign? Given that Trump and the GOP are on defense, I think a good offensive move would be for Biden to delay his VP pick a bit longer. Take August away from Trump. And while I think Rice would be the best person to transition into the Oval Office, I still think Duckworth is the best bet for beating Trump and that's what this election is all about. It's not Biden versus Trump, it's democracy versus authoritarianism. Duckworth takes away Trump's false patriotism which will pull those light red states toward Biden leaving the Trump campaign with what exactly for a strategy going forward? What cards would Trump have left to play?

 

[ideologyhunter]

with what exactly for a strategy going forward? What cards would Trump have left to play?

.

Exactly the question I have. The old Trump line, "You have no choice but to vote for me because otherwise the economy will crater" is obviously defunct. The Trump ads I've seen for a few weeks now are all about 'you won't have police anymore', and it seems to have gained him nothing. There's the racist trope he's now pushing about the suburbs being overrun by certain vague, undesirable groups, but he's got the cracker vote already. Would you want to be on Trump's team,
trying to sell this guy to independents? They must be hoping that October will bring them a breakout theme, like an imminent corona vaccine. But a large part of his problem is that people have already judged him based on the health crisis, and he's hopeless. His old line about "Only I can fix it" would be amusing at this point.
He will probably keep on with crime in the streets, rant that Biden is a socialist, claim that only he can deal firmly with China. None of these will break him out of the box he's in -- and the % who are polling as 'very disapproving' is a formidable number to turn around. Those of us who don't like him have a visceral dislike of him. He makes me embarrassed for the country. It's like going to high school and everyone knows your dad was caught with a computer full of child porn. Canada, UK...I know, my dad is a douche. But Mom divorced him, and it's final this November.

 

[southernhybrid]

Poor Joe! Modern tech brooks no secrets. Some more evidence that a Harris announcement is imminent:

Biden's notes: ‘Do not hold grudges’ against Kamala Harris

As he took questions from reporters on Tuesday, Biden held notes that were captured by an Associated Press photographer. Harris’ name was scrawled across the top, followed by five talking points.

“Do not hold grudges.” “Campaigned with me & Jill.” “Talented.” “Great help to campaign.” “Great respect for her.”

I read this morning that they both discussed not holding grudges toward each other. The biggest concern about Harris right now, according to numerous articles the I've read, is her failure during her presidential run. At this point, I don't care who he chooses. I just want Trump out. Any breathing adult would be a big improvement. That list that Biden had was all over every fucking news report yesterday. I'm not sure Biden has made the final decision. From what I've read, he's being pulled in many different directions by his advisors and some very experienced Democratic politicians. One of the things that is being considered is choosing a person that will make it hard for Trump to criticize. I think they worry about this too much. At this point, I think most voters are either going to support Trump or can't stand Trump, so they will vote for Biden regardless of who he chooses as his running mate.

The NYTImes had a long article about Duckworth this morning. She is an amazing person who has an excellent relationship with Biden. My only concern is that she's a bit more to the right on many issues than Biden is. It's not a big issue for me because all I want is a person who is intelligent and has some experience.

I find it almost humorous how Trump is trying to paint Biden as a radical leftist. Most people know Biden. They know that he's very experienced and willing to compromise. I have no doubt that if the Congress passes very progressive bills with reasonable ways to pay for and institute them, Biden will sign them. I have no problem with that, but I know that our country tends to be center right, so it's very doubtful that the Congress is going to pass bills that are perceived as too far left by a high percentage of people. I do hope that some progress will be made, but the first priority should be working to undue some of the damage done by the TRump administration and the Republicans in Congress. It's going to be a long, hard road, but it always takes a Democratic president to undo some of the horrible things that the Republicans do. Biden is going to inherit the biggest mess in my lifetime, so I'm trying to be realistic about what can be accomplished in the next few years.

And, of course, if we don't take back the Senate, nothing progressive will be accomplished.

 

[lpetrich]

Biden allies move to stop Kamala Harris from becoming vice president

• A group of Biden allies, including a few of his top donors, initiated a campaign against Harris close to a month ago, just weeks before a decision is expected.
• The concerns focus on her attacks on Biden during a primary debate last year, bringing into question her loyalty to the former vice president.
• Some also argue that she’s too ambitious and that she will be solely focused on eventually becoming president.

That seems like such petty backbiting.

 

[Derec]

I read this morning that they both discussed not holding grudges toward each other. The biggest concern about Harris right now, according to numerous articles the I've read, is her failure during her presidential run.

Well, in her defense, she did much better than Biden in 2008. Or in 1988 for that matter.

At this point, I don't care who he chooses. I just want Trump out. Any breathing adult would be a big improvement.

Given that Biden is 78 years old, the "one heartbeat away" is more likely to be fulfilled than usually. So I disagree - Biden's choice for veep might be the most consequential in recent history.

The NYTImes had a long article about Duckworth this morning. She is an amazing person who has an excellent relationship with Biden. My only concern is that she's a bit more to the right on many issues than Biden is. It's not a big issue for me because all I want is a person who is intelligent and has some experience.

On what issues do you think she is "to the right" of Biden?

I find it almost humorous how Trump is trying to paint Biden as a radical leftist. Most people know Biden. They know that he's very experienced and willing to compromise.

The problem is that he is being pulled to the Left by party activists. The taskforces where half of all people are Sandernistas is one example.

 

[Keith&Co.]

The concerns focus on her attacks on Biden during a primary debate last year, bringing into question her loyalty to the former vice president.

Really?

No one remembers everyone's attacks on Trump?
No one remembers Bush coining the phrase voodoo economics about Reagan's plan?

 

[skepticalbip]

I read this morning that they both discussed not holding grudges toward each other. The biggest concern about Harris right now, according to numerous articles the I've read, is her failure during her presidential run.

I've heard the same concern but more specifically the reason for poor performance during the primary race. Kamala was a vicious DA in San Francisco getting convictions for a hell of a lot of young black men for drug possession which other DAs would see as minor drug charges. Many see this as the reason she didn't do well during the primary. The concern would be how her conviction record would fly with voters in the general election.

 

[fromderinside]

I read this morning that they both discussed not holding grudges toward each other. The biggest concern about Harris right now, according to numerous articles the I've read, is her failure during her presidential run.

I've heard the same concern but more specifically the reason for poor performance during the primary race. Kamala was a vicious DA in San Francisco getting convictions for a hell of a lot of young black men for drug possession which other DAs would see as minor drug charges. Many see this as the reason she didn't do well during the primary. The concern would be how her conviction record would fly with voters in the general election.

Outsider comment. I'm pretty sure there is no problem with  Kamela Harris on law record when it comes to competition with Trump. She's strong on Law, positive for the center, she's strong on redefining the role of police in law enforcement, positive for the center left. She's young, experienced in both legislative and executive roles. She's a very sharp cookie with a rather muscular stance for a woman. And she knows how to win elections in the most populous and second most liberal state in the US.

 

[Derec]

The concerns focus on her attacks on Biden during a primary debate last year, bringing into question her loyalty to the former vice president.

Really?

No one remembers everyone's attacks on Trump?
No one remembers Bush coining the phrase voodoo economics about Reagan's plan?

Most of the people that remember the voodoo economics attack know it from here.

Same with Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act.


But Kamala's attacks on Biden were different than mere policy differences. She basically accused him of being a racist because he didn't support forced busing. That can't and should not be easily forgiven!

 

[Derec]

She's a very sharp cookie with a rather muscular stance for a woman. And she knows how to win elections in the most populous and second most liberal state in the US.

But most states are not nearly as "liberal" as California. In the general election, she needs to play in the Midwest, Florida, and other battleground states. I am not saying she will not be able to, but her winning the AG and Senate seats in the People's Republic of California is not exactly indicative of national chances.

 

[Derec]

I've heard the same concern but more specifically the reason for poor performance during the primary race. Kamala was a vicious DA in San Francisco getting convictions for a hell of a lot of young black men for drug possession which other DAs would see as minor drug charges. Many see this as the reason she didn't do well during the primary. The concern would be how her conviction record would fly with voters in the general election.

That may have heart her with some of the left-wing base, but I do not think that's what did her campaign in. I think it was mostly two factors. First, a disorganized campaign. Second, she is naturally a moderate, but she tried to play in the left-wing lane, which was not only not a good fit for her, but also was crowded by heavyweights Bernie and Warren.
She ran out of money even though she had great fundraising early on. If she had had money, I think she could have played in the crowded field and would have collected some good delegates in early states.

 

[Treedbear]

...
So, short of Joe Biden getting a nose piercing, painting him as the representative of the radical left isn't going to work. I suspect they are waiting to see who his VP pick is before proceeding. Who would the Trump campaign least like to see in this position and is that the most weighted concern of the Biden campaign? Given that Trump and the GOP are on defense, I think a good offensive move would be for Biden to delay his VP pick a bit longer. Take August away from Trump. And while I think Rice would be the best person to transition into the Oval Office, I still think Duckworth is the best bet for beating Trump and that's what this election is all about. It's not Biden versus Trump, it's democracy versus authoritarianism. Duckworth takes away Trump's false patriotism which will pull those light red states toward Biden leaving the Trump campaign with what exactly for a strategy going forward? What cards would Trump have left to play?

The wonderful outcome of all this analysis concerning Biden's choice for VP is that it's generated a fantastic amount of enthusiasm for the possibility of having a woman become President. I have the feeling the idea is being taken seriously for the first time. When Biden announced it I thought it was a stroke of genius as a campaign strategy. But with all the public exposure the candidates have been given and the dignity they've each brought to the discussion I think it will amount to a paradigm shift in America's attitude.

 

[Emily Lake]

‘She had no remorse’: Why Kamala Harris isn't a lock for VP - POLITICO

Not so fast on the Harris inevitability. This article talks about some dem insiders who aren't so keen on her, and touting Karen Bass instead. I would prefer Bass myself. At 66, she is pushing it agewise, but she is likable enough, qualified enough and doesn't have any of the negative baggage Harris carries. The best part is she is divorced and single.

Why is that the best part?

 

[Derec]

Not so fast on the Harris inevitability. This article talks about some dem insiders who aren't so keen on her, and touting Karen Bass instead. I would prefer Bass myself. At 66, she is pushing it agewise, but she is likable enough, qualified enough and doesn't have any of the negative baggage Harris carries. The best part is she is divorced and single.

Yes, she is definitely too old to be Biden's running mate. Had somebody younger, say Mayor Pete, won the nod, somebody older and more experienced would have been a perfect complement, like Obama did with Biden in the first place. But with Biden being 78, he doesn't need a running mate who is also drawing Social Security.

But age is the least of the many problems with Bass as Veep.

She praised Castro, saying that his passing was a great loss for the people of Cuba:
Karen Bass renounces her praise for Fidel Castro

On “Fox News Sunday,“ the California Democrat faced questions about several visits to Cuba in the 1970s and a statement she released after Castro's 2016 death saying, "the passing of the Comandante en Jefe is a great loss to the people of Cuba.”

Note, she did some volunteer work in Communist Cuba as part of the pro-Castro  Venceremos Brigade in the 70s.

She also praised a major figure in the US Communist Party, one Oneil Connor.
Karen Bass eulogized Communist Party USA leader

When Rep. Karen Bass’ “friend and mentor” died three years ago, she eulogized the community organizer’s passing in remarks she inserted into the Congressional Record.
The California congresswoman described Oneil Marion Cannon as a one-man force in progressive politics who became the “union printer to the left” in Los Angeles, where he worked for “interracial and intercultural understanding,” opened a community hub and even once “belonged to the Independent Progressive Party.”
Left out of the 406-word eulogy: Cannon was a top member of the Communist Party USA for decades.

She has also been linked to racist and antisemitic "Nation of Islam"
EXCLUSIVE: Karen Bass Denies Links To Nation Of Islam, Despite Photos And Event Appearances, But Doesn’t Disavow Radical Group

Rep. Karen Bass, a top contender to become presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s running mate, appeared at Nation of Islam-linked events, posed for a picture with a top Nation of Islam official, and attended a forum in 2013 hosted by the organization’s official mouthpiece.[..]But Bass, a California Democrat, appeared alongside Tony Muhammad, the director of the Nation of Islam’s Western division, at events in 2014 and 2015. Bass is seen posing with Muhammad in a photo posted online by Mablean Ephriam, the former host of Fox television program “Justice With Judge Mable.”
[...]
Bass attended a summit hosting first ladies from Africa in April 2013 hosted by the Final Call, the “official communications organ of the Nation of Islam,” which posted a photo of the California Democrat at the event.
Muhammad praised Bass and another California Democrat, Rep. Maxine Waters, during a 2018 interview.
“I have to say, I thank God for Maxine Waters and Congresswoman Karen Bass,” Muhammad told the Los Angeles Sentinel in April 2018, when some Democratic lawmakers were distancing themselves from Farrakhan.
“I think our Black politicians should stand down. Minister Farrakhan will take a call from a Maxine Waters or Karen Bass. He will stop what he’s doing … come and correct him, he’s told them. But don’t let anyone tell you I’ve done something wrong without checking,” Muhammad said.

I do not know how Biden people put someone like her on the short list. They must suck at vetting worse than John McCain people!

By the way, it's not just Karen Bass and Maxine Waters that have a NoI problem.

Illinois Rep. Danny Davis praised Farrakhan as an “outstanding human being.” In a March 2018 interview with the Daily Caller News Foundation, Davis confirmed that he had a personal relationship with Farrakhan and said he was unbothered by Farrakhan’s “position” on “the Jewish question.”
Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib in 2006 wrote an op-ed for the Final Call, which described her as a “guest columnist.”

It should be as unacceptable for Democrats to pall with black supremacists as it is unacceptable for Democrats to pall around with white supremacists. There should be no double standard here!

 

[Derec]

Why is that the best part?

I am wondering too. Why is that supposed to be a big plus?

On the other hand, Kamala Harris and Susan Rice are not only married, each to a man, but they are both openly miscegenating! Not very woke of them!

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

If you want her being single to be a big plus, pick someone better looking.

 

[Swammerdami]

I should avoid clicking Reply in political threads, but I do hope to use these threads to test my skill at understanding human discourse. Consider the following exchange:

"Unite the country"? Is that some kind of joke? We're in a state of increasingly open civil war, I think it's a bit late for thinking a suitably inoffensive VP pick is going to "unite the country".

Fortunately that sentiment is an outlier from the far left wing. I wouldn't even say it's part of the Democratic left wing. Arguing with you about it is like trying to convince TSwizzle that it's foolish not to wear a mask in order to limit the pandemic.

I agree with you 100%. US political discourse has devolved to:

Left: These people can't be reasoned with.
Right: The left are a bunch of traitorous cunts! Execute them all! Any survivors should be placed into work camps!

So yeah, completely equivalent.

I think some of my mother's children would worry that Politesse's assessment might be correct and that Treedbear is over-optimistic. But it is Patooka's rejoinder which leads me to seek feedback on my social communication skill.

I feel that parts of Patooka's comment more than bordered on sarcasm. In particular I do not know how to parse his thinking without assuming "I agree with you 100%" is itself sarcastic! Help please.