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Will Biden drop out? Who replaces him?

Publicly word is spreading Obama is now concerned. This appears to be a full blown intended escalation, started a bit low, then up the ladder, instead of making Obama look like a "kingmaker".
 
And as I continue to swing and miss on this election...


article (their emphasis said:
The data here opens a new front in the fight to replace Biden, strongly arguing that the best chance to defeat Trump is with a new Democratic nominee independent of the incumbent administration.

In other words: not Kamala Harris.

The strongest potential candidates are (in alphabetical order) Arizona Sen. MARK KELLY, Maryland Gov. WES MOORE, Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO and Michigan Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER. All four outpaced Biden “by roughly 5 points across battleground states.”
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Kelly is running for re-election. I can't imagine the Dems would risk that seat. He'd be a perfect VP, but with his wife and what she went through, I'm not certain if he'd want to go through with that for himself and her. Whitmer keeps getting mentioned. I have a hard time thinking they'd put two governors on the ticket.
 
Finally, it looks like the messages are getting through to Biden. Reports are that he is now more open to listening to pleas for him to step aside. He was just diagnosed with Covid, and it is likely that he will just be facing more health issues if he continues at the pace that would be expected of a candidate for President.

Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate​

 
It won't be anyone but Harris. It waa pulling enough teeth to drag them, way too late to be good for the party, that he might need to be replaced. They aren't going to go as far as snubbing his VP.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Copernicus said:
Finally, it looks like the messages are getting through to Biden. Reports are that he is now more open to listening to pleas for him to step aside. He was just diagnosed with Covid, and it is likely that he will just be facing more health issues if he continues at the pace that would be expected of a candidate for President.

Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate​

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hurtinbuckaroo hit on the head, I think.
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I think that Covid is a more likely trigger for giving him second thoughts than some kind of plan to draw the spotlight off of Trump.
 
There is a pre-packaged Democrat Prince in shining armor, waiting in the wings for his entrance, unsullied by the Republican defamation machine. When called by Central Casting, he will emerge fully formed on the world stage, ready to articulate all Trump’s weakness, corruption and stupidity with irresistible and devastating power, while concisely presenting a clear vision of a bright, beautiful, prosperous, attainable American future.

And will lose the electoral college by over 150 points.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
While possible, the timeline of those stepping up with concerns seems too deliberate.
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But you don't think that Biden arranged to catch Covid-19 at this point in time, do you? What is likely to happen now--at least, this is my hope--is that Biden will need to talk to his most important backers before announcing the public decision to step down. However, there is no guarantee that those asking him to step down will get their wish, especially if Biden's primary advocates try to get him to stay in.
 
Elixir said:
There is a pre-packaged Democrat Prince in shining armor, waiting in the wings for his entrance, unsullied by the Republican defamation machine. When called by Central Casting, he will emerge fully formed on the world stage, ready to articulate all Trump’s weakness, corruption and stupidity with irresistible and devastating power, while concisely presenting a clear vision of a bright, beautiful, prosperous, attainable American future.

And will lose the electoral college by over 150 points.
Click to expand...

If so, then Biden would likely lose the electoral college by even more. If he does step down, the electoral map will likely remain the same for a while. The worst thing that Democrats could do would be to replace Biden with some white guy. If they feel they need a white guy, then Harris can pick such a running mate. It could even be Biden himself, although I think that would be a bad idea. I don't think that Biden is fit to campaign at this point.
 
Copernicus said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
While possible, the timeline of those stepping up with concerns seems too deliberate.
Click to expand...

But you don't think that Biden arranged to catch Covid-19 at this point in time, do you? What is likely to happen now--at least, this is my hope--is that Biden will need to talk to his most important backers before announcing the public decision to step down. However, there is no guarantee that those asking him to step down will get their wish, especially if Biden's primary advocates try to get him to stay in.
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Indeed, that would be doubtful that he got Covid-19 at just the right time. It is possible that Covid-19 is pushing him to the limit. He might say something to the extent that it is limiting his capacity, and he must be the President first and if that means he can't be the candidate, he'll step aside.

That or Biden announces he is no longer running, though he looks suspiciously like Kevin Kline.
 
It looks almost certain now that Biden will drop out. Likely VP candidates could come from those polling even stronger than Harris:

Biden could drop out of presidential race as early as this weekend, report suggests​


While Harris would appear to be the natural choice to replace Biden, a poll conducted by BlueLabs and first reported on by Politico earlier this week found that four other Democrats would outperform Biden by roughly five points overall across battleground states. While Harris also outperformed Biden in the poll, the margin was narrower.

According to the poll, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Maryland Governor Wes Moore, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer were all found to outperform both Biden and Harris.
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My preference among the four would definitely be Whitmer, but my guess is that the Democratic leadership will prefer one of the males over another woman on the ticket. That kind of calculation stinks, but I think they fear shaving off a few more points in poll numbers.
 
What if Biden agrees to drop out saying it is more important Trump loses than he wins and becomes dictator.

To show the seriousness of the situation Harris runs on the presidential ticket either as the presidential candidate or vice presidential candidate and the Democrats nominate the other person, an anti Trump Republican, as a unity party candidate like Lincoln did in 1864.

Maybe Mitt Romney or Dick Cheney. Mitt is rich like Trump and Dick was a war vp.

Also, you might drive a wedge in the religious vote. Most of these evangelicals who want a religious state think you are saved when you believe, and believing you are saved when baptized is rank false doctrine. You might could spread the word these evangelicals borrow ideas from people who think these churches who teach such should be shut down. It is in their literature. People in the Catholic Church, Church of Christ, ect who believe baptism is the point you reach salvation should given food for thought about this. And your Mormons ect are just regarded as cults.
 
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I think we might as well accept that Trump will get a second term. The only positive is that a lot of Democrats running for the Senate in Trump states are ahead of their Republican opponents. It appears as if a good percentage of people are gong to vote a split ballot. Trump for president and a Dem for Senator. As far as the House goes, that may be a very different story. I think the Dems need to work at appealing to voters for Senate candidates at this point since they've pretty much helped destroy any chance that Biden had. Yes. I blame the Dems of this. Maybe Biden screwed up the debate, but the Dems didn't help by their constant criticism of him.

I also saw a pundit say that when she asked people who would be good to replace Biden, none of them had a clue, but most weren't thrilled with Harris. I'm fine with her, but I'll vote for any Dem. I just don't see how she will win in the small number of states that will determine the outcome of this election. "People hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest". That line has a lot of truth in it, especially now.

How many times does Whitmer have to say she doesn't want to run, at least not in 2024? Most people in this country don't even know who she is. We forget that most of us are political/news junkies. Most people aren't.

Polls? Remember all the polls that predicted Hillary was going to win? How did that work out? I don't believe polls. I don't answer them myself and I'm sure I'm not the only one. It's all about turnout. I personally know some Trump supporters who never vote, so that's a good thing. Of course, there are probably some who support Biden who never vote either. Which group is bigger? Republicans are like sheep so they unite. Democrats are like cats. You can't herd the cats.
 
BH said:
What if Biden agrees to drop out saying it is more important Trump loses than he wins and becomes dictator.

To show the seriousness of the situation Harris runs on the presidential ticket either as the presidential candidate or vice presidential candidate and the Democrats nominate the other person, an anti Trump Republican, as a unity party candidate like Lincoln did in 1864.
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Harris couldn't sit in the backseat to a new presidential candidate. It's either her stepping up or she publicly stating she doesn't want to.
If keeping Trump and his shield of Immunity out of office is the driving force, then Mark Kelly, naval aviator and space shuttle pilot is the best bet to beat Bone Spurs.
 
Copernicus said:
Elixir said:
There is a pre-packaged Democrat Prince in shining armor, waiting in the wings for his entrance, unsullied by the Republican defamation machine. When called by Central Casting, he will emerge fully formed on the world stage, ready to articulate all Trump’s weakness, corruption and stupidity with irresistible and devastating power, while concisely presenting a clear vision of a bright, beautiful, prosperous, attainable American future.

And will lose the electoral college by over 150 points.
Click to expand...

If so, then Biden would likely lose the electoral college by even more. If he does step down, the electoral map will likely remain the same for a while. The worst thing that Democrats could do would be to replace Biden with some white guy. If they feel they need a white guy, then Harris can pick such a running mate. It could even be Biden himself, although I think that would be a bad idea. I don't think that Biden is fit to campaign at this point.
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A few days ago electoral-vote.com floated a Harris/Shapiro ticket. Might be the right ticket. Biden is behind slightly in Pennsylvania and Shapiro likely would sew that up.
 
southernhybrid said:
I think we might as well accept that Trump will get a second term. The only positive is that a lot of Democrats running for the Senate in Trump states are ahead of their Republican opponents. It appears as if a good percentage of people are gong to vote a split ballot. Trump for president and a Dem for Senator. As far as the House goes, that may be a very different story. I think the Dems need to work at appealing to voters for Senate candidates at this point since they've pretty much helped destroy any chance that Biden had. Yes. I blame the Dems of this. Maybe Biden screwed up the debate, but the Dems didn't help by their constant criticism of him.

I also saw a pundit say that when she asked people who would be good to replace Biden, none of them had a clue, but most weren't thrilled with Harris. I'm fine with her, but I'll vote for any Dem. I just don't see how she will win in the small number of states that will determine the outcome of this election. "People hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest". That line has a lot of truth in it, especially now.

How many times does Whitmer have to say she doesn't want to run, at least not in 2024? Most people in this country don't even know who she is. We forget that most of us are political/news junkies. Most people aren't.

Polls? Remember all the polls that predicted Hillary was going to win? How did that work out? I don't believe polls. I don't answer them myself and I'm sure I'm not the only one. It's all about turnout. I personally know some Trump supporters who never vote, so that's a good thing. Of course, there are probably some who support Biden who never vote either. Which group is bigger? Republicans are like sheep so they unite. Democrats are like cats. You can't herd the cats.
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I think that we all tend to predict the future on the basis of our own experiences. If I lived in the South, even in a purple state like Georgia, I would likely agree with you that most people would be likely to split the ticket for Trump at the top and a local Democrat for legislative office. However, I live in Washington state, so my gut tells me the opposite--that more people are likely to split for Democrat at the top and a local Republican for legislative. It seems that there are a lot of Republicans--maybe 20% of them--who have serious misgivings about voting for Donald Trump. Harris would make the split ticket choice a lot easier from them than Biden would, given the state of his perceived mental decline. Any other choice than Harris at the top of the ticket would likely make the race even more unpredictable, because it will likely be over the objections of core Biden voters. OTOH, a woman of color on the top of the Democratic ticket will likely turn away some voters who would have voted for Biden.

Regardless of what our guts tell us, my head tells me that I just don't know. I fear that a Trump victory is more likely if Biden stays in the race and less likely if he leaves. There are others here who strongly disagree with me. I'll feel relieved when Biden bows out, but they may feel even more alarmed. It is still way too early--just mid July--to start taking polls too seriously, especially in swing states.
 
southernhybrid said:
Yes. I blame the Dems of this. Maybe Biden screwed up the debate, but the Dems didn't help by their constant criticism of him.
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There are virtues worth keeping, other than blind partisan loyalty. If we are not permitted to criticize our leaders when they err, we are not a democratic country no matter who "wins" the fanciest office in it.
 
pood said:
Copernicus said:
Elixir said:
There is a pre-packaged Democrat Prince in shining armor, waiting in the wings for his entrance, unsullied by the Republican defamation machine. When called by Central Casting, he will emerge fully formed on the world stage, ready to articulate all Trump’s weakness, corruption and stupidity with irresistible and devastating power, while concisely presenting a clear vision of a bright, beautiful, prosperous, attainable American future.

And will lose the electoral college by over 150 points.
Click to expand...

If so, then Biden would likely lose the electoral college by even more. If he does step down, the electoral map will likely remain the same for a while. The worst thing that Democrats could do would be to replace Biden with some white guy. If they feel they need a white guy, then Harris can pick such a running mate. It could even be Biden himself, although I think that would be a bad idea. I don't think that Biden is fit to campaign at this point.
Click to expand...

A few days ago electoral-vote.com floated a Harris/Shapiro ticket. Might be the right ticket. Biden is behind slightly in Pennsylvania and Shapiro likely would sew that up.
Click to expand...
A black woman and a Jew? Yeah, that'll work. :rolleyes:
 
Perhaps someone could clear up some things for me.
1. If Biden steps down does Harris automatically become the Democratic nominee?
2. If the answer to 1 is no then why was she ever made VP? I would have thought being VP meant you were considered suitable for the role of president or presidential nominee.
3. If the answer to 2 is no i.e. Harris is not automatically the nominee then what happens to her when the new heir presumptive is anointed? Does she stay as VP or go (hopefully?) quietly into the night?
 
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